Amateur Poker Association & Tour
Poker Forum => Strategy => Topic started by: Charlie44 on August 27, 2013, 14:17:57 PM
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Enjoyed the APAT weekend as usual. Thanks to organisers and casino staff and Congrats to winners.
Interested in comments about this hand which I played in the main event this year - I can"t remember exact stack/bet sizes but I think they are reasonably accurate as to make no difference to decision making.
Very experienced and very capable apater raises to 1000 ep on tough table. He normally plays solid values but is very capable of making plays a the right opportunity. My image is tight. We both got stacks of 18k - less than average with blinds 400/200 50 ante.
I decide to just call with AQo in the CO. I think the BB calls.
Board QJ44J. (no flush draws)
Villain bets 1500 (1/2 pot) flop, I call, BB folds. Bets 3k turn (1/2 pot) I call, and villain is all in on river (pot bet).
What do you think of my play to date ? What is villain"s value betting range here ? How often is this a bluff ? Should it be an easy fold ?
If anybody recognises the hand ( especially villain !) please feel free to correct any of my errors on stack bet sizing etc.
I will await responses before declaring my decision and thinking behind it.
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Very experienced and very capable apater raises to 1000 ep on tough table. He normally plays solid values but is very capable of making plays a the right opportunity. My image is tight. We both got stacks of 18k - less than average with blinds 400/200 50 ante.
I decide to just call with AQo in the CO. I think the BB calls.
Board QJ44J. (no flush draws)
Villain bets 1500 (1/2 pot) flop, I call, BB folds. Bets 3k turn (1/2 pot) I call, and villain is all in on river (pot bet).
What do you think of my play to date ? What is villain"s value betting range here ? How often is this a bluff ? Should it be an easy fold ?
If anybody recognises the hand ( especially villain !) please feel free to correct any of my errors on stack bet sizing etc.
I will await responses before declaring my decision and thinking behind it.
I raise pre 95% of the time in that spot. That changes the entire hand and the rest of the hand would have run out differently.
By not raising pre or post flop you have not forced him to define his hand and u have no more idea about what he has than when he initially opened pre flop.
Whatever u do on the river is pure guesswork. Though my experience of APAT's is when the bet really big on the river they generally have it.
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With a strong hand but one that plays poorly post flop and position on villain, I would be taking advantage of your tight image and re-raising pre here. I"m not sure if calling is particularly bad but I wouldn"t do it. Ready to be convinced though.
If you are convinced that villain is only opening top 10 from EP then you can fold this pre.
As played calling flop and turn are fine. River card is terrible for you as villain is pretty polarised here. He likely checks the turn a lot with marginal showdown holdings such as JK, JA, QK and QA but probably bets KK and AA as well as strong hands pre that are now bluffs (AK, TT) and of course his crushing hands (JJ, JQ)
River is a terrible card for him if he has KK and AA so they are more likely checks on the river
I am left with AK and TT vs JJ and JQ.
Balance in a few KK,AA and Jx that are overplayed with a few more draws that didn"t get there then this seems to be a call for me. If villain is capable of moves then he would be all over that river card with his bluffs. It is difficult to call a pot sized river bet with AQ there and villain would know this.
In short, Yes, enough bluffs to call it off IMO
Folding is far from terrible though to preserve stack etc. and readless I also fold.
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I really want to know the villain before I comment!
Don"t think pre can ever be bad - need more reads though. Not worried about making him define his hand either - if I"m raising then its just purely for value.
Based on info then would be calling river as played but so read dependent - tell me who it was.. please, am intruiged.
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I really want to know the villain before I comment!
Don"t think pre can ever be bad - need more reads though. Not worried about making him define his hand either - if I"m raising then its just purely for value.
Based on info then would be calling river as played but so read dependent - tell me who it was.. please, am intruiged.
Probably better he reveals himself (so to speak) if he wants !
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With a strong hand but one that plays poorly post flop and position on villain, I would be taking advantage of your tight image and re-raising pre here. I"m not sure if calling is particularly bad but I wouldn"t do it. Ready to be convinced though.
Thanks for the feedback.
I only called partly because I thought villain had a fairly tight range, but also because there was another dynamic at the table, which I had not mentioned. Two people in particular had been 3 betting and 4 betting light, one which was still to act - I was hoping for a squeeze, putting the villain in a difficult spot and happy to go heads up against squeezers range.
In hindsight I think this plan was probably flawed:
The villain had been at the able long enough to be aware of the dynamic and he might well be happy to 4 bet against squeezer with hands like 99, TT and AJ and I would probably have to fold, whereas if I had 3 bet he may well fold these hands pre, and I would win pot uncontested.
Even if villain folds I would probably need to 4 bet and commit myself with 45 bbs and when I am only called by a range I am not in good shape against.
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As played calling flop and turn are fine. River card is terrible for you as villain is pretty polarised here. He likely checks the turn a lot with marginal showdown holdings such as JK, JA, QK and QA but probably bets KK and AA as well as strong hands pre that are now bluffs (AK, TT) and of course his crushing hands (JJ, JQ)
River is a terrible card for him if he has KK and AA so they are more likely checks on the river
I am left with AK and TT vs JJ and JQ.
Balance in a few KK,AA and Jx that are overplayed with a few more draws that didn"t get there then this seems to be a call for me. If villain is capable of moves then he would be all over that river card with his bluffs. It is difficult to call a pot sized river bet with AQ there and villain would know this.
In short, Yes, enough bluffs to call it off IMO
Thanks for the feedback.
This is almost exactly my reasoning at the table and I called..... I"ll reveal the outcome later to avoid any results biased posts.
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Pre is fine and flatting is probably better than raising. As played its pretty meh but I may call it off hoping to see Ak unless i pick something up on him through the streets. Sort of depends whether you think villain will be betting AJ for value on the turn but you might also see AA/KK for value here, doubt he takes this line with KQ so Aq is likely to be his lowest value hand. His likely bluff hand is Ak and can"t think of many others so I don"t think folding would be terrible, especially as you should have more Jx hands in your range than he does.
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Enjoyed the APAT weekend as usual. Thanks to organisers and casino staff and Congrats to winners.
Interested in comments about this hand which I played in the main event this year - I can"t remember exact stack/bet sizes but I think they are reasonably accurate as to make no difference to decision making.
Very experienced and very capable apater raises to 1000 ep on tough table. He normally plays solid values but is very capable of making plays a the right opportunity. My image is tight. We both got stacks of 18k - less than average with blinds 400/200 50 ante.
I decide to just call with AQo in the CO. I think the BB calls.
Board QJ44J. (no flush draws)
Villain bets 1500 (1/2 pot) flop, I call, BB folds. Bets 3k turn (1/2 pot) I call, and villain is all in on river (pot bet).
What do you think of my play to date ? What is villain"s value betting range here ? How often is this a bluff ? Should it be an easy fold ?
If anybody recognises the hand ( especially villain !) please feel free to correct any of my errors on stack bet sizing etc.
I will await responses before declaring my decision and thinking behind it.
I am the "villain" in this hand. I cannot remember the amount bet on every street, but Mikes post looks about right. I wont say anything else at the moment, apart from the fact that Mike and myself have history from playing at the same local casino.
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Sort of depends whether you think villain will be betting AJ for value on the turn
Thanks for the feedback.
This is a good point. I don"t think villain would be betting AJ for value on the turn simply because he doesn"t think its beating much of my range after calling pre and on the flop.
especially as you should have more Jx hands in your range than he does.
After calling the turn I don"t think he believes I have many jacks in my range. He probably puts me on a small range consisting mainly of AQ,KQ,QJ. This means he could bet more hands for value including AA/KK but also means that I am less likely to call any bluffs.
So perhaps the question is whether he believes I will call a pot bet with top pair - If he thinks not it is more likely to be a bluff and if so it is more likely to be a value bet. Or is that twisted logic ?
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Enjoyed the APAT weekend as usual. Thanks to organisers and casino staff and Congrats to winners.
Interested in comments about this hand which I played in the main event this year - I can"t remember exact stack/bet sizes but I think they are reasonably accurate as to make no difference to decision making.
Very experienced and very capable apater raises to 1000 ep on tough table. He normally plays solid values but is very capable of making plays a the right opportunity. My image is tight. We both got stacks of 18k - less than average with blinds 400/200 50 ante.
I decide to just call with AQo in the CO. I think the BB calls.
Board QJ44J. (no flush draws)
Villain bets 1500 (1/2 pot) flop, I call, BB folds. Bets 3k turn (1/2 pot) I call, and villain is all in on river (pot bet).
What do you think of my play to date ? What is villain"s value betting range here ? How often is this a bluff ? Should it be an easy fold ?
If anybody recognises the hand ( especially villain !) please feel free to correct any of my errors on stack bet sizing etc.
I will await responses before declaring my decision and thinking behind it.
I am the "villain" in this hand. I cannot remember the amount bet on every street, but Mikes post looks about right. I wont say anything else at the moment, apart from the fact that Mike and myself have history from playing at the same local casino.
And for this reason, Im ooot
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Basing it on the stacks and amounts given I don"t mind your flat call per flop as I think you have room to do much play if you raise . Although you have 45 bigs your M is only just over 17. As you can see in the hand after three half pot bets from the villain you are all in. This is why I prefer to use M rather than BB to measure my stack. I don"t like your call on the turn though.
On each street i would be asking myself what am i beating and what am i loosing too? On the flop and turn I"m beating 99, TT, AK, AJ, KQ (maybe) and I"m loosing to AA, KK, JJ. I would be raising all in vs his turn bet. There is a nice 9650 in the pot already and a lot of cards he could be C betting, broadway draws etc turn should be a brick and no reason for him to not c bet again.
What were your thoughts behind just calling? IMO you are not really pot controlling as your stack is not big enough to acomplish that (hence your all in to call on river). If the call is to disguise your hand and slow play then we have done that very well but found a horrible unlucky river card and a tough spot. I wouldn"t be slow playing the turn often for this very reason.
Really don"t know what I"d do on the river here. Tank certainly
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So perhaps the question is whether he believes I will call a pot bet with top pair - If he thinks not it is more likely to be a bluff and if so it is more likely to be a value bet. Or is that twisted logic ?
no its not twisted logic, if you think he is putting you on a hand, then the real question to ask is,""what does he think I have"" rather than thinking about his bluff and value ranges...
also add in any read/clue/logic like - what does my opponent think i"m doing...
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With a strong hand but one that plays poorly post flop and position on villain, I would be taking advantage of your tight image and re-raising pre here. I"m not sure if calling is particularly bad but I wouldn"t do it. Ready to be convinced though.
Thanks for the feedback.
I only called partly because I thought villain had a fairly tight range, but also because there was another dynamic at the table, which I had not mentioned. Two people in particular had been 3 betting and 4 betting light, one which was still to act - I was hoping for a squeeze, putting the villain in a difficult spot and happy to go heads up against squeezers range.
In hindsight I think this plan was probably flawed:
The villain had been at the able long enough to be aware of the dynamic and he might well be happy to 4 bet against squeezer with hands like 99, TT and AJ and I would probably have to fold, whereas if I had 3 bet he may well fold these hands pre, and I would win pot uncontested.
Even if villain folds I would probably need to 4 bet and commit myself with 45 bbs and when I am only called by a range I am not in good shape against.
I think i may have been at this table and am one of the 3-4 betters lighter,
Based on you flatting with AQ because you are aware of villains opening range, u should assume that me or tom should also be aware and as such your hope for a squeeze is hopeful at best. The hands u suggest like 99 -1010 will almost certainly never be in my 3 betting range, as i dnt want to be 3b folding such value, especially when both villain and you are aware of our propensity to 3bet light and so be more than happy to fire back with a hand like AJ, AQ, KQ etc (as i believe u should)
to be cont...off to work
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The hands u suggest like 99 -1010 will almost certainly never be in my 3 betting range,
Chris - I appreciate your feedback.
Sorry perhaps I didn"t make myself clear, my original thinking at the table was that if the 3 bet lighter to my left (Tom ?) 3 bet, then it may force Darren to fold in an awkward spot and I would be happy to continue with Tom heads up. However I now think Darren is quite capable of 4 betting in that situation with TT,99, AJ and I would have to decide how to decide to proceed with my AQ probably for my tourney life. If had 3 bet myself I guess Tom gets out of the way and with my image Darren may well fold his TT,99, AJ holdings.
I think the plan was certainly flawed and I appreciate now that Tom would be unlikely to squeeze when myself and Darren had shown strength. The 3/4/5/6 ! bet dynamic was of course just between yourselves.
Really enjoyed the your confrontation with Tom , by the way, which was certainly not typical of an APAT table. I look forward to your further comments.
JM.
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On the flop and turn I"m beating 99, TT, AK, AJ, KQ (maybe) and I"m loosing to AA, KK, JJ. I would be raising all in vs his turn bet.
What were your thoughts behind just calling?
Many thanks for your feedback. It really made me think about what I am trying to achieve.
You may not have noticed but it was a pot bet on the river that put Darren (and almost me) all in rather than 1/2 pot bet. So by calling the turn I don"t think this commits me to the hand. This may have altered your comments.
Generally at this stage of the tourney I would be looking to accumulate chips by getting maximum value from a hand - either by losing the least chips to the hands that beat me or winning the most chips from hands that I am beating.
In my opinion by raising all in on the turn I may be doing the opposite -
The hands that are beating me are almost certainly calling and I lose the maximum. I know that in the hand he bet all in anyway on the river, but the river card was a good card for him to do that. A blank river and he probably bets 1/3 to 1/2 pot and I lose less.
Very few hands if any that I am beating will call an all in on the turn. When I call the turn if he does check the river I will have to check back, but there is a good chance he will bluff the river with TT,99, AK , and again I gain chips. I am of course risking that he will suck out on the river but I believe that there is more likely he will bluff his worse hands than hit his limited outs.
The only time he may call a raise on the turn with a worse hand is a draw KT or T9 but he would be wary of the possibility of drawing dead on a paired board and certainly would not have the odds to call a pot bet.
More than happy to further discuss if you don"t agree.
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calling down is way better than raising turn in my opinion. It just folds out all his bluffs and weaker hands and he snaps off everything that beats you.
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Ruling out all Jx combos on the reasonable assumption that Darren is more likely to check turn with those holdings, his river pure value range QQ,JJ, 2 combo"s and AA,KK, 6 combo"s is a small part of his total range.
From Darren"s point of view, if he can totally rule out Jx from our range then we can include the remaining other 6 combo"s of AQ in Darren"s value range.
Now we need to decide how likely it is that Darren barreled the turn with AK and TT-88
Based on a river range of...
AA-88,AKo-AQo,AKs-AQs,KQs and discounting AK, TT-88 because Darren will check those hands on the turn sometimes (say 50% for convenience).
I make it 34 combo"s of which 41% beat us, 24% chop and 35% are bluffs. Darren"s turn barrel frequency with air is the big variable here but the call/fold decision is close even if he 100% barrels those hands.
What a gross spot but I think folding is best.
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The hands u suggest like 99 -1010 will almost certainly never be in my 3 betting range,
Chris - I appreciate your feedback.
Sorry perhaps I didn"t make myself clear, my original thinking at the table was that if the 3 bet lighter to my left (Tom ?) 3 bet, then it may force Darren to fold in an awkward spot and I would be happy to continue with Tom heads up. However I now think Darren is quite capable of 4 betting in that situation with TT,99, AJ and I would have to decide how to decide to proceed with my AQ probably for my tourney life. If had 3 bet myself I guess Tom gets out of the way and with my image Darren may well fold his TT,99, AJ holdings.
Ha yes, it would help if i could read...
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I raise pre 95% of the time in that spot. That changes the entire hand and the rest of the hand would have run out differently.
By not raising pre or post flop you have not forced him to define his hand and u have no more idea about what he has than when he initially opened pre flop.
Thanks for your post. I can see the merits in doing this. Just out of interest would you always be folding to 4 bet pre, or if he calls 3 bet pre stacking off to innocent looking Axx or Qxx flops?
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Many thanks for your feedback. It really made me think about what I am trying to achieve.
You may not have noticed but it was a pot bet on the river that put Darren (and almost me) all in rather than 1/2 pot bet. So by calling the turn I don"t think this commits me to the hand. This may have altered your comments.
I didn"t think that you were pot committed as such, but by just calling on each street it"s led to a situation where it"s nearly all in to call. So it"s put you in a horrible spot. As pot control in my view was not an option here due to stack sizes and being a three way pot then I usually want to be the aggressor and define my hand as early possible. However his C bet on the flop into two people is strong on this board. Really awkward.
I like what you tried to do pre and its a shame the squeeze didn"t come.
Really eager to know what happened :)
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Really eager to know what happened :)
Patience !! ;)
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Wish I could give feedback anonymously....
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Wish I could give feedback anonymously....
Intruiging ;)
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Wish I could give feedback anonymously....
You could PM me. You know there"d be no leaks from here ! ;)
JM
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Wish I could give feedback anonymously....
That"ll help everyone ::)
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Many thanks to everybody who contributed to the debate on this hand, without feeling the need for anonymity (still not sure what that was about - maybe I"ll find out in time). It certainly helped in my continuing education in poker, in what I thought was a very interesting hand .
The hand that Darren showed down was ........ AA.
At the time I was amazed. I thought a pot bet after the Jack on the river meant he was very polarised. He either had a Jack or was bluffing with perhaps AK,TT. How wrong was I !
I assume he was confident that the majority of my holdings had a queen and that I"d call a pot bet with top pair. My game is clearly too predictable which I will have to work on.
Very well played Darren. Really felt I was levelled. Look forward to future hands between us.
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Wish I could give feedback anonymously....
Sorry that could of been clearer. That comment wasn"t really to do with that hand in particular, but i will say im a big fan of the river bet sizing.
My issue with people knowing anything i put forward is that they know who i am and i dont know who they are or if they read these threads. It can make them play even better against me in the future and i can def be exploited!
I love analysing and dissecting hands with friends and prob sometimes go into excessive detail. But the difference is i kno who iv"e spoken to and it has a big impact on how i play hands against them in the future. Thats when u start getting into levelling wars and things really get fun!
I hope that clears things up, at no point did i mean to imply i had anything negative to say on this hand
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Chris - many thanks for clearing this up.
I now fully understand your commments and fully respect your reasoning.
One thing I would say (slightly tongue in cheek) I am sure you feel an obligation to help in the educating less knowledgeable players ( including myself) and I know the community forum would benefit from hearing your views.
Perhaps it may be technically possible to allow posting of anonymous comments (administrators ?).
Or perhaps you will have to adapt like Doyle Brunson or Gus Hansen after writing their books :D