Amateur Poker Association & Tour
Poker Forum => Strategy => Topic started by: noble1 on December 31, 2008, 12:27:24 PM
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I was reading up on some past mtts when i came across this hand on a final table 4 handed which i thought was interesting.
It is a high buy in,4 runners left all pros..
blinds - 150,000/300,000
PRO1 - 9 million in chips
PRO2 - 8.9 million in chips
pro2 is on the button and raises to 1 million with ah qc
pro1 in the big blind calls
the flop is - 5d 9c :2d:
pro1 checks
pro2 checks
the turn is - 5d 9c :2d: 7c
pro1 bets 1 million
pro2 calls
the river is - 5d 9c :2d: 7c qd
pro1 checks
pro2 ??????
what should pro2 do and why?
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Fold!
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Bet. 2 million. For value.
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check.if u do have the best hand you have increased yr stack by almost 25%. if u bet and get reraised what u gonna do then? mind u i,m crap so probably totally wrong
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Be gentle i"m not the greatest Strategist :) :-\
I would Check behind!
the reason for this is that the pot is already quite Large and i dont wanna have to comit myself to calling an all in check raise on the end to a draw that could have got there!
Not having any reads on the BB to go on - if i was in that spot (the BB four handed) i"d be calling a lot of button raises with hands like 67/78/89 suited.
The BB Then could have the flush/straight draw on the flop and then the 7 comes on the turn which hits the Straight draws either by completing it or pairing it, so could have a lot of outs to hit hence the call of 1mil on the turn as they are getting more than 3/1 on the call.
The flush comes - Check again - Very passive - Suspicious!
So check behind - hope his draw didnt get there and save yourself a tough decison on the End! ;D
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I presume we are assuming he hit the flush, if that is the case I agree with Dan, as he will probably get a call for a further 1 mill. What did he call the pre flop raise with if not two suited cards? Possibly a weakish ace or a small pair, he may have hit top pair top kicker, but doubtful as he should have bet the flop, he could have trips 5s or 2s, and decided to slow play them, in which case he would probs still bet for value. I will stick my neck out and say he has 9 10 diamonds!!
I am ususally way out with Noble"s quizzes, is this going to a new 2009? ;)
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This is tough because I have no idea how Pro1 plays (apart from v well!!) and how pro1 perceives Pro2. I am struggling to put Pro1 on an accurate range given he called a big preflop raise OOP and is a good player. I feel inclined that he could be disguising a monster. How often has he 3 bet out of he blinds? How often has he called in the blinds? This lack of info and the betting (or lack of it - missed c bet on flop???) on the other streets is making my decision harder...
However....I"ll have a go...
In the past I"d probably have checked behind, but then again I do miss a lot of value on the river and as my new years resolution is to bet more on the river I"m going to look at betting here. The trouble is how much?? ???
The trouble with betting here is that there doesn"t seem to be many hands you beat that would call a river bet. In addition your hand is struggling against the check raise on the river. However you are now beating most pocket pairs that haven"t made trips and his betting pattern does not neccessarily mean a flush.
In addition a 2/3 to 3/4 pot bet commits most of your stack while a thin 1/4 to 1/3 pot bet could be seen as weak and may get reraised for the hell of it. having said that the thin value bet may get called by a worse hand and if it is raised you can get out of there relatively cheap.
So, I"ll go for bet 1.5 million.....
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ok pretty much 50/50 on check or bet which was the opinion of some pros that analyzed this hand afterwards.
Here is the river card and the action,what would you do now if your PRO2..?
I was reading up on some past mtts when i came across this hand on a final table 4 handed which i thought was interesting.
It is a high buy in,4 runners left all pros..
blinds - 150,000/300,000
PRO1 - 9 million in chips
PRO2 - 8.9 million in chips
pro2 is on the button and raises to 1 million with ah qc
pro1 in the big blind calls
the flop is - 5d 9c :2d:
pro1 checks
pro2 checks
the turn is - 5d 9c :2d: 7c
pro1 bets 1 million
pro2 calls
the river is - 5d 9c :2d: 7c qd
pro1 checks
pro2 ??????
what should pro2 do and why?
the river is - 5d 9c :2d: 7c qd
pro1 checks
pro2 bets 2 million
pro1 goes all in
what does pro2 do now? he has 6.9 million left..
ps
Swinebag22 tough decision now :)
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Well i put him on a flush, so its a call, trips its a call, otherwise a fold i think.
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you say pro2 fold mikey yes?
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I"d Fold - See my reasons for above -
There is not much you can beat, and should have checked behind!
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Oh ******** I haven"t read this too well, I have been playing it from the other guys point of view, shouldn"t try and work and contibute to the forum at the same time.
Right pro 2 should have checked behind, a bet here is only going to get called if he is behind. The fact that he now gets massively re raised may make him feel that pro 1 is bluffing, but it would be a hero call with 6.9 mill left. So he should really fold. So that means he probs called at pro 1 shows pair of nines!
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lol love the colourful language mikey :)
working? omg hope you make up for it and get snozzled tonight ;D
i"ll wait for swinebag and post the result of what happened..
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Thanks for waitng noble1
With the lack of a decent read...I"ll fold here.
I suppose you have to call though given that you are betting believing you have the best hand and despite the shove may still have enough times to justify the call.
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surely pro 2 only has 4.9 million now
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no pro2 had 8.9million pre raised 1 mil and has called 1mil
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Fold!
*ahem* as mentioned early!!! erh fold......?
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ok pretty much 50/50 on check or bet which was the opinion of some pros that analyzed this hand afterwards.
Here is the river card and the action,what would you do now if your PRO2..?
I was reading up on some past mtts when i came across this hand on a final table 4 handed which i thought was interesting.
It is a high buy in,4 runners left all pros..
blinds - 150,000/300,000
PRO1 - 9 million in chips
PRO2 - 8.9 million in chips
pro2 is on the button and raises to 1 million with ah qc
pro1 in the big blind calls
the flop is - 5d 9c :2d:
pro1 checks
pro2 checks
the turn is - 5d 9c :2d: 7c
pro1 bets 1 million
pro2 calls
the river is - 5d 9c :2d: 7c qd
pro1 checks
pro2 ??????
what should pro2 do and why?
the river is - 5d 9c :2d: 7c qd
pro1 checks
pro2 bets 2 million
pro1 goes all in
what does pro2 do now? he has 6.9 million left..
ps
Swinebag22 tough decision now :)
the actual hand happened in the 2006 wpt world championship...
the players were pro1 - Joe Bartholdi pro2 - Claus Neilsen went on to call the all in and lost finishing in 4th place.
Roland de Wolfe was also playing and finished 3rd for over 1 million dollars,Joe Bartholdi actually went on to win $3,800,000 and the title.
final hands
pro1 - kd td
pro2 - ah qc
Roland de Wolfe analysis -
""I do no not think Claus did anything wrong in value betting the river,he had to see if joe was bluffing or not,but when joe re-raised all in i would of decided to fold"".
Mike Sexton analysis - [this one i prefer,shows Mike has thought about it imo]
""Calling Joes bet on the turn is where Claus made the real mistake.He only had AQ but called a 1 million bet with a 9-7-5-2 board with 2 suits.
Although he correctly suspected larcency by Joe , what was Claus going to do if the river was not an ace or a queen? Is he prepared to call his money off with ace high? In my opinion he should of folded the turn,i am also not crazy about Claus betting the river,if he had stepped back to analyze things a little there was a possible straight and flush draw on the board.What could by betting the river could joe have that will pay Claus off and not beat a pair of queens? I think Claus should
of folded when Joe bet the turn.""
to be honest i do not blame him calling the turn,but personally i would of checked the river when i first read this hand..
Shows though how differently we think about these situations..
happy new year everyone..
regards
noble
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playing as pro 2 i"d have bet around 1mill to 1.5 on the flop instead of a check especially as pre flop raiser
on the turn, with no bet on the flop i"d have bet half the pot, if im called again then im worried when the queen diamond river card comes and happily check behind to what i feel im behind
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I"m with Roland.
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playing as pro 2 i"d have bet around 1mill to 1.5 on the flop instead of a check especially as pre flop raiser
on the turn, with no bet on the flop i"d have bet half the pot, if im called again then im worried when the queen diamond river card comes and happily check behind to what i feel im behind
what do you if pro1 check raises his flush draw on flop longshanks?
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check raise on the flop is difficult
then i think hard about it and work out the best thing to do and probably fold as im still only ace high and still have a decent stack to play with
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pretty much what i"d do without reads or the history that has happened between the two.
When you look at it, a basic continuation bet on the flop met of saved claus a few chips :)