Poker Forum => Strategy => Topic started by: treydj on June 09, 2009, 10:34:06 AM
Title: whats your move?
Post by: treydj on June 09, 2009, 10:34:06 AM
hi all,
this hand occured last night, read on the guy is that he is reasonably solid - hasnt showed down anything too weird. i had raised the previous 2 hands and this was my 3rd button raise on the bounce. we had all made the money at this stage.
thoughts please - then the reveal.
Table 250 - 500/1000 Ante 125 - No Limit Hold'em - 19:25:39 ET - 2009/06/08 Seat 1: leebo438 (41,137) Seat 2: GaIa86 (52,016) Seat 3: SpeckVIP (14,000) Seat 4: totalpants (28,446) Seat 5: kinderchiu (42,604) Seat 6: VANO777 (16,786) leebo438 antes 125 GaIa86 antes 125 SpeckVIP antes 125 totalpants antes 125 kinderchiu antes 125 VANO777 antes 125 kinderchiu posts the small blind of 500 VANO777 posts the big blind of 1,000 The button is in seat #4 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to totalpants [Jc Ad] leebo438 folds GaIa86 folds SpeckVIP folds totalpants raises to 2,557 kinderchiu folds VANO777 raises to 16,661, and is all in
Title: Re: whats your move?
Post by: Mikeyboy9361 on June 09, 2009, 10:55:02 AM
Well its an easy one to get away from, admittedly he may think you are "at it" as this is your 3rd button raise, and he is making a stand with any two, and you do have a decent starting hand, but you"ve only committed 2500 chips, and you will still have approx 26k behind. So for me its an easy fold and wait for a better spot to get your chips in first.
Title: Re: whats your move?
Post by: deanp27 on June 09, 2009, 10:58:12 AM
i don"t often raise/fold AJ from the button - and no reason to do so here. Unless you have no reason to believe he is getting fed up of you rasing from the button.
fwiw i probably call with a10 too
Title: Re: whats your move?
Post by: mal666 on June 09, 2009, 11:15:02 AM
good work so far now finish the job and call
Title: Re: whats your move?
Post by: Roscopiko on June 09, 2009, 11:54:35 AM
insta fold for me
Title: Re: whats your move?
Post by: Eck on June 09, 2009, 12:12:23 PM
Title: Re: whats your move?
Post by: Honeybadg on June 09, 2009, 12:15:10 PM
What is the prize structure?
How much edge do you feel you have over this player and other players left?
Opponent could have anything - call/fold depends on the above.
L
Title: Re: whats your move?
Post by: Marty719 on June 09, 2009, 13:27:53 PM
This is def a call a large % of the time!! His range is very wide in this spot and includes a lot of hands that u have dominated imo. If u win this hand then u r putting urself in a very good spot to go ahead and get a big finish in the tourney, and if u lose it...m"eh...u still have 12bb"s which is enough to battle back and grind up!!
Title: Re: whats your move?
Post by: jbworldwide on June 09, 2009, 13:38:51 PM
I reckon he has either a pair up to QQ or any Ace to shove here, if you say he is pretty solid.
I think at best you are flipping.
how much gamble do you have? I would def tank this and think about how he has played before, but probably end up calling because I am a donk like that 8)
Title: Re: whats your move?
Post by: deanp27 on June 09, 2009, 13:52:49 PM
can those who are insta-folding please assign some ranges to villain?
Title: Re: whats your move?
Post by: AMRN on June 09, 2009, 14:14:13 PM
can those who are insta-folding please assign some ranges to villain?
Agree range is wide, but that range does include a fair few hands that are either marginally ahead or have you dominated. AJ is a reasonable hand to be shoving with - not sure I would want to be calling with it in this spot whilst still holding a decent stack though. I"m not in the insta-fold category here, but I"m not in the insta-call category either..... I think the situation varies dependant on what the money ladder looks like and where we are currently sat.
Title: Re: whats your move?
Post by: Mikeyboy9361 on June 09, 2009, 14:22:09 PM
I"m not an insta fold, but I think I would think and fold. He is "reasonably solid" not done anything "weird". So you have to put him on something decent like any pair up to Qs, or a biggish Ace. For some reason I assumed this was the FT, and I wouldn"t coin flip on the FT if I had this stack, depending on where we are in the tourney then I may call.
Title: Re: whats your move?
Post by: Marty719 on June 09, 2009, 14:23:57 PM
If we are playing to give ourselves a good chance of winning then I think this is a def call. Despite how solid, he still needs to make a move reasonably soon and if u had been opening more than the others at the table I think his range is wider against u. I think it"s prob 22-AA, A8+, KJ+, and even some air if he is a thinking player that knows their is FE and thinks u have been opening light. Plus......people always suspect the button!
Title: Re: whats your move?
Post by: jbworldwide on June 09, 2009, 14:53:39 PM
If we are playing to give ourselves a good chance of winning then I think this is a def call. Despite how solid, he still needs to make a move reasonably soon and if u had been opening more than the others at the table I think his range is wider against u. I think it"s prob 22-AA, A8+, KJ+, and even some air if he is a thinking player that knows their is FE and thinks u have been opening light. Plus......people always respect the button!
FYP ;D
Title: Re: whats your move?
Post by: bigredders on June 09, 2009, 15:27:59 PM
depends entirely on what your mission is....to ladder or to win the tournament... u then have your answer
Title: Re: whats your move?
Post by: treydj on June 09, 2009, 15:53:32 PM
hey all, thanks for all the feedback.
there was a line of thought before i made the play.
i had been hammering this guy for a while, and thought at some stage he would get fed up and play back at me. i felt that if he had a premium he would make a scary 4 bet, so by him just pushing i felt that a large portion of the time my aj is ahead of his pushing range.
main problem was that i considered myself to have an edge on the players and my calling the bet would mean me surrendering this and leaving it down to the cards falling.
In the end I called - i had played the previous hands with him to set up this exact move - aj was more than good enough - it was my chance to win the tournament outright.
(93980939), Table 250 - 500/1000 Ante 125 - No Limit Hold'em - 19:25:39 ET - 2009/06/08 Seat 1: leebo438 (41,137) Seat 2: GaIa86 (52,016) Seat 3: SpeckVIP (14,000) Seat 4: totalpants (28,446) Seat 5: kinderchiu (42,604) Seat 6: VANO777 (16,786) leebo438 antes 125 GaIa86 antes 125 SpeckVIP antes 125 totalpants antes 125 kinderchiu antes 125 VANO777 antes 125 kinderchiu posts the small blind of 500 VANO777 posts the big blind of 1,000 The button is in seat #4 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to totalpants [Jc Ad] leebo438 folds GaIa86 folds SpeckVIP folds totalpants raises to 2,557 kinderchiu folds VANO777 raises to 16,661, and is all in totalpants calls 14,104 VANO777 shows [9h Th] totalpants shows [Jc Ad] *** FLOP *** [3h 8h 3s] *** TURN *** [3h 8h 3s] [9c] *** RIVER *** [3h 8h 3s 9c] [4c] VANO777 shows two pair, Nines and Threes totalpants shows a pair of Threes VANO777 wins the pot (34,572) with two pair, Nines and Threes *** SUMMARY *** Total pot 34,572 | Rake 0 Board: [3h 8h 3s 9c 4c] Seat 1: leebo438 folded before the Flop Seat 2: GaIa86 folded before the Flop Seat 3: SpeckVIP folded before the Flop Seat 4: totalpants (button) showed [Jc Ad] and lost with a pair of Threes Seat 5: kinderchiu (small blind) folded before the Flop Seat 6: VANO777 (big blind) showed [9h Th] and won (34,572) with two pair, Nines and Threes
pffffffff lol
Title: Re: whats your move?
Post by: AMRN on June 09, 2009, 16:22:28 PM
ignoring the results just posted for a minute, and considering the previous questions on ranges.... it got me thinking about what I would do if I was the big blind against an apparent serial raiser on the button..... and my range would be a lot wider than AJo.
At a minimum it would be any pair and any ace, plus KQ/KJ. If you run that through Pokerstove, AJo has 56% equity - therefore if we have read the range correctly, it"s a correct call. Given that you would have 12xBB left if you called and lost, it comes into the realm of "auto call".
My initial thought was that I would fold - but looking at stats against range, folding here would be weak.
Call. Crap outcome though, but correct play.
Title: Re: whats your move?
Post by: deanp27 on June 09, 2009, 17:04:01 PM
don"t worry about edge, your edge at later stages of touraments comes from having situations like this and making the correct call by looking at position and assigning ranges, you rarely get to play more than one or 2 streets post flop so you don"t get chance to "outplay" anyone.
good call, just ride the variance train that is tourament poker
Title: Re: whats your move?
Post by: mal666 on June 09, 2009, 17:43:54 PM
you just cant pass +ev spots like this
Title: Re: whats your move?
Post by: Eck on June 09, 2009, 20:14:33 PM
oh you lost, then its a pass then obv :o
Also can someone explain what this "edge" is that we keep saying we have?
Title: Re: whats your move?
Post by: WASP on June 09, 2009, 22:37:14 PM
Also can someone explain what this "edge" is that we keep saying we have?
Eck you haven"t got an edge, its built into you its your character, its means you are a little bit weerr and little bit warrr. In depth studies of the edge have proved that cockney geezers have the biggest edge, please see attached video explanation ;)
[youtube=425,350][/youtube]
Title: Re: whats your move?
Post by: Eck on June 09, 2009, 22:52:26 PM
Also can someone explain what this "edge" is that we keep saying we have?
Eck you haven"t got an edge, its built into you its your character, its means you are a little bit weerr and little bit warrr. In depth studies of the edge have proved that cockney geezers have the biggest edge, please see attached video explanation ;)
[youtube=425,350][/youtube]
TYTY now i know what i need to work on it will all be easier.
So how does it go? "I"m a little bit waaay, a little bit weee"????? **** looks like i"m screwed... :"(
Title: Re: whats your move?
Post by: Honeybadg on June 10, 2009, 10:25:16 AM
can those who are insta-folding please assign some ranges to villain?
If we are running the table and winning with a standard pot bet a high % of the time then imo there is no need to give away your strong position (ie having enough chips to bully the table) with a marginal hand like AJ in this spot.
Its true that as you continue to bully the table that the range of restealing hands does become wider but against a very tight player I would prefer to fold this spot where you will be either in really bad shape or flipping to maintain my chipstack. The flod also gives you some additional advantages in that it signals to the table that you will fold to a massive overbet, this means when people play back at you they are more likely to make overraises which makes the times you have a monster far more profitable.
I would expect a large percentage of the time this would be AJ+ or any pair and if you are picking up chips easily why flip here.
Title: Re: whats your move?
Post by: Honeybadg on June 10, 2009, 10:41:39 AM
there was a line of thought before i made the play.
i had been hammering this guy for a while, and thought at some stage he would get fed up and play back at me. i felt that if he had a premium he would make a scary 4 bet, so by him just pushing i felt that a large portion of the time my aj is ahead of his pushing range.
main problem was that i considered myself to have an edge on the players and my calling the bet would mean me surrendering this and leaving it down to the cards falling.
In the end I called - i had played the previous hands with him to set up this exact move - aj was more than good enough - it was my chance to win the tournament outright.
(93980939), Table 250 - 500/1000 Ante 125 - No Limit Hold'em - 19:25:39 ET - 2009/06/08 Seat 1: leebo438 (41,137) Seat 2: GaIa86 (52,016) Seat 3: SpeckVIP (14,000) Seat 4: totalpants (28,446) Seat 5: kinderchiu (42,604) Seat 6: VANO777 (16,786) leebo438 antes 125 GaIa86 antes 125 SpeckVIP antes 125 totalpants antes 125 kinderchiu antes 125 VANO777 antes 125 kinderchiu posts the small blind of 500 VANO777 posts the big blind of 1,000 The button is in seat #4 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to totalpants [Jc Ad] leebo438 folds GaIa86 folds SpeckVIP folds totalpants raises to 2,557 kinderchiu folds VANO777 raises to 16,661, and is all in totalpants calls 14,104 VANO777 shows [9h Th] totalpants shows [Jc Ad] *** FLOP *** [3h 8h 3s] *** TURN *** [3h 8h 3s] [9c] *** RIVER *** [3h 8h 3s 9c] [4c] VANO777 shows two pair, Nines and Threes totalpants shows a pair of Threes VANO777 wins the pot (34,572) with two pair, Nines and Threes *** SUMMARY *** Total pot 34,572 | Rake 0 Board: [3h 8h 3s 9c 4c] Seat 1: leebo438 folded before the Flop Seat 2: GaIa86 folded before the Flop Seat 3: SpeckVIP folded before the Flop Seat 4: totalpants (button) showed [Jc Ad] and lost with a pair of Threes Seat 5: kinderchiu (small blind) folded before the Flop Seat 6: VANO777 (big blind) showed [9h Th] and won (34,572) with two pair, Nines and Threes
pffffffff lol
What happened in the rest of the tournament?
L
Title: Re: whats your move?
Post by: Marty719 on June 10, 2009, 11:25:13 AM
can those who are insta-folding please assign some ranges to villain?
If we are running the table and winning with a standard pot bet a high % of the time then imo there is no need to give away your strong position (ie having enough chips to bully the table) with a marginal hand like AJ in this spot.
Its true that as you continue to bully the table that the range of restealing hands does become wider but against a very tight player I would prefer to fold this spot where you will be either in really bad shape or flipping to maintain my chipstack. The flod also gives you some additional advantages in that it signals to the table that you will fold to a massive overbet, this means when people play back at you they are more likely to make overraises which makes the times you have a monster far more profitable.
I would expect a large percentage of the time this would be AJ+ or any pair and if you are picking up chips easily why flip here.
The problem with this is - w/ these blinds, we are likely to not pick up a moster hand and have to continue to open lighter and ppl will feel they can come over the top of us more often. If gng for the win, AJ=call.
Title: Re: whats your move?
Post by: George2Loose on June 10, 2009, 21:17:34 PM
standard snap call
Title: Re: whats your move?
Post by: tonyj444 on June 30, 2009, 13:10:18 PM
Given that villains range should be reasonably wide I think a call is the correct play here primarily because of the history.
I would be interested in how low we think we can drop our calling requirements here though. To the people saying this is a snap-call - what do you do in this spot with AT/A9/KQ? How about a middling pair 66-99? Do you call as low as 22?