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Non Poker Forum => Sports Betting & Discussion => Topic started by: Chipaccrual on March 19, 2011, 14:16:57 PM

Title: Flat Season 2011 - Discussion
Post by: Chipaccrual on March 19, 2011, 14:16:57 PM
From 2nd April 2011 until 5th November 2011, we"re officially in Flat Racing Season.

Loads to look forward to, including

May
30th Apr-3st Newmarket- Stan James Guineas Festival
14th Newbury- Juddmonte Lockinge Stakes

June
3rd-4th Epsom- Derby Festival
14th-18th Ascot- Royal Ascot

July
2nd Sandown- Coral Eclipse Stakes
7th-9th Newmarket- July Festival
23rd Ascot- King George Day
26th-30th Goodwood- Glorious Goodwood

August
17-20 York- Ebor Festival

September
3rd Haydock- Betfred Sprint Cup
8th-10th Doncaster- St. Leger Festival
22nd-24th Newmarket- Cambridgeshire Meeting

October
7th-8th Newmarket- Champions Meeting
22nd Doncaster- Racing Post Trophy Meeting
Title: Re: Flat Season 2011 - Discussion
Post by: Chipaccrual on March 19, 2011, 14:22:26 PM
The Classics

2,000 Guineas Stakes
1m - 3yo Colts and Fillies
Newmarket - 30th April

1,000 Guineas Stakes
1m - 3yo Fillies
Newmarket - 1st May

The Oaks
1m4f - 3yo Fillies
Epsom - 3rd July 2011

The Derby
1m4f - 3yo Colts and Fillies
Epsom - 4th July 2011

The St Leger
1m6f - 3yo Colts and Fillies
Doncaster - 10th September
Title: Re: Flat Season 2011 - Discussion
Post by: noble1 on March 19, 2011, 14:30:01 PM
i"ll post when i get time, in the meantime you know i"ll mention Frankel  :)
Title: Re: Flat Season 2011 - Discussion
Post by: Chipaccrual on March 19, 2011, 14:36:26 PM
Yes, Frankel may get mentioned here a few times.

I"ve got a few antepost picks for the first four classics.  I won"t post up reasons at the moment.  These were selected over the new year, haven"t had much chance to look back and re-evaluate yet.

2000 Guineas - Dream Ahead
1000 Guineas - Hooray
The Oaks - Havant
The Derby - Frankel

Title: Re: Flat Season 2011 - Discussion
Post by: noble1 on March 19, 2011, 14:55:18 PM

Yes, Frankel may get mentioned here a few times.

I"ve got a few antepost picks for the first four classics.  I won"t post up reasons at the moment.  These were selected over the new year, haven"t had much chance to look back and re-evaluate yet.

2000 Guineas - Dream Ahead
1000 Guineas - Hooray
The Oaks - Havant
The Derby - Frankel




i"m getting distracted here lol :) and mis-clicked in pokers, luckily i hit a 1outer :)  
i"m chillin tomorrow so i"ll have some time to give some input... i hope you got a good price on dream ahead :)
Title: Re: Flat Season 2011 - Discussion
Post by: Chipaccrual on March 19, 2011, 15:19:08 PM
Problem number one this year.

Glorious Goodwood clashes with APAT Scotland (Who the hell organised that schedule ?)

It"s only the last day (Saturday), but I haven"t missed a Glorious Goodwood Saturday for nearly 10 years.  Started going into the public enclosure with friends and now I am a member there.

I love the Nassau Stakes and Stewards Cup. FML, FML, FML, FML.
Title: Re: Flat Season 2011 - Discussion
Post by: thacker on March 19, 2011, 15:25:52 PM
I have to say Goodwood is without question the best view in racing and only 2nd to the view at royal ascot on a thursday. ;)
Title: Re: Flat Season 2011 - Discussion
Post by: noble1 on March 20, 2011, 13:16:42 PM

Yes, Frankel may get mentioned here a few times.

I"ve got a few antepost picks for the first four classics.  I won"t post up reasons at the moment.  These were selected over the new year, haven"t had much chance to look back and re-evaluate yet.

2000 Guineas - Dream Ahead
1000 Guineas - Hooray
The Oaks - Havant
The Derby - Frankel



My thoughts on the 2000 Guineas are that potentially this could be a cracker this year :) Frankel beat Dream Ahead by 7 lengths in the Dewhurst and Dream Ahead beat Strong Suit by 9 lengths in the Middle Park [over 6f] so it will be hard to fancy those 2 to reverse form imho.
In the Dewhurst Frankel also had the Champagne Stakes winner Saamidd and 3rd placed Waiter"s Dream well stuffed, plus lets face it Godolphin"s record in the 2000 guineas is bloody awful.. Mr Tester the BHA"s two-year-old specialist had Frankel and Dream Ahead joint rated at the end of the season, WTF comes to mind :o... Mr Tester in his wisdom said because Frankel only beat maiden winners [Roderic O"Connor and Glor Na Mara] that it took the gloss off his Dewhurst win? Well he must of missed Roderic O"Connor winning the Criterium International Group 1 over a mile at Saint-cloud in a very good time on heavy ground [french heavy]..  Rajsaman later on in the Prix Perth ran only 0.30 secs quicker [and he was a 3 year old]... He is rated 115 over a mile so imho after going through the races this only enhances what Frankel did...
The potential fly in the ointment could be Patchfork [especially if you take into account his win over Glor Na Mara in the Vincent O"Brien National].. Wootton Bassett"s win over Tin Horse at Longchamp puts him ahead of Dream Ahead imo, he has won on good to firm, good and very soft ground in good company, that points to a touch of class...
Pathfork is unbeaten after 3 races, his win over Casamento at the Curragh got boosted when Casamento went onto win the Racing Post Trophy... So for me Frankel is the likely winner but Patchfork and Wootton Bassett represent value at double figure odds, so i have had some each way savers on those two :)

just to add -
Casamento maybe of interest for the Derby, but i want to see him run again before i make my mind up :)
Title: Re: Flat Season 2011 - Discussion
Post by: nosey-p on March 20, 2011, 13:29:04 PM

Problem number one this year.

Glorious Goodwood clashes with APAT Scotland (Who the hell organised that schedule ?)

It"s only the last day (Saturday), but I haven"t missed a Glorious Goodwood Saturday for nearly 10 years.  Started going into the public enclosure with friends and now I am a member there.

I love the Nassau Stakes and Stewards Cup. FML, FML, FML, FML.


Put a sicky in, no one will notice  ::)
Title: Re: Flat Season 2011 - Discussion
Post by: jbworldwide on March 20, 2011, 14:27:44 PM

Problem number one this year.

Glorious Goodwood clashes with APAT Scotland (Who the hell organised that schedule ?)

It"s only the last day (Saturday), but I haven"t missed a Glorious Goodwood Saturday for nearly 10 years.  Started going into the public enclosure with friends and now I am a member there.

I love the Nassau Stakes and Stewards Cup. FML, FML, FML, FML.


You can just send a talented assistant instead, like Estonia last year :0)
Title: Re: Flat Season 2011 - Discussion
Post by: mousebob on March 20, 2011, 22:44:58 PM
Keep it to yourselves but I"ve been told to back.....

Charlton house for the Derby.

Fill your boots !!
Title: Re: Flat Season 2011 - Discussion
Post by: noble1 on March 21, 2011, 02:35:02 AM

Keep it to yourselves but I"ve been told to back.....

Charlton house for the Derby.

Fill your boots !!


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/racing/article-1346256/Queens-horse-Carlton-House-attracts-support-BHA-handicapper-Matthew-Tester.html
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=racing/10/10/24/RACING_House.html

i would want to him run yet against some decent company, Mr Stoute will run him in one of the derby trials... till then imo just another media hype talk horse...
Title: Re: Flat Season 2011 - Discussion
Post by: mousebob on March 21, 2011, 16:45:46 PM
Just thought I"d pass on a little "inside info".
I don"t do "media hype".
14/1 seems a fair price & worth an investment.
Will hedge later at 2/1. ;D

Don"t have time/inclination to study form any more (brain dead).
Just bet on paddock inspection. This seems to give me an edge.
Emmaslegend at Wincanton (backed at 30).
Voramar Two at Newton laid for place (he just didn"t want to be there)!!
Plenty more like that.
Best price winner so far 210. Probably won"t ever be able to top that.
I just never have enough on!!
Title: Re: Flat Season 2011 - Discussion
Post by: thacker on March 21, 2011, 16:48:15 PM
inside info lol. Someone always knows something  ;D
Title: Re: Flat Season 2011 - Discussion
Post by: noble1 on March 28, 2011, 21:38:41 PM
http://horses.sportinglife.com/Video/Racing/0,27770,424297_3,00.html

The racing post trophy form got a boost in Meydan when Master Of Hounds came 2nd to Khawlah...

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=527359&r_date=2011-03-26&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=511895&r_date=2010-10-23&popup=yes

http://www.attheraces.com/VideoConsole/?va=DON_2010_10_23_03_1455
Title: Re: Flat Season 2011 - Discussion
Post by: bigredders on March 29, 2011, 00:35:10 AM
You need to be brave to back ante-post but i agree with Leigh on Dream Ahead for the Guineas...the only problem is the horse NEEDS some sort of soft description in its going, i honestly don"t think it will run if not which may mean it goes to the French equivelent instead. The last race where Frankel beat him he was over the top, it was absolutely not its running.

Not really looked into anything else...also heard of a few squeaks for Charlton House in the Derby!
Title: Re: Flat Season 2011 - Discussion
Post by: noble1 on April 10, 2011, 11:03:45 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7wQhuVFS1uk

some discussion for the flat coming up....

Title: Re: Flat Season 2011 - Discussion
Post by: noble1 on April 11, 2011, 16:41:30 PM
I have just had a nibble at Recital for the Derby, his run in the Ballysax yesterday reminded me of Sinndar.. Green and keen at the start, Mr Moore gave Recital a schooling type of ride and wasn"t over zealous imo, to my eye he ran ok for his seasonal debut, entered in the Dante he will improve no doubts in my mind.. Now he has drifted in the Derby betting to double figures i had to have a bit of that :)
Banimpire has to be noted for the Oaks, her action screams i need firm ground so yesterdays improvement was no surprise, but beating the colts at this time of season is no mean feat and the 3 figure odds i nibbled at on betfair prior to the Ballysax race look good value now :), Havant and Misty For Me have a serious challenger imo...

http://www.attheraces.com/VideoConsole/?va=LEO_2011_04_10_04_1545
Title: Re: Flat Season 2011 - Discussion
Post by: noble1 on May 19, 2011, 19:53:23 PM
My mind is made up now for the Derby and the Oaks, i"m already on Recital for the Derby and Dancing Rain has been backed for the Oaks..
Good luck with Carlton House with those that backed it, myself i cant see what all the fuss is about.. The Dante turned out to be pretty weak imo, 3secs slower than the Middleton plus the close proximity of a handicapper in 3rd does not merit favourite status at 2/1 and shorter with some other firms imho... If Mr Stoute manages to win the Derby with CH then it will be a truly great training performance... 9 of the last 53 Dante winners have gone onto to win the Derby so the bookies going as short as they have is just bizarre, an average Dante winner over the years would be around 4 or 5 to 1 for the Derby, is Carlton House that far above average?
Recital won the Derrinstown trial, RPR gave him a rating of 118 which is pretty much on par with my opinion, but having gone back through the Derrinstown, RPR has only given ratings of 115+ to 4 O"Brien horses to then go on to the Derby.. There record having gone onto the Derby is - 2x firsts [High Chaparral and Galileo],  1x second [Fame and Glory behind Sea The Stars] 1x third [Dylan Thomas@25/1 to Sir Percy]... All these 5 went onto to be proved as proper group1 performers so that aids a bit of confidence in what i think of Recital plus the fact Aidan O"B used dual pacemakers for Recital and not for Seville is a clue imo as to which horse he favours.. Yeats got 115+ by RPR after winning the Derrinstown but injury prevented him running again that year, again he went on to be a decent sort :)
Recital is 8/1 and drifting with some, pretty much the market going on the info from the coolmore website saying there Derby runners are not decided, this doesn"t worry me as A-o"B has ran every fit Derrinstown winner and most of his placed ones in the Derby, the market is knee jerking imho...
Nathanial and Native Khan of the others are live outsiders imho, Nathanial especially is far to big of a price imo...

The Oaks is a head scratcher, a case can be made for a few of these, out of all the trials upto now Dancing Rain catches my eye, nothing more than a gut feel so at 25/1 she is worth a speculative punt....I personally find Fillies are a rum bunch to assess at the best of times so i"m taking a different approach for this years Oaks from how i"ve done it in previous years... :)

Good luck all with whatever takes your fancy this year....
Title: Re: Flat Season 2011 - Discussion
Post by: noble1 on May 22, 2011, 15:39:27 PM
Just backing the two today who both run in the Irish 1000 Guineas, Banimpire will have a great shout if they go to quick so each way for me, any other pace then Emiyna is the one to beat.. Both have progressed from 2 to 3, both love the quicker ground, Banimpire has beat the colts in the Ballysax already, Emiyna won the Athasi Stakes with a eye catching turn of foot gaining 4 lengths on the field within the last 1/2 furlong, Laughing Lashes went with her but Emiyna had her well held imho and the way Oxx"s filly traveled throughout the race oozed class...

1000 GUINEAS IRISH - Emiyna and Banimpire
Title: Re: Flat Season 2011 - Discussion
Post by: noble1 on June 03, 2011, 16:28:57 PM
ty ty Dancing Rain, Recital for the Derby :)
Title: Re: Flat Season 2011 - Discussion
Post by: ThinkerJE on June 03, 2011, 20:28:41 PM

My mind is made up now for the Derby and the Oaks, i"m already on Recital for the Derby and Dancing Rain has been backed for the Oaks..

The Oaks is a head scratcher, a case can be made for a few of these, out of all the trials upto now Dancing Rain catches my eye, nothing more than a gut feel so at 25/1 she is worth a speculative punt....


Great pick noble and a great tactical ride from murtagh
Title: Re: Flat Season 2011 - Discussion
Post by: Swinebag on June 04, 2011, 00:20:11 AM
top work noble

was as great a ride as frankies was poor
Title: Re: Flat Season 2011 - Discussion
Post by: noble1 on June 04, 2011, 03:57:25 AM


My mind is made up now for the Derby and the Oaks, i"m already on Recital for the Derby and Dancing Rain has been backed for the Oaks..

The Oaks is a head scratcher, a case can be made for a few of these, out of all the trials upto now Dancing Rain catches my eye, nothing more than a gut feel so at 25/1 she is worth a speculative punt....


Great pick noble and a great tactical ride from murtagh


top work noble

was as great a ride as frankies was poor


ty both , hope u had some sheckles on...  did i mention Recital ?  ;D
Title: Re: Flat Season 2011 - Discussion
Post by: duke3016 on June 04, 2011, 11:11:27 AM
Fallon"s ride on his preferred mount, Recital, now goes to Pat Smullen

Does the court decision affect your choice ? http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/horse_racing/13634500.stm (http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/horse_racing/13634500.stm)
Title: Re: Flat Season 2011 - Discussion
Post by: ThinkerJE on June 04, 2011, 12:04:02 PM

ty both , hope u had some sheckles on...  did i mention Recital ?  ;D


I do like Recital as the trends for the Derrinstown are very strong - however I think the Derby is wide open so 5/1 is too short for me.  I like Vadamar & Masked Marvel at bigger prices.

Pat Smullen in for Fallon not a negative for me - Smullen is top class
Title: Re: Flat Season 2011 - Discussion
Post by: ThinkerJE on June 04, 2011, 16:29:40 PM
Pour Moi wins the Derby by a head - sick celebrations from the jockey before the line and he would have been in a world of trouble if he had got beat
Title: Re: Flat Season 2011 - Discussion
Post by: ThinkerJE on June 04, 2011, 16:31:06 PM
Roll on Royal Ascot - can"t wait
Title: Re: Flat Season 2011 - Discussion
Post by: noble1 on June 06, 2011, 00:36:54 AM

Fallon"s ride on his preferred mount, Recital, now goes to Pat Smullen

Does the court decision affect your choice ? http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/horse_racing/13634500.stm (http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/horse_racing/13634500.stm)


yes to above duke :)  layed off a bit to secure a profit either way.. i was there on the day. good day out just lacked winners lol , a each way saver on la fortunata was the only highlight  :"(


Roll on Royal Ascot - can"t wait


snap  :)


Title: Re: Flat Season 2011 - Discussion
Post by: ThinkerJE on June 10, 2011, 18:42:49 PM
For all the trends geeks like me; Paul Jones (the original writer of the amazing weatherbys betting guides) has covered all 30 races for Royal Ascot next week on the attheraces website (also includes lots of stats)

http://www.attheraces.com/ascot/raceindex.aspx?sub=stats+guide&hlid=393331 (http://www.attheraces.com/ascot/raceindex.aspx?sub=stats+guide&hlid=393331)