Amateur Poker Association & Tour
Poker Forum => Strategy => Topic started by: AMRN on November 23, 2009, 16:22:46 PM
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Appreciate views on a hand I played at Luton on Saturday please - I"m thinking I got myself in a hole needlessley, and thought my way into trouble... but would appreciate feedback.
Table is a ******* of a starting table with a who"s who of 3 APAT champions, 5 players from the Euro Team champs, and a recent $100k online winner. There were three players I didn"t know, and that I was happier playing pots with, although two were on my left and had position on me - this made my button highly valuable.
I was up to 18k early on, and matey on my left was down to around 8k. We"d clashed in a pot recently, and I had been able to move him off a huge hand on the flop. Since then he seemed a little tilty, and called every raise I made simply cos he wanted to play in hands with me (and I was happy with that!).
So the hand in question - blinds are 100/200 and the table folds round to my button and I open for 550 with jd 8d. Matey snap calls in the SB - BB folds.
Flop is :2d: 6h 7d pot is 1300
Matey leads for 500 - I take this to be either a feeler bet, or a stopper bet if he has a small bit of the flop. I certainly don"t think he"s value betting here, given that I had a really LAG image and he must know that I"m going to c-bet - therefore he is likely to check a strong hand almost all of the time here.
I raise to 1800 - the size of the pot. Matey snap shoves. I need to call approx 5800 to win approx 11k - pot odds in the region of 2:1 (the numbers and bet sizes are a little hazy, but in this ball park)
I talk to him a bit and get a real sense that he hates the fact that I haven"t folded - he clearly didn"t want a call. I don"t believe he has a made hand and also don"t believe he"s drawing to a flush (previously he had check/called when drawing).... I just couldn"t make sense of the betting, and put him on air/over cards, or something silly like A2 for bottom pair.
If I call and lose I still have around 9k. Win and I have 27k. If the dimes are live, I have the correct odds to call. Throw in the J and 8 as live cards, and I"m 60/40 favourite.
Would you call? If not, why not?
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Gng by ur reads its a 100% call. Esp seeing as ur J/8 mite b gd to hit. Blinds r still early enuf for a 9k stack to still b playable as well, buts lets face it - u run too good to miss this :)
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If I was you I would fold you will obv get done on the river..... :D
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Call all day long there i think,,as u said,, still 9k left if u miss,,plenty to do some damage with.
Was briefly at your table and if it was the guy to your immediate left i noticed during my short stay he was pretty free with his chips.
Im the guy who got payed with my set of kings and then ran to another table lol (seat 1).Was enjoying your table at the .time
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you really should know what you are going to do when you make the raise. Personally i call the flop lead as it is so small and you are certainly getting the right price to play the next street with position.
You are semi bluffing and his donk can mean a few things:
A weak lead with a semi decent hand, traditionally known as a feeler bet
an inducer bet with flopped set or similar strong hand, looking for a raise.
a draw wanting to set his own price, but then realising he can semi-rebluff with stacks sizes once you raise
given his preflop range is likely mid pairs, Ax, KT+, some suited connectors, i think his range is pretty strong vs your hand, made hands and bigger draws are more likely than smaller draws, weak top pairs and air.
i wouldn"t raise to fold in this spot personally but i would have just flatted the donk bet.
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With no info on the player or against an erratic player with a shorter stack, small-ball FTW, especially in position. With a shove after the donk-bet, I"d give him credit for a hand. If you can put him on AXd, trips or AA, KK with a Diamond in his hand what IYO would be the best play now?
Would I raise with a plan of calling off 9k (half my chips) at the 100/200 level with a J high flush draw? No
Now with 2:1 odds on the call, would I call off 5k more against a range of AXd, AA, KK, 77, 66, 22? Prob not.
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I"d have flat called on the flop to see what came. You have a huge drawing hand but keep the pot small so you don"t have to be out to these tough decisions. If turn bricks out then his bet size would determine if Im carrying on in the hand. Apat are relatively deep stack events and I"d rather lose 500 chips and a couple of BBs chasing the draw (with position) than just get it all in
if this was an online tourny where the starting stacks are alot smaller and less room to play I"d call the all in but in such a deep stack play I"d give up to his shove. His bet looks like a bet he wants called IMO. He probably has a high pair or maybe a set and your raise is giving him the chance to get it in thinking he"s gonna get more chips
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I flat the flop bet here too and see what happens on the turn. Miss anything that improves our hand and I"m happy to let this go if he fires out again on the turn.
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When he leads out for this "strange bet" on the flop, i would of just peeled one off for the turn, to either hit somthing or just float him. But to answer your question.....its a fairly easy call for me steve. Mathmatically its close, but i would call.
Would he lead out with flopped set? doubt it as he is more likely to check-raise rather than lead out. Would he hold an over pair? doubt it, seems like he may of repoped pre flop from the SB (especially depending on the fact he called quick) i think he would of taken a bit more time with QQ for example.
His possible hands here are 4-5 or 8-9 or maybe another flushdraw, and you are only in bad shape to 3 other flush draws. if he did happen to have 2 pair, or a set. Then you have 8 outs for the non pair flush which means you need 32% winning chance to call, and you had around 33-35% with what the pot is offering. A cash game player like Durrrr or Ziigmund would kill for this price :)
What happened in the end, did you call?
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What happened in the end, did you call?
I"ll leave it a bit longer before I answer.
Reason I didn"t flat call was that I didn"t want to show weakness - the way I had been playing so far in the tourney, a flat call would have exposed the weakness of my hand and I was sure to have been facing another bet on the turn... and would I then call again? Too fishy for me... I wanted to take the hand down at this point, and needed to put the pressure on the other guy. On reflection, my raise was too big as it meant I was unable to get away from the shove - I should have raised smaller to give me the folding option.
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calling is not always weakness
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You should have a plan before you raise. If you are raising in this spot, you should get it in imo.
Personally I would call here too.
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You should have a plan before you raise. If you are raising in this spot, you should get it in imo.
Personally I would call here too.
I made a crying call simply because the odds were right, and I would still have a playable 45xBB stack if I lost. He tabled qc ts !!! I had 15 outs and was a 60/40 favourite. The turn was a 5 to give me even more more outs, but the river bricked.
When I raised on the flop, I was kinda sure that he was going to fold to a decent raise - but you are right that I should have had a plan in place..... and then I would have realised that by sizing the raise way I did, I would never be able to fold to a shove. I should have raised much smaller and given myself the option to fold to a shove.
One of those times where I wish I could resist playing the button in an unopened pot!! lol
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Why do you want to take the small pot down on the flop? Take a bigger pot down on later streets imo.
You are heads up and have position with playable stacks, by checking here you not only control the pot size now but for the rest of the hand. You hand isn"t weak on this flop and there are so many scare cards you can represent if you have an atc image that floating here must be correct imo.
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You should have a plan before you raise. If you are raising in this spot, you should get it in imo.
Personally I would call here too.
I made a crying call simply because the odds were right, and I would still have a playable 45xBB stack if I lost. He tabled qc ts !!! I had 15 outs and was a 60/40 favourite. The turn was a 5 to give me even more more outs, but the river bricked.
When I raised on the flop, I was kinda sure that he was going to fold to a decent raise - but you are right that I should have had a plan in place..... and then I would have realised that by sizing the raise way I did, I would never be able to fold to a shove. I should have raised much smaller and given myself the option to fold to a shove.
One of those times where I wish I could resist playing the button in an unopened pot!! lol
meh rr flop ok ish if you fold to a 3bet all in then you are still deep enough to balance out your range [with what looks like semi-bluff raises that u have been seen/can fold which observant players may try to exploit later] with your sets,over pairs,2 pairs etc on 2 suited flops.. 2to1 with an jack FD and a decent stack behind i can find a fold here,but not with a nut flush draw if we had it in this situation and reads..
Floating to steal/take the pot on the turn or river is an option and again you can balance out later if the hand is shown down..
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Steve you had all those outs and couldnt even hit a barn door? I know the feeling by the way. Its happened to me quite a bit on the cash tables. I flop a open-ended straight flush draw, and still miss......
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you need 32% winning chance to call, and you had around 33-35% with what the pot is offering.
It"s a tournament, not a cash game.
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I know this of course. Havent you read anything by Gus hansen? He is a great tourny player, there are lots of examples like this in his aussie millions book, and he ironically, is a really really really really bad cash game player....
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Mmmmm, friendly! So does Gus recommend getting half our stack in on the flop with the belief that we have 9 outs while not knowing if our hand is good if we do hit?
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generally you should make +EV decisions in tournaments just the same as you would in a cash game. However it is fine to turn down small edges in high variance spots if you want to play a lower variance game, which alot of players do in live tournaments as opposed to online.
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In the Aussie millions, within 6-7 hands delt, he had lost half of his stack. In one episdoe of PAD, he lost his whole stack on the 5th hand "i had a pair" were his exact words as he exited. He is someone who is either gonna get chipped up early and make a good run, or go bust trying and then simply move onto the next tourney. This is why he gets so many walks in tourneys, because people are to scared to play against him, because they cant put him on a hand.
But to answer your question MintTrav, i think it all depends on how deep you are in the situation at hand, weather you have a competetive stack to be able to out play or bluff opponents (like 3 barrel bluffs etc). Ive noticed recently that, (and this is in my opion) having 100BBs is no way deep enough to play creative poker. So i guess in steves case he should of been willing to gamble.
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One mistake people make in tournaments is this idea of a "tournament life"
Generally speaking, but not always, decisions are either +EV or not. And you should be taking the EV route whether you"re risking your "tournament life" or not.
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OK, on a similar theme - here"s a hand I managed to mangle in Luton.
Fairly early on, definitely one of the first two levels. Got a player two to my right who is very aggressive (played in the German team), and he seems to be enjoying himself.
I"m the BB with ad kd. Foggy is UTG+1 and puts in a standard raise. the German calls, and I decide to flat call as well (I usually raise here with AK, but like to vary things).
Flop is qd jd 7c. That"s not an altogether bad flop for me :D.
I lead out for about pot (think it was a bet of 400). Foggy raises to 1,200. The German then re-raises to 2,800.
What do you do?
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OK, on a similar theme - here"s a hand I managed to mangle in Luton.
Fairly early on, definitely one of the first two levels. Got a player two to my right who is very aggressive (played in the German team), and he seems to be enjoying himself.
I"m the BB with ad kd. Foggy is UTG+1 and puts in a standard raise. the German calls, and I decide to flat call as well (I usually raise here with AK, but like to vary things).
Flop is qd jd 7c. That"s not an altogether bad flop for me :D.
I lead out for about pot (think it was a bet of 400). Foggy raises to 1,200. The German then re-raises to 2,800.
What do you do?
hate to admit it, but i think i probably spew all my chips here
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How many chips do u have?
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call pre is 100% best play imo
i wouldn"t lead the flop though, i would check raise but job done anyway - arrrrr innnn
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How many chips do u have?
Maybe 9,000. German has me covered, and Foggy is somewhere between the two.
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Insta ship - u still have fold equity here. Im bout 50/50 pre but I guess u know ur gna have to play outa position. Tbh - I think if u lead out here u have to be prepared to get it in. B/f"n this spot wud suck!
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Once heard a comment from phill gordon. he says if you flop a monster draw, look to play a massive pot as soon as possible. because if you hit a diamond on the turn, it gives your opponent enough oportunity to escape out of harms way especially if he has somthing like 2 pair. But if the pot is bigger on the flop, you will be able to play for stacks on a later street.
The worst case secaniro if you play a big pot with a monster draw like this, he would be willing to go all the way with a set, and you have around 12 outs. So never really a big underdog at worst anyway.
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I don"t particularly like it, but with a guaranteed 12 outs I probably shove here. Don"t think i lead out on the flop though but it certainly isn"t dreadful
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I don"t particularly like it, but with a guaranteed 12 outs I probably shove here. Don"t think i lead out on the flop though but it certainly isn"t dreadful
It"s not a guaranteed 12 outs though is it. If he has a set, we have lost a couple of outs to house draws.
Best chance for us is if he holds AA/KK - makes sure all 12 outs are live.
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I don"t particularly like it, but with a guaranteed 12 outs I probably shove here. Don"t think i lead out on the flop though but it certainly isn"t dreadful
It"s not a guaranteed 12 outs though is it. If he has a set, we have lost a couple of outs to house draws.
Best chance for us is if he holds AA/KK - makes sure all 12 outs are live.
basically what AMRN is saying we are 33.8% versus a set - not a nice situation kinboshi,the line u took and the action behind suggests strongly at least one player having a set [even more so with card removal - AKdd] and now you have pretty much zero fold equity imo and a nice 9000 ish stack behind in what looks like level 2 of the blinds?
i"ll be interested how others would proceed here.
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We have 1 to a royal. How can we possibly fold?
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Love the lead out.
Shove now
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OK, on a similar theme - here"s a hand I managed to mangle in Luton.
Fairly early on, definitely one of the first two levels. Got a player two to my right who is very aggressive (played in the German team), and he seems to be enjoying himself.
I"m the BB with ad kd. Foggy is UTG+1 and puts in a standard raise. the German calls, and I decide to flat call as well (I usually raise here with AK, but like to vary things).
Flop is qd jd 7c. That"s not an altogether bad flop for me :D.
I lead out for about pot (think it was a bet of 400). Foggy raises to 1,200. The German then re-raises to 2,800.
What do you do?
the only info i have to go by is that zeee german is aggressive and the blinds are i"m guessing 25/50 with boshi having around 9000 chips behind after leading out for 400 into a 400 pot,he sees rr to 1200 [pot 2000] and a 3bet to 2800 [pot 4800] if all stacks were of similar size pre if boshi shoves 9000 more and only gets 1 caller which will be most likely a set then he stands to gain 13800 chips which is -ev.... at best if we 4bet shove then we have to hope foggy and zeee german both have sets or a set and 2 pair for both to call for our shove to be just about break even ev wise , and all this when boshi is about 180bb"s deep!!! is there a chance we are against an over pair or two [AA,KK] maybe but with boshi holding blockers for both and a blocker for AQ and the way the action went post,does zeee german 3bet worse than 2 pair? if foggy has an over pair or TPTK then its a pretty easy fold given the action plus also how big the effective stacks are if boshi 4bet shoves.
There are very few scenarios in our favour so pretty much imo 4bet shoving is marginal at best so its not an option for me but this would give me a headache because i prefer to call [cant find a fold]but if foggy 4bets or goes all in then its a call [priced myself in by only calling,but only just against a set , hopefully but slim, maybe up against worse] even if zeee german does not continue,if foggy just calls and the turn bricks i can fold to any heavy action,if a diamond comes then i"ll bet for value,if the magical Td comes then all options are open ;D i see more value in calling,and if foggy only calls and the turn goes tits up, we still have around 132bb"s to soldier on with.
anyone want to work out maths wise if shoving flop is +cEV?
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I think flatting the 2800 is appaulingly awful!! Means we can get pushed off on the turn, or an action killer mite come down. Def the worst decision imo!!
If the German player is creative aggro then I also believe we do have some f/e, as foggy cannot cont w/ an overpair w/ the action.
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i,m hoping some1 will give the maths a crack to see if shoving is +cEV even if we think zeee agg german is making a move, but how often do we think % wise to make shove profitable,,also we still have the problem of foggy and our blockers making his range the way the action has gone more in favour of 2 pair , set hands rather than over pairs and TPTK.
JUST 1 TIME :) i"d like to see some logic/reasoning or some maths written alongside the words SHOVE as to why it is considered the optimum move when we are so deep in chips. :-\
sorry if i"m pushing but it is an interesting hand/situation imo.
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sigh ok some maths :(
i will count all stacks for the 3 players pre as 9000 ...
pot - 4800
i"ll give foggy a range of - AcAh, AcAs, AhAs, KcKh, KcKs, KhKs, QcQh, QcQs, QhQs, JcJh, JcJs, JhJs, 7d7h, 7d7s, 7h7s, AcQc, AhQh, AsQs, QcJc, QhJh, QsJs, Td9d, AcQh, AcQs, AhQc, AhQs, AsQc, AsQh, QcJh, QcJs, QhJc, QhJs, QsJc, QsJh
zeee germans range after seeing kinboshi pot and foggy reraise imo is more 2 pairs or sets - QcQh, QcQs, QhQs, JcJh, JcJs, JhJs, 7d7h, 7d7s, 7h7s,QcJc, QhJh, QsJs, QcJh, QcJs, QhJc, QhJs, QsJc, QsJh
as i dont know if we get 1 or 2 callers then i"ll just work out for 1 caller being the german AKdd versus potentially with a sets or 2 pair which kinboshi is 39% to win against..
pot 4800
kinboshi 8600 left
german 6200 left
using my maths i work it out as 19600 chips at risk which we stand to win 39% of the time if called,obv we lose 8600 if we dont win.
our required fold equity is thus 956/[956+4800] 16.6%
if we think the german calls 2 pair or better and this is 100% of his range then shoving is not good here.I give zeee aggressive german a strong range because he has just seen pot bet then reraise on a juicy co-ordinated flop and zeee german has 3bet quite small,after seeing pot bet then reraise i tend to favour that he would flat his drawing/1 pair hands at best.
http://dailyvariance.com/fe-calculator.php - have a play with it..
things get interesting if foggy is the caller as the fold equity for him is 6.5% and without much info to go by and giving him a broad range to reraise with and thinking he might fold over pairs etc then yes shoving is good if we were to think zeee german will fold.But all in all with boshis AKdd blockers on this texture flop,am i the only one who thinks this favours the villains ranges being strong? i must be getting nitty ;D
can anyone put foggy or zeee german on a range because they have played them before?
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fwiw I dnt think either r calling with overpairs in this spot.
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fwiw I dnt think either r calling with overpairs in this spot.
what info u basing that on marty? also thats only 6 combos which leaves 18 combos that fit the action of either player on the flop based on kinboshis lead and his blockers, i still think we get called by 2 pair or better about 85% of the time here.
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Well if ur Foggy how do u put ur ££ in w/ kk or aa in this spot?!
The German is slightly more likely to call off but Kinboshi"s hand looks so strong! What do they think his 3-bet shove range is in this spot?? Surely QQ JJ 77 QJ AdKd is Kinboshis range here?
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exactly even if the german is classed agg . after seeing a pot bet and rr post i dont think he would rr so small total air here.
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With no info on the player or against an erratic player with a shorter stack, small-ball FTW, especially in position. With a shove after the donk-bet, I"d give him credit for a hand. If you can put him on AXd, trips or AA, KK with a Diamond in his hand what IYO would be the best play now?
id have to agree with luckybugur here and id put him on a hand, dont forget its early stage of the tournament, the snap call pre flop, your heads up no antes to be stealing etc it just doesnt feel right, you feel you have a good read, you have plenty of outs and your getting the odds to call but your only jack high, i wouldnt be a hero here in this hand id have flat called instead of the raise and see what happened on the turn.
the jack high flush draw simply wouldnt be enough for me to call the shove, agreed if you loose the hand you still have have around 9k but it just doesnt feel right, id fold!
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We have 1 to a royal. How can we possibly fold?
:D That was the first thing that crossed my mind!!
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I know I"m simple but my chips are in the middle here.
Put the decision back to them for their tournament lives.
Foggy folds trips & the german folds air!
Easy. You don"t even show your hand! ;D
P.s Stuff the maths.
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what did you do and what happened in the end Dan. Come on ive been waiting for 3 days now.
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lol even i can ignore the maths if i think my reads are correct, but Flush draw [1 out for royal] versus this action which pretty much suggest 2 pair and sets for at least one villain is just to spewy imo to shove 172bb"s in,, no FE, you need both to call to break even lol cannot anyone logically justify a shove being right here with sound reasoning..
Kinbosh i"ll be very interested to what move you made and why,if you shoved what ranges did you put them on?
ps - why do some automatically put the german on air with just the info very aggressive,has there been some showdowns which i"m not aware of that automatically helps puts his range here on 100% air,is there no chance that he has a hand or foggy [whoever he is :)] for that matter..
more info to go by boshi please , i get fed up with the default answer to everything being shove :"(
std thread -
i got a flush draw,i"m oop with 2 others in a pre-flop raised pot,the flop is co-ordinated and my lead has been 2bet and 3betted what do i and why? btw i have no reads except one villain is aggressive i dont know what with but he is very aggressive.the other villain raised in ep and his name is misty..
std answer to all tricky spots -
obv they are bluffing here, without no doubt you have 100% fold equity, its a shove all in moment - std why did u bother posting this????
:D ;D
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Noble, do u think call>fold>raise?
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i think Dan has plenty of fold equity, how can he have no FE??
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i think Dan has plenty of fold equity, how can he have no FE??
I agree w/ this as well seeing as Foggy will be folding AA KK. Does German call 100% of the time w/ QJ seeing as we have Kinboshis range at QQ JJ 77 QJ AKdd (do we even know Boshi is gng to 4-bet shove QJ in this spot).
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i think Dan has plenty of fold equity, how can he have no FE??
I disagree and am with Noble on this - Dan either needs both of them to call a shove to give him a decent payoff if he hits his draw, or both of them to fold. If one calls with a set and the other folds, the pot odds do not justify the move. In reality the only hands that are realistically likely to call here are top and middle set - overpairs, two pair, and bottom set are probably likely to fold a lot of the time. The action suggests that at least one of them has QQ or JJ so is likely to call the shove - the shove only becomes the correct move if they both have QQ and JJ, and both call..... chances of that?
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How long have you been coming on this forum, noble? You should know by now that the agreed answer to every situation on here is to shove. Okay, what is the next question?
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i think Dan has plenty of fold equity, how can he have no FE??
I disagree and am with Noble on this - Dan either needs both of them to call a shove to give him a decent payoff if he hits his draw, or both of them to fold. If one calls with a set and the other folds, the pot odds do not justify the move. In reality the only hands that are realistically likely to call here are top and middle set - overpairs, two pair, and bottom set are probably likely to fold a lot of the time. The action suggests that at least one of them has QQ or JJ so is likely to call the shove - the shove only becomes the correct move if they both have QQ and JJ, and both call..... chances of that?
So u fold to the 2800? This is a great thread - soo many different opinions!!
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i think Dan has plenty of fold equity, how can he have no FE??
I disagree and am with Noble on this - Dan either needs both of them to call a shove to give him a decent payoff if he hits his draw, or both of them to fold. If one calls with a set and the other folds, the pot odds do not justify the move. In reality the only hands that are realistically likely to call here are top and middle set - overpairs, two pair, and bottom set are probably likely to fold a lot of the time. The action suggests that at least one of them has QQ or JJ so is likely to call the shove - the shove only becomes the correct move if they both have QQ and JJ, and both call..... chances of that?
So u fold to the 2800? This is a great thread - soo many different opinions!!
to be honest, in the heat of the moment, with draws to straight, flush, and royal, no I don"t think I can fold.... and as I hate calling, I"m probably shoving. However, sitting here with a calculator, and hours/days to think about it, I think a call or a fold is better than a shove.
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i think this is closer than my initial reaction.
however in this spot i feel that shoving>folding>>>>>>>>>>calling. UTG guy should fold a tonne of hands, including aces. It is hard to determine whether german flats QQ/JJ pre but given "aggressive" reads is he not likely to 3bet these pre? This leaves 77/QJ that he is likely to raise/call all in with. Also put AQ in his hands, what does he do here - Dan"s lead/4bet jam is super strong (btw i can"t see anyone folding bottom set in this spot).
i think calling the 2800 would be a huge mistake and put you in a terrible spot.
I still think you have enough FE to make this work.
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Yea I think shove>fold>call 100%
It would suck flatting the 2800 on the flop and then just check folding the turn!! Gives opponents a chance to get away from some hands if scare cards come on turn as well.
Not sure how German perceived Foggy which I guess wud affect his 3-bet range pre.
If German is folding QJ then thr is def a decent amount of f/e.
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i don"t think the German would fold QJ, i know i wouldn"t
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i don"t think the German would fold QJ, i know i wouldn"t
Well what range do u think Kinboshi is shoving?
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It"s not a guaranteed 12 outs though is it. If he has a set, we have lost a couple of outs to house draws.
Best chance for us is if he holds AA/KK - makes sure all 12 outs are live.
Technically we still have 12 outs, we just need to avoid the board pairing, as it stands there are 12 cards which on the turn will give us the stone cold nuts.
the only info i have to go by is that zeee german is aggressive and the blinds are i"m guessing 25/50 with boshi having around 9000 chips behind after leading out for 400 into a 400 pot,he sees rr to 1200 [pot 2000] and a 3bet to 2800 [pot 4800] if all stacks were of similar size pre if boshi shoves 9000 more and only gets 1 caller which will be most likely a set then he stands to gain 13800 chips which is -ev.... at best if we 4bet shove then we have to hope foggy and zeee german both have sets or a set and 2 pair for both to call for our shove to be just about break even ev wise , and all this when boshi is about 180bb"s deep!!! is there a chance we are against an over pair or two [AA,KK] maybe but with boshi holding blockers for both and a blocker for AQ and the way the action went post,does zeee german 3bet worse than 2 pair? if foggy has an over pair or TPTK then its a pretty easy fold given the action plus also how big the effective stacks are if boshi 4bet shoves.
There are very few scenarios in our favour so pretty much imo 4bet shoving is marginal at best so its not an option for me but this would give me a headache because i prefer to call [cant find a fold]but if foggy 4bets or goes all in then its a call [priced myself in by only calling,but only just against a set , hopefully but slim, maybe up against worse] even if zeee german does not continue,if foggy just calls and the turn bricks i can fold to any heavy action,if a diamond comes then i"ll bet for value,if the magical Td comes then all options are open ;D i see more value in calling,and if foggy only calls and the turn goes tits up, we still have around 132bb"s to soldier on with.
anyone want to work out maths wise if shoving flop is +cEV?
The fact that we have blockers to AA abd KK is pretty irrelevent whenever the board also has blockers to QQ and JJ. Without knowing this guy personally I would have thought that he was more likely to flat dan"s open with QQ and JJ to try to induce a squeeze from the aggro german but would probably reraise with his overpairs which would make AA andKK more likely than QQ and JJ. Pretty sure he"ll be folding overpairs to a shove here
i don"t think the German would fold QJ, i know i wouldn"t
I"m pretty sure I"d be folding QJ in the spot against anyone but an absolute nutcase!
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It"s not a guaranteed 12 outs though is it. If he has a set, we have lost a couple of outs to house draws.
Best chance for us is if he holds AA/KK - makes sure all 12 outs are live.
Technically we still have 12 outs, we just need to avoid the board pairing, as it stands there are 12 cards which on the turn will give us the stone cold nuts.
No - If he has QQ or JJ, we can hit four 10s, and seven diamonds (7 no good)... so only 11 outs before the turn, reducing to 10 outs after the turn
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It"s not a guaranteed 12 outs though is it. If he has a set, we have lost a couple of outs to house draws.
Best chance for us is if he holds AA/KK - makes sure all 12 outs are live.
Technically we still have 12 outs, we just need to avoid the board pairing, as it stands there are 12 cards which on the turn will give us the stone cold nuts.
No - If he has QQ or JJ, we can hit four 10s, and seven diamonds (7 no good)... so only 11 outs before the turn, reducing to 10 outs after the turn
Ok fair enough, could probably do with thinking before typing, but I"m still more than happy to get the loot in here.
Shove > Fold > Call
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bloody fold equity does my head in , there is another way which is easier to pick up which i"ll put in a later post.
Looking at boshis scenario just from a pure is it +or- ev if we shove but think we have no FE i"ll put up some numbers and try to explain it as best i can so that for those that dont know but are interested then they can take something from the thread..
EV - to determine if u have positive expectation your pot/implied odds need to be better than your calculated equity.
if you were to pokerstove boshis AKdd versus a set he would have 33% equity,he has 8600 behind so if he shoves and is only called by the german boshi will win 10600 33% of the time but 67% of the time he will lose 9000.
as i put villains on equal stacks of 9000 on the flop i do not count boshis 400 lead as in the pot,we have foggys 1200 plus preflop 400 equals 1600 - we are playing for the germans stack of 9000 - shove 9000 to win 10600
WIN 33% of 10600 = 3498
LOSE 67% of 9000 = 6030
WIN - LOSE = EV
3498-6030 = EV -2532 [not good we want positive expectation]
ok now i"ll do the same for a scenario if the german calls with 2 pair which rounded on stove makes boshi 45%
WIN 45% of 10600 = 4770
LOSE 55% of 9000 = 4950
WIN - LOSE = EV
4770-4950 = EV -180 [close but no cigar to breaking even]
anyhows i hope this helps someone when they want to review there hands to see if it was + or - ev , helpful in mtts as well as cash..
the numbers are pretty close but not 100% , u can figure in ties but mostly if ties are below 3% then there is not much significance on the numbers imho plus i rounded up and down...Also i use the equity % not the win %"s
if you wanted to work Fold Equity,things start getting a little trickier but not hard to learn,i"ll do an example later but
roughly it is - we multiply the EV if he calls number by the chance that we think he does call % and get a number....
then using the what we think fold % number, we use that number in the same methods above to get a FE....
we would then add FE and EVcall to get a EVtotal with FE built in...
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The fact that we have blockers to AA abd KK is pretty irrelevent whenever the board also has blockers to QQ and JJ. Without knowing this guy personally I would have thought that he was more likely to flat dan"s open with QQ and JJ to try to induce a squeeze from the aggro german but would probably reraise with his overpairs which would make AA andKK more likely than QQ and JJ.
i once used to use board cards for removal but got stung by sets lmao , so now i only use my cards pre-flop for card removal when trying to judge villain ranges, i do still factor in some removal for ranges post flop though if the board is paired but i try to do it with my reads on the villains and there tendencies.
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What more information do people need here to help with their decision?
For those saying shove (well, everyone really), what does the German 3-bet with on this flop with? I actually put him quite a wide range, with the worst I expect him to show being two pair - unless he"s betting with complete air. The bluff is part of his range, but I only expect to see it a small percentage of the time.
Foggy"s a decent player, and he knows me, so knows I"m not leading out OOP with bugger all on a flop with such a texture. So for him to raise me, he has TPTK or better (imo).
I think I posted the stack sizes earlier. The German has us both covered, and I am shorter than the other two - but obviously if I win an all-in coup then either would be pretty short.
Oh and I have a Royal Flush draw.
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What more information do people need here to help with their decision?
how does the German perceive u and Foggy?
Oh and I have a Royal Flush draw.
Sweet................ship ;) :P
if you wanted to work Fold Equity,things start getting a little trickier but not hard to learn,i"ll do an example later but
roughly it is - we multiply the EV if he calls number by the chance that we think he does call % and get a number....
then using the what we think fold % number, we use that number in the same methods above to get a FE....
we would then add FE and EVcall to get a EVtotal with FE built in...
EV= [EV(fold)]* x + [EV(call)*(1-x) ??? ::) ???
Edit: JamieCarra assures me EV= [EV(fold)]*( x ) +{ [EV(call & win)(y) + [EV(call & lose)*(1-y)}*(1-x)
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as well as all the obvious hands (sets QJ AQ) the German could also have a hand like 7d 8d or 9d td - can"t see him having complete air here unless he is a nutter
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The fact that we have blockers to AA abd KK is pretty irrelevent whenever the board also has blockers to QQ and JJ. Without knowing this guy personally I would have thought that he was more likely to flat dan"s open with QQ and JJ to try to induce a squeeze from the aggro german but would probably reraise with his overpairs which would make AA andKK more likely than QQ and JJ.
i once used to use board cards for removal but got stung by sets lmao , so now i only use my cards pre-flop for card removal when trying to judge villain ranges, i do still factor in some removal for ranges post flop though if the board is paired but i try to do it with my reads on the villains and there tendencies.
[ ] Makes sense
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The fact that we have blockers to AA abd KK is pretty irrelevent whenever the board also has blockers to QQ and JJ. Without knowing this guy personally I would have thought that he was more likely to flat dan"s open with QQ and JJ to try to induce a squeeze from the aggro german but would probably reraise with his overpairs which would make AA andKK more likely than QQ and JJ.
i once used to use board cards for removal but got stung by sets lmao , so now i only use my cards pre-flop for card removal when trying to judge villain ranges, i do still factor in some removal for ranges post flop though if the board is paired but i try to do it with my reads on the villains and there tendencies.
[ ] Makes sense
[ ] jamieCarra considers all the angles
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The fact that we have blockers to AA abd KK is pretty irrelevent whenever the board also has blockers to QQ and JJ. Without knowing this guy personally I would have thought that he was more likely to flat dan"s open with QQ and JJ to try to induce a squeeze from the aggro german but would probably reraise with his overpairs which would make AA andKK more likely than QQ and JJ.
i once used to use board cards for removal but got stung by sets lmao , so now i only use my cards pre-flop for card removal when trying to judge villain ranges, i do still factor in some removal for ranges post flop though if the board is paired but i try to do it with my reads on the villains and there tendencies.
[ ] Makes sense
[ ] jamieCarra considers all the angles
I was going to go for [ ] Makes sense
again but I"ll try this one instead....
[ ] Great comeback
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What more information do people need here to help with their decision?
For those saying shove (well, everyone really), what does the German 3-bet with on this flop with? I actually put him quite a wide range, with the worst I expect him to show being two pair - unless he"s betting with complete air. The bluff is part of his range, but I only expect to see it a small percentage of the time.
Foggy"s a decent player, and he knows me, so knows I"m not leading out OOP with bugger all on a flop with such a texture. So for him to raise me, he has TPTK or better (imo).
I think I posted the stack sizes earlier. The German has us both covered, and I am shorter than the other two - but obviously if I win an all-in coup then either would be pretty short.
Oh and I have a Royal Flush draw.
just curious - you called preflop as UTG range is fairly strong. What was your plan when you lead the flop, was it to induce a raise?
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out of interest heres an old link i had bookmarked away , old thread but there are a few good nuggets to get the grey matter going - http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=6280447&an=0&page=0#Post6280447
page 4 reply by TeamDonkey explaination for calling is spot on...
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^^^^Just had a quick glance at the actual hand - havent read thru the thread yet, but v diff situation. Draw isn"t to the nuts. Has stats on villain to aid w/ assigning ranges.
Edit: Also have 15outs twice against naked one pair if his read is correct so.............ul like this.............w8 for it.............I shove ;D
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just going to put this out there for discussion - our equity share of the pot pre and post is 33% obv,if you consider boshis position [bb oop] if we put zeeee german on 2 pair and sets and foggy on over pairs , sets and TPTK then our actual equity is 38 to 39% so does this make it right to lead and call rr .. Would any1 consider checking flop?
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If I check the flop, I do so to c/r most of the time.
The more I think about it, the more I really like the lead in this spot.
I also agree w/ Dean that it is poss for German to have some draws in his range which is clearly a good spot for us.
I am never b/c"n 33% of my stack and then just c/f"n blank turns.
Do we think villain stacks off w/ his draws after the 3-bet?
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if the german had a draw and having seen the action would he rr the amount he did with KTo or 9To not likely imo KTdd is out the window as we have the Kd , 9Tdd is possible but most would flat given the action ahead and its hard to say with little info that he would play 9Tdd fast like this. So thats 1 combo from his entire range that i"d put in as drawing hand....
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if the german had a draw and having seen the action would he rr the amount he did with KTo or 9To not likely imo KTdd is out the window as we have the Kd , 9Tdd is possible but most would flat given the action ahead and its hard to say with little info that he would play 9Tdd fast like this. So thats 1 combo from his entire range that i"d put in as drawing hand....
7d8d 6d7d 8d10d 9d10d QQ JJ 77 AQ QJ and a small amount of air can b his 3-betting range depending on levels of aggression and how competant he views kinboshi and foggy (obv v competant but seems he has very basic views at this early stage).
Assuming he never folds QQ JJ 77
Assuming he 100% always folds AQ
Assuming he folds QJ some of the time
Assuming he folds 7dXd draws most of the time but stacks off w/ 9d10d a reasonable amount of the time
Obv folds his small % of air hands all the time
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i don"t think the German would (should) 3bet/fold combos 7dxd or top 2(QJ) here but obv i may be wrong
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i disagree with that range marty , we have no read or showdowns to go by to assume he has such a wide range, the default imo is to assume he is strong till proven otherwise, the bet pattern suggests it..
If boshi was to assume everyone super wide in all future 3betted flops then i for one would not be looking to bankroll him if in all mtt 1st levels he was 4bet shoving basically blind over them,he"d bleed me dry lol :)
Why are some still advocating that he is 3betting super light here is beyond me with NO read , we need to move on and see if there are merits in calling or folding...
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i don"t think the German would (should) 3bet/fold combos 7dxd or top 2(QJ) here but obv i may be wrong
I dnt think he shud 3bet 7d-Xd either. Dnt h8 3-betting QJ in villains spot, but def folding it to a 4-bet from a good player at this stage. Just putting an example of a wider range an uber-aggro villain may 3-bet w/.
i disagree with that range marty , we have no read or showdowns to go by to assume he has such a wide range, the default imo is to assume he is strong till proven otherwise, the bet pattern suggests it..
If boshi was to assume everyone super wide in all future 3betted flops then i for one would not be looking to bankroll him if in all mtt 1st levels he was 4bet shoving basically blind over them,he"d bleed me dry lol :)
Why are some still advocating that he is 3betting super light here is beyond me with NO read , we need to move on and see if there are merits in calling or folding...
Im just saying...the only information we have is that villain is a capable aggro opponent so I dnt think his entire range has to b QQ JJ 77 QJ. " Got a player two to my right who is very aggressive (played in the German team), and he seems to be enjoying himself."
Y do u advocate flat calling this flop? I really am curious about this as I cannot see anything good with it.
I dnt think folding is bad at all!! I just think shoving is better, due to the fact that I still believe we have f/e.
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i disagree with that range marty , we have no read or showdowns to go by to assume he has such a wide range, the default imo is to assume he is strong till proven otherwise, the bet pattern suggests it..
If boshi was to assume everyone super wide in all future 3betted flops then i for one would not be looking to bankroll him if in all mtt 1st levels he was 4bet shoving basically blind over them,he"d bleed me dry lol :)
Why are some still advocating that he is 3betting super light here is beyond me with NO read , we need to move on and see if there are merits in calling or folding...
I don"t assume everyone"s super-wide in all 3-bet flops. So you want to stake me?
;)
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i"ll wait for result dan ty lmao :o
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i"ll wait for result dan ty lmao :o
Having said tht - lets get sum more posts out here b4 results so we can have sum gd unbiased discussion of:
shoving>folding>calling
or
calling>folding>shoving
^^Think they r the only 2 arguments so far, but we may get sum differing 1s yet.
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i am surprised that none of the AK cliches have come out yet. It is only ace hi after all etc...
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i am surprised that none of the AK cliches have come out yet. It is only ace hi after all etc...
It was just a-high, but I had a Royal Flush draw :o
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With all this "thinking" someone may have to put the clock on!
How long did the REAL decision take?
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With all this "thinking" someone may have to put the clock on!
How long did the REAL decision take?
Il set the line at 7.324seconds :)
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Decision took about 2 minutes.
The reason we talk about these situations for hours on end is so that it"s easier to make a decision at the table in "real-time".
Also worth remembering, I had a Royal Flush draw.
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Dan - did you, by any chance, have a draw for anything, like say perhaps maybe, a royal flush?
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Online 20 seconds ......... no wonder we sometimes get it wrong!
No-one can fold a ROYAL FLUSH draw (online!!).
Did YOU have a royal flush draw?? We need to know.
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Have we shoved yet?
Dan, with your rep (ie solid) it makes this shove even easier.
I know we"re deep. I know it"s early but these APAT affairs tend to turn into shoots which is why I"ll play fairly aggro (cos everyone else has their chips locked up). It hasn"t paid off for me so far- maybe I should be more patient and embrace the shoot.
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one thing we know for sure - however the hand played out, the td didn"t come on turn or river.... we would have heard it at the time!!
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This is the exact reason why i could never fold in this spot (what George2loose has said) Even though we start 200bbs deep. By about level 5 or so. If you look at the average chips, it is now around 50-60 BBs, which is no way to play creative or finness poker.
Suited connectors and set mining becomes too dangerous, because we are risking to much of our stack now to flop that hidden monster hand or monster draw.
I can tell you now that 99% of people will be putting their chips on the line later during day 1 and day 2 in much worse spots than 10 outs to the nuts with 2 cards to come, not to mention with the chance to doubble or maybe even tripple up.
"embrace the shoot" is a funny way of putting it, but it gets to nerve wrecking playing like a Harringbot in this structure and just waiting untill your "M" is 6, and then open shoving in worse spots.
I guess lately im giving away to much information on how i play, discussing hand problems like this. But i think getting chips all in for Dan right now rightly or wrongly, is how most would play it.
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one thing we know for sure - however the hand played out, the td didn"t come on turn or river.... we would have heard it at the time!!
I"m guessing Dan and foggy folded
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This is the exact reason why i could never fold in this spot (what George2loose has said) Even though we start 200bbs deep. By about level 5 or so. If you look at the average chips, it is now around 50-60 BBs, which is no way to play creative or finness poker.
Suited connectors and set mining becomes too dangerous, because we are risking to much of our stack now to flop that hidden monster hand or monster draw.
I can tell you now that 99% of people will be putting their chips on the line later during day 1 and day 2 in much worse spots than 10 outs to the nuts with 2 cards to come, not to mention with the chance to doubble or maybe even tripple up.
"embrace the shoot" is a funny way of putting it, but it gets to nerve wrecking playing like a Harringbot in this structure and just waiting untill your "M" is 6, and then open shoving in worse spots.
I guess lately im giving away to much information on how i play, discussing hand problems like this. But i think getting chips all in for Dan right now rightly or wrongly, is how most would play it.
so, all that said, you would have called with the J8dd in the hand in the OP?
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fold it dan....If u call i wouldnt criticise to much if u did it...
oop with these hands deep versus good agg players in a raised pot in the early levels , i might lead out std 1/2 to 2/3 pot to try and control the pot size better , difficult to do in a 3way raised pot oop... if i found out there was some good/tricky types reraising my leads a lot then i"d rethink my whole lead out strategy and mix it up a bit.
if i had to guess what exact hand foggy had i"d plump for QQ and zeeee Fritz on 77..
if foggy is as solid as mentioned then hard to see him getting jiggy with an over pair and QQ fits board/texture and what he"d perceive dans range to be and leading with ...
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fold it dan....If u call i wouldnt criticise to much if u did it...
oop with these hands deep versus good agg players in a raised pot in the early levels , i might lead out std 1/2 to 2/3 pot to try and control the pot size better , difficult to do in a 3way raised pot oop... if i found out there was some good/tricky types reraising my leads a lot then i"d rethink my whole lead out strategy and mix it up a bit.
if i had to guess what exact hand foggy had i"d plump for QQ and zeeee Fritz on 77..
if foggy is as solid as mentioned then hard to see him getting jiggy with an over pair and QQ fits board/texture and what he"d perceive dans range to be and leading with ...
I 100% understand ur reasoning for folding, and do not think its too bad, but can u go over what merits you think calling has and y u think its a good option??
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I 100% understand ur reasoning for folding, and do not think its too bad, but can u go over what merits you think calling has and y u think its a good option??
FFS not again!! I just wanna know what happened now.
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:"( Just trying to get the academy section gng rather than just a good story :) Point taken tho Steve - Noble is more than welcome to PM me nething else if he fancies it :) Just trying to get a better feel of flatting this spot and c"ing if it is actually a better option than I think it is.
Wud b gd to get Foggys thots on the hand as well :)
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this is the longest slowroll.....EVER! :o
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Ok, last night I did a little bit of work trying to work out the maths behind shoving. I've attached the ranges I assigned to each villain, while many of you won't agree with the calling range of the German I think it should be fairly accurate assuming that he is rational.
(http://s4.postimage.org/1ooIV9-98f5e5da0c65e786dddcded97d120a23.jpg)
(http://s4.postimage.org/1ooLpi-98f5e5da0c65e786dddcded97d120a23.jpg)
Have also attached the EV calc showing our equity against the various ranges depending on how the hand plays out and it came up a +EV of approx t2800.
(http://s1.postimage.org/1WwqQr-98f5e5da0c65e786dddcded97d120a23.jpg)
Didn't get a chance to look at the EV of calling last night but might try to at some stage later in the week if I get time.
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this is the longest slowroll.....EVER! :o
Good innit?
:D
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u need to get out more :-*
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u need to get out more :-*
Would be even funnier if I told everyone I didn"t actually have this hand and I"ve made it all up...
At this stage, not only had it better be true, but to repay the amount of input you"ve had, you"d better have flatcalled on the Flop, plus another 5k on the Turn, before folding on the River.
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u need to get out more :-*
Would be even funnier if I told everyone I didn"t actually have this hand and I"ve made it all up...
At this stage, not only had it better be true, but to repay the amount of input you"ve had, you"d better have flatcalled on the Flop, plus another 5k on the Turn, before folding on the River.
Not for your input I don"t.
:D
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bump for results :)
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bump for results :)
Results orientated imo.
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i reckon he folded
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i reckon he folded
You"re confusing him with me