Poker Forum => Strategy => Topic started by: Mikeyboy9361 on January 14, 2010, 09:31:41 AM
Title: Latter Stages again!!
Post by: Mikeyboy9361 on January 14, 2010, 09:31:41 AM
Having been roundly chastised for my play in the latter stages last week, I thought I would post a hand I was involved in last night and get your thoughts.
4K gteed, $20 freezeout, 300 Runners, top 30 paid, decent money for top 5, me 13/20, already got $54 locked up! CL 50k, average about 20K, me 14k, Blinds 800/1600/100.
CL is on my table and has been extremely active raising probably 60% of all pots and bullying good style! I am in the SB having just re raised in the BB to take a decent pot uncontested from the guy who is now on the button.
So blinds 800/1600 with 100 ante, CL, UG raises to 5200, folded round to the Button who shoves for his last 10K, I look down in the SB at Pocket tens.
What do you do?
Title: Re: Latter Stages again!!
Post by: deanp27 on January 14, 2010, 09:38:13 AM
i"d prolly jam it in
Title: Re: Latter Stages again!!
Post by: Eck on January 14, 2010, 09:44:23 AM
Pretty ugly spot imo you will probably get CL involved as well so will need to run good but I think I am too short here to pass TT so I shove most times.
If i have more chips (nearer to 20 than 10 BB"s) I could probably find a fold would be expecting to bust tbh but need to take the chance I think.
Title: Re: Latter Stages again!!
Post by: Marty719 on January 14, 2010, 10:32:20 AM
Yea Im putting it in all day here. 8x w/ 18k already in the pot. C/l clearly has a wide range, and button is putting it in w/ any pp, any Ax hand, and all paint combos. Getting it in and putting myself in a gd spot to get a gd score if it works out.
If i have more chips (nearer to 20 than 10 BB"s) I could probably find a fold would be expecting to bust tbh but need to take the chance I think.
If I have 20x, I still think Im re-shoving here to iso the button as we are ahead of his range.
Title: Re: Latter Stages again!!
Post by: shozboy1 on January 14, 2010, 10:34:14 AM
The button must know he"s getting called by the UTG raiser. You wouldn"t expect him to be shoving a very wide range here given this fact, but also, that he"s on the button and he could wait for another orbit to find a decent enough hand -basically I can"t see him shoving trash here. Your probably flipping at best with him. Additionally, I know UTG has been very active, but what"s his opening range been from this specific position? Has he been stealing alot from late position generally, and tighter UTG?
All in all its unlikely you"ll be ahead of both players, and you shoving less than 10BBs is not going to encourage the UTG raiser to fold and allow you to isolate the button - he will have compelling pot odds to call here and given how loose he is he"s even more likely to call. Against 2 players in this situation, I don"t fancy 1010 being the best hand at showdown.
Do we expect to get knocked out here more often then tripling up (near enough)? I think so, I"d move towards folding, but its close
Title: Re: Latter Stages again!!
Post by: Eck on January 14, 2010, 11:00:23 AM
The button must know he"s getting called by the UTG raiser. You wouldn"t expect him to be shoving a very wide range here given this fact, but also, that he"s on the button and he could wait for another orbit to find a decent enough hand -basically I can"t see him shoving trash here. Your probably flipping at best with him.
With 6x, running antes, and an aggro table bully, I expect him to be 3-bet shoving 22-AA, A2+, any paint combo"s. Im pretty sure 10"s r ahead of his range.
Title: Re: Latter Stages again!!
Post by: noble1 on January 14, 2010, 11:30:44 AM
not a super spot mikey especially with everyone so shallow , i"d lean towards going for a triple up here , u havent got a stack to work with at the moment and it"ll only get worse. The buttons range i cant see being wide myself [as u have not mentioned any reads on him] i"ll asume he has waited a little bit to long for a decent hand so i would put him on at least 88+,AJs+,KQs,AJo+ the BB going by what u said i put him on summat like 77+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KTo+,QJo which means that it is gambling time for u.. :)
Title: Re: Latter Stages again!!
Post by: AMRN on January 14, 2010, 11:47:44 AM
too much value here to avoid playing the fifth best starting hand
Title: Re: Latter Stages again!!
Post by: deanp27 on January 14, 2010, 12:48:30 PM
Ok i"ll try and break this down. In the absence of a HH i assume we are 6/7 handed with 20 left and that only money worth playing for is on the FT and probably in the top 3/4 spots.
You say UTG is a big CL and is liberal in opening (from any position i assume being short handed) - i don"t know how big his stack is. We have no real reads on button, other than he will have same feelings towards CL as you.
Options
Fold - we get to see what cards they are playing for curiosity purposes (pretty sure CL can"t fold) but we are left with a short stack with big CL two to our left, so very little FE and miles away from decent money - we will have to get lucky
Shove and CL folds (which is unlikely but i never rule anything out in these) - we are therefore in decent shape HU against a reasonable range, possibly flipping but there is a tonne of dead money in the pot from UTG and blinds. Therefore we are likely to be getting huge odds with 4k left over if we lose for hope value.
Shove and CL calls - as above but we are obviously 3 way and CL range is still quite wide. We have an 8k side pot vs CL range as an insurance policy if we don"t win the 3 way all-in coup.
i like playing for bigger money rather than scraping into the cash relying on picking up QQ+ when i have 3bbs. I think this is a reasonable spot.
Title: Re: Latter Stages again!!
Post by: deanp27 on January 14, 2010, 12:49:30 PM
With 6x and a running ante, it this is his entire range, he shud be lynched!
Title: Re: Latter Stages again!!
Post by: SirPercival on January 14, 2010, 13:07:19 PM
Depends on your attitude to the prize money IMO. You are going to be looking at a gamble most of the time so are you willing to risk the difference in prize money between going out now against a possibility of laddering a few places or better?
You have the button next hand. Stealing the odd blinds and getting your chips in first putting others to the test is an option to ladder a few places and gives potential for a better spot to double up. With a 3 way pot there are more potential overcards that could bust you. Why is the button putting his tournament at risk when he could wait a few hands? His range (given the limited information available) is going to include any pair, possibly any Ace, and any 2 paint. CL must call and from what you say could have ATC but being UTG might narrow that a bit.
For example, if cl has ATC with 1 overcard, say kh 4d and button has my favorite hand ah jc you are winning 42% of the time giving you a stack of 40k.
I was in a very similar situation during my WSOP event in 2006 (400 out of 2800 left, 280 paid) I pushed with my 10s and was against QQ and AK - fml ;D
Title: Re: Latter Stages again!!
Post by: LongshanksED on January 14, 2010, 13:09:09 PM
This stage in tourney and with your stack I"d make a crying fold. not happy about it but Their will be other spots. Your probably facing 2overcards from one and probably Another pair lower than yours but JJ is a possibility. If your up against 4 overcards then there"s a good chance your going out.
Early stages of a tourney it"s an easy fold also
Title: Re: Latter Stages again!!
Post by: JamieCarra on January 14, 2010, 13:36:36 PM
why the hell are we even thinking about this? It"s about as straight forward a shove as I have ever seen!
Title: Re: Latter Stages again!!
Post by: noble1 on January 14, 2010, 13:48:12 PM
With 6x and a running ante, it this is his entire range, he shud be lynched!
please engage brain before u try and flame every post i make please marty and read why i reasoned a narrow range for him........ :) u think he his wide , i think mostly when they get this short they do it waiting for a hand 8)
Title: Re: Latter Stages again!!
Post by: Marty719 on January 14, 2010, 13:59:54 PM
With 6x and a running ante, it this is his entire range, he shud be lynched!
please engage brain before u try and flame every post i make please marty and read why i reasoned a narrow range for him........ :) u think he his wide , i think mostly when they get this short they do it waiting for a hand 8)
Haha - not flaming at all. I think we must have drasticly different styles in spots like this!! As for enlarging my brain...I left my DS in Belfast, but brain training will commence on my return. I just dnt think thr is any chance button is folding ANY pp after a liberal opening c/l brings it in. I think folding any PP or A-high or reasonable paint combos is a HUGE mistake on his part.
Was ur reason for a narrow range that he had waited so long for a hand?
Title: Re: Latter Stages again!!
Post by: Roscopiko on January 14, 2010, 14:40:39 PM
This one is v player dependant to me. I happily get it in against CL but probably lean towards a fold here with another player involved who more often than not likely has us dominated.
I"d rather fold here and shove into unopened pots later.
Title: Re: Latter Stages again!!
Post by: AMRN on January 14, 2010, 14:47:55 PM
This one is v player dependant to me. I happily get it in against CL but probably lean towards a fold here with another player involved who more often than not likely has us dominated.
I"d rather fold here and shove into unopened pots later.
....even though you will be creating a side pot with C/L that will effectively underwrite your bet against the other player??
Title: Re: Latter Stages again!!
Post by: SirPercival on January 14, 2010, 16:05:04 PM
why the hell are we even thinking about this? It"s about as straight forward a shove as I have ever seen!
Can you give some explanation with this?
Views seem to be split between push and fold and I don"t think it"s a straightforward decision.
Title: Re: Latter Stages again!!
Post by: shozboy1 on January 14, 2010, 17:29:23 PM
I think the decision is between push and fold, and its a marginal fold for me. If anyone has read Pearljammer"s textbook "winning poker tournaments one hand at a time" there"s a similar situation in there he writes about. I will find the hand he talks about and post what he did and why.
Title: Re: Latter Stages again!!
Post by: Mikeyboy9361 on January 14, 2010, 18:45:47 PM
I didn"t really have any reads on the button, he had recently been moved to my table, but as I said I had just re raised him as he tried to steal my BB, and so tagged him as fairly aggressive. CL had been very active, and even though he was UTG his range was massive, and as far as I was concerned I was way ahead of him. When the button pushed I figured he probs had a PP or any ace, and hoped it was a pp, I also had a thought that I could maybe push the CL out of the pot ( Too much value - I know), but in that 20 secs you get..... I wasn"t concerned with laddering too much as the next pay jump was for 10th, and I was maybe hoping I could get a decent enough win to pay for my upcoming skiing holiday! So I shoved, button showed AKo, and CL showed pockets Aces!!! FFS! AK didn"t improve, but neither did the tens. So another mega $54 win after 4 hours! Thanks for your feedback guys, and at least Jamie agreed with my move this time!
Title: Re: Latter Stages again!!
Post by: samuel_9 on January 14, 2010, 20:03:43 PM
why the hell are we even thinking about this? It"s about as straight forward a shove as I have ever seen!
Can you give some explanation with this?
Views seem to be split between push and fold and I don"t think it"s a straightforward decision.
Well, we"re miles ahead of both their ranges, we"ve got about 9bb and we need to get to the top few places to make it worth our while. Makes it a pretty simple decision to me.
Title: Re: Latter Stages again!!
Post by: samuel_9 on January 14, 2010, 20:47:05 PM
why the hell are we even thinking about this? It"s about as straight forward a shove as I have ever seen!
Can you give some explanation with this?
Views seem to be split between push and fold and I don"t think it"s a straightforward decision.
Well, we"re miles ahead of both their ranges, we"ve got about 9bb and we need to get to the top few places to make it worth our while. Makes it a pretty simple decision to me.
spot on
Title: Re: Latter Stages again!!
Post by: SirPercival on January 14, 2010, 20:51:00 PM
why the hell are we even thinking about this? It"s about as straight forward a shove as I have ever seen!
Can you give some explanation with this?
Views seem to be split between push and fold and I don"t think it"s a straightforward decision.
Well, we"re miles ahead of both their ranges, we"ve got about 9bb and we need to get to the top few places to make it worth our while. Makes it a pretty simple decision to me.
maybe ahead of one of them but not miles ahead of both. More likely to be a coinflip.
Title: Re: Latter Stages again!!
Post by: Swinebag on January 14, 2010, 20:54:18 PM
I"m gambooling for a triple up and a top 3 payday. I say gamble because the liklihood that this is going 3 way where tens are favourite to lose (<50%). With a deeper stack you can find a fold here but not with 9BBs
Title: Re: Latter Stages again!!
Post by: JamieCarra on January 14, 2010, 21:03:20 PM
why the hell are we even thinking about this? It"s about as straight forward a shove as I have ever seen!
Can you give some explanation with this?
Views seem to be split between push and fold and I don"t think it"s a straightforward decision.
Well, we"re miles ahead of both their ranges, we"ve got about 9bb and we need to get to the top few places to make it worth our while. Makes it a pretty simple decision to me.
maybe ahead of one of them but not miles ahead of both. More likely to be a coinflip.
Which range do you not think we"re ahead off?
We"ve got the CL who is bullying and raising 60% of hands, and then a shortstack with about 6x who is shoving over the top of a person raising 60% of hands.
I"m pretty sure we"re going to be in great shape a huge amount of the time here.
Title: Re: Latter Stages again!!
Post by: noble1 on January 15, 2010, 00:23:25 AM
I didn"t really have any reads on the button, he had recently been moved to my table, but as I said I had just re raised him as he tried to steal my BB, and so tagged him as fairly aggressive. CL had been very active, and even though he was UTG his range was massive, and as far as I was concerned I was way ahead of him. When the button pushed I figured he probs had a PP or any ace, and hoped it was a pp, I also had a thought that I could maybe push the CL out of the pot ( Too much value - I know), but in that 20 secs you get..... I wasn"t concerned with laddering too much as the next pay jump was for 10th, and I was maybe hoping I could get a decent enough win to pay for my upcoming skiing holiday! So I shoved, button showed AKo, and CL showed pockets Aces!!! FFS! AK didn"t improve, but neither did the tens. So another mega $54 win after 4 hours! Thanks for your feedback guys, and at least Jamie agreed with my move this time!
Did you see any of the CL"s hands that he been raising mikey? [apart from AA :)] put HH in a replayer and embed on here , are u game for some constructive feedback? http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/
good luck with the skiing , hit them moguls . i"m off to garmisch in mid feb , brechen Sie ein Bein mikey ;D [youtube=425,350][/youtube]
Title: Re: Latter Stages again!!
Post by: SirPercival on January 15, 2010, 08:42:40 AM
why the hell are we even thinking about this? It"s about as straight forward a shove as I have ever seen!
Can you give some explanation with this?
Views seem to be split between push and fold and I don"t think it"s a straightforward decision.
Well, we"re miles ahead of both their ranges, we"ve got about 9bb and we need to get to the top few places to make it worth our while. Makes it a pretty simple decision to me.
maybe ahead of one of them but not miles ahead of both. More likely to be a coinflip.
Which range do you not think we"re ahead off?
We"ve got the CL who is bullying and raising 60% of hands, and then a shortstack with about 6x who is shoving over the top of a person raising 60% of hands.
I"m pretty sure we"re going to be in great shape a huge amount of the time here.
Have a look at my example above where we are 42%. Many hands in their range have a similar scenario.
Title: Re: Latter Stages again!!
Post by: Marty719 on January 15, 2010, 09:14:12 AM
Sweet - 42% with all tht $$ in the middle!! Time to try and get a stack and shoot for a top 3 finish.
I think we can b in pretty decent shape a good bit of the time against their perceived ranges. Just an ul sit to run into the top of both their ranges.
Title: Re: Latter Stages again!!
Post by: SirPercival on January 15, 2010, 09:42:48 AM
Sweet - 42% with all tht $$ in the middle!! Time to try and get a stack and shoot for a top 3 finish.
I think we can b in pretty decent shape a good bit of the time against their perceived ranges. Just an ul sit to run into the top of both their ranges.
I agree - pretty decent shape. Which is why I think it"s all about attitude to winning/laddering etc. The statement I was disagreeing with was "miles ahead of both".
Title: Re: Latter Stages again!!
Post by: Marty719 on January 15, 2010, 10:00:45 AM
Cnt get on pokerstove in work :(
do we figure btns range is a 22-AA, A2+, KJo+, K10s+, QJo+, Q10s+ type range?
UTG"s range with the given reads is substancially wider than this?
I think we r miles ahead of their individual ranges, but the fact that we r very rarely getting rid of c/l obv negatively affects the numbers.
Title: Re: Latter Stages again!!
Post by: JamieCarra on January 15, 2010, 10:04:33 AM
why the hell are we even thinking about this? It"s about as straight forward a shove as I have ever seen!
Can you give some explanation with this?
Views seem to be split between push and fold and I don"t think it"s a straightforward decision.
Well, we"re miles ahead of both their ranges, we"ve got about 9bb and we need to get to the top few places to make it worth our while. Makes it a pretty simple decision to me.
maybe ahead of one of them but not miles ahead of both. More likely to be a coinflip.
Which range do you not think we"re ahead off?
We"ve got the CL who is bullying and raising 60% of hands, and then a shortstack with about 6x who is shoving over the top of a person raising 60% of hands.
I"m pretty sure we"re going to be in great shape a huge amount of the time here.
Have a look at my example above where we are 42%. Many hands in their range have a similar scenario.
42% counts as miles ahead whenever we"re getting such a sick price!
Also worth noting that there will an ~8k sidepot which we should have 60 - 65% equity in.