Non Poker Forum => Sports Betting & Discussion => Topic started by: bigredders on February 25, 2010, 14:46:01 PM
Title: Cheltenham festival
Post by: bigredders on February 25, 2010, 14:46:01 PM
It"s getting to that time of year again folks!
Any ante-post gems anyone?
My big fancy is go native for the champion hurdle, though lost a bit of value with Zaynar last week!
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: Marty719 on February 25, 2010, 14:54:22 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ANzDO9ZqppY
Has to be a massive favourite^^^^^^^^
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: bigredders on February 25, 2010, 14:59:07 PM
lol, lets just hope Go Native has his weetabix on the morning of the race!
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: Swinebag on February 25, 2010, 21:05:32 PM
quite fancy Kyber Kim in the champion Hurdle, but all the value has gone there already tbh
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: jacklevel06 on February 27, 2010, 08:24:37 AM
I"m sweet on Go Native for the champion.Every one"s been slating his wins this year,saying they were falsely run races but he has a blistering turn of pace.On decent ground with a strong gallop everything should suit imo.
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: ThinkerJE on February 28, 2010, 18:12:37 PM
The major races (apart from the Champion Hurdle) look like Nicholls/Walsh penalty kicks as I cannot see Master Minded, Big Bucks & Kauto Star getting beat (bar them falling).
Champion Hurdle is wide open, I like both Kyber Kim & Go Native but will look around for some better value.
Interesting to see how Dunguib goes in the first race of the meeting. He has looked very impressive so far but I won"t be lumping on, much better value in the place markets.
The races I really like to get stuck into from a betting point of view are the big handicaps, weights are released this week so will start formulating a plan of attack then.
Cannot wait for the festival to start, my favourite racing time of the year!!!
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: bigredders on February 28, 2010, 21:53:54 PM
The major races (apart from the Champion Hurdle) look like Nicholls/Walsh penalty kicks as I cannot see Master Minded, Big Bucks & Kauto Star getting beat (bar them falling).
Champion Hurdle is wide open, I like both Kyber Kim & Go Native but will look around for some better value.
Interesting to see how Dunguib goes in the first race of the meeting. He has looked very impressive so far but I won"t be lumping on, much better value in the place markets.
The races I really like to get stuck into from a betting point of view are the big handicaps, weights are released this week so will start formulating a plan of attack then.
Cannot wait for the festival to start, my favourite racing time of the year!!!
Agree about Dunguib, he might well win but not at that price. His poor jumping could well find him out at Cheltenham. I really like Oscar Whiskey in the supreme. It was a fairly well reguarded horse he beat in his last race. Giving him 6 pound, he couldn"t have done it any easier. At 12"s in most places well worth an ew bet.
Will look forward to listening to your views on the handicaps james, they are races that i struggle with at the festival. :)
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: bigredders on March 01, 2010, 13:24:05 PM
The major races (apart from the Champion Hurdle) look like Nicholls/Walsh penalty kicks as I cannot see Master Minded, Big Bucks & Kauto Star getting beat (bar them falling).
Champion Hurdle is wide open, I like both Kyber Kim & Go Native but will look around for some better value.
Interesting to see how Dunguib goes in the first race of the meeting. He has looked very impressive so far but I won"t be lumping on, much better value in the place markets.
The races I really like to get stuck into from a betting point of view are the big handicaps, weights are released this week so will start formulating a plan of attack then.
Cannot wait for the festival to start, my favourite racing time of the year!!!
Agree about Dunguib, he might well win but not at that price. His poor jumping could well find him out at Cheltenham. I really like Oscar Whiskey in the supreme. It was a fairly well reguarded horse he beat in his last race. Giving him 6 pound, he couldn"t have done it any easier. At 12"s in most places well worth an ew bet.
Will look forward to listening to your views on the handicaps james, they are races that i struggle with at the festival. :)
For any that are interested, Paddy power are doing a money back special if Dunguib wins. Quite unbelievable value!
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: ThinkerJE on March 01, 2010, 19:07:26 PM
They did the same last year with Cousin Vinny and got him beat. Still an amazing offer if Dunguib turns out to be as good as he has promised so far.
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: ThinkerJE on March 01, 2010, 19:10:01 PM
Interesting that they are also 3/1 (with a run) Dunguib for the Champion Hurdle, perhaps they know something...
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: bigredders on March 01, 2010, 20:04:46 PM
Interesting that they are also 3/1 (with a run) Dunguib for the Champion Hurdle, perhaps they know something...
I have noticed that in a few other places too. Surely not....
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: noble1 on March 13, 2010, 19:35:55 PM
i"ve backed 2 in the champion hurdle - Celestial Halo and Punjabi ... for the supreme Menorah [only a dabble] .... william hill - Razor Royale [liked his run back in November] and A New Story e/w in the cross country...
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: monkeyman on March 13, 2010, 21:48:53 PM
For the first time for several years I"m not going, but I"m off work every day of the festival and will be glued to the TV every day of Cheltenham. My observations for day one are as follows:
1) Supreme novices hurdle. Dunguib is a worthy favourite, but taking into consideration that he is far from fluid over his hurdles, he is completely unbackable at his current price. I fancy Get Me Out Of here at 6-1 who has at least proved his credentials in a big field against more experienced opponents. 2) Arkle Chase. Probably the most competitive renewal of this event in the years I"ve been following racing. I"ll be backing Somersby who finished 3rd in last year"s Supreme Novices Hurdle and I think looks even better over fences. After winning the Arkle, I expect him to step up in trip and give kauto Star something to think about in the next King George. 3) William Hill Handicap Chase. David Pipe"s The Package has attracted a stack of money this week and seems to tick all the right boxes. If Our Vic runs, I think he represents great value at the current 25-1 and I"ll also be keeping an eye on Palypso De Creek who I"ve backed for the Grand National at 100-1 4) Champion Hurdle. Again a very open renewal with at least 10 horses in with a genuine chance. Current favourite Go Native has the most bombproof form and at 7-2 I feel is a very reasonable price. However, he is far from unbeatable and there is value elsewhere. I raved about Starluck before last year"s Triumph Hurdle and after cruising to the last, he folded rather tamely to finish 4th. However, the Triumph Hurdle is run on a different course to the Championship and the average race time is several seconds longer. With that and the fact that the ground is likely to be a little bit quicker than last year, I think that Starluck being the quickest horse in the field on the flat will be there or there abouts. I also expect Celestial Halo to be involved. He was also a very high class flat horse (7th in the St leger) with a good record at the festival (won a Triumph Hurdle, 2nd in last year"s champion) and probably won"t have too much competition for the lead. His last run was poor, but he will be wearing blinkers for the first time, so I will be amazed if he isn"t involved in the finish. 5) Cross Country Chase. On the whole it is madness to back anything not trained by Enda Bolger whose entire year seems to revolve around this race and the 2 cross country events at the Punchestown festival. This year I would be very interested in Monkerhostin if he takes part. He is very versatile having won a Tote Gold Trophy over hurdles at 2 miles and several decent races over fences at 3 miles. Last time out, he defied his 13 years to win again and at the current 14-1 is well worth a look
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: bigredders on March 14, 2010, 12:59:04 PM
For the first time for several years I"m not going, but I"m off work every day of the festival and will be glued to the TV every day of Cheltenham. My observations for day one are as follows:
1) Supreme novices hurdle. Dunguib is a worthy favourite, but taking into consideration that he is far from fluid over his hurdles, he is completely unbackable at his current price. I fancy Can"t Buy Time at 6-1 who has at least proved his credentials in a big field against more experienced opponents. 2) Arkle Chase. Probably the most competitive renewal of this event in the years I"ve been following racing. I"ll be backing Somersby who finished 3rd in last year"s Supreme Novices Hurdle and I think looks even better over fences. After winning the Arkle, I expect him to step up in trip and give kauto Star something to think about in the next King George. 3) William Hill Handicap Chase. David Pipe"s The Package has attracted a stack of money this week and seems to tick all the right boxes. If Our Vic runs, I think he represents great value at the current 25-1 and I"ll also be keeping an eye on Palypso De Creek who I"ve backed for the Grand National at 100-1 4) Champion Hurdle. Again a very open renewal with at least 10 horses in with a genuine chance. Current favourite Go Native has the most bombproof form and at 7-2 I feel is a very reasonable price. However, he is far from unbeatable and there is value elsewhere. I raved about Starluck before last year"s Triumph Hurdle and after cruising to the last, he folded rather tamely to finish 4th. However, the Triumph Hurdle is run on a different course to the Championship and the average race time is several seconds longer. With that and the fact that the ground is likely to be a little bit quicker than last year, I think that Starluck being the quickest horse in the field on the flat will be there or there abouts. I also expect Celestial Halo to be involved. He was also a very high class flat horse (7th in the St leger) with a good record at the festival (won a Triumph Hurdle, 2nd in last year"s champion) and probably won"t have too much competition for the lead. His last run was poor, but he will be wearing blinkers for the first time, so I will be amazed if he isn"t involved in the finish. 5) Cross Country Chase. On the whole it is madness to back anything not trained by Enda Bolger whose entire year seems to revolve around this race and the 2 cross country events at the Punchestown festival. This year I would be very interested in Monkerhostin if he takes part. He is very versatile having won a Tote Gold Trophy over hurdles at 2 miles and several decent races over fences at 3 miles. Last time out, he defied his 13 years to win again and at the current 14-1 is well worth a look
Good points....
I have also had a saver on Starluck for the champion, if he were from a big stable he would be half the price. Also backed somersby for the arkle.
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: monkeyman on March 14, 2010, 13:18:37 PM
Did anyone spot my deliberate (ish) mistake?. Can"t Buy Time is a chaser who ran in the last Grand National and will not be running in a novice hurdle at Cheltenham. I actually meant to recommend Get Me Out Of Here who has the same owner. Doh! Schoolboy error
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: monkeyman on March 14, 2010, 14:04:12 PM
The more I look at it, the more the Champion Hurdle gives me a headache. The only horse declared who can safely be ruled out is Raise Your Heart who will probably be beaten 50-60 lengths. Jumbo Rio is far from the worst 100-1 shot I"ve ever seen. He"d have won a french Grade 1 hurdle in November had it not been for the jockey making a pig"s ear of things on the run in. Apart from that, he"s been running against all the best horses in Ireland and has never been beaten far over there. The main inponderable when assessing his form is that he won"t have run in a race run at the pace of the Champion Hurdle and he certainly won"t have run on ground like he is going to encounter on tuesday, but I see these as reasons why he might possibly show improved form. He raced mainly at 10-12 furlongs on the flat and in most of his race reports there is a comment about him running on strongly at the end of the race. In last year"s Triumph Hurdle he was prominent most of the way, led 2 out then faded on the run in. However, in his next run he won the equivalent race at the Punchestown festival, this time by being held-up way off the pace. In this year"s Champion there are more hold-up horses than those who are likely to force the pace (Celestial Halo,Zaynar) which could potentially lead to traffic problems even in a relatively small field. However, as there is not much between most of the runners, it may be worth risking a small interest on a consistent young horse who demonstrated his best form coming from off the pace in a championship race and will for the first time be able to try these tactics in a lightning quick race on good ground. Might be worth a couple of quid on value grounds alone.
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: monkeyman on March 14, 2010, 18:16:49 PM
I"ve just paid a visit to my local Laddies and have placed a five horse each way multiple which covers every combination of trebles and upwards. The five selections are:
1) Somersby in the Arkle Chase at 9-2. Only 1.5 lengths behind Go Native in last year"s Supreme Novices Hurdle, the best jumper of a fence in the race and with proven graded chase form in the book I think he"ll win and won"t hear of him being out of the first 3. 2) Tell Massini in the Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle at 4-1. 3 out of 3 over hurdles including 2 graded wins around Cheltenham, one over 3 miles. There are likely to be horses who perhaps haven"t got the same form under their belts, Willie Mullins" Enterprise Park springs to mind, who show apparently improved form trying 3 miles for the first time, but Tell Massini is a worthy favourite and I"d be surprised if he wasn"t at least placed. 3)Peddlers Cross in the Neptune Investment Novice hurdle at 8-1. Both starts over hurdles were at 2 miles and both were won convincingly, the second a grade 2 at Haydock by 16 lengths. Is likely to run in this race rather than against Dunguib in the Supreme Novices hurdle, but as a point to point winner, I don"t expect the step up in trip to be a problem. Even if I"ve guessed his intended target wrong, I"ve got non-runner no bet on all selections, so I think I"ve got a very reasonable price. 4) Sericina in the Foxhunters chase at 10-1. Multiple point to point winner who won her only start under rules by 7 lengths. Will be trained by Paul Nicholls after this race whatever the result and for that reason alone I think the double figure price represents very good value. 5) Deep Purple in the Ryanair chase at 20-1. Two high quality runs earlier in the season over 2.5 and 3 miles and was then pulled up because of bleeding in the King George. Still not 100% if he"ll run, but the non-runner no bet concession means that if he does line up, I believe I"ll have a huge price about the best horse in the race.
Narrowly missing the cut for the bet was a horse in the champion bumper, but I"ll come back to that one later in the week.
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: smileriraq on March 14, 2010, 19:28:14 PM
cheers guys im going this thursday with some freinds and family but know nothing about horse racing so this thread is invaluable
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: monkeyman on March 14, 2010, 23:36:56 PM
cheers guys im going this thursday with some freinds and family but know nothing about horse racing so this thread is invaluable
From a punting perspective I think thursday is the most difficult day of the lot, but I"ll try and work my way through the form on the Racing Post website on wednesday night and post my opinions on here so you"ve got a few horses names to work with. Don"t go making any big spending plans on the basis of my tips. If I was that good, I wouldn"t be working in a call centre!
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: smileriraq on March 15, 2010, 11:47:11 AM
cheers fella muchos appreciated
tbh im going for the experience of it ive set aside money to put on the Gee Gees so if i lose it all fine if i win then my son can have food for the rest of the month (no pressure :) )
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: jacklevel06 on March 15, 2010, 14:44:57 PM
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: ThinkerJE on March 15, 2010, 17:05:25 PM
Homework started for day 1 tomorrow, think it will be a quiet day from a punting point of view with only the 1 handicap (X country does not count) to get stuck into. Selections (for what they are worth) to follow, cannot wait till tapes up at 1.30pm, the best racing week of the year!!!
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: Swinebag on March 15, 2010, 21:58:14 PM
well I"ve gone for.....
1.30 - no selection. this will be my best result in this race for 8 years 2.05 - riverside theatre 2.40 - the package 3.20 - kyber kim 4.00 - garde champetre 4.40 - no selection
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: janc on March 15, 2010, 22:05:35 PM
so pi$$ed off that I"m at work and cant get the time off gl guys
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: ThinkerJE on March 15, 2010, 22:15:09 PM
Wow day 1 is tough and as such I will be keeping stakes low and looking for some bigger prices to be placed.
Supreme Novice Hurdle Dunguib is obviously very talented but can"t be backed at that price (and he"s on the drift), with his jumping to be tested and a massive field. So I have gone for BLACKSTAIRMOUNTAIN for Mullins & Walsh with big runs expected from his other runner FLAT OUT and from Henderson"s OSCAR WHISKY. Will probably bet with Paddy Power just in case Dunguib is the real deal as the bet will be refunded.
Arkle Trophy This event is wide open. Cases can be made for 6 or 7 of the runners but I have bokked the Mullins/Walsh partnership again with SPORT LINE. It has a nice profile and could be very classy. I also think Nicholls might get a big run out of WOOLCOMBE FOLLY (in the news after the accident with Sam Thomas), but this will be a small stakes affair.
William Hill Trophy Finally a top handicap to get stuck into and there are some very good trends in this race. The profile is a 7 or 8 year old, carrying less than 11st that finished in the top 3 last time out. The other factor is to avoid the favourite (only 1 winner in the last 10 years), but the sp must be 7/1 or less. So I cannot be sure of my final choice until post time but BENSALEM fits the profile well (hopefully he does not start favourite then I can lump on), others to consider are THEATRICAL MOMENT & OGEE, I think the winner will be one of those three. For place purpose the higher weights come back into it and I like RAZOR ROYALE & EXMOOR RANGER. This will surely be the big betting race of a quiet punting day.
Champion Hurdle Like the Arkle this is also wide open with 7 or 8 potential winners and little to choose between them. Therefore stakes will be low again and i will plump for PUNJABI to defend his crown. For place purposes at big prices i like WON IN THE DARK & JUMBO RIO. This could go down to the wire with 5 or 6 still in contention at the last hurdle.
Cross Country Chase This should be renamed the Edna Bolger Race and I think GARDE CHAMPETRE will win for the 3rd year running, loves the track, plenty of class, will leave it late but the amazing Nina Carberry will get him home. Place spots can got to ANOTHER JEWEL (not trained by Bolger but did win the Punchestown trial at the end of January) & FRENEY"S WELL (although I would not put you off DROMBEAG or HEADS ONTHE GROUND either). Can decide whether to bet big in this, may depend on how things have gone so far in the day (one of the races I am more confident about).
Mares Hurdle I am a trends man and so will struggle as there has only been 2 previous runnings of this race. Both have been won by 5 year olds; so I am sticking with them and keeping stakes very low. So lets hope STRAVINSKY DANCE, NO ONE TELLS ME or PEPITE DE SOLEIL can do the business.
A quiet start to the festival with the majority of the bankroll saved for the bigger handicaps still to come. A few winners would be nice to get things going though...
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: ThinkerJE on March 15, 2010, 22:18:57 PM
1.30 - no selection. this will be my best result in this race for 8 years
BETFRED are refunding all losing bets in this race Rob, so it will still be your best result and you are on a freeroll!!!
2.05 - riverside theatre 2.40 - the package 3.20 - kyber kim 4.00 - garde champetre 4.40 - no selection
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: monkeyman on March 15, 2010, 22:34:42 PM
Here we go. For the first time this, week below is a complete run down of my thoughts for the Cheltenham racing to follow .I make no claims to being the world"s greatest punter, but at least you"ll see more sense in this post than you"ll hear through John McCrirrick"s entire career. If nothing else, it will give you plenty of ammunition if you feel like putting any abusive messages on my blog.
1.30. Supreme Novices Hurdle. Despite the numbers, this isn"t the most competitive race of the festival and can be narrowed down to 2 horses. Dunguib wouldn"t surprise me if he won by 10 lengths, but there are sufficient doubts about him to rule out backing him at his current price. Paddy Power"s offer to return all losing singles on other horses if Dunguib wins makes this a no-brainer; back Get Me Out of Here with Paddy Power. Easy really.
2.05. Arkle Chase. Somersby got very close to Go Native in last year"s Supreme Novices Hurdle and has been very impressive over fences this year. 4-1 may not represent huge value, but I think he"s the best horse in the race so I"m looking no further. If you fancy something a little more fruity, try Mad Max at 25-1. An absolutely immense horse, he was always going to be better over fences than hurdles and he was pretty good at that. His first attempt over the larger obstacles was at Kempton, which I don"t think would have been his ideal course, and resulted in a victory. His second race was in a grade 2 at Doncaster when he finished 3rd. The winner was Woolcombe Folly (also 25-1 in this race), a 147 rated hurdler who was carrying 7 lbs less. Mad Max was only beaten by 4 lengths, so bearing the weight concession in mind, he emerges as the best performer from that race.
2.40. William Hill Handicap Chase. On the face of it a very competitive race. This normally goes to a horse carrying less than 11st and The Package has been the subject of substantial backing, but The Tother One is weighted to reverse the form of their meeting here in December. Bensalem has also proved popular, but his jumping has been suspect and I"d be concerned about backing him at 4 times his current price. I like the look of Ogee. Winner of 3 of his 4 chases, his only defeat came in the Grade 1 Feltham Novices chase at Kempton over christmas. Crucially, his hurdle rating was 143 and he is racing here off 137, so he could be well treated, although he will have the additional burden of my money.
3.20. Champion Hurdle. Ultra competitive and I won"t decide who to back until I"ve seen the prices just before the off. I may be tempted by Jumbo Rio if he can still be backed at a treble-figure price, but at 9-2 favourite Go Native has started to look like value.
4.00. Cross Country Chase. Garde Champetre is the best horse in this race and has the best rider of this course in Nina Carberry. However, 16-1 about such a classy, versatile horse as Monkerhostin is too big and I will be very tempted.
4.40 David Nicholson Mares Hurdle. Voler La Vedette is the best horse in the race and I see no reason to look any further even at 7-4. Simplez
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: janc on March 15, 2010, 22:59:56 PM
Just to make it interesting punjabi 8/1 on betfair and a small ew on double dizzy in the cross country 40/1 and 5.5/1 the place
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: Ant1966 on March 15, 2010, 23:24:11 PM
1.30 Get me out of here. 2.05 Somersby 2.40 The package 3.20 Punjabi
Not going to get you rich and i hate backing short price horses at the festival,but these are my boks for 2mor.
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: bigredders on March 15, 2010, 23:30:17 PM
Tuesday"s thoughts and bets.... Can"t wait!
Supreme - I have raving about Oscar Whisky since winning his last race, giving 6lb to a decently regarded horse and not even breaking into a sweat. I think he is the value against Dunguib, which will probably win, but with Paddy Power going money back if he does could just never back it, esp at those odds in such a competitive field. Could not have Menorah on my mind after being beaten by Lush Life, stablemate of Oscar Whisky. Look out for Dan Breen at a big price.
Arkle - After much consideration and mind changing i think that Somersby won"t win tommorow. I just think that the trip is too short. This horse will win a gold cup in time. I have also decided that it is such an open race. Captain Cee Bee is a strong favourite (still regretting not backing this last year!) and for that reason Sizing Europe is discarded (i feel that ccb had the beating in their last match up before his fall) i like the look of Riverside Theatre and looks a real jumper in the making. I think that at small small stakes this is my selection but not at all confident. Look out for Mad Max and Kangaroo Court at big prices.
Will Hill Chase - Although Benselem has claims and you have to fear The Package just because it is a Pipe horse i think Character Building has a big chance. He seems to fit all the trends for the race and is a couple of points bigger in the betting than he should be because of a slightly unfashionable Northern stable. Although it goes against all the trends i think a couple of quid E/W on Joe Lively could give you a good run. He absolutely loves running at Cheltenham and has some impressive form there.
Champion Hurdle - The more i look at the race, the more open it becomes. If Go Native was an E/W price i would be steaming in, but i am very wary of betting on the nose in such an open race as this. Having had Celestial Halo as my best bet last year (that still hurts!) i think he has a chance in this. You can"t discount Punjabi as they think he is a Spring horse. Twiston Davies is very bullish on the chances of Kyber Kim and woulding discount Solwhit either. The two i wouldn"t be backing are the 2 Henderson horses. Binocular for obvious reasons and Zaynar because i think he is more of a stayer. After all that i am going for Starluck E/W. Another that is a bigger price because of an unfashionable stable, he has the class, the speed and the jockey. I just hope he doesn"t get outstayed!
X country - Garde Champetre. Best jockey, best course form, best horse. Weight doesn"t really matter in these kind of races. That is all! ;D
David Nicholson - Two horse race in my opinion. Although i respect Voler La Vedette i think Quevega will win this well. I don"t think Mullins would send this over if she wasn"t A1, therefore she is a confident choice.
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: jacklevel06 on March 16, 2010, 09:40:10 AM
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: ThinkerJE on March 16, 2010, 13:28:50 PM
Here we go...
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: ThinkerJE on March 16, 2010, 13:35:41 PM
Dunguib gets beat, BIG SHOCK IN THE FIRST
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: noble1 on March 16, 2010, 13:35:51 PM
i"ve backed 2 in the champion hurdle - Celestial Halo and Punjabi ... for the supreme Menorah [only a dabble] .... william hill - Razor Royale [liked his run back in November] and A New Story e/w in the cross country...
1st one in :)
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: noble1 on March 16, 2010, 13:57:02 PM
didnt do the arkle , but if the ground is softer than reported then Riverside theatre has ew claims , if run at a decent clip i wont be surprised to see Woolcombe Folly cause a shock [longshot based on his 2008 form]...
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: janc on March 16, 2010, 13:58:08 PM
i"ve backed 2 in the champion hurdle - Celestial Halo and Punjabi ... for the supreme Menorah [only a dabble] .... william hill - Razor Royale [liked his run back in November] and A New Story e/w in the cross country...
1st one in :)
nice start
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: ThinkerJE on March 16, 2010, 13:59:30 PM
didnt do the arkle , but if the ground is softer than reported then Riverside theatre has ew claims , if run at a decent clip i wont be surprised to see Woolcombe Folly cause a shock [longshot based on his 2008 form]...
I like Woolcombe Folly too at a big price in a wide open race, think Sports Line will go close too
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: noble1 on March 16, 2010, 14:12:42 PM
glad i didnt do the arkle :)
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: ThinkerJE on March 16, 2010, 14:29:35 PM
I hope Bensalem does not go off favourite in the next as they have a very bad record
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: noble1 on March 16, 2010, 14:46:30 PM
been looking over tomorrows card [Wednesday] and nothing springs out in the early races so i"ve just backed Wishfull Thinking and Mamlook for the Coral Cup..The only ones i could see any value in tbh...
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: ThinkerJE on March 16, 2010, 14:48:55 PM
Bensalem falls when cruising, DAMM!!!
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: jon_garrett on March 16, 2010, 15:02:17 PM
And a good job it did too as it was cruising (and I was on Chief Dan George and the Forecast of CDG with The Package ;D )
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: ThinkerJE on March 16, 2010, 15:17:13 PM
i"ve backed 2 in the champion hurdle - Celestial Halo and Punjabi ... for the supreme Menorah [only a dabble] .... william hill - Razor Royale [liked his run back in November] and A New Story e/w in the cross country...
william hill and the champion were blanks , but menorah and A new story win [got 16s and 33s] so pays for the losers i met get in the next 3days lol..
good luck everyone in the next 3 days...
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: bigredders on March 16, 2010, 19:14:53 PM
One word..... OUCH!
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: Ant1966 on March 16, 2010, 21:37:27 PM
A few jockeys i"d like a quiet word with after 3 seconds today......grrrr.
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: Swinebag on March 16, 2010, 22:17:16 PM
an ROI of -100% today
selections for tomorrow
1.30 synchronised 2.05 quel esprit 2.40 punchestowns 3.20 well chief (EW) 4.00 wishful thinking (EW) 4.40 notus de la tour 5.15 elegant concorde
come on!!
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: noble1 on March 16, 2010, 23:14:35 PM
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: monkeyman on March 16, 2010, 23:41:55 PM
Not a great start to the week"s fun. 6 races, 6 bets, sod all in return. In order, my selections came 2nd,2nd,3rd,5th,5th and 3rd. Ho hum, here"s tomorrow"s lame donkeys:
1) 1.30 National Hunt Chase. I"ll start with Presenting Forever who"s first run over fences (3miles 3 furlongs at Sedgefield) resulted in a 52 length victory which he then followed with a 2nd to subsequent winner Wogan. Also has the assistance of one of the better jockeys in Ollie Greenall so at 16-1 looks well worth a shot
2) Neptune Investment Novices Hurdle. Discussed in one of my previous posts - Peddler"s Cross for me in this one.
3) RSA Chase. I"m not convinced by the jumping of main market rivals Long Run and Diamond Harry, so I"ll stick with Punchestowns
4)Queen Mother Champion Chase. The only question here is how far Master Minded will win by. Even at slightly odds-on I think he represents value
5) Coral Cup. Ouch, I think my brain hurts trying to think my way around this one. I"ll probably go for Silverhand at 33-1. Silverhand is rated 102 on the flat and finished his season on the level by following a second place in the Irish Cesarewitch with victory in a listed race. As his only previous start over 2 and a half miles over hurdles was on heavy ground and he improved through the flat season, he is potentially unexposed
6)Another nightmare race to assess. I"ll plump for Bothy who has won 3 from 3 over hurdles, all by relatively narrow margins, so could be difficult for the handicapper to assess accurately
7) Champion Bumper. In previous years I"ve profitably employed a system which involved backing the biggest-priced of Willie Mullins" entrants. This year I"m trying something a bit different. Al Ferof won an Irish point-to-point then ran in 2 bumpers winning the second. Paul Nicholls then acquired him before he went on to win the most competitive bumper this side of the Irish Sea all year apart from the Champion. What I think is particularly significant is that presumably Ruby Walsh could have elected to ride one of Willie Mullins" contenders but he has chosen to ride Al Ferof.
No winners from that lot and I"ll probably hide in a cave for the final 2 days of the festival.
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: jacklevel06 on March 17, 2010, 10:08:16 AM
Got wiped out yesterday. Todays fancies. 1.30 Massasoit,Synchronised 2.05 Peddlers Cross 2.40 Punchestown 3.20 khalahari king 4.00 Spirit River,Naiad Du Misselot 4.40 Hunterview,stormy Weather 5.15 Shot from the hip ,Drumbaloo
Good luck all.
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: ThinkerJE on March 17, 2010, 12:36:42 PM
Terrible day yesterday, hoping for better today.
1.30 Poker De Sivola; Pennek 2.05 Quel Esprit; Ghizao 2.40 Citizen Vic; Knockara Beau 3.20 Master Minded; Well Chief 4.00 Sir Harry Ormesher; Hampshire Express 4.40 Bothy; Fin Vin De Leu 5.15 Day Of A Lifetime; Bishopsfurze
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: noble1 on March 17, 2010, 13:39:41 PM
2.05 - Ainama , Trenchant [to big of a price imo] 2.40 - Voy Por Ustedes [far to big of a price] 4.00 - Sunnyhillboy 4.40 - Boychuk
good luck all......
on your head be it
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: Swinebag on March 17, 2010, 21:50:04 PM
errrr....after 2 days my ROI is still -100%
have gone for a load of small EW chances tomorrow and one bigger punt in the 2.40
selections
1.30 tanks for that (EW) 2.05ainmar + dont push it (EW) 2.40 poquelain - (sounds liker poker!!) 3.20 4.00 great endeavour (EW) 4.40 burren legend (EW) - lost my marbles here!!
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: monkeyman on March 17, 2010, 22:17:04 PM
A little bit better than tuesday, backing Peddler"s Cross at 7-1 at least put me marginally ahead on the day. Today"s finishing positions 8th,1st,5th,4th,9th,7th,2nd. Here goes nothing:
1.30 Jewson Novices Chase - Nicanor beat Denman over hurdles at the festival in 2006 and since then, has spent a lot of time injured. He got off the mark over fences at the sixth attempt on his last run and has been mixing it with some of Ireland"s best novices this season. His handicap mark of 140 looks very reasonable as does his current price of 14-1.
2.05 Pertemps Hurdle Final. Favourite Alfie Sherrin is terrible value at 3-1 for a race this competitive. Palypso De Creek has only had 3 runs in this country, 2 of which have been over fences. He definitely stays the trip and could potentially be unexposed and I"m very,very tempted by the 33-1 on offer
2.40 Ryanair Chase. This will be taken by an outsider. Deep Purple"s jumping is sound and I think he has the most solid form this season of any horse in the field. Jack The Giant has had his injury problems but is very consistent when he does visit the racecourse. Although he has been absent for ages, I can"t believe that Nicky Henderson would run a horse in this who wasn"t 100% fit and 33-1 is way too big
3.20 World Hurdle. May well sit this one out, but again I"m tempted by something at a big price. As a former Cheltenham Gold Cup Winner War Of Attrition is one of the few in the field with the raw ability to trouble Big Buck"s. As well as his most prestigious win, he was once a very close second to Brave Inca in a Supreme Novices Hurdle. His last 2 runs have resulted in grade 2 hurdle victories and may be worth a speculative flutter at 33-1.
4.00 Byrne Group Plate. Unless something leaps off the page at me when I read the Racing Post tommorow, I could have another speculative punt here, this time at 40-1 on Mr Mcgoldrick who has the distinction of finishing in the money at huge prices at 2 previous festivals
4.40 Kim Muir Challenge Cup. Call me lazy, but frankly I can"t be bothered to pull apart the form for a 24 runner handicap chase for amateur riders. Therefore, I"ll side with Nostringsattached who is consistent and in J T McNamara has one of the better jockeys in this
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: noble1 on March 18, 2010, 00:07:51 AM
have gone for a load of small EW chances tomorrow and one bigger punt in the 2.40
selections
1.30 tanks for that (EW) 2.05ainmar + dont push it (EW) 2.40 poquelain - (sounds liker poker!!) 3.20 4.00 great endeavour (EW) 4.40 burren legend (EW) - lost my marbles here!!
A little bit better than tuesday, backing Peddler"s Cross at 7-1 at least put me marginally ahead on the day. Today"s finishing positions 8th,1st,5th,4th,9th,7th,2nd. Here goes nothing:
1.30 Jewson Novices Chase - Nicanor beat Denman over hurdles at the festival in 2006 and since then, has spent a lot of time injured. He got off the mark over fences at the sixth attempt on his last run and has been mixing it with some of Ireland"s best novices this season. His handicap mark of 140 looks very reasonable as does his current price of 14-1.
2.05 Pertemps Hurdle Final. Favourite Alfie Sherrin is terrible value at 3-1 for a race this competitive. Palypso De Creek has only had 3 runs in this country, 2 of which have been over fences. He definitely stays the trip and could potentially be unexposed and I"m very,very tempted by the 33-1 on offer
2.40 Ryanair Chase. This will be taken by an outsider. Deep Purple"s jumping is sound and I think he has the most solid form this season of any horse in the field. Jack The Giant has had his injury problems but is very consistent when he does visit the racecourse. Although he has been absent for ages, I can"t believe that Nicky Henderson would run a horse in this who wasn"t 100% fit and 33-1 is way too big
3.20 World Hurdle. May well sit this one out, but again I"m tempted by something at a big price. As a former Cheltenham Gold Cup Winner War Of Attrition is one of the few in the field with the raw ability to trouble Big Buck"s. As well as his most prestigious win, he was once a very close second to Brave Inca in a Supreme Novices Hurdle. His last 2 runs have resulted in grade 2 hurdle victories and may be worth a speculative flutter at 33-1.
4.00 Byrne Group Plate. Unless something leaps off the page at me when I read the Racing Post tommorow, I could have another speculative punt here, this time at 40-1 on Mr Mcgoldrick who has the distinction of finishing in the money at huge prices at 2 previous festivals
4.40 Kim Muir Challenge Cup. Call me lazy, but frankly I can"t be bothered to pull apart the form for a 24 runner handicap chase for amateur riders. Therefore, I"ll side with Nostringsattached who is consistent and in J T McNamara has one of the better jockeys in this
11/1 place on betfair mr mcgoldrick
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: noble1 on March 18, 2010, 18:05:10 PM
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: monkeyman on March 18, 2010, 20:15:38 PM
I"m off to Fakenham tomorrow, so I ain"t going to bother analysing every race at Cheltenham in too much depth. My thoughts are as follows:
1.30 Triumph Hurdle. Pittoni was subject to an injury scare recently, so I"ll take it on trust that he is fit. I think he"s the strongest of the Irish contingent and his defeat last time can be ignored as it was against older horses on heavy going
2.05 County Hurdle. Inventor was a classy flat horse, has won 2 of his 3 starts over hurdles (the defeat was a 4th behind Supreme Novices winner Menorah) and is therefore open to considerable improvement. 28-1 at the moment looks very generous
2.40 Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle. Tell Massini is undefeated, the form is rock-solid and he won"t get beaten here.
3.20 Gold Cup. Kauto Star
4.00 Foxhunters Chase. Sericina will take this before Paul Nicholls takes over her training.
4.40 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle. FFS, how is anyone supposed to pick the winner of this? can"t be bothered.
5.15 Grand Annual Chase. You"re The Top.
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: Swinebag on March 18, 2010, 21:17:14 PM
have gone for a load of small EW chances tomorrow and one bigger punt in the 2.40
selections
1.30 tanks for that (EW) 2.05ainmar + dont push it (EW) 2.40 poquelain - (sounds liker poker!!) 3.20 4.00 great endeavour (EW) 4.40 burren legend (EW) - lost my marbles here!!
woop woop
finally a winner (and at 25-1 on BSQ as well) giving me a winning day and sending my ROI flying up to -62%
friday"s boks to follow
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: Swinebag on March 18, 2010, 22:05:04 PM
Surely Denman is great value at 5/1 or am i missing something here?
Not missing anything. 5-1 is too big
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: jacklevel06 on March 19, 2010, 12:04:09 PM
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: Laxie on March 19, 2010, 12:17:12 PM
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: ThinkerJE on March 19, 2010, 13:18:17 PM
Need some winners today;
1.30 Soldatino; Gilded Age 2.05 Tito Bustillo; Oldrik 2.40 Tell Massini; Premier Victory 3.20 Kauto Star; Cooldine 4.00 Bob Hall; Turthen 4.40 Fairyland; Clova Island 5.15 You"re The Top; Pepsyrock
Good luck all.
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: noble1 on March 19, 2010, 13:22:31 PM
watching Ch4 obv and tanya must be bozzed eyed reporting a money market move on Barwell Bridge, all i"m seeing is real sustained betting on Barizan and Olofi so interesting to see if the move pays off in the Triumph Hurdle..Carlito Brigante is getting good support though...
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: Laxie on March 19, 2010, 13:31:13 PM
13:30 Rupestrian e/w Barizan e/w 14:05 Eradicate e/w 15:20 My Will (without the other two) e/w 16:00 Bob Hall e/w 17:15 Pepsyrock e/w
Will probably toss a few on a couple of random greys as the day goes on too.
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: noble1 on March 19, 2010, 13:36:10 PM
Barizan ran well just wish he had got the fence to come up the hill,ahhh well profit secured for the day :)
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: noble1 on March 19, 2010, 13:37:37 PM
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: Laxie on March 19, 2010, 13:39:22 PM
He was sooooooooo far in front. Sigh. That last fence was a killer for him, but a place is a cash for us. :D
Well done picking the winner!
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: noble1 on March 19, 2010, 13:54:40 PM
i"ll have a holiday somewhere tropical if santas son places lol , currently trading in the 400"s on the exchanges.. :-X
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: noble1 on March 19, 2010, 14:13:35 PM
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: Laxie on March 19, 2010, 14:18:21 PM
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: noble1 on March 19, 2010, 14:26:20 PM
betting market is so quiet for the Albert Bartlett , only Tell Massini getting any sort of sustained money on , cannot fancy it myself at those skinny prices..
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: Chipaccrual on March 19, 2010, 14:48:54 PM
Wiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii
Najaf to place at 10/1. Finally, finally. I get PAID. ;D
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: janc on March 19, 2010, 15:05:03 PM
Denman to pay back all losses for this week .(fingers crossed) got 6.2 on betfair this morning :)
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: Laxie on March 19, 2010, 15:30:19 PM
What a great race to watch!!! Glad I didn"t have a fortune thrown on this one. Had a feeling it wouldn"t turn out as obvious as everyone was saying.
Title: Re: Cheltenham festival
Post by: Swinebag on March 19, 2010, 15:56:10 PM