Amateur Poker Association & Tour
Poker Forum => Strategy => Topic started by: TheSnapper on June 24, 2011, 17:20:13 PM
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I fold, hoping the fish wins! Calling makes post flop play difficult as hard to fold.
Maybe against a careful?/tight? player you could shove to try & force sb out.
Seems unlikely due to stack sizes.
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jam
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jam
Love to hear your expert opinion on what action to take and more importantly why?
Single word replies will do lots for your post count Steve, but c"mon indulge me a little.
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jam
Love to hear your expert opinion on what action to take and more importantly why?
Single word replies will do lots for your post count Steve, but c"mon indulge me a little.
You"ve labelled the SB as a fish, and his flat call in this spot with the BB still to act is awful.
If he has a big hand, he should be isolating to get a HU showdown..... or to get more of your chips in to create a side pot if you choose to call once he"s raised. So, I pretty much discount a big hand - knowing the way most weak fish play this spot, he probably has a raggy ace that he thinks is ahead of the button"s shove range.
For you I would hate folding - you have a semi-premium hand and are probably ahead of the SB.... folding to hope for a ladder jump would be lame.
The fish probably thinks you should call to make it a 2 v 1 showdown and to improve the chance of knocking the shortstack out.
I jam to take a headsup showdown with the shortstack in a pot that is juiced by the fish"s weak call - I have to assume he folds most hands when you jam. However, if he happens to make a ropey call with a raggy ace or overcards, you are racing to win the tourney.
Never folding. Hate flatting. Jam FTW.
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jam
Love to hear your expert opinion on what action to take and more importantly why?
Single word replies will do lots for your post count Steve, but c"mon indulge me a little.
You"ve labelled the SB as a fish, and his flat call in this spot with the BB still to act is awful.
If he has a big hand, he should be isolating to get a HU showdown..... or to get more of your chips in to create a side pot if you choose to call once he"s raised. So, I pretty much discount a big hand - knowing the way most weak fish play this spot, he probably has a raggy ace that he thinks is ahead of the button"s shove range.
For you I would hate folding - you have a semi-premium hand and are probably ahead of the SB.... folding to hope for a ladder jump would be lame.
The fish probably thinks you should call to make it a 2 v 1 showdown and to improve the chance of knocking the shortstack out.
I jam to take a headsup showdown with the shortstack in a pot that is juiced by the fish"s weak call - I have to assume he folds most hands when you jam. However, if he happens to make a ropey call with a raggy ace or overcards, you are racing to win the tourney.
Never folding. Hate flatting. Jam FTW.
Excellent reply Steve.
Though your assumptions about SB are usually spot on!
My read on SB was such that........
he would not understand that he should iso raise any hand and either flats or folds in this spot.
equally he 100% calls if we iso raise him.
Based on that do you still think Jamming is best?
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I fold, hoping the fish wins! Calling makes post flop play difficult as hard to fold.
Maybe against a careful?/tight? player you could shove to try & force sb out.
Seems unlikely due to stack sizes.
with a guy all in, postflop should play out somewhat honestly.
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jam
Love to hear your expert opinion on what action to take and more importantly why?
Single word replies will do lots for your post count Steve, but c"mon indulge me a little.
You"ve labelled the SB as a fish, and his flat call in this spot with the BB still to act is awful.
If he has a big hand, he should be isolating to get a HU showdown..... or to get more of your chips in to create a side pot if you choose to call once he"s raised. So, I pretty much discount a big hand - knowing the way most weak fish play this spot, he probably has a raggy ace that he thinks is ahead of the button"s shove range.
For you I would hate folding - you have a semi-premium hand and are probably ahead of the SB.... folding to hope for a ladder jump would be lame.
The fish probably thinks you should call to make it a 2 v 1 showdown and to improve the chance of knocking the shortstack out.
I jam to take a headsup showdown with the shortstack in a pot that is juiced by the fish"s weak call - I have to assume he folds most hands when you jam. However, if he happens to make a ropey call with a raggy ace or overcards, you are racing to win the tourney.
Never folding. Hate flatting. Jam FTW.
Excellent reply Steve.
Though your assumptions about SB are usually spot on!
My read on SB was such that........
he would not understand that he should iso raise any hand and either flats or folds in this spot.
equally he 100% calls if we iso raise him.
Based on that do you still think Jamming is best?
yes. I still say folding a medium pair in this spot is lame and overly nitty, and flatting is horrible. I"m always jamming here against this oppo - if SB calls, then we only need to beat the SB to show profit in the hand. (I"ve already discounted overpair hands from the SB range, so we"re ahead and racing at worst).
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no point repeating msr redfern, all in immeiately. brendan
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Think this is far from a snap shove, given that the caller of the first shove is most likely calling a second shove from Brendan.
However, this is still a great spot 3 handed to scoop up first and if it goes belly up you are still in the hunt.
There is a good chance that you could be facing 4 overcards in a 3 way but it is also the best part of a coinflip to double your payout. you only need to beat one of these hands to do that.
I would normally consider flatting to be option Z here but given the nature of the SB there could be some argument for this. Just not sure what yet.
Yes, my ramblings whilst composing this post have convinced me that I shove here, but I would not consider it a straightforward one. Deal me 88 and it becomes a lot easier.
PS is there a chip EV calculation for this? Noble?
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Think this is far from a snap shove, given that the caller of the first shove is most likely calling a second shove from Brendan.
However, this is still a great spot 3 handed to scoop up first and if it goes belly up you are still in the hunt.
There is a good chance that you could be facing 4 overcards in a 3 way but it is also the best part of a coinflip to double your payout. you only need to beat one of these hands to do that.
I would normally consider flatting to be option Z here but given the nature of the SB there could be some argument for this. Just not sure what yet.
Yes, my ramblings whilst composing this post have convinced me that I shove here, but I would not consider it a straightforward one. Deal me 88 and it becomes a lot easier.
PS is there a chip EV calculation for this? Noble?
There is an EV calc, heading out now but will try later.
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PS is there a chip EV calculation for this? Noble?
ty for that Rob lol :) ... Alas Aunt Sally has hidden my mathematically thing me do head and i have my percy thrower head on today [me has been out gardening the past few days, digging, cutting and chopping trees with a tad bit of burning as well, i luvvv burning things lol lol]
$ev OR icm WHATEVER :P i"ll leave to snapper and the thread, although IMHO u were on the right lines Rob with your line of thought that at best your 35% to win if u shove and get called.. All depends i suspect as to how much u fancy your chances in the scenarios if u call and lose and either the decent player triples up or the maniac wins etc etc OR if u fold whether or not the maniac ko"s shortie and u get to plays HU with the perceived weaker player...
meh it will interesting to see how the thread goes, anyhoooss back to garden, me has some burning to do :)
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Ok my rudimentary attempt at the sums.
We have to combine 2x EV equations because of the side pot.
The range for button jam is huge but I've played around with it and even the very conservative range of..
22+,A2s+,K7s+,Q7s+,J8s+,T8s+,98s,A2o+,K9o+,Q9o+,J9o+,T9o
which is top ~35% of hands, combined with an equally conservative range for SB of..
22+,A2s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,A6o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo
Which is top ~25%
Against those ranges 77 has ~33% equity in the main pot and ~53% in the side pot versus the SB
Stacks are..
Btn: 55000
SB: 168000
BB: 260000
Main pot = .33 (55000+55000) + .67 (-55000) = -550
Side pot = .53 (168000-55000) + .47 (-111300) = 6780
EV = 6230
So clearly Jamming is +EV without allowing for SB to fold <0%
There is most likely some ICM consideration at play in this spot too and it would be great to see some attempt at that, sadly it is a step beyond my limited capabilities :-[
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ok, how it played out.
Thought process.
The guy on the button was a decent player and it was definately in our best interest that he exited this hand so folding is not an option?
The SB was a complete maniac and could have absolutely any hand here, but! he is never folding to an iso raise.
77 is definately ahead of his range.
The SB is so bad that we expect to crush him HU playing a small ball game giving him more opportunities to err.
All that leads to the point Noble makes.
if u call and u had 33% equity then basically u win 33 times £500..
of the other 67 times break it down into each scenario - u heads up with player1 or 2, u as the short stack 3ways.. what % of times do u end up getting 1st 2nd or 3rd ???
if u fold [lets say player1 and player2 are 50/50]
50 times u lock up 2nd place money and end up heads up with the weak player, what % of times will u end up beating the weak player heads up [for instance u think u have a skill advantage and will beat him 70% of the time]
50 times the short stack doubles up - with your chip advantage 3way, what % would u guesstimate u still winning, getting 2nd or coming 3rd ???
There are just too many variables in there for my "hard drive" but would love to see an attempt at it Noble. Specifically, of the times we dont win the pot, how do you figure out the % of times we finish 2nd & 3rd in the pot?
Anyhow, I flatted, which I now suspect points to a risk aversion leak? but hey its better than folding right?
Flop is 9d tc js SB leads and I fold, SB shows ah jd and btn thankfully misses his oesd with qd 5s and we are heads up with a 205k stack versus SB"s 278k
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FWIW I would have flatted for the same reasons you did. Play it out honestly and don"t care if me or SB wins the hand, based on your reads.
This should be all the evidence you need, to know you played it wrong.
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FWIW I would have flatted for the same reasons you did. Play it out honestly and don"t care if me or SB wins the hand, based on your reads.
This should be all the evidence you need, to know you played it wrong.
Made me chuckle Andy ;D
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prize money
500 - 59%
250 - 29%
120 - 14%
stacks
55k - P1
168k - P2
260k
assume as sb called he will call our shove 100% of the time...
100 times - shove or fold
shove
u think the sb"s range is 25%, 77 versus that is basically 50/50.. the short stacks range u reckon is 35%... 3way basically lets say best case 33% for us to win..
so break it down and run it in your mind 100 times...
33 times we would win outright..
34 times we end up with approx 318k versus the P1 with approx 165k..
33 times we lose and end up with 92k hu versus P2 with approx 391k OR 3way 92k versus approx P1 with 165k and P2 with 226k...
33x500 = 16500
20x500 = 10000
14x250 = 3500 [the 20 and 14 assume u win hu 60% of the time versus P1]
7x500 = 3500
7x250 = 1750
19x120 = 2280 [the last 33 times i maybe optimistically assume u win approx 20% Bren, likewise finish 2nd and 3rd approx 60% of the time]
thats 37530 in total over 100 times
fold
if we fold 100 times - 50 times we will end up HU against P2 with approx 223k [as he is considered by u as a poor player i will assume u win HU 70% of the time]
50 times we end up 3ways against P1 with approx 110k and P2 with approx 113k and ourselves with approx 260k, in this situation i assume u win 50%, get 2nd 30% of the time and 3rd 20% of the time...
35x500 = 17500
15x250 = 3750
25x500 = 12500
15x250 = 3750
10x120 = 1200
thats 38700 in total over 100 times
the win % i get from dividing your chips by the total chips in play to get a rough guide as to how often u will win...
so there is very little in folding or shoving, a fold slightly ahead, but based on opinion etc etc different camps of thought will favour one or the other.. me i think 77 is pretty much bottom of our range and given best case scenario that the two villains are as wide as we think they will go, i think i"d fold it and be pretty happy going heads up with the maniac with a skill advantage [thats if u think u have one].. 3way with the chip advantage i would be disappointed not to win 50% of the time...
all the above is pretty much just working by the effective stacks ignoring largely the blinds, the figs won"t be far off though...
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top work
<3 noble
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with a guy all in, postflop should play out somewhat honestly.
Can you explain this statement to me please. Do you mean if you "flat" it should then be checked down to become HU ?
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4000/8000
eff. stacks 33.3 times 33.3 times 33.3 times
P1 - 55k 177k 0 0
P2 - 168k 113k 295k 113k
P3 - 260k 205k 205k 382k
if checked down Bren u will have the above scenarios, i"d guesstimate calling would mean u winning 1st place approx 54 times.. Gets tricky factoring in when u hit a set and P2 hits top pair or better then he will stack off or he hits top pair u miss your set, he bets u fold but he loses a certain % to P1 still... So the 54 times is about right imho...
of the 3 options folding seems to edge it overall with little difference between calling and shoving but as trying to factor in various flop textures and P2"s reactions if we call then personally i"d favour - folding > shoving > calling
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