Amateur Poker Association & Tour
Poker Forum => Strategy => Topic started by: AAroddersAA on May 25, 2011, 09:19:44 AM
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I think this is most likely fine but thought I would post as the hand is annoying me.
Live Cash Game at Aspers in Swansea blinds are £1/£1 with £150 sit down. I was playing quite well (which is unusual) and was up about £50. My image at the table was very tight, although it is unlikely many people have noticed this in that game. I have around £200 (it was actually £197 I think) in front of me. I am sat in the cut off. I get dealt QQ. The BB here is a bit of a calling station who in three hours I have not seen raise once. He has lost two £100 stacks due to calling down bets with small hands. He then doubled up when somebody tried to bluff him off two pair. I don"t think he is that likely to be that aware of table image but must know I have not played many pot"s.
Any we are playing 8 handed and there are three limpers. so there is £5 in the pot so I raise it to £10. The BB calls which doesn"t really surprise me and there is one other caller. Flop comes down Queen high (Q-6-2 I think) but all spades. Checks back to me so I bet out £30 with my set. The big blind insta goes allin for the rest of my stack, the other player folds. So I have about £110 left in front of me and there is effectively about £200 in the pot. He looks pretty confident and happy with the situation as well.
Can anybody find a fold here. If he does have the flush I have outs and almost have the correct odds to call anyway, if he has the bare As (and people do sometimes play flush draws this way) then I am a pretty big favorite. Anything else I am massive against.
This is a really easy call right? Can I ever fold and how deep do I have to be before I start thinking about folding?
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absolute snap. As for how deep we have to be, usually if we have 400x stacks, he isnt going to be shoving his nutted hands over our c/b, and will raise a standard size instead. Need more info on post-flop tendancies, but in these spots, Im more than likely to peel a flop raise and try and fill up. Also a consideration that he can over-value bottom/middle set.
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I think I"d have to call KNOWING I"m almost certainly up against a made flush BUT I think his range is open enough to mitigate any lack in the pot odds.
As you say, some will play a naked Ace flush draw this way as would some middle sets.
Overall I"d say that after balancing ranges and pot odds...it"s a call.
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Then again, you"ve only got a minimal amount invested and if you don"t want to gamble...then don"t....I"d be happy with it either way.
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shoot if i had my car keys, they would go in as well, but thats the sort of player I am.
No probs snappin there,
as above they"re flush drawing half the time in low limits, and trying to pot buyout.
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I have around £200 (it was actually £197 I think) in front of me.
....................So I have about £110 left in front of me and there is effectively about £200 in the pot.
think that in this scenario where pot odds have a real bearing it"s important that the numbers are right. If you raise to £10 pre, then cbet £30, you must have £157 left in front, not £110.
With your £10, plus two callers, and 2 other £1s in the pot, the pot was £32 going to the flop. You c-bet £30 and he shoved enough to set you all in. So, effective pot is £32+£30+£30 = £92 + £157 = £249. You are being asked to call £157 to win £249 - so you have to win around 39% of the time to make the call ok.
Assuming worst case that you are behind to a made flush, you have 7 outs on turn and 10 on river, by my reckoning that"s around 38%..... therefore the call is borderline based on pot odds. However, if you believe he has Ace spade draws in his range, the odds swing in favour of a call. Thing is though, in your OP you label him is a calling station and the way you describe his previous actions, he doesn"t sound the sort of player who would jam with anything but a made strong hand.
In the heat of the moment, I probably snap call - however with the maths in mind, it"s probably -EV against this particular player. Against a good player who"s jamming range will include draws and air on this type of flop, the call is pretty mandatory.
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Cheers Steve, and you are right I did mis-calculate the pot odds in the OP (for some reason I had taken my stack as being £150 not around £200). Which I guess shows I did not think enough about it when I was actually playing the hand.
The player type is what is making me think I could have got away. He was in every other pot for three hours and had not raised a bet once (he had bet himself but had never made a raise pre or post flop). I don"t think I ever could fold here.
The player in question I had seen him call down a couple of times with top pair hands so I had to put him on better than that. Does this help with post flop tendancies? I think he also called a couple of small bets with TT on an A high board not that this is really relevant to this hand. The main thing was I had not seen his raise before.
I still don"t think I can ever find a fold here but I think maybe a good cash player might just manage it against this player often enough to be correct? Is this ROT?
btw he had Ks-9s and won the pot after I called.
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Thing is Steve, you"ve given every argument for folding - you"ve explained how his tendencies suggest he has the goods here... but you still call anyway. If you are able to narrow his range to only a made flush (ie no marginal hands, draws, or air), then the call is borderline at best.... it only really becomes +EV if his range contains hands other than the made flush.
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I was calculating the fact that you had only £40 invested and therefore had £157 behind, then read Steve"s post :P. From what you have said about this guy, I am pretty sure you called knowing you were behind, but just couldn"t lay down top set, and probably most of us couldn"t particularly as a lot of these low level cash games are crazy spewy!
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I wouldn"t contemplate folding any set and would also struggle to fold AQ here for what it is worth. I think folding top set here against any player is errr well tight in the extreme.
Try stoving his range and see how much equity you have if you really feel the need.
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I wouldn"t contemplate folding any set and would also struggle to fold AQ here for what it is worth. I think folding top set here against any player is errr well tight in the extreme.
Try stoving his range and see how much equity you have if you really feel the need.
Thing is Dean, through reads, the decision has already been made that the other guy"s range is very thin, probably consisting of only flushes. Against that narrow range, we have 38% equity, and pot odds of 39% - hence my point that calling is marginal.
but I agree with your sentiment, and no I would never fold here.
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He surely can have 66 or 22 which play exactly the same way. Even nits do weird things live and I have even seen aces played like this before, people do weird stuff on monotone flops even when they have appeared passive generally. Also people don"t always tend to jam when they have flopped the lot, although it appears this villain does
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Next time you get in a spot like this and want to fold, call me and I will buy your hand off you :)
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Next time you get in a spot like this and want to fold, call me and I will buy your hand off you :)
ill go halfers with ya then ill take 90persent of the winnings cos i have further to travel
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I was never folding this but I am actually starting to think this is a leak. I am still not good enough to fold but it might actually be a fold.
Player,Equity,Wins Hi,Ties Hi
QdQh, 60.3597%,60.1530%,0.4132%
"As*, 33, 66, AsQc, 3s5s+, 3s4s+, K[7+]:ss", 39.6403%,39.4337%,0.4132%
Take out 33/66 and leave AsQ*...
Player,Equity,Wins Hi,Ties Hi
QdQh, 36.5720%,36.5720%,0.0000%
"AsQc, 3s5s+, 3s4s+, K[7+]:ss", 63.4280%,63.4280%,0.0000%
Take out everything but a flush
Player,Equity,Wins Hi,Ties Hi
QdQh,34.2424%, 34.2424%,0.0000%
"3s5s+, 3s4s+, K[7+]:ss", 65.7576%,65.7576%,0.0000%
This is taken directly from the Blonde thread I did not work it out myself :-)
http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=53477.15
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Doubt he did it with a spade if he is the sort of player im imagining.
I think he has Two pair. But I call
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Doubt he did it with a spade if he is the sort of player im imagining.
I think he has Two pair. But I call
Highly doubt he ever has 2 pair on that board, even in live poker