Amateur Poker Association & Tour
Non Poker Forum => Sports Betting & Discussion => Topic started by: Swinebag on March 31, 2009, 16:04:08 PM
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Intro
For a lot of races, form is a deciding factor when making a selection. The Grand National is a unique race in the british racing calendar, in that there is no real form to go on. Therefore, it is useful to make your selection on a more scientific / trends basis rather than form. It is a myth that the National is a lottery. In a lot of ways it is quite an easy race to predict if you follow these basic guidlines......(you will need to go to sportinglife.com to check out the horses though)
Weight
Given the stiffness of test that the GN poses, you can pretty much put a line through horses carrying 11st or more. I go for 11st2 to be on the safe side.
nationality
No french winner for ages (100 years plus) from a large entry list. French horses just haven"t got the bloodstock for 4m4f. Irish trained horses have a great record.
age
pick horses aged between 8 and 12 (9 and 10 year olds have the best record)
headgear
comply or die was the first horse in 75 years to win with headgear on (It ticked all the other boxes though)
stamina
look to horses that have run over at least 24f (preferably 26f). A lot of GN horses are run over 16-20f for the season then expected to cope with the GN...not going to happen!!
national course experience
Look to horses that have run over the big fences before, either at the GN before, but preferably at another race (either earlier in the season or at the aintree festival before)
jumping ability
those with at least 2 Fs or Us against their name are best avoided, especially those that have raced and fallen at Aintree before. (hedgehunter and West tip are the only exceptions that stand out)
horses that ran in the cheltenham festival 3 weeks before are best avoided
what it says on the tin really. the best GN horses are trained specifically for this race and can even have their final prep race as a hurdle race on some dodgy provincial track (not at the world cup of jump racing!!)
Tactics
Prominent racers rule here. Discard horses that like to be held up. Most winners are normally there or thereabouts after the first circuit.
market forces
look to the first 8 in the betting. This is normally where I start when making a selection. As i put earlier, it is a myth that the GN is a lottery. The good thing is that because it is a 40 horse race you can get tremendous value on any horse in the top 8 (even the favourite). Cynics will point to Silver birch (33/1) and a few others over the years but as a trend, this is a pretty strong one.
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I posted this in the knowledge that I am not going to cardiff so am safe from a good lynching. I will put my predictions at the final declaration stage. Good luck everyone
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I look forward to your selections ...
I agree with most of what you write ... but Comply or Die did break the headgear rule ... though had won over 4 miles at Newcastle 2/3 months before - Dominant factor.
In terms of outsiders:
1987 - Maori Venture - 28/1
1989 - Little Polveir - 28/1 (I backed at 33/1)
1995 - Royal Athlete - 40/1 (80/1 in the run up to the big day)
2001 - Red Marauder - 33/1
2002 - Bindaree - 20/1
2007 - Silver Birch - 33/1
Also worth noting that Papillon was 33/1 (which I backed) on the morning of the National backed into 10/1 on the day.
Do you think the 11 stone (or 11 stone 2) rule holds this year ... most years there are lots running off 10 stone 0 ... this year I think the lightest is going to be c10 stone 4 or 5.
I think that I did say it was "a lottery" elsewhere ... maybe a skill based lottery.
I will give you a friendly challenge - select 4 horses - 10 points for the win, 6pts for second place, 4pts for third place, 2pts for fourth. (Or some other points system)
Louis
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good points louis,
but I did make the point about comply or die in my OP.
as for the outsiders, you picked 6 in 20 years, which sort of backs my point up from a trends view.
from those
silver birch was a sneaky one as it had been injured, sold by the owner and was no longer a nicholls trained horse, but it did have serious course history (was gutted I missed that one). Red marauder is considered a freak result on the tail end of foot and mouth.
I do think the weight trend is getting weaker and looks set to be broken soon. This years national is set to be run on good ground so it could be this year, especially with, as you say a much compressed handicap.
I"ll happily have a 4 v 4. though I think we may pick some horses the same so it could be 2 v 2. Points system is fine
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Headgear - I know you wrote it - but are you saying to avoid them this year - or neutral? - I would just ignore as may be weak horses that usually get their hats put on for the race.
6 from 20 ... lots of other 16/1 shots too (which may have drifted in and out of the top 8 during betting).
Papillion was outside the top 8 on the morning of the race.
4 vs 4.
I am sure you wont be on Irish Invader! (I am!)
Looking forward to the challenge.
L
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Back a brown one.
That"s all.
:o
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You can"t underestimate the number of legs required to carry a beast around a course as trying as Aintree. Look for four. Ideally one in each corner. ;D
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my early picks which i have had a nibble at on betfair ....
1.Darkness
2.Cornish Sett
3.Butlers Cabin
4.Hear The Echo
I bet on a great horse yesterday! It took seven horses to beat him.
The Lone Ranger and Tonto walked into a bar and sat down to drink a beer. After a few minutes, a big tall cowboy walked in and said...
"Who owns the big white horse outside?"
The Lone Ranger stood up, hitched his gun belt, and said, "I do...Why?"
The cowboy looked at the Lone Ranger and said, "I just thought you would like to know that your horse is about dead outside!"
The Lone Ranger and Tonto rushed outside, and sure enough, Silver was ready to die from heat exhaustion. The Lone Ranger got the horse water, and soon, Silver was starting to feel a little better.
The Lone Ranger turned to Tonto and said, "Tonto, I want you to run around Silver and see if you can create enough of a breeze to make him start to feel better."
Tonto said, "Sure, Kemosabe," and took off running circles around Silver.
Not able to do anything else but wait, the Lone Ranger returned to the bar to finish his drink.
A few minutes later, another cowboy struts into the bar and asks, "Who owns that big white horse outside?"
The Lone Ranger stands again, and claims, "I do, what"s wrong with him this time?"
The cowboy looks him in the eye and says, "Nothing, but you left your Injun runnin"."
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My four picks
1. Parsons legacy
2. kilbeggan blade
3. state of play
4. rambling minster
of those the only one that I can pick with confidence is Parsons Legacy. I"m slightly worried about kilbeggan blades and state of plays stamina for this race. rambling minster ticks all the boxes but is a hold up horse and they tend to do badly in the national. If the jockey can keep him up with the pace then its got a great chance.
I cant have the favourites for a lot of reasons
My will and Butlers Cabin will be the first french breds for over 100 years to win if they do it. Black apalachi and southern vic have fallen at the big fences before so are unreliable choices.
I think this could be an outsiders year, so the "stick a pin and hope" brigade could be quids in this year!!
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My four picks
1. Parsons legacy
2. kilbeggan blade
3. state of play
4. rambling minster
of those the only one that I can pick with confidence is Parsons Legacy. I"m slightly worried about kilbeggan blades and state of plays stamina for this race. rambling minster ticks all the boxes but is a hold up horse and they tend to do badly in the national. If the jockey can keep him up with the pace then its got a great chance.
I cant have the favourites for a lot of reasons
My will and Butlers Cabin will be the first french breds for over 100 years to win if they do it. Black apalachi and southern vic have fallen at the big fences before so are unreliable choices.
I think this could be an outsiders year, so the "stick a pin and hope" brigade could be quids in this year!!
Compare : "It is a myth that the National is a lottery"
I will finish preliminary trading on betfair - once they unsuspend their market - and declare my big 4.
They will defo be lead by Rambling Minster though ...
Weather forecast is for heavy rain in Liverpool on Friday night and Saturday (but not before).
What are your thougths on that? (My thoughts - CARNAGE!)
L
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Rain will save the clerk watering the course. Going should still be good/ good to soft. The last soft/heavy national was in 2004. Amberleigh house fitted the trends and so did hedgehunter (who was leading but fell at the last)
There is no comparison to the statement "Its a myth that the national is a lottery".
That comment is based on trends, not certainties. Its just that this year, there doesn"t seem to be a single horse without a negative trend for this race and that is rare.
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My four picks
1. Parsons legacy
2. kilbeggan blade
3. state of play
4. rambling minster
of those the only one that I can pick with confidence is Parsons Legacy. I"m slightly worried about kilbeggan blades and state of plays stamina for this race. rambling minster ticks all the boxes but is a hold up horse and they tend to do badly in the national. If the jockey can keep him up with the pace then its got a great chance.
I cant have the favourites for a lot of reasons
My will and Butlers Cabin will be the first french breds for over 100 years to win if they do it. Black apalachi and southern vic have fallen at the big fences before so are unreliable choices.
I think this could be an outsiders year, so the "stick a pin and hope" brigade could be quids in this year!!
Butlers Cabin surprised many people by winning the 4 mile NH Chase at the Cheltenham Festival in 2007 and then showed this to be no fluke by following up in the Irish National four weeks later. The Irish National is traditionally a great Aintree trial and he was a very game winner of the Irish race in 2007 so because he is french bred does not put me off.
He made a very encouraging run at Cheltenham imo where he finished just over eight lengths behind Character Building in the Kim Muir. This was a marked improvement on the rest of his recent form and he looks to be peaking at just the right time for Aintree,this with that in 08 he was going along nicely when coming to grief at Bechers second time round plus he was in poor form leading into 08 ,i think he has a far better chance this year.
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Good argument for Butler"s Cabin ... one of the few I have heard for the second favourite!
Just as I had happily ruled it out!
L
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My four picks
1. Parsons legacy
2. kilbeggan blade
3. state of play
4. rambling minster
of those the only one that I can pick with confidence is Parsons Legacy. I"m slightly worried about kilbeggan blades and state of plays stamina for this race. rambling minster ticks all the boxes but is a hold up horse and they tend to do badly in the national. If the jockey can keep him up with the pace then its got a great chance.
I cant have the favourites for a lot of reasons
My will and Butlers Cabin will be the first french breds for over 100 years to win if they do it. Black apalachi and southern vic have fallen at the big fences before so are unreliable choices.
I think this could be an outsiders year, so the "stick a pin and hope" brigade could be quids in this year!!
I am going on
1. Rambling Minster
2. Parson"s Legacy
3. L"Ami
4. Irish Invader
L
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Good argument for Butler"s Cabin ... one of the few I have heard for the second favourite!
Just as I had happily ruled it out!
L
true true lol lol but i got 23 on betfair 12 weeks ago so i"m happy :) so him being favourite now is a pleasant surprise..
2009-01-04 betfair trading throughout day
23
22
23
22
21
as for value and with a good chance Darkness has my money on..ever since the 2006 Sun Alliance Chase when he finished 17lengths third to a very good horse Star De Mohaison i,ve followed his progress..there was a stamina look about him then but injury saw him mothballed for 2 and a half years but has come back this season recording a nice win at Newbury in february achieving a RPR of 156, that and Charlie Egerton has always aimed Darkness for the GN since his comeback appeals to me as this trainer went close with MELEY MOSS a few years ago so makes this irresistible for me not to back ...
his trading on betfair on that day 2009-02-28 after newbury win looked like this -
64 closing
59
54
59
54
45
47
45
41
49
54
74
69
74
79
84
89 opening
since then his price up to about week ago came into 40,s and held steady but in the last week has come in 20 points,i took 74 on him with a sneeky 25 quid on to win , i have since layed back out at 22 so its win win for me here...and if the ground is on the good side i can see his price come in a tad more to around 17 16 ish on betfair so there may still a squeak of value in him if you can get 20 22 off the highstreet bookies...
i"ll put my case for cornish sett and hear the echo later , time to walk the dogs ;D
gla in your national picks................
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I"ll happily have a 4 v 4. though I think we may pick some horses the same so it could be 2 v 2. Points system is fine
My four picks
1. Parsons legacy
2. kilbeggan blade
3. state of play
4. rambling minster
I am going on
1. Rambling Minster
2. Parson"s Legacy
3. L"Ami
4. Irish Invader
L
Looking like win win for both of us here louis
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Butlers Cabin surprised many people by winning the 4 mile NH Chase at the Cheltenham Festival in 2007 and then showed this to be no fluke by following up in the Irish National four weeks later. The Irish National is traditionally a great Aintree trial and he was a very game winner of the Irish race in 2007 so because he is french bred does not put me off.
He made a very encouraging run at Cheltenham imo where he finished just over eight lengths behind Character Building in the Kim Muir. This was a marked improvement on the rest of his recent form and he looks to be peaking at just the right time for Aintree,this with that in 08 he was going along nicely when coming to grief at Bechers second time round plus he was in poor form leading into 08 ,i think he has a far better chance this year.
If ever there is a year for the French bred "rule" to be broken, it could be this one. Same with the weights too.
gla with the National too.
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ok my thoughts for cornish sett -
i do like my national selections to of performed well at key courses or races..1 of these criteria is chepstow and the welsh national..recent winners or placed in this race are -
2002 Grand National winner Bindaree finished 3rd at Chepstow
1998 Grand National winner Earth Summit WON at Chepstow
1992 Grand National winner Party Politics finished 2nd at Chepstow
1988 Grand National winner Rhyme N Reason finished 2nd at Chepstow
also horses that have run at chepstow in the welsh in the past tends to be a good indicator that the trainer believe there horse to have sufficient stamina for the grand national..horses in recent seasons that have this form line are -
2008 Grand National winner Comply Or Die finished PU at Chepstow in 2005
2007 Grand National winner Silver Birch Won at Chepstow in 2004
2005 Grand National winner Hedgehunter finished 3rd at Chepstow in 2003
1994 Grand National winner Miinnehoma finished 3rd at Chepstow in 1992
1989 Grand National winner Little Polveir finished 8th at Chepstow in 1987
so as you see this can be a good form line to look at...Cornish Sett is a long shot , but after his wind operation it seems to of found a little bit more improvement..paul nicholls has it as his outsider of his 4 but my gut says he has a squeak ..so a little each way action is required.. ;D
On to Hear The Echo the 2008 Irish Grand National winner,,say no more even most housewives know that the irish national is a good indicator .. Since 1987, five Grand National winners have run in the Irish National and 2 have won -
2006 Numbersixvalverde
1998 BobbyJo
of the runners who have raced in the irish national and gone on to win the GN -
2001 Red Marauder 10th
2000 Papillon 2nd
1987 Maori Venture PU
so like the welsh , the fact that the trainer chooses to run there charges in the irish indicates a confidence in stamina.
The 2 horses this year that fit this form line are Hear The Echo and Butlers Cabin.....
after a crazy trading day back on the 30th of march -
17 closing
35/2
17
35/2
37/2
35/2
17
35/2
33/2
35/2
18
19
33
43
41
39
37
31
39
41
54
49
59 hmmm i think i"ll have a nibble
54
49
54
49
43
39
74 missed this price .......... :o
59
54
49
39
28
59
64
49
47
45
43
45 opening
i got on Hear the Echo,, nothing big just 20 quid to win ,, his price has settled in the 20"s area on betfair now but i expect that to come in 2 to 5 points more and then i"ll look to lay a bit off.. ;D
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This may be a pain in the ass to lay as they have closed the ante post book ... hence you will have to lump up new capital on the declared runners.
I had forgotten this ... so I may choose to lay Irish Invader but will have to stump up £1,500 for the day for the joys of doing so.
Annoying!
I have a bit of money on Hear the Echo too ...
L
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Hear the echo nearly made it onto my shortlist, even at 11st5. I scratched it when I saw it had fallen/unseated rider 5 times in its career.
good value on it though noble
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i share your concern also Rob but this season is no falls and 1 unseated rider [watched it , duff jockey lol] the trend boys luv the no falls stat but i prefer the no falls in the current season..
Also mouse morris had stated he would be aimed at this years national hence he campaigned Hear the Echo over hurdles in his first 3 races back , a little trainers trick trying to protect the horses handicap and in his last prep run at gowran in a chase he unseated the jockey so i"m not overly concerned and expect echo to be on song...
Also if you like trends 5 of the last 6 winners of the grand national ran over hurdles the season they won the national,,,the sneeky trainers protecting there horses handicap trend ;D
for me the key races to look at in the horses past form for the GN are -
the sun alliance - i look for a horse which has ran previously in its past in this,it tends to throw up potential winners,,comply or die being the last who ran in this race in 2005
the irish national
the welsh national
the topham chase
the last year race of the national should always be looked at - of the previous recent fallers in this that go on to win the next year are Slver Birch , Hedgehunter and Red Maruader .. non fallers are Amberleigh House who finished 3rd in 2003 and won in 04.....
so the no falls trend is a bit of a no no for me...just no falls in the current is ok for my picking of donkeys.. ;D
also horses that finish in the top 6 the previous national tend to have a gr8 chance of placing in the next year .. maybe some each way value there.....
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Hear the echo nearly made it onto my shortlist, even at 11st5. I scratched it when I saw it had fallen/unseated rider 5 times in its career.
good value on it though noble
could always back it on vc bet....they do money back in a free bet if your horse falls/unseats
did it last year, had one fall got a tenner back, stuck it on a 4-1 shot next day, which then won
top value imo
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good points noble1. As I said before.....great value there!!
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Ok, talking over give me one horse to win the National
0ffshore Account each way
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im on darkness, state of play and knowhere
so there are three to rule out :D
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im on darkness, state of play and knowhere
so there are three to rule out :D
good luck on those 3 - darkness has a definite shot imo ....