Amateur Poker Association & Tour
Poker Forum => Strategy => Topic started by: Mikeyboy9361 on January 06, 2010, 09:24:37 AM
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Playing the $6000 gteed $5 buy in on BSQ last night. A mere 1665 runners. Okay 4 hours in, well in the money (lol). I was 20th out of 40 left with 45K, Chip Leader had 200K average was about 40K. Blinds just gone up to 2500/5000 plus 500 ante. Real money is paid to the top 5.
I had played a really conservative game all night, trying to avoid needless races, folding small pairs pre oop, and had only hit a river once ( I did have 12 outs).
I am in the BB with 96 spades, folded round to the cut off who is the CL ( recently lost a 100k pot) he min raises to 10k. Button and SB fold, there is 5k in antes 10k from the CL and 2500 from the SB plus my 5k BB.
What"s my move?
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Tougher spot than it looks at first - if you shove, the CL should be calling as he is priced in...... and even though his range is miles wide, it is going to be better than 9 hi a lot of the time.
fold.
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Unfortunely I"m a real odds fiend and find my self wanting to call this - if we were deepstacked!
But looking at the chips you only have 8-9 BB, out of position and even though the CO could be just trying to steal blinds and antes I"m sure there is there is other spots you can pick to shove and Hoover up the blinds yourself.
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Fold - against a similar sized stack you could shove but CL should be calling everyday of the week. Just shove next hand instead.
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unless u have seen him raise fold like 100 times before in this situation it has to be a fold
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if we assume that when u shove that he calls 100% and put him on a range of 22+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,A2o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo [he is getting 1.92 to 1 to call so without info 100% call]
just work out if its cEV+ mikey , 96s versus this range is 37%
he calls u win 67500 .37*67500= 24975
he call u lose 45000 .63*-45000= -28350
24975 + -28350 = -3365
so cEV its a fold , it all depends mikey on how wide of a range u want to put villain on and how much of that range u think he will call with, if u think he folds say 20% then it is +cEV [.20*22500= 4500] + the above is +1125 , not a huge edge but anymore FE than 20% then its a obv push...
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unless u have seen him raise fold like 100 times before in this situation it has to be a fold
Nearly made it in before Noble got his calculator out there. As Rosco said for me unless we have seen him raise fold a lot I am def passing this. Think the more obvious point is your comment about playing a conservative game, think you need to be more aggressive/adventorous. I have been on your table a couple of times and was going to mention it before I think but i found it quite easy to see when you weren"t keen on your hand and was able to raise/jam a couple of times to win the pot. can"t remember specifics but you were likely min raising small pairs and 3 or 4xing big hands.
Just a thought and only from a small observation....but anyway back to the maths...
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Fold seems pretty good here. Jam next hand.
What do ppl think of flatting, and then open-shoving evry flop?
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do u feel lucky ? may be an option thats what amrn does ::)
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interesting how Eck picked up on your bet sizing Mikey , so either make every raise the same std amount or if playing Eck
throw a few curve balls in and min raise big pairs [mix ure range up] etc or if he is betting u off your hand post-flop then depending on position throw in some check raises on the flop or turn etc etc [sorry Eck :) lol i wana see mikey take advantage of his image with u lol ;)
back to the maths - if we were to put villain on this range 22+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,A2o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo but that if u jam and he folds just A6s A7s A8s A2o-A6o JTo QTo KTo just 11 hands , then that would give 33% fold equity so a deffo MTFBWY shove.. obv it would be better here if u had a feel for villains range and his tendencies, for me if villain has been raising a lot is irrelevant , it is how often do we think he folds if we jam.. Even if villains raise range is 50% then mikey if called 100% of the time is 38% to win..
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interesting how Eck picked up on your bet sizing Mikey , so either make every raise the same std amount or if playing Eck
throw a few curve balls in and min raise big pairs [mix ure range up] etc or if he is betting u off your hand post-flop then depending on position throw in some check raises on the flop or turn etc etc [sorry Eck :) lol i wana see mikey take advantage of his image with u lol ;)
lol this was ipoker like there was any room for post flop play....
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Thanks for the feedback guys, been launching a Google ad words campaign all morning for Dimplex heaters, if you hadn"t noticed its cold outside!!
I hope I am a little less predictable these days Eck ( its been a while since I was on your table) and I try and be a bit more creative on occasions! ;)
Any way my thought process was - Min raise from the CL was weird, he had not done that before, either he had a monster or he wanted to see a flop cheaply without limping, he had just taken a big beat. So surely I am priced in to call? I have 5k in already and it is only 5k more into 22.5k, more than 4:1 on my money. With the blinds so high I decided to call, and see what hit.
Flop 9 2 5 rainbow, no spades!
What now?
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firstly, you shouldn"t consider that you had 5k in already - money already in the pot is no longer yours.
You are correct that you are getting the right odds to call, but it"s such a large percentage of your stack, and you will check/fold so many missed flops, that calling here is -EV.
As played, now that you"ve caught top pair you cannot possibly get away from the hand. Open shove to protect what you"ve hit.
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Thanks for the feedback guys, been launching a Google ad words campaign all morning for Dimplex heaters, if you hadn"t noticed its cold outside!!
I hope I am a little less predictable these days Eck ( its been a while since I was on your table) and I try and be a bit more creative on occasions! ;)
Any way my thought process was - Min raise from the CL was weird, he had not done that before, either he had a monster or he wanted to see a flop cheaply without limping, he had just taken a big beat. So surely I am priced in to call? I have 5k in already and it is only 5k more into 22.5k, more than 4:1 on my money. With the blinds so high I decided to call, and see what hit.
Flop 9 2 5 rainbow, no spades!
What now?
Calling pre is terrible, I"d be tempted to check raise now
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I hope I am a little less predictable these days Eck ( its been a while since I was on your table) and I try and be a bit more creative on occasions! ;)
Think it was 2 or 3 weeks ago mate, wasn"t an APAT game would have been one of the rebuys on ipoker but may have been another mikeyboy for all i know.
Anyway fold pre now i dont mind tbh u have hit top pair if he was strong he will likely call a jam anyway so why not let him bet and have a gamble at the full double up.
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Pot odds probably make calling profitable, but this is a tourney and pot odds dont really come into the equation in this spot.
fold preflop. As played, check raise flop or if it goes check check on flop, shove the turn.
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I hope I am a little less predictable these days Eck ( its been a while since I was on your table) and I try and be a bit more creative on occasions! ;)
Think it was 2 or 3 weeks ago mate, wasn"t an APAT game would have been one of the rebuys on ipoker but may have been another mikeyboy for all i know.
Anyway fold pre now i dont mind tbh u have hit top pair if he was strong he will likely call a jam anyway so why not let him bet and have a gamble at the full double up.
Not me Eck, never play re buys, and would defo remember.
Right consensus seems to be that I played this like a complet ar*e. Getting the odds to make the call was a major thing in making this call, which is strange for me because I am not usually dictated to by pot odds, and particularly not in tournaments.
I still think calling is not that bad though as I could easily have laid it down if I had not hit, and still be about average stack. As it turned out, hitting got me into all sorts of trouble.
So I hit top pair, and check as suggested, he bets about half the pot and I insta shove, only for him to show a flopped set of fives, and its goodnight Vienna, for a massive profit of $34.70!
Having thought about it, my normal inclination would be to fold here, and get my money in when in position, and under my own terms, so I am disappointed that I let the odds sway me into calling. Clearer thinking next time! ;)
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U dnt have a big enuf stack to call even with the correct odds.
Wen u say, u can call, and fold flops and still have an average stack...average stack is 8x so this is not reassuring!
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U dnt have a big enuf stack to call even with the correct odds.
Wen u say, u can call, and fold flops and still have an average stack...average stack is 8x so this is not reassuring!
Yeah but after 4 and a half hours, aren"t most tournaments becoming crapshoots?
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U dnt have a big enuf stack to call even with the correct odds.
Wen u say, u can call, and fold flops and still have an average stack...average stack is 8x so this is not reassuring!
Yeah but after 4 and a half hours, aren"t most tournaments becoming crapshoots?
No, most online tournaments should still have a decent amount of play in them, and you need to be able to adjust your game whenever it does turn into a crapshoot (ie not calling 10% of your stack oop with 96)
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100% standard muck pre with <10bigs, calling is very optimistic and you need a flop like you got. You should use your chips for fold equity rather than calling off. Reshoving with 9 hi when the CL should never fold is not on the menu either
as played, CRAI baby - please don"t fold for crying out loud
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I"d be folding 95% of the time. Maybe the other 5% of the time. as long as i"ve had afew beers, could try a stop and go
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It depends on the buy in and the size of the tourney. The sunday million still has play for the average stack after 4 hrs,
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Correct Will! This was a $5 tourney on BSQ, and the average stack was less than 8 BBs, so we were at crap shoot stage.
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Correct Will! This was a $5 tourney on BSQ, and the average stack was less than 8 BBs, so we were at crap shoot stage.
therefore chips should be used for jamming and not calling
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Yeah, think I,ve got the message on that one ;)
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Yeah, think I,ve got the message on that one ;)
i dont mind it mikey , your instinct as u said was that u thought he may not be strong Min raise from the CL was weird, he had not done that before, either he had a monster or he wanted to see a flop cheaply without limping,
as long as you have a plan then i"m ok with your move , unorthodox yes but not as bad as it 1st looks imho.
I still think calling is not that bad though as I could easily have laid it down if I had not hit, and still be about average stack. As it turned out, hitting got me into all sorts of trouble.
So I hit top pair, and check as suggested, he bets about half the pot and I insta shove,
This is the only part of your thought process i dont like , u dont have to hit the flop but i do think u either donk bet into him any flop or if u want to then check fold if u miss ONLY if u read the players to your left as weak in the blinds so that u may have the opportunity to steal quite easily.. if u hit though i prefer to donk bet no fancy check raise please :) as he may take a free card and catch up or cbet and then be committed anyhows, plus the way u read him i think in this situation u get him to fold most flops if led into.. I like it even more if u have observed him folding flops when donked into as well,this works [not surprisingly] a lot in these low buy ins.
Ok uve tried it out and its backfired but with a few tweaks and the right reads i think this works in certain situations,especially if your image has been conservative then your call does look stronger [even in $5 mtts at this stage they notice mr tighty]