Amateur Poker Association & Tour
Poker Forum => Strategy => Topic started by: shozboy1 on January 25, 2010, 11:49:13 AM
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Hi, views would be welcome on this...
20/20 at DTD. 247 entrants. 130ish left. Only top 27 get paid. Average stack is roughly 35-40 BBs at the current blind level of 300/600/a50.
I have 5700 left. Been completely card dead for 2-3 hours. A reasonably active table. I have recently pushed in with a pair of 10s from UTG+1 and all folded. About 4 hands later, for the 1st time in a couple of hours it folds round to me on the button. I have 5700, nearly 1.3k in the middle. I shove any two. The sb folds (a recent table addition). The BB, has sat with me the entire tourney. Has seen me play very tight. He also whittled down to 5BBs, but about 10mins earlier got up to 20ish BBs, with AA, with 2 players running into him with KK and JJ. He also has been quite tight. He tanks for 3-4 mins. Obv I know he doesn"t have a pair and a decent Ace here after his tank.
My queries are:
Is a shove here with any two (in this case 74o) reasonable?
Is his call with Q8o a bad call (I"d say so given his stack size and cards)? Given he has 20BBs behind now?
Should I have shown my previous 10-10 shove to the table to preserve my tight image? I think his decision was so marginal, that if I had shown (normally I never show) he would"ve folded this hand.
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I Think his move is fair enough, he has only 5BBs, he knows you need to shove and could be pushing with any two ( which you were). He already has 600 invested and approx 2500 or 3000 behind. From your point of view the small stack in the BB should have been a factor in your decision to push, as with anything half decent he is going to call you ( which he did).
Showing your tens may have helped your image, but in this case it wouldn"t have made any difference.
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marginal - normally i would but it would depend on the table dynamic. BB will be desperate being so short so it will depend on whether i can get it by him
marginal - he has little fold equity left and you have a reasonably wide range.
don"t bother showing cards imo
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Sorry, I didnt explain my 1st post properly. He did have 5BBs, but recently had just got back to 20BBs. Hence, when I pushed he had 20ish BBs behind and not 5BBs.
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it all depends on what u think villains will call u with.. This is where a bit of study with pokerstove and knowing a bit of maths comes in and u can work out your push ranges for the future.
Ok if u knew the 2 villains behind were tight with there call ranges in this situation [all on how deep villains are,what pot odds they are getting and your image/how they perceive your ability] say they call with the top 10% hands - 77+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,AJo+,KQo by just knowing this u can work out how often they will fold..
So they fold 90% , with 2 behind all u do is multiply 90% by 90% to get approx times they fold..
so 0.9 x 0.9 = 0.81 which is 81% the pot is 1350 and they fold 4 out of 5.... 4 x 1350 = 5400 so not to hard push 74o here because the 1 time out 5 u get called by this range u win 1 in 4 ... all this = +cEV
If they call loose with 22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q6s+,J8s+,T8s+,97s+,87s,A2o+,K8o+,QTo+,JTo,T9o - 36% of hands then your push range to be profitable would be 22+,A2s+,K9s+,QTs+,A3o+,KTo+ why? because 64% of the time they fold so 0.64 x 0.64 = 40% so u know u have to push a range that is above 50% to be definite +ev..
It is just a case of putting in the study and getting to know your ranges [how they play against one another] and the basic maths behind it.. All failing that go on say 2+2 in the probability forum and ask the egg heads there :) although u may get some heavy maths thrown back they may direct u to a excel pushbot sheet that would help with the calculations on shove ranges...
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no problem with your pushing range being massively wide in this spot, but you have to take into account that he is pot committed, and in the same way that you should shove ATC, he is likely to call ATC.
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That was my mistake - he didn"t have 5BBs, but 20BBs behind. Hence he wasn"t committed to call at all.
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no problem with your pushing range being massively wide in this spot, but you have to take into account that he is pot committed, and in the same way that you should shove ATC, he is likely to call ATC.
if u know he calls ATC then i fold 74o but thats my nitty style :) i only do this because if i knew he calls ATC even though
against a random hand 74o is 35% to win and with a pot of 1350 although cEV+ to push ATC it is really marginal , about 0.9 of a bb +ev :).. so if villain calls ATC i"d prefer to push the top 70% of my range as i know i"d be the favourite over a random hand [sometimes tighter,depending on villains/table dynamics etc]... but thats my preference :) Yes shoz ATC shove is cEV+ here as is calling Q8o if villain thinks u are pushing really wide , me personally if i know a villain is pushing ATC then i call my top 50% [and yes Q8o is in there] ;D
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I understand Noble, but isn"t the other guy terrible for calling/putting at risk half his recently accumulated stack with Q8o given I"ve been tight (card dead)? He, at best, is 2-1 fav (ok he actually was 2-1 but he can"t know that). Seems not a great spot to put half your stack in especially as he"d just got it back up to 20BBs?
p.s what about my original question of showing pocket 10s to preserve my image to get him to fold such a marginal hand and preserve my tight image?
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Q8o fine if he thinks u push wide . his pot equity is 42% , if say he said u thought u"d push ure top 25% then yes bad call..
Its all on reads,villain calling range,there style etc etc learn and adjust to it :)
p.s what about my original question of showing pocket 10s to preserve my image to get him to fold such a marginal hand and preserve my tight image?
if i want action i do not show , if i show, i do it so i can steal the next time i shove with trash :)
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Your shove with any 2 is standard here. For the BB it is a math problem, if he is getting anywhere near 2-1 he should snap call without even looking. In this instance he has to call roughly 5k to win 7k. So he is getting almost 1.4-1. Not really a great price with trash.
It does not matter how much money he has behind for the math problem, just depends on his preference. There is a hand similar to this in HOH vol 2. Harrington calls a shove from the big blind with j-6o. The table laughs when he turns over j6, and someone shouts "have you lost your marbles" but he was getting 1.6-1 so he wasnt bothered about his hand. And after that call, the other players gave him quite a few walks because they could see he was willing to call a shove with any 2. So even though he lost with the j6 show down (other guy had AK), he made profit over the next few orbits by getting walks, because no-one was willing to steal his blind.
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Your shove with any 2 is standard here. For the BB it is a math problem, if he is getting anywhere near 2-1 he should snap call without even looking. In this instance he has to call roughly 5k to win 7k. So he is getting almost 1.4-1. Not really a great price with trash.
It does not matter how much money he has behind for the math problem, just depends on his preference. There is a hand similar to this in HOH vol 2. Harrington calls a shove from the big blind with j-6o. The table laughs when he turns over j6, and someone shouts "have you lost your marbles" but he was getting 1.6-1 so he wasnt bothered about his hand. And after that call, the other players gave him quite a few walks because they could see he was willing to call a shove with any 2. So even though he lost with the j6 show down (other guy had AK), he made profit over the next few orbits by getting walks, because no-one was willing to steal his blind.
Talks sense that Harrington, doesn"t he?
;)
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so for the ATC brigade with 10bb from the button would u push 23o if u know that villains knows that u are pushing ATC?
in my opinion the right conditions must exist to make the strategy of shoving ATC effective , for example is it worth pushing ATC versus someone who is a clueless station?
HOH J6o
Calling with negative expectation is an option for me depending on my stack size, obv not an option if it cripples or ruins me.How much will it change my strategy in terms of the chips gained or lost is why i"d take a -ev punt every now and then.Image after comes into it but i think it depends on how good the players that u are up against.
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harringtons J6 hand
was that not the hand he called when he used his 10-1 chip stack rule
if he has 10X more than his opponets stack then he"ll call the all in with any 2 - this hand he had aound 150k in chips and his opponent had around 12k
could be getting them mixed up
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i think you are right longshanks.
Noble, I agree I shoved ATC here because I felt the conditions were good. Picked someone who"d just chipped up albeit up to a marginal stack of 20BBs. He was generally predictable. I saw him fold to alot of flop 3bets generally.
Phil Laak once said "internet players have no clue when to show their cards"
Perhaps a show of my 1010 shove here 4 hands earlier would"ve cemented the guy folding. He tanked for 2-3 mins before making a "crying" call. I think this call, given what he should know about me was terrible
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Yeah, with 20BBs and that hand and your image, then I don"t think I am calling here.
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Soul read
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Over analysis FTW> these 20/20 comps are ridic soft. D"you really think oppo was thinking about anything you"ve posted here before he made the call?
You shove was right, his call was abso ridic. End thread
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probably my biggest problem is giving credit to thought processes of other players where its not due.
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very true shoz , button push , they think ATC .. u only have to think one level above....
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So the answer is to fold the rubbish that is 74o pre. ;D
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i guess, my read was wrong on him. He wasn"t as tight as I thought he"d be. i.e his early tightness didnt translate to mid game tightness. Me not picking this up essentially meant my shove was wrong
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i guess, my read was wrong on him. He wasn"t as tight as I thought he"d be. i.e his early tightness didnt translate to mid game tightness. Me not picking this up essentially meant my shove was wrong
Not sure I understand. Because you didn"t win this particular hand you"ve decided your play was wrong. His call with Q8 is bad, that doesn"t make your play bad, does it?
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Not sure I understand. Because you didn"t win this particular hand you"ve decided your play was wrong. His call with Q8 is bad, that doesn"t make your play bad, does it?
it does boshi if u know villain calls with the top 33% of his range :) work it out , its -ev , factor in also that maybe villain is clueless then 74o doesnt look very rosy :)
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Not sure I understand. Because you didn"t win this particular hand you"ve decided your play was wrong. His call with Q8 is bad, that doesn"t make your play bad, does it?
it does boshi if u know villain calls with the top 33% of his range :) work it out , its -ev , factor in also that maybe villain is clueless then 74o doesnt look very rosy :)
He doesn"t get the top 33% of his range very often though, only about 33% of the time in fact. And he"s folding the times he doesn"t have it. Also, 74o has ~31% equity vs the top 33% of hands. Work it out. It"s +EV.
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Not sure I understand. Because you didn"t win this particular hand you"ve decided your play was wrong. His call with Q8 is bad, that doesn"t make your play bad, does it?
it does boshi if u know villain calls with the top 33% of his range :) work it out , its -ev , factor in also that maybe villain is clueless then 74o doesnt look very rosy :)
He doesn"t get the top 33% of his range very often though, only about 33% of the time in fact. And he"s folding the times he doesn"t have it. Also, 74o has ~31% equity vs the top 33% of hands. Work it out. It"s +EV.
please read thread as u have to work out the FE for the sb + bb which if they both call loose is - 40% fold - 60% call
This is not a sb versus bb situation which would be ok for 74o [maths push] but when on the button pushing 74o into 2 loose callers of 33% your fold equity is different 55+,A2s+,K4s+,Q6s+,J7s+,T7s+,98s,A5o+,K8o+,Q9o+,J9o+,T9o
.40*1350 = 540
.60*.31*7050 = 1311
.60*.69*-5700 = -2359
= ev of -508
in order to push 74o to be profitable u need the bb and bb to fold 60% of the time , for that u need both players [sb+bb]to have calling ranges of 22% or less , rather nitty if villains know u are pushing ATC on the button [seems the fashion :)] so the button should adjust his shoving range ... u can shove the top 53% to be ok [maths +ev] - 22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J4s+,T6s+,95s+,85s+,75s+,64s+,54s,A2o+,K2o+,Q7o+,J8o+,T8o+,98o
to be about break even u can widen more to 70% tops which means 74o is still a no no , if u want to shove correctly.
Set the Payout structure to "1" and enter in your blinds/antes and stack sizes. This will give you a pretty good idea of what your shoving range should be. And if you look at the calling ranges it suggests for your opponents, you will notice that some people don"t call as wide as they should, so obv you can push a little wider than it suggests likewise if they call loose then u tighten your push range... this is ok ish to review with ...
http://www.holdemresources.net/hr/sngs/icmcalculator.html?action=calculate&bb=600&sb=300&ante=50&structure=1&s1=&s2=&s3=&s4=&s5=&s6=&s7=5700&s8=12000&s9=12000 (http://www.holdemresources.net/hr/sngs/icmcalculator.html?action=calculate&bb=600&sb=300&ante=50&structure=1&s1=&s2=&s3=&s4=&s5=&s6=&s7=5700&s8=12000&s9=12000) for approx guide
or stick in full table - http://www.holdemresources.net/hr/sngs/icmcalculator.html?action=calculate&bb=600&sb=300&ante=50&structure=1.0&s1=30000&s2=39000&s3=7600&s4=23000&s5=10000&s6=47000&s7=5700&s8=12000&s9=12000
tinker with it..
the good ole jcm push charts [in pdf] http://members.cox.net/wastrel333/Pushbot%20Charts1.pdf