Amateur Poker Association & Tour

Non Poker Forum => Sports Betting & Discussion => Topic started by: Honeybadg on March 12, 2009, 08:52:57 AM

Title: Golf Gurus
Post by: Honeybadg on March 12, 2009, 08:52:57 AM
... I have invested some of yesterday"s profits on Geoff Ogilvy to win the CA Championship.

13/1 on Betair.

For me that is an outstanding price for the world No 4 who was in such imperious form at the Accenture Match Play.

Ogilvy won the event last year so I think that is worth some hay.

Tiger is a 3.7/1 shot in first Strokeplay tournament for 9 months (also great form on the course) but I would guess too early.

Casey 39/1 who Ogilvy beat in the final and McIlroy 31/1 who he beat more narrowly in a classic value too.

Thoughts?

L
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: lukybugur on March 12, 2009, 10:24:29 AM
Golf"s the only sport I take a punt on and now we have a spot on here for it  8)  Nice work L.

As all players have to play the 4 rounds (no cut), I"m lookin at the other young fit guys. I"m liking Betfair"s 45/1 odds on Ogilvy"s Cobra pal Camilo Villegas. I have a few £ on my Sky account and was attracted by their 50/1 odds on Robert Allenby - coming off a 5th in Honda Classic, he"s a great iron player, big off the tee and he finished tied 3rd in 2007.
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: lukybugur on March 12, 2009, 10:26:42 AM
WTF?? Sky have suspended betting on Allenby??
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Chipaccrual on March 12, 2009, 10:54:44 AM

WTF?? Sky have suspended betting on Allenby??


Wow, the market must really follow your posts on APAT Neil.   ;D

Sky are obviously running scared after your tip.
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Honeybadg on March 12, 2009, 11:17:44 AM
... yes I like Villegas ... I will make a small bet on that too ...

What is the story with Allenby?

It has been a while since I nailed a decent golf bet ... Goosen has cost me dear with last round collapses ... he likely has a decent chance too!

L
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: lukybugur on March 12, 2009, 11:44:43 AM
LOL ... well when you bet big stakes like £2.50 E/W ...  ;D

Goosen"s done you too L ... ? Crashing bottle has stopped me betting on him at all now.

Allenby"s stats are good - it"s a punt but a calculated one ;)
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Honeybadg on March 12, 2009, 11:51:52 AM
... why was the betting suspended?

Goosen ... I nearly hedged it last round ... but thought he could close it out ... he has won things ... so a tough beat.

More meetings ...

L
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: THEGUY84 on March 12, 2009, 12:38:29 PM
betting golf is great, I picked immelman to win master pre event and I won a tidy sum!! I like you piicks badg!!
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Swinebag on March 12, 2009, 12:56:22 PM
I love spread betting on golf. It keeps the excitement going for longer, even if your chosen player cant win or finish top 6.

Ogilvy seems a great pick. I"d like to see what he"s trading at on the spreads
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: lukybugur on March 12, 2009, 13:04:52 PM

... why was the betting suspended?


Dunno. I thought it might have been because I went through EasyOdds.com but when I logged onto SkyBet directly, same thing happened.

I"m on Allenby and Villegas as above. Ogilvy great value but two wins on the trot ... tough going.
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: lukybugur on March 12, 2009, 16:34:48 PM
Live Coverage on this at http://www.pgatour.com/liveat/r473/tour/player.html

Adam Scott, Jim Furyk and Rory McIllroy next on the tee - awesome.
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Honeybadg on March 12, 2009, 17:31:42 PM
... what"s that DOG Ogilivy up to! (+2)

Money on Goosen quite pleasing at -4!

L
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Honeybadg on March 12, 2009, 17:50:14 PM
... Allenby off to a go start ... but what is the Goose on ... -5 after 8 ...

He was second equal last year ... 69/1 looking good now! Into 15/1 now ... I think I would argue that is value ... though he has bitten me before!

Course looks playing easy ... shame my dogs are trailing up the rear.

Casey +2
Ogilvy +2

Who in earth is James Kingston -5 after 7? Worth a sliver at 162.5/1 ... right?

Louis
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Honeybadg on March 12, 2009, 21:11:11 PM
... nor sure what to make of Ogilvy ... though made it make to +1 ... fair chunk of money at 94/1 if you want it ... 8 shots and a lot of players in the way ...

My money shots in play.

Goosen -7 ... Betfair = 10.5
Kingston -6 ... Betfair = 70
Villegas -5 ... Betfair = 16.5

Harrington ominous at -6 after 17
McIlroy -4 after 16
Mickelson -4 after 15
Allenby -3 after 17

Looks like an amazing tournament in play.

Louis
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: lukybugur on March 13, 2009, 08:28:55 AM
Villegas -5 and Allenby -3 - I"m happy with that so far.
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Chipaccrual on March 13, 2009, 08:53:34 AM

Villegas -5 and Allenby -3 - I"m happy with that so far.


Is that good ?

My golf knowledge is up there with my horse racing tips.   ;D
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: rubertoe on March 13, 2009, 17:23:06 PM
With the Over Night leader at -7 there putting themselves in the Mix,

I see that Phil Micklson is @ -10 through the front 9 of the 2nd round - if he has a decent back 9 he could kibosh the lot!!!

I"d Always Back a non - American though - better prices generally - and other than an Injured woods - the ROTW world would spank the USofA!

E/W golf bets FTW!!!!
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: lukybugur on March 15, 2009, 08:49:22 AM
Mickelson and Watney on -16 , four shots ahead of J M Singh and Villegas. Here"s hoping big Phil does a Goosen ;)
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: rubertoe on March 15, 2009, 08:52:37 AM

Here"s hoping big Phil does a Goosen ;)


more than likely!!! ;D
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Honeybadg on March 18, 2009, 16:58:13 PM
... reading the Racing Post today ... they make the case for e/w bets on

DJ Trahan - 66/1
Mathew Goggin - 80/1

Looking through the leaderboards for the last 4 years ... 23/26 of the top finishers were 66/1 or more ... is this the GRAND NATIONAL of golf??

In 2004 - V Singh won at 9/2 ... but the 4 behind him were all long shots too ...

Worth a few pounds I would guess ...

Any thoughts?

Louis
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Swinebag on March 18, 2009, 19:54:13 PM


Looking through the leaderboards for the last 4 years ... 23/26 of the top finishers were 66/1 or more ... is this the GRAND NATIONAL of golf??


just remember that most winners of the GN are in the top 6 of the betting despite its false reputation of being a lottery
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Honeybadg on March 18, 2009, 21:18:20 PM
... I agree on Grand National at the off ... but some notable gambles ... Papillion was 33/1 at 9am and 10/1 at the off ... a glorious run!

So Lottery Ante Post ... skill based lottery nearer the off ... and the weather certainly adds to it ... in Papillion"s run the year after it won, it fell was re-mounted and came 4th of 4 finishers ...

Looking forward to it.

L
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Honeybadg on March 19, 2009, 15:50:40 PM
... a fine start in the golf ...

M Goggin -3 14
DJ Trahan -2 13

... but Furyk the new Mickelson ... -6 13

L
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: lukybugur on March 19, 2009, 16:29:42 PM
Was gonna spend some of my Villegas winnings on Kenny Perry E/W but .... nah ... I"ll sit this one out I think and wait for Augusta.
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Honeybadg on March 19, 2009, 17:09:18 PM
M Goggin -4
DJ Trahan -3

I may trade my position and take a free roll on these ... need betfair market to settle down ... very thin at times on these events.

Aside and for no apparent reason I took an interest in Paul Goydos at 309/1 ... yet to tee off ... NO FORM .. LOL ...

L
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: rubertoe on March 19, 2009, 17:23:14 PM
Where are We playing Louis -

PGA or European?

I like the Look of Paul Goydos at 309/1 as well!! you never know with golf - it is a fickle game!!

I"d Say Back Tiger to win soon rather than later - Probably the Masters!!! Any idea n the best Ante Post price - i cant be bothered to investigate~!
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: lukybugur on March 19, 2009, 17:32:29 PM
Quote
I like the Look of Paul Goydos at 309/1 as well!!


There"s a name for folk like you two ;)

Odds for Masters can be found here (http://www.easyodds.com/compareodds/Golf/Majors/m/214162-270-5.html)

I"m considering Paul Casey and Anthony Kim for this but will prob have a few bets on them in their Day 1 and Day 2 groups then and wait "til Saturday miorning - when I see how Mickelson and Woods are fairing - then pick a solid 10/1 or 14/1 shot.
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Honeybadg on March 19, 2009, 18:05:25 PM
I am punting on the US tour at the moment ... Transitions Championship.

Masters ... dangerous but I would oppose Tiger for the moment.

Mickelson 8.2/1 on Betfair is good enough.

But I would side with Furyk 41/1 ... or should I say I have sided with him!

Rory McIlroy is very interesting (too early?) - it wont be longer before he is winning things.

L
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: rubertoe on March 19, 2009, 18:36:24 PM

Quote
I like the Look of Paul Goydos at 309/1 as well!!


There"s a name for folk like you two ;)




Donkey"s!!


I am punting on the US tour at the moment ... Transitions Championship.

Masters ... dangerous but I would oppose Tiger for the moment.

Mickelson 8.2/1 on Betfair is good enough.

But I would side with Furyk 41/1 ... or should I say I have sided with him!

Rory McIlroy is very interesting (too early?) - it wont be longer before he is winning things.
L


Your not wrong - i think he will be huge for golf - as for to early you can get a decent price on and who knows this might be the longest price he ever is!!

J.M Singh at 100/1 is a fair each way bet - coming off a good place last weekend!

We shall wait and see what unfolds!
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Honeybadg on March 20, 2009, 12:00:24 PM
... Kenny Perry going great ...

I had traded my position as follows:

Googin win +£605
DJ Trahan win +£905
Goydos win (not going to happen - donkey bet) +£1545

The Field - £5

I am liking the look of that!!!

Louis
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: lukybugur on March 20, 2009, 12:07:52 PM

... Kenny Perry going great ...


... when I"ve no money on him ... standard :)
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Honeybadg on March 20, 2009, 16:43:56 PM
... Perry + 3 today ... so drifting out of contention ...

L
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: rubertoe on March 20, 2009, 16:55:41 PM


... Kenny Perry going great ...


... when I"ve no money on him ... standard :)


I was gonna Suggest Mr Perry as a possible for the Masters - Might get on him early doors
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: lukybugur on March 20, 2009, 17:03:24 PM
Augusta"s an uphill slog for even the fittest players. For that reason, I"ll not take Perry in it.
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Honeybadg on March 20, 2009, 17:19:45 PM
... Goggin birdies the first ... excellent work ...

Whenever I think of Kenny Perry I think of a tractor ...

L
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Honeybadg on March 21, 2009, 13:42:29 PM
... small bets on Appleby and JJ Henry ... golf is the new lottery ...

L
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Honeybadg on March 22, 2009, 18:59:08 PM
Googin is on the charge ... -4 today through 11 today ... just one of the lead.

Appelby one shot further back ...

Chances going in the final day ... all you can ask for in golf.
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: lukybugur on March 22, 2009, 19:27:08 PM
Goggin - bogey"d 12th, par 13th ... still in there
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Honeybadg on March 26, 2009, 15:11:03 PM
... perhaps this should become my Golf Hoodoo"s page ...

Anyway albeit late I have minor interests in

Bart Bryant @106/1 - he was second to Woods last year.
Steve Flesch @107/1 - in decent form - why not?

I believe it is too early for Woods ... how can he be value at 5/2 ... cue a -20 blitz ...

L
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Honeybadg on March 27, 2009, 11:26:39 AM
LAY THE TIGER ...

How can he be a 13/8 shot???

L
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Honeybadg on March 27, 2009, 13:53:54 PM
... opposing the Tiger the usual scary proposition ... into 6/5 ... 23 holes in ... smile.

Tempting to LAY more ...

L
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Honeybadg on March 28, 2009, 21:49:53 PM
...I locked out once Tiger hit 15/1 ... so minimum of $165 profit ... another $50 if O"Hair wins ... my other runners ran off ...

All said and done ... the tiger is looking very good given the lay off ... (still not a 13/8 shot after day 1)

L
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: lukybugur on March 29, 2009, 22:06:37 PM
O"Hair -7 at start of today, 5 shots ahead of Woods.

O"Hair +2 after 8 holes today and Woods -2 after 8.

O"Hair -5
Woods -4

Padraig Harrington at -1 with 7 holes left to play (-2 for today)

DRAMA!!!
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Honeybadg on March 29, 2009, 22:45:05 PM
... happily I am not exposed to the Tiger now ... money made!

I think -4 will win it ... so if someone could post a score real pressure on Tiger and O"Hair.
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: lukybugur on March 29, 2009, 22:52:57 PM
O"Hair birdies 9 for a 2 shot lead then bogeys 10 - doh!  His bum is squeaking now me thinx :D
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Honeybadg on March 30, 2009, 00:56:00 AM
Well played the infinite Tiger ... outrageous genius ... was sitting @ 15/1 yesterday ... scary stuff for the rest of golf ...

L
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Honeybadg on April 01, 2009, 11:58:29 AM
Stuart Appleby worth a look in The Lowdown  - Houston Open @ 40/1

He won there in 2006
Second Equal in 2007
(23rd last year)

Appleby 8th at the "Transitions" two weeks ago.

Pondering Mickelson at 8/1 - Imperious in last win - but short enough.

L

Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Swinebag on April 01, 2009, 13:14:50 PM
golf spread betting FTW!!
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Honeybadg on April 01, 2009, 13:17:47 PM
... spreadbetting far too scary for me ...

I like trading on Betfair ... feels a bit more controlled ...

L
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: lukybugur on April 01, 2009, 20:14:16 PM
That sounds like very decent odds on Appleby. Moseying on over to easyodds.com just now ...

Bet placed - E/W at 33s on SkyBet.
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Honeybadg on April 02, 2009, 13:28:20 PM
Steve Stricker very good at 21/1 on Betfair too ...

L
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: lukybugur on April 03, 2009, 19:10:00 PM
Paul Casey being offered up at 49/1 on Betfair for the Masters. BlueSq offering 45/1 which is also pretty good.

Appleby +1 after 8 holes in Rd1 of Shell Houston. I ain"t worried yet.
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Honeybadg on April 03, 2009, 23:21:28 PM
Ogilvy on fire ... how sick!

Just got back from football ... definite black eye ... sigh!

Good game though ... 70 mins of 8 a-side ... 5-5 ... my shots blocked and saved ... distribution terrible ... defensive duties pretty spot on ... including saving the ball with my FACE!

L
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Honeybadg on April 04, 2009, 01:04:43 AM
... go Appelby -7 ... chances ...

Louis
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Honeybadg on April 06, 2009, 12:03:23 PM
Fair play to Casey who wins the first play off hole with a bogey 5 ... albeit on the toughest par 4 I have ever seen ...

On the final day ... average shots = 5.2 ... one birdie all day.

Tee-side effectively over the SEA ... GENIUS ... into the teeth of the wind.

L
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: lukybugur on April 08, 2009, 08:59:42 AM
I can"t see past Tiger for the Masters this weekend so have decided to look for a couple of E/W bets.

I have Paul Casey who I got at 49/1 last week (now 29s on BetFair)

Wife wanted a couple of £ on both Padraig Harrington (20/1 on BetFair) and Camilo Villegas (60/1 on BetFair) both to win.

I like Appleby at 160/1 on his 13th Masters Appearance ... hmmm
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Honeybadg on April 08, 2009, 13:15:14 PM
... I am remembering how much of a lottery golf is!

Casey is good value ... there is a prescedent for people winning the Masters on the back of the event before ...

Woods - the ultimate Tiger - he is plenty short - but pretty amazing - my view will be to hope that he birdies the first and then lay him at what ever ridiculous price he goes to - but with a view to g"tee profits when he bogeys the next.

The tournament he won - I made £120 on trading against him - (and then closing as he drifted).

Stenson at 45/1 is good.

And I have a sprinkling of "value" bets ...

Furyk
O"Hair
Appelby
Perez
DJ Trahan
JM Singh

These bets are sponsored by this morning poker wins.

L
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: ThinkerJE on April 08, 2009, 21:55:05 PM
Woods will win, therefore I am on these 5 EW in the without woods market.

Karlsson 35/1
O"Hair 40/1
Cink 50/1
Leonard 66/1
Flesch 175/1

Consider them all bokked!!!
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: lukybugur on April 08, 2009, 22:00:19 PM
Some worthy bets there JE, two of whom I have considered too in Karlsson and Cink. Cink is great odds at 50/1 without Woods but he"s gone off the boil a wee bit recently.

GL!
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Honeybadg on April 08, 2009, 23:17:52 PM
I like the Karlsson bet ...

Tiger a dangerous foe to oppose but 5/2 is either pretty short (as I think) or it should be lumped??

He only beat O"Hair by a shot ... and O"Hair bottled it ... Tiger immense ... but don"t think he is a cert.

L
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Swinebag on April 09, 2009, 00:35:13 AM
My picks FWIW

Tim Clark sell @ 40
Adam Scott sell @ 40
Luke Donald sell @ 35

all in the finishing positions (96 max) market. These are all straight but not long hitters, so cant win but can do well.

i"ve also bought hole in ones @ 0.58 (16th hole is magnetic on sunday!!)
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Honeybadg on April 09, 2009, 14:54:21 PM

My picks FWIW

Tim Clark sell @ 40
Adam Scott sell @ 40
Luke Donald sell @ 35

all in the finishing positions (96 max) market. These are all straight but not long hitters, so cant win but can do well.

i"ve also bought hole in ones @ 0.58 (16th hole is magnetic on sunday!!)


Scary stuff - good luck.

L
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: THEGUY84 on April 09, 2009, 18:21:07 PM
i have time clark aswell, luke donald, stuart cink and robert allenby
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Honeybadg on April 09, 2009, 23:43:14 PM
Looks like we have lots of live runners ...

I am on the biggest chokers in the world.

Furyk -6
O"Hair -4

Time to lay the down side on Betfair!

L
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Honeybadg on April 10, 2009, 17:15:18 PM
Joint Favourites.

Chad Campbell -10 8 holes
Tiger Woods -2 4 holes

L
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: lukybugur on April 11, 2009, 10:41:09 AM
5 picks and 5 cuts made;

Mine: Appleby, Kim, Casey (All E/W)

Julia"s: Harrington, Villegas (both to Win)

Kenny Perry going very well :) ... when I don"t have money on him ... yet ...
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Honeybadg on April 11, 2009, 10:56:12 AM
How are you pricing the match bet:

T Woods vs S Lyle - battle of the champions?

Looks like a terrific tournament end shaping up.

Could be some good trading tonight!

L
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: lukybugur on April 11, 2009, 10:57:51 AM
I don"t understand all this "trading" stuff. The only reason we took Harrington and Villegas to win was because we couldn"t get E/W on Betfair  :-\

Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Honeybadg on April 11, 2009, 16:36:15 PM
Trading - more on Tiger whose odds fly about all over the place almost by the shot.

Back at value - lay when it gets short - can end up with profit irrespective of result.

Looking forward to it.

L
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: duke3016 on April 11, 2009, 18:19:38 PM
Harrigton takes a 9 at the par 5 2nd, wave bye bye to the shirt.......
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Honeybadg on April 11, 2009, 19:06:37 PM

Harrigton takes a 9 at the par 5 2nd, wave bye bye to the shirt.......


Savage ... was looks pretty good ...

L
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: duke3016 on April 11, 2009, 20:30:41 PM

Harrigton takes a 9 at the par 5 2nd, wave bye bye to the shirt.......


Followed by three birdies -- swiftly followed by two bogeys -- he"s dying out there
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Honeybadg on April 12, 2009, 00:19:45 AM
I fancy Steve Stricker to post a score ... 23/1 on Betfair looks good.

I don"t fancy Campbell nor Furyk.

Not sure about "tractor man" Perry either ...

It points to a lump on Cabrera at 5/2 - but that feels pretty short.

Should be fun to watch whilst playing the league match assuming I can stay alive!

L
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Santino67 on April 12, 2009, 09:06:18 AM
Get your money on Furyk  8)
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: lukybugur on April 12, 2009, 09:56:58 AM
This is such an open field today ... Cabrera looked the most comfortable yesterday but I"m fancying Perry who has four wins already this season. I hope the others make him play for it though. Estimated winning score; -12.
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: MintTrav on April 12, 2009, 12:15:39 PM
Come on Steve Stringer.

Its not every year there"s an APAT member with a chance of taking down a golf major.
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Honeybadg on April 12, 2009, 14:41:41 PM

Get your money on Furyk  8)


I had some money on Furyk Ante Post - so chopped the down side risk and get to free roll tonight.

Not convinced but will cheer on with you.

L
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Santino67 on May 03, 2009, 13:54:41 PM


Get your money on Furyk  8)


I had some money on Furyk Ante Post - so chopped the down side risk and get to free roll tonight.

Not convinced but will cheer on with you.

L


Isn"t he just a total donkey. Really needs to sort that "swing" out  :D
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Honeybadg on May 22, 2009, 08:25:29 AM
Here is my latest attempt to land a golf bet this year.

Niclas Fasth for the PGA Championship.

Started with a 4 under 68 yesterday - one off the lead - worth a shout at 33/1 (Betfair).

Value?

L
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: lukybugur on June 17, 2009, 18:18:17 PM
US Open this weekend ... weeeeeeeeeeeeeee

I got my main pick Poulter at 90/1 and, as I had £4 on my SkyBet account, I threw £2 on Casey at 25/1 and £2 on KJ Choi at 125/1.

Julia picked her "two hunks" Harrington at 50/1 and Villegas at 60/1.

WillHill offering the best odds on 26 of the top 30 players so dep"d there this afternoon.
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Honeybadg on June 17, 2009, 18:37:31 PM
... I have money on O"Hair ... but starting to think it might be a Tiger week!

L
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: ThinkerJE on June 17, 2009, 21:01:08 PM
My 3 against the field;

Ogilvy, Casey & O Hair.

I am on EW in the without Woods market, as I think the Tiger may cruise to victory (but can"t back him at 2/1).

Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Honeybadg on June 18, 2009, 11:57:25 AM
Money coming for O"Hair ... I backed at 74/1 when I posted ... now best priced 59/1 ...

I cannot decide if he will ever do it ... or just perpetually choke.

I like Casey ... in the form of his life ...

But GOLF = LOTTERY ... with one miss-priced golden ticket = TIGER WOODS.

With this in mind had a small bet on Charlie Wi at 259/1 ...

Good luck all.

L
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: lukybugur on June 18, 2009, 12:29:44 PM
This monster course from a Pro"s perspective ...

http://cobratourblog.com/2009/06/15/geoff-ogilvy-us-open-preview/

I think it"ll be damage limitation again (typical US Open). I think it"s gonna be about who"s best at hitting 5 woods / rescue clubs / long irons into par4s.
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Swinebag on June 18, 2009, 17:59:32 PM
sold finishing positions for

Tim Clark @ 36
Adam Scott @ 51
O"Hair @ 34

also first round matches

goosen v els
stenson v stricker (losing so far)
campbell v curtis (getting hammered so far)
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Swinebag on June 19, 2009, 18:03:50 PM

sold finishing positions for

Tim Clark @ 36 will do well to break even on this one
Adam Scott @ 51 - looking ok
O"Hair @ 34 - (-2 at the moment) - only picked him because Louis tipped him

also first round matches

goosen v els - looking good
stenson v stricker - small win here
campbell v curtis - took a royal beating there
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Honeybadg on June 20, 2009, 11:06:41 AM


sold finishing positions for

Tim Clark @ 36 will do well to break even on this one
Adam Scott @ 51 - looking ok
O"Hair @ 34 - (-2 at the moment) - only picked him because Louis tipped him

also first round matches

goosen v els - looking good
stenson v stricker - small win here
campbell v curtis - took a royal beating there



O"Hair ... good start ... he is a notorious choker so keep that one monitored!

O"Hair now 18/1 on Betfair which is pretty short ... so  I have closed my position down to a freeroll on O"Hair.

Not as short as Tiger ... 6.6/1 Favourite ... ten off the lead ... with funds in the bank I would lay that all day ... mmm

L
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Swinebag on June 21, 2009, 01:30:58 AM
closed Scott and O"hair for a decent profit. match bets doing ok after the curtis/campbell fiasco.
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Honeybadg on June 21, 2009, 11:03:58 AM

closed Scott and O"hair for a decent profit. match bets doing ok after the curtis/campbell fiasco.


Good work ... what happened between Curtis/Campbell? ... last I recall Campbell was +15 ...

Should be an amazing day today if the weather let"s the play 36 holes ...

Getting a little tempted by Steve Stricker at 24/1 ...

L
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Swinebag on June 21, 2009, 13:55:45 PM

what happened between Curtis/Campbell?


I sold curtis v campbell @ 4  (3 points a hole +10 for the win). campbell shot a 80, curtis a 72. Thats 30 points down, which was the maximum I thought I could lose on this bet. I just thought that, given his good showing in augusta, it was amazing that Curtis was favourite for the match


Getting a little tempted by Steve Stricker at 24/1 ...


good shout. I"m having a little punt on him (not sure which market yet). He"s been playing well all week after getting the worst of the conditions earlier on.
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Honeybadg on June 21, 2009, 14:09:56 PM


what happened between Curtis/Campbell?


I sold curtis v campbell @ 4  (3 points a hole +10 for the win). campbell shot a 80, curtis a 72. Thats 30 points down, which was the maximum I thought I could lose on this bet. I just thought that, given his good showing in augusta, it was amazing that Curtis was favourite for the match


Getting a little tempted by Steve Stricker at 24/1 ...


good shout. I"m having a little punt on him (not sure which market yet). He"s been playing well all week after getting the worst of the conditions earlier on.


Course and conditions brutal if you get it wrong ...

Mickelson holed a massive par putt on the 1st last night ... and seemed very focussed ... at the moment my book reads

The Field -£10
Stricker +£240
O"Hair +£735

... so I will look forward to losing £10 with due relish ... smile ...

Massive sports and poker day ... with golf and Sunday Warm Up to follow ...

Cricket final should be good.

L
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Honeybadg on June 21, 2009, 18:33:58 PM
Barnes totally on fire ... still 13/5 ... and just about everyone else going backwards ... mmm

L
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: lukybugur on July 13, 2009, 09:39:16 AM
Right, The Open time. What are your bets?

Rory McIlroy has dropped from 100/1 to 25/1 - I take it the bookies watched him shoot 63 round Turnberry a fortnight ago in a practice round too.

The Ailsa course favours someone who draws the ball and can hit fairways. I"m going for the straightest of them all David Toms E/W at 80/1 on WillHill and another couple of quid E/W on Jim Furyk at 40/1.
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Honeybadg on July 13, 2009, 10:18:25 AM
You can get 39/1 on McIlroy on Betfair ... seems big but not keen on how he scored at Loch Lomond (often a good indicator).

My team for the Open are as follows:

Hunter Mahan
Martin Kaymer
Steve Stricker
Zach Johnson
Nick Watney

... let"s see how this mob fair ...

L
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: lukybugur on July 15, 2009, 18:12:41 PM
Having been there today (sweating buckets with the MANY thousands who"d obv seen the BBC Weather Forecast for heavy showers"), I return with one name for youz to look out for;

Ryo Ishikawa

He"s a 17 year old Japanese kid and is simply AWESOME! Forget Rory McIlroy, Ryo is the talk of the Ailsa course. He has a local caddie (who just says "hit this" and hands him a club). I"ve just got back in and lumped some hard earned on him to finish top 10 at 54/1 on Betfair.
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Honeybadg on July 15, 2009, 22:37:32 PM
... nice tip ... looking forward to watching this tomorrow PM.

L
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: GR8TFL0P on July 15, 2009, 23:17:34 PM


Clarke, Darren
Rose, Justin      
Mcilroy, Rory    
Westwood    
Poulter
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: ThinkerJE on July 16, 2009, 00:44:52 AM
Paddy Power are huge at 13/5 for Woods and I have lumped on.

My other EW interests are;

Fisher 55/1
Curtis 66/1
Watney 100/1
Romero 150/1

Looking forward to a great tournament.
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: lukybugur on July 16, 2009, 07:56:44 AM
Quote
Curtis 66/1


Not daft. His putting looked pretty clever yesterday.
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Chipaccrual on July 16, 2009, 14:09:01 PM

Having been there today (sweating buckets with the MANY thousands who"d obv seen the BBC Weather Forecast for heavy showers"), I return with one name for youz to look out for;

Ryo Ishikawa

He"s a 17 year old Japanese kid and is simply AWESOME! Forget Rory McIlroy, Ryo is the talk of the Ailsa course. He has a local caddie (who just says "hit this" and hands him a club). I"ve just got back in and lumped some hard earned on him to finish top 10 at 54/1 on Betfair.


-2 for his first round.  Good spot Mr Dawson.

He"s now 9.4 on Betfair to make top 10
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Honeybadg on July 16, 2009, 16:38:43 PM
Great tip indeed ...

... just got back to watch ... O"Casey who was going to be my tip (pre reading about illnesses and so on) ... going great guns ... SCREAM!

L
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Swinebag on July 16, 2009, 19:42:37 PM
sold Ishikawa finishing position @ 60 (looking good - thanks Neil :))
sold Toms finishing position @ 45 (not looking too good here - thanks Neil >:()

first round match sold curtis v wier @ 1 ( lost 15 points here - cant blame Neil for this)
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: lukybugur on July 16, 2009, 19:54:51 PM
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Honeybadg on July 16, 2009, 20:53:08 PM
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Honeybadg on July 17, 2009, 09:17:28 AM
Looks like it is going to be a real test today with the breeze getting up.

Might be -7 to lead tonight (I believe).

Retief Goosen out early - could be that leader ... mmm

L
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Honeybadg on July 17, 2009, 10:16:24 AM
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Honeybadg on July 17, 2009, 15:57:48 PM
... good recovery from the Ginger Genius ...

Not sure what the weather is like over on the West side of Scotland ... but pretty foul on the East ...

I recall with clarity someone telling me this was going to be a great summer weather-wise ... (like every other summer!)

I nearly got hit by a hail stone the size of two co-joined peas the other day (in London).

Edinburgh - 50 Miles ... let"s get on it.

Louis
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Honeybadg on July 19, 2009, 10:11:06 AM
Mathew Goggin must have a shout at 12/1 on Betfair ...

Would be nice to spike a golf bet ...

L
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: SirPercival on July 19, 2009, 12:48:57 PM
Guy next to me at APAT event yesterday has £1e/w on Watson at 1000/1
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Honeybadg on July 19, 2009, 13:30:12 PM

Guy next to me at APAT event yesterday has £1e/w on Watson at 1000/1


It would be an epic result ...

I make money on Goosen and Goggin ... lose on most of the rest ... unless Kaymer comes in with a massive run ...

L
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: lukybugur on July 19, 2009, 13:59:33 PM
I think 18s on Cink is still a great bet. I got him on Friday night at 35s.
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: THEGUY84 on July 19, 2009, 18:16:13 PM
I picked chris wood each way at 250 to 1, nice win fall!!
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: lukybugur on July 19, 2009, 20:24:14 PM

I think 18s on Cink is still a great bet. I got him on Friday night at 35s.


Weeeeeeeeeeee ... ship it! Congrats to Cink. I was considering lumping more on him this morning when I posted above. Och well.


I picked chris wood each way at 250 to 1, nice win fall!!


Very nice!
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: ForthThistle on July 19, 2009, 21:32:34 PM
175/1 pre Tourney..

50P EW..

£109.75 back..

Class
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: lukybugur on August 10, 2009, 19:12:46 PM
PGA time in the world of Major Golf.

I have backed only two players at the moment - a couple of quid on M A Jimenez at 150/1 and S O"Hair at 100/1. I"ll no doubt want to re-assess come Friday night / Saturday morning.

Who y"all fancying for it ... ?
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Honeybadg on August 10, 2009, 21:04:18 PM
... I think I might just declare this a TIGER tournament ... not going to back him as odds are too short ... but happy to see him win.

L
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: ThinkerJE on August 11, 2009, 23:41:57 PM

... I think I might just declare this a TIGER tournament ... not going to back him as odds are too short ... but happy to see him win.

L


I agree so will be concentrating on the without woods market, although I had him as a penalty kick for the open!!!

Will be doing homework tomorrow, course is very long with 3 par 5"s over 600 yards, so it may pay to keep the sluggers on our side...
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: ThinkerJE on August 13, 2009, 00:37:34 AM
Ok, my 6 boks against the field (all backed on the magic machine in the without Woods market);

Garcia 34
Villegas 50
Weekly 120
Kelly 95
Rollins 114
Flesch 210

Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: lukybugur on August 13, 2009, 08:55:29 AM
I"ve just put £2 on Rich Beem at 9/1 to win his 3ball of Woods and Harrington today ... and it appears to have crashed the Betfair website.  :-\
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: lukybugur on August 13, 2009, 17:16:50 PM
Beem has just made up three shots in three holes on Tigger and Paddy - all -2 at the half-way mark.
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: ThinkerJE on August 15, 2009, 02:07:11 AM

Ok, my 6 boks against the field (all backed on the magic machine in the without Woods market);

Garcia 34  MISSED CUT
Villegas 50  +2
Weekly 120  +4
Kelly 95  MISSED CUT
Rollins 114  +2
Flesch 210  +3




Not a good week so far...
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: ThinkerJE on August 15, 2009, 02:08:04 AM

... I think I might just declare this a TIGER tournament ... not going to back him as odds are too short ... but happy to see him win.

L


-7 at halfway, ship it!!!
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: lukybugur on August 15, 2009, 08:58:28 AM

PGA time in the world of Major Golf.

I have backed only two players at the moment - a couple of quid on M A Jimenez at 150/1 and S O"Hair at 100/1.


Both made the cut (as did Rich Beem, who I also had a couple of £ on at 710/1).

Don"t think it means much now mind you.  :-\

G"awn the Tiger!
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: ThinkerJE on August 15, 2009, 21:05:54 PM


Ok, my 6 boks against the field (all backed on the magic machine in the without Woods market);

Garcia 34  MISSED CUT
Villegas 50  +2
Weekly 120  +4
Kelly 95  MISSED CUT
Rollins 114  +2
Flesch 210  +3




Not a good week so far...


Villegas 50  +6
Weekly 120  +3
Rollins 114  -2
Flesch 210  E

All in the clubhouse, will be interesting to see where Rollins ends up at end of round 3...

Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Honeybadg on August 16, 2009, 09:55:20 AM
... are we going to get a Tiger wobble?

Tiger 1/3
Harrington 6/1
Yang 21/1

Yang 68 might win it!?!

Worth a little bit?

L
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: ThinkerJE on August 16, 2009, 18:04:03 PM
Still think Tiger is nailed on.  Yang will struggle today, I expect someone from the pack to go low and make the top 5, maybe Westwood or McIlroy, looking forward to a night of top golf and poker...
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Honeybadg on August 16, 2009, 18:16:59 PM

Still think Tiger is nailed on.  Yang will struggle today, I expect someone from the pack to go low and make the top 5, maybe Westwood or McIlroy, looking forward to a night of top golf and poker...


Just a little bet ... if Yang gets a solid start and Tiger doesn"t could get interesting ...

If I were in profit I would lay Tiger at 1/3 ish ... I would expect profit to be made as the round progresses.

I think I am going to fade about 10pm so no poker and early night required!

Good luck.

L
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: duke3016 on August 16, 2009, 21:22:05 PM
Harrington ?

thoughts  ?

mine - i think he is goosed now -- oops
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: duke3016 on August 16, 2009, 21:27:11 PM
OMG -- bye bye Mr Harrington  - bad 8th
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: duke3016 on August 16, 2009, 21:28:25 PM
5 over par -- GG WP NH
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Honeybadg on August 16, 2009, 21:48:46 PM

... are we going to get a Tiger wobble?

Tiger 1/3
Harrington 6/1
Yang 21/1

Yang 68 might win it!?!

Worth a little bit?

L


Nice little freeroll on Yang ... tied for the lead with ten to play.

L
Title: Re: Golf Gurus
Post by: Honeybadg on August 17, 2009, 07:11:10 AM


... are we going to get a Tiger wobble?

Tiger 1/3
Harrington 6/1
Yang 21/1

Yang 68 might win it!?!

Worth a little bit?

L


Nice little freeroll on Yang ... tied for the lead with ten to play.

L


Shattered - I went to bed after the chip in at 14 - what a shot.

Yang was tremendous - Tiger wayward.

+£166 - sweet.

L