Amateur Poker Association & Tour
Poker Forum => Strategy => Topic started by: AMRN on July 06, 2011, 09:57:32 AM
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Pacific Poker - $0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3 (http://www.pokertracker.com)
ValueRiddler (BTN): $141.68
GodBlessMyWR (SB): $50.09
JicaTa321 (BB): $50.00
AtilaxCuvier (UTG): $96.75
AMRN888 (MP): $72.90
amelia333 (CO): $49.75
GodBlessMyWR posts SB $0.25, JicaTa321 posts BB $0.50
Pre Flop: ($0.75) AMRN888 has qh qs
AtilaxCuvier raises to $2.00
AMRN888 calls $2.00
fold
ValueRiddler raises to $9.56
fold
fold
fold
AMRN888 raises to $28.00
ValueRiddler raises to $141.68
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Table has been generally aggro with lots of 3-betting, squeezing, etc. ValueRiddler has rarely got out of line though, and his stack has been built with a couple of big showdowns where he has had the goods.
My image at the table is TAG. I"ve played 150 hands with stats of 12/7/4, and a 3-bet stat of 3%.
I"ve flat called behind the UTG raiser (35/22/1) in the almost certain knowledge that someone will squeeze.
ValueRiddler (18/18/6) makes the squeeze and UTG raiser folds.
I 4-bet expecting that I have the best hand here most of the time.
Should I be insta-calling his 5-bet shove, given all of the above, or can I fold given that I still have 90 BB behind.
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Im not going to be folding here when our hand is so under-repped with our flat pre, but Im not entirely happy about it. Once we 4b this size I especially never fold. fwiw - I 4b a lot smaller w/ my entire range.
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Are you ever putting 40% of your stack in and folding, in a cash game? I don"t think so, having said that from what you say of the villain it sounds like you could well be behind, or at best flipping.
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We still have 40% vs QQ+, AK and we are getting a good price.
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youve only got $72 and i thought you where loaded ;D ........shove not folding
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Just as a side Steve - what is your reasoning for the 4b size?
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Just as a side Steve - what is your reasoning for the 4b size?
On reflection, I would prefer a 4b to $21. My excuse is that I was playing six tables, and using the auto buttons too much... I probably just clicked Pot, then wound it back a little.
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hmmm ur pot committed, both call or fold are ok imho...
call - because your big 4bet sizing, also villain as u say has shown down 2 big hands and may of made a move as he wont of expected u to flat QQ..
fold - in terms of long term profit calling this type of players 5bet shove at these stakes with QQ wont exactly be your bread and butter profits, break even at best if your lucky :)..
4bet smaller so u can build some bluffing frequency into different player types, then adjust according how u want to exploit them.. 2.1 to 2.5x there 3bet would be ok, in your situation 4betting anything around $20 to $23 would be fine..
4betting smaller for value will at least allow in theory the chance of your chosen victim to call or re-raise with worse hands than yours..
dont like your stats steve tbh, 12/7/4 is wee bit nitty for 6max, do u normally play this tight in 6max cash ??
if villain is half decent and has noticed how rarely u raise, then his 5bet shove maybe just AA, if u called and lost then heyho, afterwards now u know and u can adjust accordingly..
is the 3rd figure in the stats the 3bet % or the AF ?
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dont like your stats steve tbh, 12/7/4 is wee bit nitty for 6max, do u normally play this tight in 6max cash ??
er... categorically no. This was just the way that particular table had played out for me. My overall 50NL 6max for last 5000 hands is 18/12/2. Even that"s probably a little tight though?
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dont like your stats steve tbh, 12/7/4 is wee bit nitty for 6max, do u normally play this tight in 6max cash ??
er... categorically no. This was just the way that particular table had played out for me. My overall 50NL 6max for last 5000 hands is 18/12/2. Even that"s probably a little tight though?
Flat less and 3b more imo.
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hmmm ur pot committed, both call or fold are ok imho...
I don"t agree that we"re pot committed :o
This deep with our image versus a solid reg I dont think we"re ever priced in and on the rare occasion that we are, its only barely correct to call.
We still have 40% vs QQ+, AK and we are getting a good price.
We never have 40%, because we hold QQ there are only two further combo"s of QQ possible for villain. Allowing a discount that he may 50% time misinterpret your weak flat and overplay AK, his range could be, best case for us and I really think its generous in this dynamic ....
KK+,QcQd,AhKh,AsKs,AcKd,AcKh,AcKs,AdKh,AdKs,AhKs
QQ has ~33%
fold - in terms of long term profit calling this type of players 5bet shove at these stakes with QQ wont exactly be your bread and butter profits, break even at best if your lucky :)..
Totally agree with this, especially so 140 BB"s deep and! folding has the added benefit of avoiding super high variance spots that can often be detrimental to our ability to maintain a winning level of play.
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I have no problem w/ 3b/folding in this spot, but what do u think our range looks like when we flat/4b? I think our pf actions can affect villains 5b range.
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We never have 40%, because we hold QQ there are only two further combo"s of QQ possible for villain. Allowing a discount that he may 50% time misinterpret your weak flat and overplay AK, his range could be, best case for us and I really think its generous in this dynamic ....
KK+,QcQd,AhKh,AsKs,AcKd,AcKh,AcKs,AdKh,AdKs,AhKs
QQ has ~33%
We are still getting the right price vs this range;
QhQs
34.19%
KK-AA,QcQd,AhKh,AsKs,AcKd,AcKh,AcKs,AdKh,AdKs,AhKs
65.81%
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We never have 40%, because we hold QQ there are only two further combo"s of QQ possible for villain. Allowing a discount that he may 50% time misinterpret your weak flat and overplay AK, his range could be, best case for us and I really think its generous in this dynamic ....
KK+,QcQd,AhKh,AsKs,AcKd,AcKh,AcKs,AdKh,AdKs,AhKs
QQ has ~33%
We are still getting the right price vs this range;
QhQs
34.19%
KK-AA,QcQd,AhKh,AsKs,AcKd,AcKh,AcKs,AdKh,AdKs,AhKs
65.81%
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I have to disagree that it is generous. People at these levels overplay AK in general, and he is more likely to squeeze IP w/ it after a pfr and a flat. He can actually squeeze a little wider in this spot as AMRN"s flat ensure that utg needs a genuine hand to continue. I actually narrowed the original range.
Id say no-one has a large enough sample of these spots to adequately make an assessment from their database, but I think folding Q"s here would be a mistake given our pf actions.
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I have to disagree that it is generous. People at these levels overplay AK in general, and he is more likely to squeeze IP w/ it after a pfr and a flat. He can actually squeeze a little wider in this spot as AMRN"s flat ensure that utg needs a genuine hand to continue. I actually narrowed the original range.
Id say no-one has a large enough sample of these spots to adequately make an assessment from their database, but I think folding Q"s here would be a mistake given our pf actions.
His range for the IP squeeze is likely very wide for sure but that is largely irrelevent now, since we 4 bet and he 5 bet jams 140 BB"s effective.
Our "just enough equity" is largely based on the likelihood of AK in his range, the fact that we are 140 BB"s deep and up against a solid reg who has position would be enough evidence for me to discount / not include AK in his 5 bet range.
For me it boils down to this.......
This is a breakeven spot, at best!!!! and 50% of the time it will adversely effect our standard of play which will cost us $$$$$
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did u have a peek at villains Fold to 4-bet percentage steve before acting?
a wee peek at villains 3-bet percentage depending on position would divulge a bit of info for u since u were 6tabling..
having these at your disposal will/met at least allow u to quantify villains 3betting range.
also i met if playing a few tables against players i haven"t come up against a lot check the Won $ when saw flop percentage, sometimes u can get a reflection of a players skill by there W multiplied by there VPIP. I use the W stat to get a vague idea how good someone is postflop, if decent ish then in theory :) that translates to there pre-flop game as well...
i prefer proper reads though, but one must embrace technology and make use of it sometimes i guess :(
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you should 22 they r the nuts not AQ
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EV = [(bet to call)x(1 - equity in the pot)]+[(equity in pot)x(pot size)]
4bet for profit - 26/40.31 = 64.50% [if villain folds less than this then its obvious -EV]
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EV = [(bet to call)x(1 - equity in the pot)]+[(equity in pot)x(pot size)]
4bet for profit - 26/40.31 = 64.50% [if villain folds less than this then its obvious -EV]
Not sure where you"re coming from here Noble, if we had rags and were contemplating 4 bet bluffing, I see the relevence but is Steve 4 betting for value in this spot? which begs the question......
What hands in villains range do we get value from when we 4 bet QQ ?
Say villain squeezes here with all of his button open raise range, its a good spot for him to do this tbh so he might raise with.....
22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J7s+,T7s+,96s+,86s+,76s,65s,A8o+,K9o+,Q9o+,J9o+,T9o,
if he folds......
AJs-A2s,K2s+,Q2s+,J7s+,T7s+,96s+,86s+,76s,65s,AJo-A8o,K9o+,Q9o+,J9o+,T9o,
and 5 bets.....
KK+,AhKh,AsKs,AcKd,AcKh,AcKs,AdKh,AdKs,AhKs
it leaves a potential value flatting range of......
JJ-22,QcQd,AcKc,AdKd,AQs,AdKc,AhKc,AhKd,AsKc,AsKd,AsKh,AQo,
Getting >5/1 implied odds set minining JJ-22 would be a huge mistake, that leaves...
QcQd,AcKc,AdKd,AQs,AdKc,AhKc,AhKd,AsKc,AsKd,AsKh,AQo, and AQo is unlikely to flat tbh.
That is only 31 of his original 500+ combos, AQo accounts for 16 combos so maybe as low as 15.
Are my ranges for villain continuing too tight?
What does 4 betting achieve?
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His range widens when you consider Steve"s pre-flop actions. He can 5b with the lower-middle section of his 3b range if he thinks he has fold equity. Steves 4b sizing certainly lowers perceived f/e which is not what we want, but his pf actions will certainly widen it in somewhat.
I"m certainly not in love with just getting it in here, but I think the fact that we are getting the right price against a tight range that may actually be wider than we need means that we have to imo.
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His range widens when you consider Steve"s pre-flop actions. He can 5b with the lower-middle section of his 3b range if he thinks he has fold equity. Steves 4b sizing certainly lowers perceived f/e which is not what we want, but his pf actions will certainly widen it in somewhat.
I"m certainly not in love with just getting it in here, but I think the fact that we are getting the right price against a tight range that may actually be wider than we need means that we have to imo.
5 bet bluff @ 50nl, I"m not convinced Marty think its a level of thinking beyond what"s useful at these stakes, we don"t have a 3b"ing war dynamic to hint at that being possible here either.
Fully agree that villains 3 bet range is super wide but my experience is that an 18/18/6 140 bb"s deep will never pass this particular commitment threshold lite, which will quickly overrule any weakness perceived from Steves flat call. Sure! anything is possible as a once of spew, just unlikely imo.
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rather than look at the final result of your actions, work out how u got to this situation..
eg - u flatted the utg raise with a plan, 4 players behind, was u prepared to 4bet any of the villains or did the 3bet come from the one player that u didn"t want to particularly get jiggy with?
if so then why consider 4bet fold? if u thought beforehand that u didn"t fancy playing him oop but u could still profit from 4betting him but that his 5bet range would be super narrow then why not 4bet less?
did u consider moving tables? did u assess your table position/edge correctly.. think back, did ego take over, did u just fall into the trap of auto-piloting?
why not 3bet pre and keep it simple?
just some thoughts that come to mind that imho u should focus on rather than just should i call villains 5bet shove..
so think back i think u"ll learn more if u analyse your mind set at the time...
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I think villains range is widened by Heros preflop line looking FOS with a smaller pocket pair, especially given the rather large 4bet sizing. I really don"t like 4bet folding queens in this spot
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Thanks for all the comments - some food for thought.
So - it played out thus...
I flat called with every intention of 4-betting. The way the table was playing, a raise and a call was going to be 3-bet by someone (anyone) probably 100% of the time. It didn"t matter where the 3-bet came from, I was planning to 4-bet. My 4-bet was over-sized, and as I said earlier, this was probably due to the laziness of using the auto-sizing buttons (think I probably clicked Pot, then cranked it back a notch).
When the guy 5-bet shoved, I kinda knew I was beat, but didn"t have it in me to fold having come this far. I used all the clock before making a pretty sour call - he had AA.
I think that having played it slow initially, I had hidden the value of my hand somewhat, and the reality is that having played it that way, it would be daft to fold now and miss out on value from hands such as AK, JJ, TT, that were attacking the perceived weakness of my flat call.
If I had 3-bet pre, assuming the guy with AA then 4-bets..... the hand probably reaches the same conclusion. The table had been so aggro, that I wouldn"t have thought twice about 5-bet shoving myself.
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I think villains range is widened by Heros preflop line looking FOS with a smaller pocket pair, especially given the rather large 4bet sizing. I really don"t like 4bet folding queens in this spot
I suppose this could be the case and maybe often enough to justify getting 140 BB"s in pf.
why not 3bet pre and keep it simple?
Good question. Often in spots like these we just level ourselves in our attempt to level the opposition, we assume that they are adjusting but so many players just don"t adjust.
Disclaimer:
Got the "Warning - while you were typing a new reply has been posted. You may wish to review your post." message as I typed this and have read Steve"s last post. Will post anyway