Amateur Poker Association & Tour
Poker Forum => Strategy => Topic started by: Roscopiko on October 06, 2008, 09:45:34 AM
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Ok folks help put my mind at rest here with the following hand.
Ladbrokes Irish Festival - 167 players remaining 83 paid.
Stack 60k blinds 1.5k/3k 300 ante
3rd to act raises to 9k (52k behind) folded to me in SB with JJ.
Been on this table only about 40 mins and villain has opened lots of pots with 3x raise and folded to reraises but not a single showdown of a hand he"s played.
BB has ~150k and played plenty and squeezed a few times.
What do you do here and why?
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is this live?
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Yes live game, also 1 hr blinds if that changes you mind any
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shove. You have < 10 orbits and are ahead of his range.
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Standard shove.
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Shhhhhhhhoooooooooooooooooooooovvve.
But I"m tight as, so what do I know. ;D
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Wow, all shoving here, i feel much better now.
I shoved to isolate the villain and reasoned that a reasonable reraise would commit me to the pot anyway.
He took an age to decide and called for his tournament with AQ. After a scary 234 rainbow flop, of course the A came on the turn and I was out.
Reason I posted it was that since then I think I"ve maybe misplayed it and could have either raise/fold to a shove and play with 10bb or if he calls shove on any non A board and he probably folds in this case.
Did I really need to risk a reasonable stack in this spot with JJ out of position?
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If the big blind had squeezed a few times I would have considered a stop and go.
(a) if you flat call and the BB squeezes you can reraise all in (I probably would have called if the AQ had shoved before you)
(b) if the big blind doesn"t squeeze then I"d shove on the flop as long as there were at most one overcard on there (it probably should be a shove whatever the flop is, but that"s my idea of caution).
I think the stop and go is underused - most people seem to opt for the all in preflop instead.
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If the big blind had squeezed a few times I would have considered a stop and go.
(a) if you flat call and the BB squeezes you can reraise all in (I probably would have called if the AQ had shoved before you)
(b) if the big blind doesn"t squeeze then I"d shove on the flop as long as there were at most one overcard on there (it probably should be a shove whatever the flop is, but that"s my idea of caution).
I think the stop and go is underused - most people seem to opt for the all in preflop instead.
Agreed, and I personally love the "stop and go" in the SB as your first to act post flop. Some will disagree but I ration this play to make it more effective especially at this stage in a tournemnt.
Also if the BB tries a squeeze you"ll be last to act preflop which adds value to this particlur scenario.
Are you still calling if the BB shoves and open raiser calls?
I think the stop and go is underused
I think your right regarding the general use of it but those that do utilise it can be known to overuse it. I would only consider it approx 5-10% of the time looking for spots like these to make it most effective.
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Shove for me. Especially with your stack size (and your opponents" stacks).
Stop and go works as well possibly. But the shove is the better option for me with JJ. Just under 70% of the time there"s going to be an overcard on the board - and against two opponents you"re likely to be behind and potentially "going" when you need to be "stopping".
Where"d you get the 70% from?
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"stop and go" from SB is a bit of an overused play IMO (from the harrington books) A lot of short stacks that use it are getting looked up more and more these days. Harrington recommends using it as a way to defend your blinds with a weak holding, against a late position or serial raiser.
With these blinds you want a double up here with JJ
The way I see it, when you "stop and go" here, you are minimising your win when you are ahead and losing the lot when you are behind
In this case, you are ahead of this players range so stick em in. Save the caution for the deeper stacks....
.....and more importantly save the "stop and go" for a worse hand in a similar spot.
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Shove for me. Especially with your stack size (and your opponents" stacks).
Stop and go works as well possibly. But the shove is the better option for me with JJ. Just under 70% of the time there"s going to be an overcard on the board - and against two opponents you"re likely to be behind and potentially "going" when you need to be "stopping".
Where"d you get the 70% from?
I thought it was around 50%
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22 - 100%
33 - 99%
44 - 99%
55 - 98%
66 - 96%
77 - 92%
88 - 97%
99 - 80%
TT - 70%
JJ - 57%
QQ - 41%
KK - 27%
AA - 0%
For the mathematicians.... http://www.math.sfu.ca/~alspach/comp34/
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"stop and go" from SB is a bit of an overused play IMO ...
Funny you should say that, as I don"t really see it being used that much (i.e. I don"t often see a blind call and shove on the flop).
Personally I think you have enough chips to not need the double up, the extra chips you get if this works is enough to give you some opportunity for further blind and ante stealing.
However this scenario in particular though I firstly want a squeeze from the big blind to then get all my chips in and hope for more than a double up.
Although I might have worded it back to front, the stop and go is my back up in case I don"t get the squeeze play.
I would expect the shove post flop to get respect because I don"t see stop and go"s that much. But if it was a rag board and they thought I had nothing, I"m in good shape. If it has a single high card then they are more likely to have missed than hit. If there was more than one - I"d be a bit stuck (gloss over that quickly).
In summary: I think this scenario in particular would be a smooth call - with plenty of opportunities to gain a fair amount of chips.
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"stop and go" from SB is a bit of an overused play IMO ...
Funny you should say that, as I don"t really see it being used that much (i.e. I don"t often see a blind call and shove on the flop).
Personally I think you have enough chips to not need the double up, the extra chips you get if this works is enough to give you some opportunity for further blind and ante stealing.
However this scenario in particular though I firstly want a squeeze from the big blind to then get all my chips in and hope for more than a double up.
Although I might have worded it back to front, the stop and go is my back up in case I don"t get the squeeze play.
I would expect the shove post flop to get respect because I don"t see stop and go"s that much. But if it was a rag board and they thought I had nothing, I"m in good shape. If it has a single high card then they are more likely to have missed than hit. If there was more than one - I"d be a bit stuck (gloss over that quickly).
In summary: I think this scenario in particular would be a smooth call - with plenty of opportunities to gain a fair amount of chips.
Nice response and that is the theory that was going through my mind as I exited the cardroom with not a cat in sight.
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"stop and go" from SB is a bit of an overused play IMO ...
Personally I think you have enough chips to not need the double up, the extra chips you get if this works is enough to give you some opportunity for further blind and ante stealing.
Your M is only 8. You need a double up and fast. This is a perfect spot.
The villan has been opening alot of pots so your way ahead of his range. If he folds you gain a quarter of your stack.
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Shove for me. Especially with your stack size (and your opponents" stacks).
Stop and go works as well possibly. But the shove is the better option for me with JJ. Just under 70% of the time there"s going to be an overcard on the board - and against two opponents you"re likely to be behind and potentially "going" when you need to be "stopping".
Where"d you get the 70% from?
Sorry, was thinking about TT. Was a bit busy in the office today.
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I'd play it similar to what's already been suggested:
Player A - 61k - 3rd to act - Hand range: wide
Player B - 60k - SB - Hand JJ
Player C - 150k - BB - Hand range: wide
Player A"s 9k (3xBB) bet - If he has done this quite often it's tempting to put him on a very wide range but I'm the suspicious type. If he has been getting re-raised and having to lay down I'd be thinking he'll be tightening up his range by now especially as he's getting short stacked and will be looking to get all his chips in soon.
Player C - to push or not to push - if I was last to act (despite what I'm thinking about his Player A's tightening range) I'd push. My M is only around 8 and this looks like a good spot.
With Player C still to act and with him having shown a liking for the squeeze play I'd revise this to flat calling A's bet. If C raises or pushes A will then define his hand for us. If he folds I'll play for my stack against C as his range in this spot should certainly be wide enough.
What if A pushes?
A has now defined his hand as one he is willing to risk his tournament life with by calling when he has previously shown a willingness to fold to the re-raise so I'm putting him on a range of any pair to 66, AK, AQ, AJ, A10, KQ (although I'm thinking he is tightening up he's starting range he may also be getting frustrated). If C has a completely random hand then I would be about 47% to win the hand against both players. If C's range is similar to A's then that would be around 41%
I'd be putting in my last 51k to a pot of 128k (excuse my maths if I've got this all wrong) so I'm still calling.
If C doesn't try the Squeeze play and only calls then I'll be facing a 31k pot with only a 51k stack......
How many overcards would anyone need on the flop to give up on the hand?
I'll admit to being a nit so any Ace and I'm done with the hand, any K or Q............ well now there's a decision....... I"m sure I read somewhere that you should avoid plays that will give you difficult decisions on later streets...... Oops :-[
How about anyone else if you took the line above - how would you deal with various flops?
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good question about a situation in a mtt in which many players now shove all in.You must find the right balance and the best measure of aggression.How to find it? This is a matter of taste, experience and skill.
Now that the shove all in is so common because of online poker , players ranges of calling them are much wider now and that it is now at the point where a re-raise or a stop/go play have more chance of success of taking down a pot,especially in your situation 15 to 22 big blinds.[yourself and your opponent] although you sacrifice the chance of doubling up you can still gain chips and increased chances of survival,a concept that many young aggressive players are failing to appreciate in multi table tournys.
I posted a similar question to yours on cgm poker [russian poker forum] and a certain Hasuling replied [good player, some of you might know him as Ivan Demidov]
and he favoured smooth call pre , pot bet on flop [favourable flop for Jacks] His reasoning being that if your opponent has over cards he will most likely fold them due to stack size,we got into the debate if the opponent was to go all in etc etc that ,that would be a read dependent call.
Just a quick one on the maths -
QQ chances of over cards on the flop - there are 50 unseen cards and we are choosing 3 from this 50 for the flop therefore there are c(50,3)=50!3!47!=19600 flops.How many of these would contain an ace or a king? the easiest way to work this out is to count the flops not containing them and subtract it from 19600.
Of the 50 unseen cards 42 remain disallowing aces and kings, so that works out like this - 42!3!39!=11480 flops with no ace or king
19600-11480=8120 flops will contain an ace or king
Therefore the probability of a over card on the flop is - 8120/19600=0.414 41%
in case anyone asks ! the exclamation mark means FACTORIAL
EG - the ! [factorial] of 3 would look like without the exclamation mark 1x2x3=6
just out of intrest the factorial of 50 unseen cards 50! is = 30414093201713378043612608166064768844377641568960512000000000000
oh and
22 - 100%
33 - 99%
44 - 99%
55 - 98%
66 - 96%
77 - 92%
88 - 97%
99 - 80%
TT - 70%
JJ - 57%
QQ - 41%
KK - 27%
AA - 0%
For the mathematicians.... http://www.math.sfu.ca/~alspach/comp34/
kk wrong its 22%
99 is 79%
88 is 86%
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Thanks noble1..... but now my head hurts ;)
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I remember a similar hand involving me and Gimac.
I cant remember the stacks/blinds but the blinds were big and he was short stacked (M<10). He had 1010 in the SB I had AQ in MP.
I raised 3x BB, he smoothed and led out on a Q hi flop. I put him in, but his call and lead out had him pot committed, so he reluctantly called.
I didn"t speak to him about the hand, but I believe he was using similar thinking, trying to avoid the coinflip and using a cautious approach to win the hand but at the same time, fully prepared to go all the way.
I guess you could call this play the "delayed coin-flip" where the delay can give you more chances to win the hand.
He was unlucky that I hit, because most of the time i miss here and fold to his pot sized lead out.
I will certainly try this move in future, not all the time, but thanks to the comments in this thread, will certainly add it to my arsenal.
Oh...nearly forgot....GiMac rivered a 10 to double up off me, which is of course the other way to win the hand ;D
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Which reminds me, Happy Birthday Gordon !!!!!!!
Many happy returns for your BIG day.