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Non Poker Forum => Sports Betting & Discussion => Topic started by: nosey-p on August 15, 2014, 06:07:44 AM

Title: Football Bets
Post by: nosey-p on August 15, 2014, 06:07:44 AM
The forum has been going for about 7/8 years and we have never had a football betting thread so I"m going to start one. If you want to share your football knowledge  and your bets then post on here.

With the premiership starting, my first bet is a treble

Man U / Ars enal / Liverpool  1.3/1

All 3 have been playing well in pre-season, all at home  

3pts
Title: Re: Football Bets
Post by: nosey-p on August 15, 2014, 06:17:01 AM
Rotherham to beat Wolves

No reasoning behind this, just Rotherham is my team. Played really well against Darby and should have got a draw, only 4 players started against Fleetwood so would not read too much into that 0-0. Last year it was 3-3 at home and 6-4 at Wolves so expected to see plenty of goals

1pts Rotherham win  15/8
2pts over 2.5 goals  1/1      
Title: Re: Football Bets
Post by: nosey-p on August 17, 2014, 11:55:11 AM
not a good start -3pts

Liverpool to win -1  21/20

2pts

Title: Re: Football Bets
Post by: ronaldo07 on August 17, 2014, 17:31:11 PM

Rotherham to beat Wolves

No reasoning behind this, just Rotherham is my team. Played really well against Darby and should have got a draw, only 4 players started against Fleetwood so would not read too much into that 0-0. Last year it was 3-3 at home and 6-4 at Wolves so expected to see plenty of goals

1pts Rotherham win  15/8
2pts over 2.5 goals  1/1      



Nice win
Title: Re: Football Bets
Post by: noble1 on August 18, 2014, 18:04:08 PM
Burnley v Chelsea 18th August

back to lay
Burnley to win at 10.5 on bf

back to lay in correct score market
Burnley 1-0 @28"s

and i"m backing 1-1 @11"s with a view to lay, depends on how the match pans out...
Title: Re: Football Bets
Post by: noble1 on August 18, 2014, 20:19:51 PM

Burnley v Chelsea 18th August

back to lay
Burnley to win at 10.5 on bf

back to lay in correct score market
Burnley 1-0 @28"s

and i"m backing 1-1 @11"s with a view to lay, depends on how the match pans out...


back to lay in correct score market
Burnley 1-0 @28"s now 12"s got a profit

Burnley to win at 10.5 on bf  now 3.55 got a profit

and i"m backing 1-1 @11"s with a view to lay, depends on how the match pans out - currently 5.8 to draw 1-1 cos as i write Chelsea equalise, i might try to hang for half time :)
Title: Re: Football Bets
Post by: noble1 on August 18, 2014, 20:22:48 PM
lost out on the 1-1, but heyho a profit is a profit :)

i can see a few more goals yet lol lol... what a game :)
Title: Re: Football Bets
Post by: noble1 on August 18, 2014, 20:30:42 PM
Burnley @55"s to win, just for some interest i"ve backed at min with a view to lay off.... just for a wee bit of interest
Title: Re: Football Bets
Post by: noble1 on August 18, 2014, 20:36:12 PM

Burnley @55"s to win, just for some interest i"ve backed at min with a view to lay off.... just for a wee bit of interest


unless there is a miracle i may of just lost 2 quid lol lol
Title: Re: Football Bets
Post by: nosey-p on August 19, 2014, 06:48:33 AM
Looks like you are better at this as well  :D

Title: Re: Football Bets
Post by: AAroddersAA on August 19, 2014, 08:54:13 AM
As much as I hate to say it, for neutrals Mansfield has to be a good bet tonight @ 13/10. They had a very good result on Saturday and we look terrible at the moment. I really hope I am wrong but I would be going 2pts on that at the moment if I was not a County fan.
Title: Re: Football Bets
Post by: nosey-p on August 19, 2014, 09:15:49 AM
-5pts

Nont a great start to this thread 5 points down after the weekend.

Rotherham at home against Watford @ 2/1 looks temting but allthough they won on Saturday it was not convincing and by the reports we should have lost by 4 goals but Rotherham will be hard to beat at home and would not put anyone off them. Suprised they have not been more goals in there 2 games so far, they way they play would sugest plenty of goals but at 8/11 for over 2.5 looks a bit short so will give this a miss.

3 home games Reading, Coventry and Shresbury all started the season in good form all at home and all @ a decent price

2pts treble 8/1  

   
Title: Re: Football Bets
Post by: noble1 on August 19, 2014, 12:21:56 PM

Looks like you are better at this as well  :D


hmmm very doubtful Wayne, there was some basic logic to why i fancied a back to lay on Burnley...  its math based loosely on negative binomial distribution... i"m not a fan of trying to predict football, published forecast models are complete tosh imho, all the tripe by so called football experts on poisson distribution/regression or stats/rank based models/systems are complete balderdash, would anyone with an ounce of sense honestly believe that the best predictive programs are published for the public? of course they wouldn"t, the best prediction models are snapped up and used by the gambling industry/bookmakers, it crunches out its numbers and then a odds setter will adjust the models odds accounting for any extra info.....
anyhooooo"s thats my daily rant over with ;D i had browse of all the football expert tipsters on the internet out of interest today and boy oh boy my blood boiled at some of the math bo-llocks they come out with...

is my approach profitable? long term i don"t know... bare bones reasoning was i looked at Chelsea"s away record last year to see how often they conceded first, there defence at the time and whether or not Matic made any difference in the 2nd half of the season... hence i fancied Burnley to score first and at the odds pre-match i saw this as a half decent value back to lay bet....

on last nights showing i"m still on the fence as to whether or not Mourinho has plugged the defensive away problems his team had last year...
Title: Re: Football Bets
Post by: noble1 on August 19, 2014, 12:36:49 PM

-5pts

Nont a great start to this thread 5 points down after the weekend.

Rotherham at home against Watford @ 2/1 looks temting but allthough they won on Saturday it was not convincing and by the reports we should have lost by 4 goals but Rotherham will be hard to beat at home and would not put anyone off them. Suprised they have not been more goals in there 2 games so far, they way they play would sugest plenty of goals but at 8/11 for over 2.5 looks a bit short so will give this a miss.

3 home games Reading, Coventry and Shresbury all started the season in good form all at home and all @ a decent price

2pts treble 8/1  


just to put the pressure on you :) i"m going to back all your selections at £1 a point for the whole of the season :)

fingers crossed for tonight ;)
Title: Re: Football Bets
Post by: nosey-p on August 19, 2014, 15:50:25 PM


-5pts

Nont a great start to this thread 5 points down after the weekend.

Rotherham at home against Watford @ 2/1 looks temting but allthough they won on Saturday it was not convincing and by the reports we should have lost by 4 goals but Rotherham will be hard to beat at home and would not put anyone off them. Suprised they have not been more goals in there 2 games so far, they way they play would sugest plenty of goals but at 8/11 for over 2.5 looks a bit short so will give this a miss.

3 home games Reading, Coventry and Shresbury all started the season in good form all at home and all @ a decent price

2pts treble 8/1  


just to put the pressure on you :) i"m going to back all your selections at £1 a point for the whole of the season :)

fingers crossed for tonight ;)


tonight is my last bet  :D
Title: Re: Football Bets
Post by: nosey-p on August 20, 2014, 06:53:37 AM

As much as I hate to say it, for neutrals Mansfield has to be a good bet tonight @ 13/10. They had a very good result on Saturday and we look terrible at the moment. I really hope I am wrong but I would be going 2pts on that at the moment if I was not a County fan.


nice pick
Title: Re: Football Bets
Post by: nosey-p on August 20, 2014, 06:54:44 AM


-5pts

Nont a great start to this thread 5 points down after the weekend.

Rotherham at home against Watford @ 2/1 looks temting but allthough they won on Saturday it was not convincing and by the reports we should have lost by 4 goals but Rotherham will be hard to beat at home and would not put anyone off them. Suprised they have not been more goals in there 2 games so far, they way they play would sugest plenty of goals but at 8/11 for over 2.5 looks a bit short so will give this a miss.

3 home games Reading, Coventry and Shresbury all started the season in good form all at home and all @ a decent price

2pts treble 8/1  


just to put the pressure on you :) i"m going to back all your selections at £1 a point for the whole of the season :)

fingers crossed for tonight ;)


Hope you have deep pockets, this could get expensive  :)
Title: Re: Football Bets
Post by: noble1 on August 20, 2014, 08:59:54 AM

Hope you have deep pockets, this could get expensive  :)


lol not a problem, i"m prepared for a bit of variance :)
Title: Re: Football Bets
Post by: nosey-p on August 22, 2014, 09:27:23 AM
This week I have gone for one from each division

Hull at home have to be respected and at 6/4 looks value to me. Huddersfield are still without a manager and in the first 3 games, the form  looks very patchy so to see Charlton @ 13/5 is a surprise. Sheff Unt are one of the favourites to go up and will have to win their home games. Newport not won and Burton won all 3 so again at 6/4 looks good value.        



Huddersfield v Charlton @ 13/5
Sheff Utd v Crawley @ 3/4
Newport v Burton @ 6/4
Hull v Stoke @6/4

2pts 6 x doubles
1pts 4 x trebles
1pt 4 fold 38/1

17pts total

total after bets -24pts

Millwall v Rotherham @ 11/10 looks good but cannot back against my team
Title: Re: Football Bets
Post by: noble1 on August 30, 2014, 08:53:59 AM
2 away win bets for me today - Sunderland @12/5 and Southampton @7/4 - 2 singles and a double

good luck today Wayne, oooooh and c"mon on the toffee"s :)
Title: Re: Football Bets
Post by: nosey-p on October 13, 2014, 10:58:25 AM
Sorry not been on the site for a while, me and gambling have come to a disagreement so have not been betting on anything or nor will be in the near future so this thread is now cloesd. Which is a good thing has it was costing noble1 a fortune  :D