Amateur Poker Association & Tour
Poker Forum => Strategy => Topic started by: TheSnapper on March 16, 2010, 02:52:58 AM
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I have been very active of late, they may be sick of it and its somewhat likely someone will play back at me.
No-Limit Hold'em Tournament, 75/150 Blinds (8 handed) - Hold'em Manager (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com)
CO (t3139)
Button (t2595)
SB (t7290)
BB (t4377.50)
Hero (UTG) (t4531.25)
UTG+1 (t2270)
MP1 (t1205)
MP2 (t4687.75)
Hero"s M: 20.14
Preflop: Hero is UTG with J(http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerforum/images/smilies/spade.gif), J(http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerforum/images/smilies/diamond.gif)
Hero bets t393.75, UTG+1 raises t1100, 6 folds, Hero calls t706.25
Call is okay? As I write I Do"nt think so, villain has more than half his stack in and that"s probably stronger than had he shipped the lot.
Flop: (t2425) 3(http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerforum/images/smilies/spade.gif), K(http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerforum/images/smilies/spade.gif), 6(http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerforum/images/smilies/heart.gif) (2 players)
Hero bets t3431.25 (All-In), UTG+1 calls t1170 (All-In)
We may be ahead? may have a small amount of fold equity now, whereas we had none preflop? and we can"t conceivably fold, so betting > check calling?
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I reckon he is very strong, probably something like KK. You should have folded to the RR pre, so now we are set-mining on the flop.
No set and a K on flop. We are 100% behind here, if we weren"t before. I have him on KKK. Fold. Fold. Oh, you"ve gone all-in. Oh well, you"ll probably suck out anyway.
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Pretty annoying spot, but prob folding to the 3-bet pre unless I know villain is an idiot. 3-betting an UTG raise from UTG+1 usually means JJ is in a fair amount of trouble. Even though you havew been active and opening a decent amount, I cnt see him 3-betting light here.
If villain had 3-bet a ton and had no concept of positional awareness then I just jam pre.
As played I think shove flop is better than c/c for the very small amount of f/e we may have picked up.
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Even though you"ve been active, it takes balls to 3 bet UTG+1.... or a very strong hand that has JJ crushed. Given he has half his stack in, there"s no point in calling oop preflop - he"s pot comitted anyway and it"s all going in on the flop.... and clearly you aren"t getting any implied odds to set mine.... it has to be shove or fold, but never call.
I would fold preflop.
If this was the hand from last night"s sat..... what a sickener!
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meh i"d hate to fold JJ for less than 15bbs. I"d probably stick it, especially if we have been active and we have no specific read on villain.
As played you have to jam if you are going to proceed, can"t see any merits to calling whatsoever....however i don"t hate a fold - when you raise UTG and get 3bet by either the SB or UTG+1 it is usually a monster. I would also add that some players are not as positionally aware as we are though, so we can be guilty of giving too much respect.
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Fold > Shove > Call pre imo
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Is this a SNG or a tourney? Sorry to be thick. Couldn"t decipher this. Anyhow, given you"ve been active of late, I would err on side of shove all in preflop. Folding is 2nd best but not terrible, and calling is horrible.
I"m sure Noble can do the calcs better than me, but he can have only afew hands that have you crushed (QQ-AA) and many hands that you crush/flip with. I"m sure the maths would add up to a shove all in pfr.
Plus, he has 15bbs, there"s no room to call and "play poker" here.
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Is this a SNG or a tourney? Sorry to be thick. Couldn"t decipher this. Anyhow, given you"ve been active of late, I would err on side of shove all in preflop. Folding is 2nd best but not terrible, and calling is horrible.
I"m sure Noble can do the calcs better than me, but he can have only afew hands that have you crushed (QQ-AA) and many hands that you crush/flip with. I"m sure the maths would add up to a shove all in pfr.
Plus, he has 15bbs, there"s no room to call and "play poker" here.
It"s the latter stages of a satellite MTT - and I guess that does have relevance, and actually makes the fold an even more viable option
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If thats the case I"d fold all day, especially with 30BBs behind.
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I reckon he is very strong, probably something like KK. You should have folded to the RR pre, so now we are set-mining on the flop.
No set and a K on flop. We are 100% behind here, if we weren"t before. I have him on KKK. Fold. Fold. Oh, you"ve gone all-in. Oh well, you"ll probably suck out anyway.
:D :D :D
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It"s the latter stages of a satellite MTT - and I guess that does have relevance, and actually makes the fold an even more viable option
blinds are 75/150 Steve so early to mid stage.
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Is this a SNG or a tourney? Sorry to be thick. Couldn"t decipher this. Anyhow, given you"ve been active of late, I would err on side of shove all in preflop. Folding is 2nd best but not terrible, and calling is horrible.
I"m sure Noble can do the calcs better than me, but he can have only afew hands that have you crushed (QQ-AA) and many hands that you crush/flip with. I"m sure the maths would add up to a shove all in pfr.
Plus, he has 15bbs, there"s no room to call and "play poker" here.
I dnt think there are "many hands" that we crush or flip with wen he 3-bets an utg raiser from utg+1. Prob just QQ+, AK (not even sure he 3-bets all his AK hands in this spot but def a fair %).
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Is this a SNG or a tourney? Sorry to be thick. Couldn"t decipher this. Anyhow, given you"ve been active of late, I would err on side of shove all in preflop. Folding is 2nd best but not terrible, and calling is horrible.
I"m sure Noble can do the calcs better than me, but he can have only afew hands that have you crushed (QQ-AA) and many hands that you crush/flip with. I"m sure the maths would add up to a shove all in pfr.
Plus, he has 15bbs, there"s no room to call and "play poker" here.
I dnt think there are "many hands" that we crush or flip with wen he 3-bets an utg raiser from utg+1. Prob just QQ+, AK (not even sure he 3-bets all his AK hands in this spot but def a fair %).
Exactly. He"s rarely going to 3-bet with TT or less for half his stack with so many still to act behind - any raising action with a hand weaker than JJ (including AK) is usually likely to be a shove..... the 3-bet to half his stack kinda polarises his range to QQ+ (probably even tighter to specifically KK/AA)
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It is pretty spewy on my part to be honest. The deciding factors for my play were, Because I had been busy and I had folded to a 3 bet earlier, his range ought to be wider, Its a pretty fast structure and I still had a playable stack if I lose the hand. I reckoned the extra chips had effectively more worth than the potential loss.
Anyhow the hand played out.....
No-Limit Hold'em Tournament, 75/150 Blinds (8 handed) - Hold'em Manager (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com)
CO (t3139)
Button (t2595)
SB (t7290)
BB (t4377.50)
Hero (UTG) (t4531.25)
UTG+1 (t2270)
MP1 (t1205)
MP2 (t4687.75)
Hero"s M: 20.14
Preflop: Hero is UTG with J(http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerforum/images/smilies/spade.gif), J(http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerforum/images/smilies/diamond.gif)
Hero bets t393.75, UTG+1 raises t1100, 6 folds, Hero calls t706.25
Flop: (t2425) 3(http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerforum/images/smilies/spade.gif), K(http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerforum/images/smilies/spade.gif), 6(http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerforum/images/smilies/heart.gif) (2 players)
Hero bets t3431.25 (All-In), UTG+1 calls t1170 (All-In)
Turn: (t4765) J(http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerforum/images/smilies/club.gif) (2 players, 2 all-in)
River: (t4765) J(http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerforum/images/smilies/heart.gif) (2 players, 2 all-in)
Total pot: t4765
Results:
Donkey had J(http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerforum/images/smilies/spade.gif), J(http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerforum/images/smilies/diamond.gif) (four of a kind, Jacks).
Aceonfifth ( poor B"stard) had K(http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerforum/images/smilies/diamond.gif), K(http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerforum/images/smilies/heart.gif) (full house, Kings over Jacks).
Outcome: Donkey won t4765
Now I know what the other end of a savage beat feels like.:-[ :-[ :-[ :-[
Disclaimer; No animals were hurt during or in the immediate aftermath of the playing of this hand.
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the horriblest of horrible bad beats. 2 cards in the deck and needed to hit them both...... Brendan, could you just PM me with 6 random numbers between 1 and 49 please.
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well obv just a good beat thread, would have been helpful to know that it was a satellite which would make folding more obvious
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But I think AK mite jam a lot of the time as well which makes his range seem QQ+ for the most part.
Edit:
U r a sicko :)
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But I think AK mite jam a lot of the time as well which makes his range seem QQ+ for the most part.
Agreed,
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According to my calculations, you were 0.1% to win with Quads (or a Poker as we used to called it in Ireland).
However, as you also had a backdoor flush-draw, that gave you a further 3.6% (omitting the 6s), so he was only 96.3% favourite. On that basis, your hand now seems good enough to get the chips in. He should have folded.
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snapper u gotta remember that stove calculates with 5cards to come so it calcs showdown equity if board is left blank and so on if u enter 3cards in the board panel then it will estimate equity with 2cards to come..The difficult part to calc your ev to see a flop is u have to work out how often an Ace , King or Queen come on the flop for villains AK AQ holdings and then calculating for his bigger pairs QQ+ and a low cooler flop and then factor in your 2 outs to hit to improve turn and river[approx 8%] as long as villain does not improve...The problem is compounded when u factor in at least one opponent happens to hold one of those overcards to your jacks...
u get {50 \choose 3} = 19,600 possible flops so i"ll leave others to work it out :)
just read through it and i hope u get what i"m trying to explain..
edit - the figures u have from stove estimate the equity for a 5card showdown..
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snapper u gotta remember that stove calculates with 5cards to come so it calcs showdown equity if board is left blank and so on if u enter 3cards in the board panel then it will estimate equity with 2cards to come..The difficult part to calc your ev to see a flop is u have to work out how often an Ace , King or Queen come on the flop for villains AK AQ holdings and then calculating for his bigger pairs QQ+ and a low cooler flop and then factor in your 2 outs to hit to improve turn and river[approx 8%] as long as villain does not improve...The problem is compounded when u factor in at least one opponent happens to hold one of those overcards to your jacks...
u get {50 \choose 3} = 19,600 possible flops so i"ll leave others to work it out :)
just read through it and i hope u get what i"m trying to explain..
edit - the figures u have from stove estimate the equity for a 5card showdown..
I do understand and your point is sound it really is a snap fold pre, The real decision is preflop and having made the mistake of calling there, I was never ever folding the flop but suspected a small gain in fold equity by shoving the flop rather than preflop and thats why I"ve stoved as 5 cards to come.
Thanks a lot guys it is pretty low content to be honest though.