Amateur Poker Association & Tour
Non Poker Forum => Sports Betting & Discussion => Topic started by: noble1 on January 23, 2011, 17:12:02 PM
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Not had a bet now for about 3 month, waiting for the flat season
don"t blame u nos , but the Cheltenham Festival is looming and i"ve got to warm up for it :)
i"ve been looking at the trends and seeming as i"ve got my feet up today i"ll post up some of the key pointers that i look at for some ante-post bets and closer to the day when ground conditions are known...
Supreme Novices Hurdle
Experience of large fields is a big plus, the ground if good or faster suits the flat bred which came in handy when i backed Arcalis back in 05 at 25"s [he won at 20/1] Marcel was the hot pot favourite that year, he had never won in a big field, he favoured a bit of cut and he had way to much racing throughout the year, he lost by miles and the bookies thanked [laughing there privates off] all the mugs/tipsters who backed it heavy, so check out lightly raced types, no more than 4 or 5 races that racing season at most.. If the going good to soft or softer forget the flat breds, still look out for lightly raced types who have won in a field of at least 12+ runners, if you see comments in the results as u comb through the form such as ""impressive"" ""shaken up to lead"" ""eased down to win"" ""driven out"" etc then try to find the race on video at sporting life or at the races or the racing post if u have a subscription and check out the horse with your own peepers, u cannot beat good old fashioned hard work when whittling down a shortlist... 5 and 6 year olds have a fantastic record in the Supreme Novice so strike a line through anything younger or older [around 32 of the last 36 supremes have been won by a 5 or 6 year old]
Short list all horses that have a top 3 finish last time out prior to Cheltenham and of course note any irish trained horse lol :) , the canny irish have a good recent record, Ebaziyan back in 07 at 40/1 need i say more? :) only the 2 races prior, 1st lto and a 2nd in big fields in conditions that matched the going at Cheltenham that day [soft], Amaretto Rose was the hot pot going off at 2/1 :o that day, who the fu#k in there right mind backs a english trained 2/1 shot in a competitive race like this and makes money? Although his form looked good for some reason punters overlooked the fact he was a hold up type [and wasn"t irish :)], so my next titbit of info when combing through the form is to favour the handy types [in touch, tracked leaders in previous races] as the Supreme is a fast run race and it pays to be on a horse that can keep up with the pace setters at the very least,[so no worse than mid division types] so if u see held up in the form description one to many times for a Supreme candidate then strike a line through it :)
Captain Cee Bee was a recent glitch in the record for 5and6 year olds, CB was a 7yo but it was irish and owned by JP McManus and backed heavy from 12"s to 17/2, so no real shock there :) but by and large 5or6 year olds win it but dont be averse to having a saver if one of JP"s horses gets stuck into or is fancied... :)
Sausalito Bay way back in 2000 beat Best Mate on good ground [i was on at 16"s :)] flat bred, taken from Ian Baldings yard to Noel Meade , 2 outings over hurdles won them both, so in a nutshell do your homework for each race is what i advise....
I hope this helps someone out, sorry for the mish mash writing, i just wrote it quick as things came back to me, my memory gets like that as i get older lol lol :)
I"ll try to go through the other races as Cheltenham looms up and hopefully as a collective we met pick out some juicy priced winners.....
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Maybe we should start a separate, Cheltenham festival thread, noble ?. I"ve been trawling through the form today as well.Would be interesting to hear other peoples views.
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Maybe we should start a separate, Cheltenham festival thread, noble ?. I"ve been trawling through the form today as well.Would be interesting to hear other peoples views.
start one up by all means, for now though i"ll post up some pointers to each race that maybe some may benefit from..
upto now i"ve just backed one ante-post, Oscar Whisky for the world hurdle, it will be tough to beat Big Bucks but after Oscar W"s race at Cheltenham on new year day it looked to me as though he has improved... With Henderson having Binocular for the Champion Hurdle, i think Oscar W will be aimed at the World Hurdle as the extra distance looks to be the key.. 2 miles in the champion hurdle against the likes of Binocular, Menorah, Peddlers Cross and Hurricane Fly seems a tall order imho so 3 miles seems the logical choice given the display over 21 furlongs Oscar W gave on new year and if he does enter the upcoming welsh champion hurdle [over 2 miles] then if defeated by Peddlers or Binocular then i"d expect Henderson to aim Whiskey at the world hurdle... Meh i just don"t think [imho] that Oscar Whiskey has the speed to beat Binocular, Menorah, Peddlers Cross or Hurricane Fly, maybe even Overturn would be quicker over 2miles if the ground is on the good side....
Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase
a really good chance to find a winner, on the day shortlist all the horses who opens priced 10/1 or less, put a line through the rest, also put a line through the favourite and your shortlist will be mostly down to 3 to 5 horses...
browse through the last 6 runnings -
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=497501&r_date=2010-03-16&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=473172&r_date=2009-03-10&popup=yes
Kalahari King and Tartak opened at 11"s
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=447770&r_date=2008-03-11&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=422747&r_date=2007-03-13&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=398283&r_date=2006-03-14&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=366075&r_date=2005-03-15&popup=yes
fine tune the shortlist by favoring horses that finished first or second last time out, french bred and irish bred have a good record which will help in pin pointing a horse from the shortlist also.. look and go back through there hurdle form and favour those with ratings of 142+... favour horses that have had 4 or 5 chase races experience, Tatenen, Noland and Clopf are recent examples that having just the 2or3 chase races prior experience can be a factor against them in this fast paced race [over stiff fences]...
hopefully the above will help in finding the winner :)
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Grand Crus for the World Hurdle
Ghizao for the Arkle Chase
Oh, and nice thread guys. ;)
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Supreme Novice 2010
[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wfxF7G6NMJk[/youtube]
[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-zHCIvXPsk[/youtube]
Arkle Chase 2010
[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rb95QDrGcgA[/youtube]
[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QY148_CGlb4[/youtube]
see above Leigh (http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/smiley-signs108.gif) (http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys.php)(http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/smiley-signs105.gif) (http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys.php)(http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/smiley-signs128.gif) (http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys.php)(http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/smiley-signs123.gif) (http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys.php) you tube code is(http://www.freesmileys.org/emoticons/emoticon-tv-002.gif) (http://www.freesmileys.org/emoticons.php)
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LOL, Noble makes Youtube coding work. Anything is possible. :D
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Right on to the next race, a easy usually big most years field handicap, getting a shortlist to a manageable size requires the help of the trends brigade again....
Festival Handicap Chase [William Hill Trophy]
Put a line through any horse carrying 10-13 or more, put a line through any horse carrying less than 10-2.. any horse 11 years or older then put a line through it... last time out wins are a plus... put a line through the favourite, only 2 have won in the last 16 years 2009 and 1994.... irish bred horses have a great recent record also - 8 OF THE LAST 10 RUNNINGS [just doing these pointers would of given Chief Dan George last year]
Race style wise i tend to look for off the pace types for this race,good tactical speed and are capable of tracking the leaders, so when going through the form i look for comments in the previous race descriptions such as ""held up in touch"" ""shaken up"" ""rallied"" , this with a good run or a win is a good pointer, then its a case of looking back through videos just to see for yourself...
Doing the above will give a very short manageable list and hopefully a better chance of selecting the winner in what is usually a 20+ runner race....
the last 10 runnings [no 2001, foot and mouth]
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=499095&r_date=2010-03-16&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=474811&r_date=2009-03-10&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=449560&r_date=2008-03-11&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=424593&r_date=2007-03-13&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=400333&r_date=2006-03-14&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=374157&r_date=2005-03-15&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=345219&r_date=2004-03-16&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=327630&r_date=2003-03-11&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=311635&r_date=2002-03-12&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=276855&r_date=2000-03-14&popup=yes
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William Hill Handicap
[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d4RYEhvf4IM[/youtube]
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Wow now onto what looks will be a very high class Champion hurdle, imho 2008 2009 were a tad sub-par, Binocular although not at his best leading upto the race in 2010, won in convincing style...
Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy [a few handy pointers]
wins by a 5 year old are rare, Katchit was a blip in 2008 as he was the first 5yo to win since See You Then back in 85, and Katchit was no where near to being in the same league as See You Then [for those that can remember this triple winner]...... only 3 horses since 1951 have been older than 8 that have won... so in a nutshell concentrate on 6 to 8 year olds......
last time out winners have won the last 23 of the last 27 runnings of this race, Punjabi in 2009 had finished 3rd last time out. Hardy Eustace 2nd last time out in 2004 are 2 of the blips in the last 10 runnings....
Irish trained horses have won 7 of the last 12, although they have not won the last 3 runnings...
8 of the last 10 runnings have be won by French bred [3 times] Irish bred [5 times]....
good previous years Cheltenham festival form [1st,2nd] is a strong trend, likewise a previous Champion hurdle top 3 finish in recent years , Supreme hurdle winners in recent times have gone onto win after next but one year [Brave Inca and Hors La Loi III] , Binocular was a runner up in 2008 and went onto to win in last years Champion....
So at the moment the main fancies for the 20011 Champion Hurdle are -
Binocular
Hurricane Fly
Menorah
Peddlers Cross
Binocular is the defending champ, Menorah is the Supreme novice champ. Peddlers Cross won the NIM Novices Hurdle which has also thrown up Champion Hurdle winners, Hardy Eustace and Istabraq... So we know these 3 have the previous festival form, but why is Hurricane Fly so well fancied? it hasn"t got no Cheltenham experience at all but if u look through his form, then you"ll see why :)
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=663874
Hurricane Fly has took the same races prep route [bar the John James at Cork in November] as did the great Istabraq once do as his prep campaign before going onto win at Cheltenham.. This plus he has looked so bloody impressive really puts a fly in the ointment in trying to separate the clear top 4 in the betting....
Istabraq still holds the course record for the Champion hurdle 3m 48.1secs, if not for the festival being abandoned in 2001 i think this great horse would of been the 1st to win the champion hurdle 4 times..
Here are some highlights of Istabraq"s races, ""the place is going POTTY"" lol lol lol :) [2m 46secs in, excitable commentating , luvvv it]
[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VVB6_HvBv8U&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]
[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rUaQaY_Lqw[/youtube]
[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PiRBxMY52u8[/youtube]
[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=swrQea-NDrA[/youtube]
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Too much info, too much info, system overload.
Now were did I put that pin
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Grand Crus for the World Hurdle
Ghizao for the Arkle Chase
Oh, and nice thread guys. ;)
i hope u was on Crus for the Cleeve Hurdle, his price for the World hurdle has just crashed :)
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Grand Crus for the World Hurdle
Ghizao for the Arkle Chase
Oh, and nice thread guys. ;)
i hope u was on Crus for the Cleeve Hurdle, his price for the World hurdle has just crashed :)
Very impressed by Grand Crus.A very credible challenger for Big Bucks.
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Cross Country Handicap Chase
race 5 of day 1 and a fairly new race, introduced in 2005.. the handy stats to know for this are that Enda Bolger has won this 4 times and is 6/6 for at least 1 horse placing, in fact he trained the 1,2,3 in 2009.. all 4 of his winning horses were owned by JP McManus, all 6 races to date have been won by an irish trainer [Rothwell & Hourigan the others]
4 of the 6 had won lto the other 2 had placed 4th, so there you have it, either put a line through all non irish trained horses and shortlist the rest or use nosey-p"s lucky? pin.... :)
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=374159&r_date=2005-03-15&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=400335&r_date=2006-03-14&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=424595&r_date=2007-03-13&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=449562&r_date=2008-03-11&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=474812&r_date=2009-03-10&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=499096&r_date=2010-03-16&popup=yes
David Nicholson Mares Hurdle
it has only be running at the festival since 2008 , 08 won by Whiteoak and 09,2010 both won by Quevega, so if willie mullins chooses to run Quevega in this once again then she"ll be a hotpot favourite... so it looks as though either a good look through the form nearer the day is required or its nosey-p"s lucky? pin.. :)
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JCB Triumph Hurdle - I bet Local Hero 20/1 hopefully he"ll run and win. ;D
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Grand Crus for the World Hurdle
Ghizao for the Arkle Chase
Oh, and nice thread guys. ;)
i hope u was on Crus for the Cleeve Hurdle, his price for the World hurdle has just crashed :)
Didn"t see it unfortunately.
What"s your opinion, does he look good enough to beat Bucks ?
Thinking about laying it off now.
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i hope u was on Crus for the Cleeve Hurdle, his price for the World hurdle has just crashed :)
Didn"t see it unfortunately.
What"s your opinion, does he look good enough to beat Bucks ?
Thinking about laying it off now.
hmmm theoretically when it comes to trading we should assess the current price of the horse and decide whether it still represents value. If we think it does, then arguably we should be putting more money on it, not laying-off.
Depends on your bet size and your betting bank Leigh [if u have one :)], if your not used to long losing sequences or u want to grow your bank in a slow safe manner then trading now would be ok imho... If it was me i"d let it ride and trade in running for a small profit/small loss breakeven if things look gloomy come the day, ground/going is the key Leigh, will Grand Crus go on good or firmer? imho he"ll go on it but his action looks more suited to a softer going, meh it makes the World Hurdle look a lot more interesting now, Big Bucks has a contender now.... :)
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Grand Crus in the Cleeve Hurdle - press [< on the player to view the parade etc...
http://horses.sportinglife.com/Video/Racing/0,27770,415922_3,00.html
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Once upon a time there was a race called the Jewson Novice Handicap Chase, now it is called the Centenary Novices Handicap Chase, this race has been moved from Thursday to the Monday... Just to confuse some, there is now a race on day 3 called the Jewson Novices Chase which is Grade 2 listed to be ran over 2m4f...
Centenary Novices Handicap Chase [last race of day 1]
the key stat is that out of all 6 runnings of this race the 6 winners had won or finished second lto.....
horses with these lto finishes have been responsible for the 1-2-3 four times and a 1-2 on another......
on the official ratings put a line through the top 7, all the winners have been in the mid and lower end of the weight scale......
only 1 fav has finished 1st out of the 6 races, not a large sample but the other 5 races the favourite did not place at all....
5 out of the 6 winners had all ran once before at Cheltenham......[quite a few horses that enter this race but not all have previous experience at Cheltenham, it may help to discount one from the shortlist]
in the main it may pay to favour horses from your shortlist that are within the top 6 in the betting.....
hopefully this gives a manageable shortlist to work through or you can borrow nosey-p"s lucky? pin :)
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=374162&r_date=2005-03-17&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=400338&r_date=2006-03-16&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=424598&r_date=2007-03-15&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=449565&r_date=2008-03-13&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=474814&r_date=2009-03-12&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=499100&r_date=2010-03-18&popup=yes
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Day 2 begins with a race for amateur jockeys, it is the oldest race at the festival. The mix of novice horses, amateur jockeys and a race which is ran over 4 miles makes this a tough one to predict....
National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup -some pointers which may help.
look for horses that finished in the top 4 lto, 25 out of the last 27 winners have had this stat...
12 of the past 17 winners finished in the top 2..
only two 6 year olds have won in the last 21 runnings, put a line through them and anything younger..
in the last 21 runnings 7 & 8 year olds have won 16 times..
favourites have only won this 3 times in the last 21 years..
put a line through any Paul Nicholls trained horse..
any horse opening up in single figure odds on the day then put a line through it..
put a line through any horse whose jockey has no wins for this racing season 2010/11..
hopefully the above will help pin point a winner from your short list, if in doubt then PM nosey-p and ask to use his lucky? pin :)
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Keep it coming Noble.
I"m thinking we"ll run a Cheltenham tipping comp on here. Open to suggestions on format.
Got some good prizes.
APAT merchandise
Drinks from Des
A share in the APAT Horse (No, hang on, we sold that to G Casino Bolton on the weekend ;) )
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PEDDLERS CROSS
not so good news for Peddlers Cross supporters - http://blog.bangorondeeraces.co.uk/bit-hold-peddlers-cross
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Noble do you get the Weatherbys cheltenham festival guide.For a stats man like yourself its invaluable.Come"s out on 24/2/2011.
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Noble do you get the Weatherbys cheltenham festival guide.For a stats man like yourself its invaluable.Come"s out on 24/2/2011.
i prefer to do my own jackl.. , i approach the cheltenham festival races by looking for stat/form trends,patterns in form,recent form,trainer form and gut instinct based on what i see.. i also keep an eye out for trainer predictability as i call it, the leading trainers do have certain methods in how they prep there horses.. meh the stats play a part especially for the festival cos some of these races have been running for years, we"d be fools to ignore the trends totally but sometimes a little left of center out of the box thinking is required :)
i thought i"d give a few pointers to help those that were interested in having a few bets during Cheltenham, now Leigh comes up with this :) -
Keep it coming Noble.
I"m thinking we"ll run a Cheltenham tipping comp on here. Open to suggestions on format.
Got some good prizes.
APAT merchandise
Drinks from Des
A share in the APAT Horse (No, hang on, we sold that to G Casino Bolton on the weekend ;) )
so jackl.. and any other apat-GG men out there feel free to suggest how you"d want to score this comp, maybe run the tips versus nosey-p"s lucky? pin selections ? :P
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Neptune Investment Management Novices Hurdle
winners form below -
2010 - http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=729930
2009 - http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=700801
2008 - http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=672982
2007 - http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=634583
2006 - http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=620206
2005 - http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=556464
2004 - http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=582060
2003 - http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=557094
2002 - http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=537964
2000 - http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=504913
race results from previous years -
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=497797&r_date=2010-03-17&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=473556&r_date=2009-03-11&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=448233&r_date=2008-03-14&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=423219&r_date=2007-03-14&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=398616&r_date=2006-03-15&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=368038&r_date=2005-03-16&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=344428&r_date=2004-03-17&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=326816&r_date=2003-03-12&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=310977&r_date=2002-03-13&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=276311&r_date=2000-03-15&popup=yes
favour Irish and French breds for the shortlist, put a line through the rest...
5 and 6 year olds have a really good record so put a line through the rest...
put a line through Nicky Henderson runners, his record for this is a poor 0/21...
favour horses in your shortlist that open up in the top 6 of the betting...
if a horse in your shortlist ran in the previous year in the Festival Bumper, then if they finished in the top 6 then that can be a pointer... out of 11 which have done so, 3 have won and 3 have placed...
put a line through any horse which did not finish 1st or 2nd lto...
the above should leave a nice shortlist.. :)
also keep an eye out for placed finishers, this race tends to attract top class future stars who go onto win arkles, champion hurdles,gold cups,world hurdles etc etc and even the odd Gold Cup at Ascot has been known [Rite of Passage 20/1]
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RSA Chase - some pointers
irish bred have a good record so put a line through the rest [keep in Paul Nicholls french breds]
7 and 8 year olds have dominated this 14/16, if you really want to chance it then concentrate on the 7yo"s only...
form matters in this so a 1st or 2nd in the previous race is a must, put a line through the rest...
you need a horse that has had at least 3 races over fences, put a line through any horse with less experience than this..
put a line through any horse with a jockey that has not won at Cheltenham in the current or prior season [obv you don"t get many but you do get some eg - Jan Faltejsek, R M Power and Mattie Batchelor are recent examples]
not many pointers but it will discount quite a few... take a closer look at horses on your shortlist that have had prep runs in the Novice Chase at Newbury [in Feb], the Reynoldstown Novices Chase at Ascot [in Feb], the Dr.P.J Moriarty Novice Chase at Leopardstown and the Feltham novices chase at Kempton...
hopefully the above will increse your chances of finding a winner, good luck....
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=497502&r_date=2010-03-17&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=473173&r_date=2009-03-11&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=447771&r_date=2008-03-13&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=422748&r_date=2007-03-14&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=398284&r_date=2006-03-15&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=366076&r_date=2005-03-16&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=344210&r_date=2004-03-17&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=326500&r_date=2003-03-12&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=310634&r_date=2002-03-13&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=276071&r_date=2000-03-15&popup=yes
[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8A8VfACxUFU[/youtube]
hmmm ;D
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Top stuff Noble. Thanks for all the stats and video analysis.
Only just getting round to updating my trends for the festival so need to get a move on as it starts 3 weeks today. Unfortunately I have no holiday left so have to be at work. Sky+ and avoiding the internet & radio FTW
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Four days to go, so i will fly through some stats for the Festival........
Queen Mother Champion Chase
key races -
Tingle Creek Chase
Tied Cottage Chase
2010 Arkle Chase
The Tingle Creek is usually ran at Sandown, but this year was ran at Cheltenham... Horses that ran in the Tingle prior to the Queen Mother have a good record, 8 of the last 10 winners contested this race...
Big Zeb won the Tied Cottage Chase last season before going on to win the QM, just to put a spanner in the works he lost to Golden Silver this year !!
The previous years Arkle winner for the last 12 years has finished 1st or 2nd [10/12] the other 2 finishing 3rd....
Look for horses that have won over 2m2f or are CD winners...
In recent years there is a strong trend for horses rated 160+ and have previously won a grade 1 race in there racing career, 8 of the last 9 winners having done so....
The last 13 winners had no more than 4 races that racing season..
there you go, short "n" sweet.....
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Coral Cup (Handicap Hurdle)
In the last 10 runnings French breds have won 5 times, Irish breds have won 4 times.. It maybe worth sticking a line through the rest :)
10 of the last 11 winners were aged under 8....
No horse has won with a OR above 147....
6 of the last 8 winners had won last time out.... [Spirit River last years winner ran in the Totesport Trophy finishing 17th] [last time out winners filled the 1-2-3 in 2009]
Put a line through the favourite, there record is 2 from the last 17....
The Totesport Trophy has been a guide in recent years, horses that contested this race have gone onto win the Coral 3 times in the last 6 years....
5,6 and 7 year olds have won 9 of the last 10 races....
As per usual JP McManus owned horses are ones to watch out for, he does like a horse to be primed for this race with a betting coup in mind.... ;D
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Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle
Not much in the way of strong trends as this race has only been running since 2005....
5 out of 6 winners of this race had won last time out..
David Pipe has a good record upto now, a winner, 2x2nds and a 3rd in the last 4 years
In all of the 6 races only 6 horses priced less than 10/1 have finished in the top 7 !!!
4/6 winners were in the top 1/3 of the handicap...
Fillies have won 2 out of 6
All 6 winners were beaten in there first 2 hurdle races !!
Sandown CD winners have won 3/4 last runnings [Kayef and Kumbeshwar are the only ones with this stat running this year, of the 2 Scudamore"s could be the dark horse, having just acquired his handicap !! ]
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Champion Bumper
Irish trained and Irish bred dominate this, put a line through the rest imho..... [Cue Card was Irish bred from King"s Theatre and won at 40/1 last year]
The last 4 winners of this race were all unbeaten previously.....
Last time out winners have won 16/18....
14/18 were in the top 6 of the betting.... [see below - favourites]
Willie Mullins has won this 6 times in the last 14 years, 5 of his winners were once raced 5 year olds !! [Lord Gale and Allure Of Illusion are the Mullins once raced 5 year olds for this year]
In recent times since 95, 4 year olds had a terrible winning record until last year when Cue Card won, but it may pay to stick with the 5 and 6 year olds... [put a line through the 4 year olds :)]
Only 2 favourites have won in the last 10 years....
Put a line through French bred horses....
Five of the last eight winners had no race prior in the calendar year....
Thats the last race of day 2, if you are feeling the crippling effects of Cheltenham then at least on day 3 St. Patricks day, a nice drop or two of Guinness will numb it... :)
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You"ve been busy again noble.Have all weekend free and the mrs is away. The form book will be getting devoured.
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Champion hurdle fav Binocular out. That makes it easier only 5 viable winners to choose from. :(
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Champion hurdle fav Binocular out. That makes it easier only 5 viable winners to choose from. :(
Thats the value gone out of the market now...couldn"t see Binocular winning it anyway.
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I"m taking on Cue Card in the first, his jumping is not all that great imho, plus the bookies are going to refund losing bets if he wins! [hmmm not a good sign]
Spirit Son i will look to take on, so after a bit of whittling down i have backed three outsiders in the first race...
1:30 - Rathlin, Magen"s Star and Gibb River
2:05 - Realt Dubh and Captain Chris
2:40 - Adams Island and Slippers Percy
3:20 - Peddlers Cross
4:00 - Freneys Well [ew]
4:40 - Quevega
5:15 - Divers and Definity
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please note these guys are fallible :)
panel introductions
[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ludnBQVCww[/youtube]
supreme novices
[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7XjhHffSZHw[/youtube]
arkle
[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C8gAeXQyKqk[/youtube]
champion hurdle
[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ypbaW4sy_W8[/youtube]
hmmm Cheltenham Bankers ::)
[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bdtBiu7OSNY[/youtube]
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my picks for tomorrow
1.30 recession proof
2.05 realt dubh
2.40 razor royale, wolf moon (both EW)
3.20 peddlers cross
4.00 garde champette
4.40 sparky may
5.15 american trilogy (EW)
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Got to take on Cue Card with Paddy Power"s promotion of money back if it wins...a field full of unexposed novices to take him on with. The Champion Hurdle has just given me a massive headache so decided to go with 2 outsiders instead. Quevega will win the mares hurdle but can"t back it at the forecast prices. Going with 2 for most races so....
1.30 Spirit Son + Magens Star
2.05 Medermit
2.40 Caroles Legacy (NAP) + King Fontaine
3.20 Dunguib + Kyber Kim
4.00 Maljimar + Poker de Sivola
4.40 Quevega + L"accordiniste
5.15 Tullamore Dew + Tharawaat
Good luck everyone...here"s hoping for a profitable start! ;D
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That"s my main lot for the day. One or two wee nibblers for fun on the side, but this is the main bunch...
13:30 Cheltenham Marsh Warbler e/w
14:05 Cheltenham Captain Chris e/w
14:40 Cheltenham Blazing Bailey e/w
15:20 Cheltenham Hurricane Fly win
16:00 Cheltenham L"Ami e/w
16:40 Cheltenham Banjaxed Girl e/w
17:15 Cheltenham Definity win
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I will fly through day three with some pointers..
1:30 - Jewson Novices Chase
A new race for this year, it will suit horses not quite quick enough for the Arkle but who have stamina doubts for the RSA.
To improve the chances of getting a winner i would look out for these form pointers -
1. Favour a horse if it has had a win over hurdles in pattern company..
2. 1st or 2nd last time out is a plus...
3. Horses 8 years or older - put a line through them, favour the younger improvers...
4. Be on the look out when reading the form for horses that have ran well against Arkle and RSA fancied horses...
2:05 - Pertemps Final (Handicap Hurdle)
A race in which is normally a major betting heat, lots of talking horses get stuffed in this year in year out.. Some big priced winners have won over recent years, since 2004 in order the prices have been - 50/1 10/1 50/1 14/1 18/1 16/1 16/1... Do not just focus on recent winners but instead try to spot horses that will improve for different ground conditions or who may be suited to the Cheltenham track...
Trends for the race
1. Put a line through any 5 year old and anything 10+ years old...
2. 9 of the last 15 races were won by horses winning last time out..
3. Put a line through horses running out of the handicap...
4. If the horse is rated 150+ then generally don"t hesitate to put a line through it..
5. Put a line through the favourite...
6. 15/21 winners of this race have been 7 to 9 years old [the other 6 have been 6 year olds]
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=345220&r_date=2004-03-16&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=374164&r_date=2005-03-17&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=400340&r_date=2006-03-16&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=424599&r_date=2007-03-15&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=449566&r_date=2008-03-13&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=474816&r_date=2009-03-12&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=499101&r_date=2010-03-18&popup=yes
2:40 - Ryanair Chase
The Paddy Power Gold Cup, the Boylesports Gold Cup and the King George VI Chase have been good pointers, so look over these races carefuly imho... Peterborough Chase and Ascot Chase winners have a terrible record in this race...
trends -
1. 11/12 winners had won at Cheltenham before...
2. The last six winners were rated 152 to 157...
3. Horses prominent in the betting have won 5/6 [6/1 and less] Albertas Run win at 14/1 last year maybe a blip?
4. Put a line through Irish trained horses, there record is atrocious....
5. Put a line through the top rated horse...
3:20 - Ladbrokes World Hurdle
You have to go back to 1999 for the last double figure priced horse winning this, so imho concentrate on horses at the head of the market... The Cleeve Hurdle and Long Walk Hurdle are the best guides as to the form....
trends -
1. No 5 year old has ever won, put the line through them :)
2. Previous runs in the festival over the years are a plus, 15 of the last 17 winners had this stat...
3. 6 to 8 year olds have a great record 20 wins out of the last 21 runnings....
4. There has not been a Irish trained winner since 1995...
5. French breds have won 5 of the last 9 runnings...
6. 14 of the last 16 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out...
7. The 1-2-3 has been made up of horses in the top 5 of the betting 6 times out of the last 7 races...
8. Only 12 favourites have won this race since 1972...
4:00 - Byrne Group Plate (Handicap Chase) - formerly called The Festival Plate, The Racing Post Plate and The Mildmay of Flete ;D
With the introduction of the Jewson Handicap specifically for novices the trends/form pointers for this may go squee whiff, so keep this in mind :)
trends -
1. 21/23 winners were rated 141 or less...
2. Put a line through any horse carrying more than 11 stone...
3. French breds have a excellent record in this, they have won 6 of the last 11 races and have had 4 runner ups...
4. Put a line through the favourite...
5. Put a line through Irish trained horses..
6. 17 of the last 19 winners had all ran in previous years at the Festival...
7. 17/19 previous winners had finished in the top 4 last time out...
8. Horses aged 8 years or more have a good record in this race, winning 7 of the last 10 runnings.....
9. All of the last 10 winners had won over 2m3f......
10. Since 2000 all the winners have been double figure prices [Mister McGoldrick 66/1 in 2007]
11. 10 of the last 12 winners had ran no more than 16 times over fences before their win.....
4:40 - Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup (Handicap Chase)
Amateur jockeys are a nightmare so this race is tough to predict, try to assess the jockey just as much as the horse would be my advice :)
trends -
1. Only 2 favourites have won the race in the last 11 years....
2. There has not been an Irish trained winner of this race for 27 years.....
3. 6 of the last 8 winners were unplaced in their previous race....
4. Put a line through all 7 year olds and younger.....
5. 5 out of the last 7 winners were rated between 124 and 128....
6. Top weight has won the last two runnings...
7. 5 of the last 6 winners were ridden by non-claiming amateurs.......
and that is the end of Day 3, hopefully the above will help in sorting out your short lists....
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1.30 11 Spirit Son
2.05 4 Ghizao
2.40 4 Great Endeavour
3.20 10 Peddlers Cross
4.00 11 Poker De Sivola E/W
4.40 3 Quevega
5.15 11 Definty E/W
Have not put any money as some of you know I'm off gambling :P
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Today including lucky 15s ,i had 11 bets. Total profit £6.37. FML this time next year rodney we,all be millionaires. :(
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I"m taking on Cue Card in the first, his jumping is not all that great imho, plus the bookies are going to refund losing bets if he wins! [hmmm not a good sign]
Spirit Son i will look to take on, so after a bit of whittling down i have backed three outsiders in the first race...
1:30 - Rathlin, Magen"s Star and Gibb River
2:05 - Realt Dubh and Captain Chris
2:40 - Adams Island and Slippers Percy
3:20 - Peddlers Cross
4:00 - Freneys Well [ew]
4:40 - Quevega
5:15 - Divers and Definity
an ok day, traded for some good profit with Rathlin and Magen"s Star, slight loss on Gibb River.. Let my money ride on Captain Chris and Peddlers Cross [well done Hurricane Fly, thought Peddlers would out stay]
lost my doh on Adams Island and Slippers Percy...Freneys Well was a small in running trade profit, Quevega i had lumped on something chronic, traded out in running on Definity for a slight loss and Divers never looked like losing 3 out imo...
my tomorrows fancies have a few question marks regarding the ground, so i"ll hold back till the ground is confirmed..
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ROI = -100% after day 1
gg me
picks for tomorrow
1.30. aberdale.
2.05. oscars well.
2.40. wayward prince.
3.20. master minded.
4.00. tiger O"toole, carlito brigante, dantari (all E/W)
4.40. whitby jack.
5.15. twentyfourcarat, lord gale. tusa eire (all E/W)
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Not easy tomorrow at all, struggling to find a decent bet.
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Aegean Dawn & Master Minded double FTW ;)
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Got to take on Cue Card with Paddy Power"s promotion of money back if it wins...a field full of unexposed novices to take him on with. The Champion Hurdle has just given me a massive headache so decided to go with 2 outsiders instead. Quevega will win the mares hurdle but can"t back it at the forecast prices. Going with 2 for most races so....
1.30 Spirit Son + Magens Star
2.05 Medermit
2.40 Caroles Legacy (NAP) + King Fontaine
3.20 Dunguib + Kyber Kim
4.00 Maljimar + Poker de Sivola
4.40 Quevega + L"accordiniste
5.15 Tullamore Dew + Tharawaat
Good luck everyone...here"s hoping for a profitable start! ;D
A decent day, had a couple of close calls! Decided to back Bensalem after listening to a Choc Thornton interview. So ended up have the 1st,2nd,4th and 5th in that race from my 4 runners! Spirit Son would have made it a very good day, damn Ruby!
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A very hard day, the ground has come wrong for my 2 antepost bets Master Minded and Star Neuville in the bumper..so hoping for live ones at big prices.
1.30 Sona Sasta, Major Malarkey, Captain Americo
2.05 So Young, Tornado Bob
2.40 Aiteenthirtythree, Wayward Prince
3.20 Master Minded, Mad Max
4.00 Lightening Strike (NAP), Solix, Orsippius
4.40 Celtus, Paintball
5.15 Star Neuville, Divine Rhapsody
Good luck everyone.
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I"m feeling pretty sick at the moment.... :-[
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I"m feeling pretty sick at the moment.... :-[
I would imagine that there are a few bookies having a drink or two around the bars in Cheltenham tonight. I would guess the day was carnage for a lot of punters.
But, as was posted on here by a lot of people, the card today was a really tough one to bet on.
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Right then, had two busy days of work, but can now look forward to two busy days of Cheltenham Festival.
Going to hit tomorrows card hard, and will post up my picks either late tonight or first thing in the morning.
Bookies Beware. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D
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ROI = -100% after day 1
gg me
picks for tomorrow
1.30. aberdale.
2.05. oscars well.
2.40. wayward prince.
3.20. master minded.
4.00. tiger O"toole, carlito brigante, dantari (all E/W)
4.40. whitby jack.
5.15. twentyfourcarat, lord gale. tusa eire (all E/W)
needed that one - ROI is now -35%
tomorrow donkeys
1.30 loosen my load
2.05 mr moonshine, tarablaze (both EW)
2.40 poquelin
3.20 big bucks
4.00 I"m a legend, bible lord (both EW)
4.40 sadlers storm
5.15 devil to pay
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2:05 - Pertemps Final (Handicap Hurdle)
Kayf Aramis and Tarablaze [see Robs post above, kiss of death? ;)]
2:40 - Ryanair Chase
Albertas Run
3:20 - Ladbrokes World Hurdle
Big Buck"s and Celestial Halo [ew tickle] non runner :(
4:00 - Byrne Group Plate (Handicap Chase)
Holmwood Legend and Peplum
4:40 - Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup (Handicap Chase)
Can"t Buy Time and Richard"s Sundance
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Did"nt get involved much today, quite glad really or it could have been carnage.I"m sweet on Wishfull Thinking tomorrow, so there"s a good lay for everybody.
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As the ground was too quick for my ante-post fancies today, and i have backed Albertas Run it is bound to lash it down tonight!!!
Really is a far better horse on quicker ground as it showed last year, i just hope its fall 2 starts ago hasn"t made its mark.
Quite fancy the chances of Mr Gardener in the Jewson but not really looked in the race in depth.
Leaving the World Hurdle alone....can see Grand Crus coming to challenge as Time for Rupert did last year but Big Bucks just pulling out more, but betting at evens to find that out doesn"t appeal...i have lost enough already ;D
Final picks to follow tommorow FWIW
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My bets for today are probably a bit on the loopy side. To be fair, I"ve been wide awake since 2:00am so I blame lack of sleep. lol Here ya go...
1:30 Blazing Tempo e/w
2:05 Viking Blond e/w
2:40 Gauvain e/w
3:20 Restless Harry e/w (silly bet, but as I"m up at omg a.m. thought it was appropriate)
3:20 Cross Kennon e/w (liked the name - blaming lack of sleep lol)
4:00 Quartz De Thaix win
4:40 Fredo e/w (come on the Irish!!! win would be mighty, but a place will do too)
4:40 Galant Nuit win
That"s today"s lot. Happy St. Paddy"s Day all and let"s gogogogogogo!!!!!
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Let"s GO GO GO
1:30 Noble Prince (WIN), Mr Cracker (EW)
2:05 Barafundle (WIN), Knockara Beau (EW)
2:40 Albertas Run (WIN), Voy Por Ustedes (EW)
3:20 Backed Grand Crus at 17.5 in Antepost, layed a bit off, so will steer clear today.
4:00 Bible Lord (EW), Plein Pouvoir (EW)
4:40 Far More Serious (WIN), Cornish Sett (EW)
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1.30 7 Noble Prince
2.05 8 Lush Life
2.40 7 Poquelin
3.20 4 Big Bucks
4.00 9 Quartz De Thaix
4.40 8 Mostly Bob
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here we go....
1.30 Mr Gardener, Loosen My Load
2.05 Kayf Aramis, Rivage D"or
2.40 Albertas Run (NAP), Rubi Light
3.20 Big Bucks, Mourad
4.00 Beautiful Sound, Aimigayle
4.40 Billie Magern, Deal Done
Good luck everyone....hoping for a few winners today!
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here we go....
1.30 Mr Gardener, Loosen My Load
2.05 Kayf Aramis, Rivage D"or
2.40 Albertas Run (NAP), Rubi Light
3.20 Big Bucks, Mourad
4.00 Beautiful Sound, Aimigayle
4.40 Billie Magern, Deal Done
Good luck everyone....hoping for a few winners today!
just to give u some confidence redders up above i have bolded what i"d consider sound selections with a decent chance [if things fall right]
good picks imho no matter what the out come.. :)
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Let"s GO GO GO
1:30 Noble Prince (WIN), Mr Cracker (EW)
2:05 Barafundle (WIN), Knockara Beau (EW)
2:40 Albertas Run (WIN), Voy Por Ustedes (EW)
3:20 Backed Grand Crus at 17.5 in Antepost, layed a bit off, so will steer clear today.
4:00 Bible Lord (EW), Plein Pouvoir (EW)
4:40 Far More Serious (WIN), Cornish Sett (EW)
Great jump over the last. Wiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii
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Let"s GO GO GO
1:30 Noble Prince (WIN), Mr Cracker (EW)
2:05 Barafundle (WIN), Knockara Beau (EW)
2:40 Albertas Run (WIN), Voy Por Ustedes (EW)
3:20 Backed Grand Crus at 17.5 in Antepost, layed a bit off, so will steer clear today.
4:00 Bible Lord (EW), Plein Pouvoir (EW)
4:40 Far More Serious (WIN), Cornish Sett (EW)
Great jump over the last. Wiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii
peaked to early? ;)
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Pretty Standard stuff. It"s all downhill from here. :D
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Let"s GO GO GO
1:30 Noble Prince (WIN), Mr Cracker (EW)
2:05 Barafundle (WIN), Knockara Beau (EW)
2:40 Albertas Run (WIN), Voy Por Ustedes (EW)
3:20 Backed Grand Crus at 17.5 in Antepost, layed a bit off, so will steer clear today.
4:00 Bible Lord (EW), Plein Pouvoir (EW)
4:40 Far More Serious (WIN), Cornish Sett (EW)
Wiiiiiiiiii, take the place at 33/1
Buena Vista looked good.
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Let"s GO GO GO
1:30 Noble Prince (WIN), Mr Cracker (EW)
2:05 Barafundle (WIN), Knockara Beau (EW)
2:40 Albertas Run (WIN), Voy Por Ustedes (EW)
3:20 Backed Grand Crus at 17.5 in Antepost, layed a bit off, so will steer clear today.
4:00 Bible Lord (EW), Plein Pouvoir (EW)
4:40 Far More Serious (WIN), Cornish Sett (EW)
Wiiiiiiiiii, take the place at 33/1
Beuna Vista looked good.
lol made my shortlist, i plumped for 2, sadly Vista didn"t make the cut :) very good front running indeed..
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Let"s GO GO GO
1:30 Noble Prince (WIN), Mr Cracker (EW)
2:05 Barafundle (WIN), Knockara Beau (EW)
2:40 Albertas Run (WIN), Voy Por Ustedes (EW)
3:20 Backed Grand Crus at 17.5 in Antepost, layed a bit off, so will steer clear today.
4:00 Bible Lord (EW), Plein Pouvoir (EW)
4:40 Far More Serious (WIN), Cornish Sett (EW)
PAY ME ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D
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Let"s GO GO GO
1:30 Noble Prince (WIN), Mr Cracker (EW)
2:05 Barafundle (WIN), Knockara Beau (EW)
2:40 Albertas Run (WIN), Voy Por Ustedes (EW)
3:20 Backed Grand Crus at 17.5 in Antepost, layed a bit off, so will steer clear today.
4:00 Bible Lord (EW), Plein Pouvoir (EW)
4:40 Far More Serious (WIN), Cornish Sett (EW)
PAY ME ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D
i"ll lay your selections 3.20 onwards :)
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Don"t think that the World Hurdle is as much of a two horse race as some may think. Got a couple of cheeky place bets on Restless Harry & Powerstation.
I think Big Bucks will win it, not sure Grands Crus will even place.
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Don"t think that the World Hurdle is as much of a two horse race as some may think. Got a couple of cheeky place bets on Restless Harry & Powerstation.
I think Big Bucks will win it, not sure Grands Crus will even place.
yep if there is a big upset i"d fancy Restless Harry or Berties Dream to do it..
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=497798&r_date=2010-03-19&popup=yes
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here we go....
1.30 Mr Gardener, Loosen My Load
2.05 Kayf Aramis, Rivage D"or
2.40 Albertas Run (NAP), Rubi Light
3.20 Big Bucks, Mourad
4.00 Beautiful Sound, Aimigayle
4.40 Billie Magern, Deal Done
Good luck everyone....hoping for a few winners today!
Really did fancy Albertas Run, given me ammo now so on Big Bucks with Mourad as a saver....was going to leave it alone and watch but the ground is against Grand Crus whereas Big Bucks loves the ground.
Still playing catch up!
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Don"t think that the World Hurdle is as much of a two horse race as some may think. Got a couple of cheeky place bets on Restless Harry & Powerstation.
I think Big Bucks will win it, not sure Grands Crus will even place.
Laid both in running, and they both ran out of legs.
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Don"t think that the World Hurdle is as much of a two horse race as some may think. Got a couple of cheeky place bets on Restless Harry & Powerstation.
I think Big Bucks will win it, not sure Grands Crus will even place.
Laid both in running, and they both ran out of legs.
break even?
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here we go....
1.30 Mr Gardener, Loosen My Load
2.05 Kayf Aramis, Rivage D"or
2.40 Albertas Run (NAP), Rubi Light
3.20 Big Bucks, Mourad
4.00 Beautiful Sound, Aimigayle
4.40 Billie Magern, Deal Done
Good luck everyone....hoping for a few winners today!
ahhhhhhhhhh, either would have got me back in profit overall!
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Don"t think that the World Hurdle is as much of a two horse race as some may think. Got a couple of cheeky place bets on Restless Harry & Powerstation.
I think Big Bucks will win it, not sure Grands Crus will even place.
Laid both in running, and they both ran out of legs.
break even?
Yeah, was freerolling if either placed
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2:05 - Pertemps Final (Handicap Hurdle)
Kayf Aramis and Tarablaze [see Robs post above, kiss of death? ;)]
2:40 - Ryanair Chase
Albertas Run
3:20 - Ladbrokes World Hurdle
Big Buck"s and Celestial Halo [ew tickle] non runner :(
4:00 - Byrne Group Plate (Handicap Chase)
Holmwood Legend and Peplum
4:40 - Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup (Handicap Chase)
Can"t Buy Time and Richard"s Sundance
good profits today, i had a good day on the lays as well... last day tomorrow with on paper, a great gold cup battle...
so onwards and upwards, a few pints tonight, a good nights sleep and then sit back and watch some great racing [BLISS]
the stats are still pointing in the right direction in the main, i hope someone on APAT has found them useful.. anyhows BASH THE BOOKIE and have a good"un Friday everyone....
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Lets run good today today folks, had a winning day yesterday .I"ve got a fre £60 free bet from billy hills to use today and im on holiday .Happy days.
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Picks for today (some of the lesser races not looked in depth)
1.30 Sam Winner (NAP), Midnight Drive
2.05 Alivan, Grey Soldier, Saldon Licht
2.40 Bobs Worth
3.20 All the 6 market leaders have questions to answer so small stakes on
Neptune Collonges, Tidal Bay
4.00 Baby Run
4.40 Shoegazer, Barizan
5.15 Oh Crick, De Boitron
Good luck everyone!
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1.30 - Grandouet and Unaccompanied
2.05 - Alarazi and Tarkari ew
2.40 - Kilcrea Kim and Join Together
3.20 - Long Run and Kempes
4.00 - Just Amazing and Sericina ew
4.40 - Prince Du Seuil and Mister Hyde ew
5.15 - Shoreacres and Keki Buku ew
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That took a while :D
1:30 Grandouet, First Fandango (ew)
2:05 Alarazi, Ciceron (ew)
2:40 Kilcrea Kim, Jet Nova (ew)
3:20 Kempes, Long Run
4:00 Just Amazing, Reach For The Top (ew)
4:40 Mister Hyde, Kauto Relko (ew)
5:15 Anquetta, Grand Lahou (ew)
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1.30 - Grandouet and Unaccompanied
2.05 - Alarazi and Tarkari ew
2.40 - Kilcrea Kim and Join Together
3.20 - Long Run and Kempes
4.00 - Just Amazing and Sericina ew
4.40 - Prince Du Seuil and Mister Hyde ew
5.15 - Shoreacres and Keki Buku ew
Errrrr, just saw this for comparison. Hope we both have a good day. ;D
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Side note - http://competitions.ladbrokes.com/ruk/ Click on the wee bubble at the bottom where it says "view competition leaderboard". That name at the top is me. Except I don"t live in the UK so doubt they"ll pay me the money. How bad do I run? lol Sigh.
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Side note - http://competitions.ladbrokes.com/ruk/ Click on the wee bubble at the bottom where it says "view competition leaderboard". That name at the top is me. Except I don"t live in the UK so doubt they"ll pay me the money. How bad do I run? lol Sigh.
ul dawn, lie and say ur on holiday, but live over in england :)
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That took a while :D
1:30 Grandouet, First Fandango (ew)
2:05 Alarazi, Ciceron (ew)
2:40 Kilcrea Kim, Jet Nova (ew)
3:20 Kempes, Long Run
4:00 Just Amazing, Reach For The Top (ew)
4:40 Mister Hyde, Kauto Relko (ew)
5:15 Anquetta, Grand Lahou (ew)
with luck they"ll all give u a good run for your money :) Ciceron has claims to win it, so should be a solid each way imho..
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Wonder if anyone won a Tricast on the last race..... :)
1. Oiseau de Nuit 40-1
2. Askthemaster 50-1
3. Leo"s Lucky Star 20-1
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Wonder if anyone won a Tricast on the last race..... :)
1. Oiseau de Nuit 40-1
2. Askthemaster 50-1
3. Leo"s Lucky Star 20-1
The odds of that probably far outweigh the odds! ;D
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Here's my 1st of many as the festival looms up long"ish ""short list"" for this years Cheltenham 2012, early days yet mind and i will try to keep an open mind right up to the weekend before the meeting, so picks might and will probably change.. Just spent the night watching the superbowl and going over the potential runners, the Gold Cup looks wide open this year, i"ve had a wee rare for me ante post dabble on Quito De La Roque his Lexus run i"ve ignored :) with the proximity of Roberto Goldbeck i think Quito just had a off day and will put up a far better performance in the Hennessey.... [i hope as then his odds will tumble for the GC]
So after watching a few races, reading up on trainers comments etc and doing some number crunching on my abacus my tentative picks and long shots at the mo are -
Champion Hurdle - Hurricane Fly
World Hurdle - Big Bucks
the 1st 2 should be nailed on lol... :)
Arkle - Peddlers Cross
Neptune - Simonsig to upset current fav Boston Bob [i"m hoping]
RSA - Last Instalment and First Lieutenant
Ryanair - Quel Esprit [if he runs] or Blazing Tempo [possibles to cause a upset]
Albert Bartlett - Sword of Destiny at a nice price is interesting
Gold Cup - Quito de la Roque, Quel Esprit [if he runs] Grand Crus [cant ignore him, i hope connections decide to give him a go in the big"un]
not long to go :)
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Champion Hurdle - Hurricane Fly
World Hurdle - Big Bucks
the 1st 2 should be nailed on lol... :)
Absolutely agree with this, otherwise we might as well just all pack it in.
Arkle - Peddlers Cross
Neptune - Simonsig to upset current fav Boston Bob [i"m hoping]
RSA - Last Instalment and First Lieutenant
Ryanair - Quel Esprit [if he runs] or Blazing Tempo [possibles to cause a upset]
Albert Bartlett - Sword of Destiny at a nice price is interesting
Gold Cup - Quito de la Roque, Quel Esprit [if he runs] Grand Crus [cant ignore him, i hope connections decide to give him a go in the big"un]
Always been a follower of Grand Crus, so hoping they make the right decision.
Sword of Destiny is an interesting pick. ;)
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Champion Hurdle - Hurricane Fly
World Hurdle - Big Bucks
the 1st 2 should be nailed on lol... :)
Absolutely agree with this, otherwise we might as well just all pack it in.
Agreed - I have one ante post bet (which is not normally my thing) on all 4 champions retaining their titles
Hurricane and bucks are bomb proof and I loved how sizing Europe won last weekend - hopefully will be able to lay long run in the gold cup after the first 3 have gone in
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If super Saturday goes ahead keep any eye on the betfair hurdle - 3 coral cup winners and 4 county hurdle winners have run in it in the last 8 years...
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Mixed bag at Leopardstown today;
First Lieutenant did it well in the Moriarty and should be a player at the festival
Hennessy was a weak race (don"t understand why there were no British raiders), won well by Quel Esprit but he is surely looking at a place in the gold cup at best
50/1 rag won the deloitte so that cannot be a good race either
Dermot Weld juvenile won the grade 1 but again not sure if he beat much
Irish have some obvious big festival chances with Hurricane Fly and Sizing Europe - but I think they will struggle to match the volume of winners they got last year, don"t look to have the strength in depth
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Neptune - one more that i"ve had a dabble on :) - Colour Squadron , i fancy him to improve [a lot] running left handed, especially based on what i saw of him in the Tolworth running right handed.... i"ve got on @ 16/1...
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Holiday signed off at work - managed to get the entire week off
Just over 3 weeks till the off, trends done for all the races on Tuesday & Wednesday, more work to do for the other 2 days
CANNOT WAIT!!!
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There is nothing better than the festival.
Tuesday sprinter scare, hurricane fly, quevega treble al ferof ,uncle junior e/w double
wed grand crus sizing europe double
thurs lump all winnings on big bucks
fri sit back and enjoy a gold cup without betting
will certainly have a wee dable in other races LOVE the festival
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Just over a week to go and iv,e just about finished studying day 1 :(. I"m always looking to get the short price runners beat and sprinter sacre is top of the list , could just be a flat course horse imo. Also was"nt convinced by the top 2 in the market in the gold cup (even before kauto"s injury scare) and feel a big upset could be on the cards.Will post more tomorrow.
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Peddlers Cross to miss Arkle and runs in Jewson instead;
http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/donald-mccain/donald-mccain-peddlers-cross-to-run-in-jewson-050312.html (http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/donald-mccain/donald-mccain-peddlers-cross-to-run-in-jewson-050312.html)
Looks like McCain doesn"t see Peddlers reversing form with Sprinter Sacre so has taken the "easy" option
Like the look of Al Ferof in this race all the more now - the top rated hurdler in the Arkle field is great from a trends points of view
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Peddlers Cross to miss Arkle and runs in Jewson instead;
http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/donald-mccain/donald-mccain-peddlers-cross-to-run-in-jewson-050312.html (http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/donald-mccain/donald-mccain-peddlers-cross-to-run-in-jewson-050312.html)
Looks like McCain doesn"t see Peddlers reversing form with Sprinter Sacre so has taken the "easy" option
Like the look of Al Ferof in this race all the more now - the top rated hurdler in the Arkle field is great from a trends points of view
yep its a shame Peddlers won"t be seen taking on Sacre.... i quite like the profile of Cristal Bonus for the Jewson, a pacey sort, a french bred/import who looks like he is improving very rapidly based on his kempton win in the Pendil nov ch.
6 or 7"s is a reasonable price for CB atm so worth a wee punt imho, ignore his previous runs at chelters over hurdles and his odds to win the Jewson would be more like 3 to 4"s in my book [allowing for the connections]...
chelters is looming large.... weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee :)
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Just managed to win a free £50 bet from oddschecker.com
http://www.oddschecker.com/promotions.html (http://www.oddschecker.com/promotions.html)
Hope the run good continues next week
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Cheltenham Day 1
It is finally here - let battle commence
First thing is that the bookies are cutting each others throats to get you to bet with them - lots of special terms like 5 places and cashback offers if your selection finishes 2nd or loses to a named horse so shop around to get the best value out there.
I think it is going to be a very good day for W P Mullins & R Walsh
1.30 Supreme Novice Hurdle
Trifolium, Allure Of Illusion & Tetlami
2.05 Arkle Chase
Al Ferof (will back with a certain Irish bookmaker who will give you your money back if Sprinter Sacre wins)
2.40 JLT Handicap Chase
Tullamore Dew, Fruity O Rooney & Billie Magern
3.20 Champion Hurdle
Hurricane Fly & Zaidpour (EW)
4.00 Cross Country Chase
Scotsirish & Tally Em Up (EW)
4.40 Mares Hurdle
Quevega & Terre Du Vent (EW)
5.15 Pulteney Novices Handicap Chase
Going Wrong, Ackertac & Owen Glendower
GL to all having a bet
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My picks
1.30 steps to freedom
2.05 al ferof
2.40 rogues dancer EW
3.20 zaidpour EW, hurricane fly
4.00 sizing Australia, garde champetre EW
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So excited!!
1.30 - Montbazon, Vulcanite
2.05 - Al Ferof (also with a certain irish bookmaker!)
2.40 - Hold on Julio, Baile Anrai
3.20 - Oscars well
4.00 - Garde Champetere
4.40 - Swincome Flame, Terra du Vent
5.15 - Going Wrong, Charminster, Harpsy Cord
Good luck and happy viewing!
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Cheltenham Gold Cup day on Friday to look forward to and the drunken mess that is a day out with my mates, so i"m looking for a bit of help to cover the majority of races. I always do a yankee from 4 horses through the day, this year of course will be no exception, but the first 4 Friday tips on this page will decide where my money goes for a change, and believe me this couldn"t possibly be any worse than my own previous attempts over the years so you"re all doing me a favour!
So basically I"m looking for 4 individuals to give me a tip each and that"s it :)
Cheers Rob, as if Id ignore any tip of yours ::)
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I"ve backed these ones on betfair
1.30 - Cinders and Ashes (11.5)
2.05 - Al Ferof (4.6)
2.40 - Fruity O Rooney (20)
4.00 - Wedger Pardy (32)
5.15 - Mic"s Delight (17.5) - Although I was extremely tempted by Falcon Island at 110 in the same race
I"ve also backed Turjuman at 5.7 in the 17.05 at Southwell
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good luck everyone...
1:30 - Galileo"s Choice , Dylan Ross plus i had a ante post dabble :) on Colour Squadron
2:05 - Menorah - i like Al Ferof but not my sort of price, i can"t back Sprinter Sacre at such a short price plus this race is a death ground for favourites, so that leaves Menorah who loves a long break to produce his best, that logic along with his Chelters stats when there is a bit of cut may see him improve upon his current chase stats :) at 9/1 ish i cannot resist ;D
2:40 - Magnanimity - [interesting entry by Gigginstown Stud, well weighted based on his RSA 4th last year, poor form this season but a fair to hopeful run lto gives me a bit of hope]
3:20 - Zaidpour EW - the odds the bookies are offering about Zaidpour for the Champion Hurdle are way too big imho.. he flopped on fast ground the only time he has tackled it in the Supreme Novices last year, a seriously smart horse on soft ground plus rather big odds make this a worth while each way punt imo, i can"t totally dismiss him based on 1 race on quick going...
8 of the last 17 Champion Hurdle winners that ran at the Cheltenham Festival the next season went on to repeat their big race success. So statistically at any rate ;D, the even ish money that the bookies are currently offering about Hurricane Fly winning the top hurdle race again this year are about right.... So HF is a dodge for myself betting wise.........
4:00 - Maljimar EW
4:40 - Dare To Doubt EW
5:15 - Carrickboy , Educated Evans EW
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Wowzers 90 deliveries to to by 130 then BooM popo time.
I"ve gone for
130 Montbazon (free £5 bet with laddies)
205 Cue Card
240 Hold on julio
320 Zarkanser
400 Sizing Australia
Lucky 15
GL all
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I am going to resist from betting this year, not had a bet now for 3 months but I"m tempted very very tempted I must resist, I must resist AAAARRRRRRRRRHHHHHHHH
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1-30 Darlan and midnight Game ew
2-05 Sprinter sacre and cue card ew
2-40 the package and Alfie sheerin
3-20 Hurricane fly and overturn ew
4-00 scottish and a new story ew
4-40 Quevaga
5-15 hunt ball
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My bet today 1.30 - Montbazon
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Mugs e/w double, Our Mick and Mic,s Delight
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13.30 Darlan 5E/W 5 places
14.05 Spirit Sacre
15.20 Hurricane Fly
16.00 Maljimar E/W
16.40 Kenford Grey Lady E/W
+ Spirit Sacre/Fly double
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Just found £5 in my Laddies account so It"s gone on Darlan in the first, but this does not maen I have broken the non gambling thing
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Three winning favourites on day one, but I still think it was a good day for the bookies.
Best wishes to the connections of the fatalities today. Very sad to see. :(
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Three winning favourites on day one, but I still think it was a good day for the bookies.
Best wishes to the connections of the fatalities today. Very sad to see. :(
+1 Always very sad when it happens...
Not a good day for the Irish, not a good for myself lol... I"ve lost a wee bit today, win bets, lay bets, in running, nothing went right, so i"m on form lol :)
Play for the long run and rough it out and bink a double figure SP or two and everything will look rosy again :)
Wednesday
1:30 - Alfie Spinner, Lively Baron,
2:05 - Batonnier - non runner....... the rest of my short list consisted of - Sous Les Cieux, Benefficient, Nelson"s Bridge and Monksland... i"ll dabble on the bolded :)
2:40 - Bobs Worth
3:20 - just going to watch this one :)
backing 4 in each in the next 2.....
4:00 - Cape Dutch , Featherbed Lane, Abergavenny, Star Of Angels
4:40 - Bat Masterson, Royal Bonsai, Arnaud, Dark And Dangerous
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terrible day for me - ROI = -100%
Wednesdays heroes!!
1.30 blenheim brook EW
2.05 sous les cieux
2.40 grand crus
3.20 finians rainbow
4.00 cape dutch, silverhand, saphir river (all EW)
4.40 argocat EW
5.15 champagne fever
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I"ve got the next 2 days off, so most of my betting for day 2 will be done around lunchtime tomorrow, but 2 bets lept out at me and have been placed tonight:
4.40 - I"ve no idea why, but since its introduction to the festival the Fred Winter Hurdle has been very kind to me. My only usual golden rule for this one is to only look at those who won last time out, but that"s going out of the window this time. Bat Masterson won for the first time 2 races ago in first-time blinkers. Last time out he finished 3rd beaten half a length in a grade 2 despite wandering late on, possibly due to the lack of headgear. Tomorrow the blinkers are back on, he runs off a very reasonable looking mark of 132, has 7 pounds taken off his back courtesy of Maurice Linehan who is apprentice to Jonjo O"Neill and I didn"t have to think too long about taking the price of 29 available on Betfair.
5.10 - I normally avoid betting on bumpers like the plague, but I"m comfortably in profit on the festival version. Clonbannon Lad sticks out like a sore thumb as he has won 2 from 2 and last time out slaughtered Willie Mullins" Mozoltov by 12 lengths. That beast was under consideration for a run in this race himself until a few days ago, so the 22 I"ve taken about Clonbanan Lad makes me a very happy bunny indeed.
Feel free to mock when they both get stuffed
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1.30 four commanders e.w
2.05 monksland and cottton mill ew
2-40 bobs worth or first lieutenant
3-05 sizing europe
4.00 get me out of hear and silverhand/son of flicka ew
4-40.????
5.15 new years eve or pique sous and jezki ew
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Only one bet today
Carlito Brigante 16/1 EW 4.00 GET ON !!
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Tough day yesterday - hoping for better today
1.30 Blenheim Brook & Universal Soldier
2.05 Monksland & Cotton Mill
2.40 Bobs Worth
3.20 Sizing Europe
4.00 Act Of Kalanisi, Abergavenny & Spirit River
4.40 Lemon Drop Kid, Soliwery & Argocat
5.15 Moscow Mannon
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I"ve got the next 2 days off, so most of my betting for day 2 will be done around lunchtime tomorrow, but 2 bets lept out at me and have been placed tonight:
4.40 - I"ve no idea why, but since its introduction to the festival the Fred Winter Hurdle has been very kind to me. My only usual golden rule for this one is to only look at those who won last time out, but that"s going out of the window this time. Bat Masterson won for the first time 2 races ago in first-time blinkers. Last time out he finished 3rd beaten half a length in a grade 2 despite wandering late on, possibly due to the lack of headgear. Tomorrow the blinkers are back on, he runs off a very reasonable looking mark of 132, has 7 pounds taken off his back courtesy of Maurice Linehan who is apprentice to Jonjo O"Neill and I didn"t have to think too long about taking the price of 29 available on Betfair.
5.10 - I normally avoid betting on bumpers like the plague, but I"m comfortably in profit on the festival version. Clonbannon Lad sticks out like a sore thumb as he has won 2 from 2 and last time out slaughtered Willie Mullins" Mozoltov by 12 lengths. That beast was under consideration for a run in this race himself until a few days ago, so the 22 I"ve taken about Clonbanan Lad makes me a very happy bunny indeed.
Feel free to mock when they both get stuffed
I feel distinctly less confident about my choice in the Fred Winter after reading Noel Meade"s comments in the Racing Post this morning, but undaunted I"ve added a few more I"ve backed at big prices:
1.30 Allee Garde - 8.2
2.05 Cotton Mill - 10.5
2.40 Cannington Brook - 60
4.00 Poole Master - 15.5
4.40 Bat Masterson - 29
5.15 Clonbanan Lad - 22
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Guys wonder if you can help Ive decided to have a little flutter on cheltenham done a bit of research but wonder if you can just double check to make sure ive not done anything stupid
Tea for Three/Monksland & 1st Lieutenant £ 2 e/w treble
Soll/harry the viking & bobsworth £2 e/w treble
Blenheim Brook 18-1 2.50 e/w
may also have an e/w punt on Bat Masterson @ 25-1
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Guys wonder if you can help Ive decided to have a little flutter on cheltenham done a bit of research but wonder if you can just double check to make sure ive not done anything stupid
Tea for Three/Monksland & 1st Lieutenant £ 2 e/w treble
Soll/harry the viking & bobsworth £2 e/w treble
Blenheim Brook 18-1 2.50 e/w
may also have an e/w punt on Bat Masterson @ 25-1
make sure u select a horse from different races if doing doubles trebles etc imo, maximise the win part of the bet :)
if u fancy backing a few EW but fancy doing the exotic bets, have a look at this calc - http://www.free-bet-calculator.co.uk/
it will give u a better idea of potential returns/outgoings etc :)
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rats that was an actual error on my part thought I picked horses from separate races
glad you flagged it up
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Righto had a go , no idea how this will turn out but here goes
Bet 1 ) £5 e/w on Soll ( get a free bet back on this one) 7-1
Bet 2 ) Teaforthree/Monksland and 1st Lieutenant 2/ew treble 11/2 9/2 & 5-1
Bet 3) Get me out of here 2/ew 15/2
Bet 4) Alfie Spinner 9-1 Bobsworth 4-1 and get me out of here 15-2 trixie
Bet 5) clonbannon lad £2 e/w 16-1
Bet 6) Abergavenny 14-1 £1 to win
Bet 7 Abergavenny & Bat masterson £1 e/w double
feel free to comment/ridicule etc
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Couldnt get on to post selections earlier. Had Four commanders and Simonsig so far (what a performance!! Next years RSA winner)
Rest of selections.
2.40 Grand Crus, Call The Police
3.20 Sizing Europe, Gauvain
4.00 Dare Me, Carlito Brigante, Veiled
4.40 Jackies Solitaire, Kapga De Cerisy
5.20 Royal Guardsman, The New One.
Good luck all!
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2 EW yankees done today
1st one 2 places 1 to run in 4 oclock
2nd one 2places and a winner and 1 to run at 4 oclock
get me out of here to win but a place be nice too and carlito brigante to be placed please !!
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Bet 1 ) £5 e/w on Soll ( get a free bet back on this one) 7-1 (didnt come off unlike the jockey who did)
Bet 2 ) Teaforthree/Monksland and 1st Lieutenant 2/ew treble 11/2 9/2 & 5-1 (1st 3rd and 2nd )
Bet 3) Get me out of here 2/ew 15/2 (2nd)
Bet 4) Alfie Spinner 9-1 Bobsworth 4-1 and get me out of here 15-2 trixie (Bobsworth and trixie both came in)
Bet 5) clonbannon lad £2 e/w 16-1 (still to run)
Bet 6) Abergavenny 14-1 £1 to win (pulled out)
Bet 7 Abergavenny & Bat masterson £1 e/w double (faild due to abergavenny crashing out)
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Wednesdays heroes!!
1.30 blenheim brook EW
2.05 sous les cieux
2.40 grand crus
3.20 finians rainbow
4.00 cape dutch, silverhand, saphir river (all EW)
4.40 argocat EW
5.15 champagne fever
Boom!!
ROI back into +
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playing with the bookies money on thursday
1.30 Sir Des Champs
2.05 thehillofuisneach, Bellflower boy (both EW)
2.40 noble prince
3.20 Oscar whisky
4.00 Fine Parchment, Gansey (both EW)
4.40 Exmoor ranger, Time for Spring (both EW)
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a good day again today took the forecast on bobs worth and first lieutienant so well up at this stage
1.30 sir des champs.. zaynar ew
2.05 sonofvic ...prince erik ew
2.40 riverside theatre...blazing tempo ew
3.20 big bucks.. thousand stars ew (good price without big bucks)
4.00 niceonefrankie ....fine parchment
4.40 sunnyhillboy and the sawyer ew
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Only 2 winners out of 14 so far (and one of those was Quevega so doesn"t really count), so I must be due tomorrow...
1.30 Peddlers Cross
2.05 Bellflower Boy, Thehillofuisneach & Reindeer Dippin
2.40 Alberta"s Run & Captain Chris
3.20 Big Bucks & Dynaste
4.00 Niceonefrankie, The Cockney Mackem & Fine Parchment
4.40 Brackloon High, Mostly Bob & The Hollinwell
GL all
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Haven"t had a tickle at Cheltenham yet but before the madness of GC Day on Friday decided to do a nice wee double for tomorrow
14:40 Albertas Run
15:20 Big Bucks
GL to everyone for day 3 ;)
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13 20 Solix
14 05 buena vista
14 40 medermit
15 20 oscar whisky
16 00 nice one frankie
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Haven"t had a tickle at Cheltenham yet but before the madness of GC Day on Friday decided to do a nice wee double for tomorrow
14:40 Albertas Run
15:20 Big Bucks
GL to everyone for day 3 ;)
pettifours worth a small e/w bet in 2nd race 33/1
midnight game in the kim muir
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1:30 - Sir Des Champs , Champion Court
2:05 - Reindeer Dippin , Barwell Bridge
2:40 - Medermit
3:20 - Smad Place EW
4:00 - The Cockney Mackem , Kilcrea Asla , Holmwood Legend
4:40 - Swing Bill
5:00 - Faasel , Adams Island
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It"s a day for APAT betting
1:30 - Sir Des Champs
2:40 - Noble Prince
4:00 - Crack Away Jack
APAT treble FTW ;D
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AHHHH systems, they never fail :)
just for curiosity i"ve done the classic Raceform Update VDW method to get a class form shortlist of possible winners....
13:30 -
For Non Stop - 3rd 8/1
Peddlers Cross - x
Sir Des Champs - 1st 3/1
Solix - x
14:05 -
Restless Harry - x
Sergent Guib"s - x
Kayf Aramis - x
Thehillofuisneach - x
14:40 -
Albertas Run - 2nd 10/1
Medermit - 3rd 8/1
Riverside Theatre - 1st 7/2
Rubi Light - x
Blazing Tempo- x
15:20 -
Big Buck"s - 1st 5/6
Oscar Whisky - x
Thousand Stars - x
Voler La Vedette - 2nd 20/1
16:00 -
Hector"s Choice - x
Notus De La Tour - x
Finger Onthe Pulse - x
Salut Flo - 1st 9/2
Niceonefrankie - x
16:40 -
Up The Beat - 4th 8/1
Midnight Appeal - x
Start Me Up - 5th 10/1
Brackloon High - x
Faasel - x
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Had an absolute mare yesterday. Undaunted, heres today"s ones to avoid:
1.30 - Solix - 9.4
2.05 - Thehillsofuisneach - 18.5
2.40 - Rubi Light - 10-1 with Paddy Power
4.00 - Charingworth - 30
4.40 - Gurtacrue - 20
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Haven"t had a tickle at Cheltenham yet but before the madness of GC Day on Friday decided to do a nice wee double for tomorrow
14:40 Albertas Run
15:20 Big Bucks
GL to everyone for day 3 ;)
Oooooooft ::)
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had £5 e/w on riverside theatre
and a trixie on Big Bucks/riverside theatre and Sir des champs
total profit £90
sets me up well for tommorrow
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Jeeze, my tipping sucks. A second winless day. For what its worth, here"s my effort for gold cup day and the prices i"ve taken:
1.30 - Balder Succes - 9.2
2.05 - Olofi - 13
2.40 - Brindisi Breeze - 11.5
3.20 - Kauto Star - 5
4.00 - Salsify - 7.2
4.40 - Oscar Nominee - 12.5
5.15 - Renard - 55
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1.30 baby mix
2.05 olofi
2.40 Boston bob ... Sivola de ew
3.20 long run ...synchronised ew
4.00 chapoturgeon... Just amazing ew
4.40 molotof ew
5.15 renard ew
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Cheltenham Gold Cup day on Friday to look forward to and the drunken mess that is a day out with my mates, so i"m looking for a bit of help to cover the majority of races. I always do a yankee from 4 horses through the day, this year of course will be no exception, but the first 4 Friday tips on this page will decide where my money goes for a change, and believe me this couldn"t possibly be any worse than my own previous attempts over the years so you"re all doing me a favour!
So basically I"m looking for 4 individuals to give me a tip each and that"s it :)
Cheers Rob, as if Id ignore any tip of yours ::)
OK so here goes for tomorrow, only race I"ll dodge on Yankee is Gold Cup coz the lads do all sorts of mad bets on the day to cover this (e.g. we all do a £1 reverse forecast and winnings go into the drinks kitty - incredibly we need to go back to Jodami/Rushing Wild for the last winner there lol). So here are the entrants in order they"re posted, to be modified till I get my 4.
1.30 - Balder Succes
2.05 olofi
2.40 boston Bob
Told you I would never ignore yours Rob ;D
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playing with the bookies money on thursday
1.30 Sir Des Champs
2.05 thehillofuisneach, Bellflower boy (both EW)
2.40 noble prince
3.20 Oscar whisky
4.00 Fine Parchment, Gansey (both EW)
4.40 Exmoor ranger (placed), Time for Spring (both EW)
This added a little bit more to the warchest
Still playing with bookies money and am going
1.30 baby mix
2.05 ted spread, ifyouletmefinish (both EW)
2.40 boston Bob (NAP) Tour Des champs EW (un NAP - missus made me pick it)
3.20 Kauto Star (betting with my heart here - one time!!)
4.00 Barber shop, Rowdy Rampage (both EW)
5.15 Ultimate, Idarah (both EW)
gl everyone
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Cmon who"s giving me my champagne corker in the 4.00?
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here goes again with the classic Raceform Update VDW method for finding the possible winner of a race.. :)
13:30 -
Balder Succes
Grumeti
Hisaabaat
His Excellency
Pearl Swan
Shadow Catcher
14:05 -
Alderwood
Clerk"s Choice
The Bull Hayes
Snap Tie
Dee Ee Williams
Moon Dice
14:40 -
Boston Bob
Brindisi Breeze
Mount Benbulben
Rocky Creek
Sea Of Thunder
15:20 -
Burton Port
Kauto Star
Long Run
Quel Esprit
Synchronised
16:00 -
Count Salazar
On The Fringe
Roulez Cool
Salsify
My Flora
16:40 -
I"msingingtheblues
Toner D"Oudairies
Art Professor
Wolf Moon
17:15 -
French Opera
Idarah
Tanks For That
Norther Bay
Free World
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1:30 - Hisaabaat , Shadow Catcher
2:05 - Ubi Ace , Ingleby Spirit
2:40 - Brindisi Breeze , Grand Vision
3:20 - Synchronised , Quel Esprit
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1:30 - Hisaabaat , Shadow Catcher
2:05 - Ubi Ace , Ingleby Spirit
2:40 - Brindisi Breeze , Grand Vision
3:20 - Synchronised , Quel Esprit
I"m assuming these are your "value" picks, or to you believe it"s not actually a two horse race ?
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Poker bet for the day
1:30 - Dodging Bullets
2:05 - Ubi Ace
3:20 - Long Run
APAT bet for the day
3:20 - Weird Al
4:00 - Barbers Shop (or go for Chapoturgeon ridden by Mr J Barber)
4:40 - Tornado Bob
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Right im on my knees, been battered for 3 days and had man flu.Time to fight back.
BalderSucces
Citizenship
Boston Bob
Synchronised
Salsify
Goodluck alltoday
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1:30 - Hisaabaat , Shadow Catcher
2:05 - Ubi Ace , Ingleby Spirit
2:40 - Brindisi Breeze , Grand Vision
3:20 - Synchronised , Quel Esprit
I"m assuming these are your "value" picks, or to you believe it"s not actually a two horse race ?
Quel Esprit is a non runner now....
Synchronised in the Lexus absolutely pulverised the field, Rubi Light hasn"t exactly boosted the form after his run in the RSA yesterday but as long as Synchronised"s jumping holds up [he does like to jink mid air] then there is no doubting imo that come the hill his stamina could swing it for him...
Burton Port has to be in the mix, he beat Long Run by a s/h in the RSA, injury hit after a fair run in the HGC at Newbury then after a lengthy absence on his comeback he only loses narrowly to Long Run!!! He could bounce today but if he doesn"t he is the only other viable contender to the front 2 in the betting to actually have a chance of winning today"s Gold Cup imho of course.. :)
Kauto has to be in the mix of course but at 12 years old its a big ask but Long Run hasn"t looked in the same form this year as he was when leading up to this last year plus with quicker conditions today his jumping might find him out today..
An intriguing open 4 way contest for the winners spot is my call Leigh, should be i hope a great race to watch, shame Weapon"s Amnesty isn"t back from injury yet because he"d definitely lower Long Run"s colours :)
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I thought there might be more to it. ;D
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Terrible week so far and need lots of winners just to get even
1.30 Baby Mix
2.05 Plan A, Local Hero & Sailor Warn
2.40 Boston Bob
3.20 Long Run
4.00 Bradley, Boxer Georg & Oscar Delta
4.40 Empire Levant, Attaglance & Rigidity
5.15 Kumbeshwar, Free World & Idarah
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Weird world when I only "realise" this is happening on Friday ...
Nibble at Kaya Star in the next.
Burton Port for the main event - gobble gobble
L
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Such a great run from Brindisi Breeze - which I failed to back - spew!