Author Topic: If Carlsberg did dull poker blogs, they'd do this one  (Read 225130 times)

0 Members and 7 Guests are viewing this topic.

Swinebag

  • Staker Licensed Player
  • Platinum Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4033
Re: Am I a fish or what?
« Reply #240 on: September 09, 2008, 07:38:59 AM »
UL simon. If I"d have run AQ into AK, I"d have sucked out.......Its my speciality!! ;D
Quote from: Chipaccrual
Rob, you are a genius.
Quote from: jacklevel06
You are a genius Rob  :D

monkeyman

  • Platinum Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 1352
Re: Am I a fish or what?
« Reply #241 on: September 10, 2008, 19:06:57 PM »
tonight is my farewell to season two and if I had to nominate the conditions for any tournament I"d like to have a crack at, 6 handed stud with a decent chipstack would probably be what I"d come up with. I think I"ve got the space for another gold medal...........  
Currently tearing the Ipoker anonymous tables a new one

monkeyman

  • Platinum Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 1352
Re: Am I a fish or what?
« Reply #242 on: September 10, 2008, 21:02:30 PM »
One player out, looks like I"m next on the list as I"m already down to 1909. Blue Square really hates me :"(
Currently tearing the Ipoker anonymous tables a new one

monkeyman

  • Platinum Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 1352
Re: Am I a fish or what?
« Reply #243 on: September 10, 2008, 21:52:22 PM »
I survived a bit longer than I thought and apart from one hand I played badly, I was dealt utterly wretched cards from start to finish. Season three has got to be better than season two ended.
Currently tearing the Ipoker anonymous tables a new one

ibis

  • New Member
  • *
  • Posts: 20
Re: Am I a fish or what?
« Reply #244 on: September 11, 2008, 13:01:35 PM »

 It could be argued that I was unlucky to run AQ into AK, but I think this hand illustrates the difference between the thinking of a recreational player compared to how a professional would have thought through the same situation. A few months ago, I had a letter published in Paul Jackson"s column in Pokerplayer where I was asking his advice about a very similar situation (In the example I gave him, I had AK,my opponent AQ). His response was that even though in the scenario given, I was getting my chips in the middle as a favourite, it was a foolish move on my part to put my tournament life on the line when I had sufficient left behind to still make a nuisance of myself. I wish I"d listened to him :"(            


I"ve done a bit of maths using Pokerstove and came up with the following: The call is +EV if you have more than around 38% chance of winning the pot against his range (if my calcs are correct). If you put him on AA/KK/QQ/AK you are 29/71 so you should fold. If you put him on AA-88 + AK you are around 38/62 and if you add AQ to his range you are 40/60 so a slight +EV but probably not enough given your tournament live is at stake. But if you think he"s pushing loosely (maybe he"s on the button/SB and stealing so you think he"s raising light so resteal and he thinks that you know he"s stealing so he thinks you"ll reraise light with a wide range, so he shoves with a wide range) say with 55-AA, A9+ you are 52/48 and if you put him on 22-AA + any A + KQ you are 60/40 favourite and an easy call (even if he turns over AK/AA, the call would be correct). So whether the call is correct depends on position and ultimately the hand range you put him on with his raise and the range you think he puts you on with your reraise. Simple!

AMRN

  • Staker Licensed Player
  • Platinum Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5261
Re: Am I a fish or what?
« Reply #245 on: September 11, 2008, 14:32:32 PM »


 It could be argued that I was unlucky to run AQ into AK, but I think this hand illustrates the difference between the thinking of a recreational player compared to how a professional would have thought through the same situation. A few months ago, I had a letter published in Paul Jackson"s column in Pokerplayer where I was asking his advice about a very similar situation (In the example I gave him, I had AK,my opponent AQ). His response was that even though in the scenario given, I was getting my chips in the middle as a favourite, it was a foolish move on my part to put my tournament life on the line when I had sufficient left behind to still make a nuisance of myself. I wish I"d listened to him :"(            


I"ve done a bit of maths using Pokerstove and came up with the following: The call is +EV if you have more than around 38% chance of winning the pot against his range (if my calcs are correct). If you put him on AA/KK/QQ/AK you are 29/71 so you should fold. If you put him on AA-88 + AK you are around 38/62 and if you add AQ to his range you are 40/60 so a slight +EV but probably not enough given your tournament live is at stake. But if you think he"s pushing loosely (maybe he"s on the button/SB and stealing so you think he"s raising light so resteal and he thinks that you know he"s stealing so he thinks you"ll reraise light with a wide range, so he shoves with a wide range) say with 55-AA, A9+ you are 52/48 and if you put him on 22-AA + any A + KQ you are 60/40 favourite and an easy call (even if he turns over AK/AA, the call would be correct). So whether the call is correct depends on position and ultimately the hand range you put him on with his raise and the range you think he puts you on with your reraise. Not Simple at all!



FYP!!   ???   ;D ;D

monkeyman

  • Platinum Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 1352
Re: Am I a fish or what?
« Reply #246 on: September 12, 2008, 22:55:22 PM »
Were any of you watching Prizefighter on Sky tonight? If you were, did you notice where the winning heavyweight came from? Yes that"s right, its Norwich. Glory be, there is at least one person in this county who doesn"t confirm all the usual stereotypes.  
Currently tearing the Ipoker anonymous tables a new one

monkeyman

  • Platinum Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 1352
Re: Am I a fish or what?
« Reply #247 on: September 14, 2008, 10:16:27 AM »
Season two is over and its time for a personal review of the past few months.
  Overall, I"m happy with how things have gone. I"ve spent most of the season in the top ten of the national rankings, got a full set of medals, made 6 online final tables and had, if my memory serves me correctly, plenty of near misses, with a further ten penultimate table departures. This compares extremely favourably to season one when my only rankings points came in Razz, my highest placing in a hold"em event was thirtieth and I was, frankly, out of my depth.
  The evidence is there that I"ve improved as a player and I think there are two key reasons for this. Firstly, my trip to Las Vegas last november was an eye opener. Unlike my previous visit, I didn"t win a cent playing in low buy-in freezeouts. However, I learnt a few key lessons. I played at Planet Hollywood four times and one tournament that sticks in my mind had fifty-five to sixty players with payouts down to eighth. From the opening three or four hands, the player to my left took command of the table, continually raising other players off pots. As the structure of the tournament was such that it wasn"t possible to sit and wait for premium hands, I decided to do something I hadn"t tried before which was to take him on at his own game. I made a point of entering pots by raising and reraising, sometimes with complete junk and built up a healthy chipstack. Ultimately, I was unsuccessful, but I got to the final table and departed just outside the money. The guy I mentioned from my opening table had recently moved to Las Vegas to try and make it as a professional and I discovered later that the field contained four other full time players.  I returned home a few quid poorer but with a couple of additional weapons in my armoury.
  The second big factor in my improvement as a player is the existence of APAT. Before Luton last year, my live experience was my first week in Vegas and one friday night rebuy at the Grosvenor in Great Yarmouth. The latter appeared to be a test of who had the deepest pockets rather than of poker skill so gave me an aversion to rebuy tournaments. In season two I"ve played four regional contests, been to Cardiff and Edinburgh as well as taking part in all four events at The Vic. Playing in freezouts with a sensible chipstack has helped me to develop some good habits which should serve me well in years to come.
  My record in national events is awful. I"ve yet to make day two of a main event in four attempts and have actually gone out quicker with each successive try. The side events in London also didn"t work out at all, so I"ve yet to make my mark outside Norfolk. Maybe I"m allergic to leaving the county!
  The biggest boost I"ve received from season two has indirectly come from the week in London. When I decided I was definitely making the trip to Edgware Road, I decided to try the side events. To prepare myself, from June onwards, I made a point of playing Omaha,Razz and Stud. What I hadn"t expected was that I discovered I could consistently make profits by playing cash stud. As a result, my playing focus has completely altered from being playing almost entirely holdem freezeout multi table tournaments to being primarily a cash player. At the moment, probably 90-95% of my playing time is spent playing stud. This has come about because I"ve taken stock of what I"m looking for from my poker playing and what I"m doing now fits better with my personal cicumstances. As I"ve mentioned previously, I work in a call centre. This obviously isn"t a well paid job which means that, taking my mortgage and other household bills into consideration, my poker has to be, at worst self-supporting. My plan from this point onwards is to try and grow my bankroll and move up a buy in level or two. I"m not saying that I"m giving up on tournament play, but I will not be spending my time making repeated attempts to win single life-changing amounts. Any tournaments I buy into will by paid for by profits made from cash tables.
 I wait with baited breath to see what season three brings. I"m praying that the Great Yarmouth regionals are retained as there is a small nucleus of regulars there who seem to get on with each other and it will give me the opportunity to keep practising my live game. I"d love to see more non hold"em contests and will be very keen to assess the viability of making an attempt to top the overall rankings. This blog will continue for the forseeable future and I look forward to meeting everyone again in season three.
   
Currently tearing the Ipoker anonymous tables a new one

Chipaccrual

  • Administrator
  • Platinum Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 11339
    • APAT
Re: Am I a fish or what?
« Reply #248 on: September 14, 2008, 10:22:30 AM »
 :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :)

monkeyman

  • Platinum Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 1352
Re: Am I a fish or what?
« Reply #249 on: September 17, 2008, 14:42:16 PM »
At the start of each week, I like to take a moment to think about how much poker I"m likely to be able to play in the coming seven days and although I don"t plan everything with military precision, take decisions about what sorts of games I"m likely to play in. With all the APAT end of school year stuff out of the way, I decided this week was as good a time as any to have another try to move up a buy in level in 7 card stud cash.
  Strongly disciplined players like Chris Ferguson advocate never risking more than a set percentage of your bankroll on any given session. For the week starting on Sunday 14/09/08 running through to the following saturday, I am employing a slightly more cavalier approach. Every hand I play this week will be stud at the higher level regardless of how I get on. I will only play on my two favoured stud sites, Pokerstars and Partypoker, and come hell or high water will not step down until the week is out. The potential downside is huge and if I have seven days without hitting any cards, then I will have losses that I can"t really sustain. However, I believe this is the right approach for a number of reasons. Firstly, if I tell myself that I will be successful in a higher grade and that given average luck I won"t have any problems, then my confidence will give me an excellent chance of making the right decisions and maximising returns. I think that if I was to allow myself the escape route of backing down if things don"t start off too well, I will be more likely to avoid confrontation and may as well not be playing. In addition, over the past few weeks, I"ve gradually got an idea of the level of variance involved in what I"m doing. I always buy in for exactly twenty times the big bet. What I normally find is that using my final profit/loss for the week as a guide, the maximum I will go above or below this point is about two times buy-in. I think this gives me a realistic idea of how much I"m likely to win or lose depending on how things go.
  For the record, I"ve had an up and down week so far. I played a lot on sunday and finished fractionally over half a buyin down. I didn"t play much on monday, but did very well, and at about 19.30 last night I was about 1.75 buy-ins in profit. Things then went downhill as I missed a series of strong draws and finished the night a few cents over $5 ahead. It could be argued that I should have stopped before I did to minimise damage, but as far as I"m concerned, I"m a novice at this game and the more hands I play now, regardless of the end result, the better it will be for me long term.
  I"ve got a half day off work this afternoon, so I"ll squeeze in a couple of hours. Tonight I may give myself a night off as my brother Stuart (Oldsoreknees on here) and I may be making our first foray into pub poker.            
Currently tearing the Ipoker anonymous tables a new one

monkeyman

  • Platinum Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 1352
Re: Am I a fish or what?
« Reply #250 on: September 19, 2008, 17:50:55 PM »
The end of the week draws nearer and, oh dear, things really haven"t gone as planned. Variance is part of this game and I started the week by going about 0.5 of a buyin down, then went 1.75 buyins in front and now I"m about 1.5 buyins down. Oddly enough, hand-on-heart, I can look back on the week and say that I"ve played as well as I have since my conversion to stud, but I"ve simply run bad. I normally loathe bad beat stories, but to illustrate my point, I"ve been dealt trips on seven occasions but have only won once. The hand I won was when I hit quad tens on fifth street. Unfortunately, I"d had to step back down a level as there weren"t any games available at the level of my choosing, so I didn"t recover anywhere near as much of my losses as I should have done. On the other six hands, I was leading out, getting called and saw my opponent complete their flush or straight draw on seventh street.
  The big plus of this week so far has been that I"ve picked up a number of hands I know I wouldn"t have managed PV ( Pre-Vic), its just a shame that my bank balance doesn"t reflect this!      
Currently tearing the Ipoker anonymous tables a new one

monkeyman

  • Platinum Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 1352
Re: Am I a fish or what?
« Reply #251 on: September 19, 2008, 22:09:47 PM »
Oh dear god, this just isn"t funny. I"ve successfully managed to push my loss for the week over the two times buy in mark and in the last two hours I"ve played ten hands where I"ve been in the lead on sixth street only to lose on seventh. Funniest bad beat of the lot was when, on sixth street I had two pair (aces and tens) and a royal flush draw (card needed for royal and six others of same suit not yet exposed) but was defeated on seventh street by an opponent who completed a ten-high straight with the only ten left in the deck. Its a good job I"ve got my curtains closed as my neighbours may otherwise have seen the top of my head lift off and steam come out of my ears a la Tom and Jerry.
  I"ve got a day off playing tomorrow so that leaves me to think about my plans for next week. My options are as follows:

1) Give up poker and walk down the road to Mecca bingo
2) Do exactly the same as this week, after all I cant be this unlucky two weeks running, can I?
3) Drop back down a level, allow my blood pressure return to normal levels and try the step up again in a couple of weeks.
4) Reintroduce a little tournament play into the mix
5) Give up stud altogether and return to a diet of deepstack holde"em tourneys
6) Smash my PC into a million pieces  
7) Find religion and decide that gambling is the work of Satan
8) Stop bloody whinging, bad beat stories are also, without exception, all created within the depths of hell
9) Try to execute a cunning yet fiendishly difficult mystery plan
Currently tearing the Ipoker anonymous tables a new one

Bad hat lady

  • New Member
  • *
  • Posts: 30
Re: Am I a fish or what?
« Reply #252 on: September 19, 2008, 22:32:49 PM »

Oh dear god, this just isn"t funny. I"ve successfully managed to push my loss for the week over the two times buy in mark and in the last two hours I"ve played ten hands where I"ve been in the lead on sixth street only to lose on seventh. Funniest bad beat of the lot was when, on sixth street I had two pair (aces and tens) and a royal flush draw (card needed for royal and six others of same suit not yet exposed) but was defeated on seventh street by an opponent who completed a ten-high straight with the only ten left in the deck. Its a good job I"ve got my curtains closed as my neighbours may otherwise have seen the top of my head lift off and steam come out of my ears a la Tom and Jerry.
  I"ve got a day off playing tomorrow so that leaves me to think about my plans for next week. My options are as follows:

1) Give up poker and walk down the road to Mecca bingo
2) Do exactly the same as this week, after all I cant be this unlucky two weeks running, can I?
3) Drop back down a level, allow my blood pressure return to normal levels and try the step up again in a couple of weeks.
4) Reintroduce a little tournament play into the mix
5) Give up stud altogether and return to a diet of deepstack holde"em tourneys
6) Smash my PC into a million pieces  
7) Find religion and decide that gambling is the work of Satan
8) Stop bloody whinging, bad beat stories are also, without exception, all created within the depths of hell
9) Try to execute a cunning yet fiendishly difficult mystery plan


What do you mean that this has been an unlucky couple of weeks. You failed to mention that last week you managed to win the World series of Poker Norwich (Sept competition) and get your first WSOPN bracelet. How much more luck do you want?

p.s. on a serious note the only sensible option is number 3.

Also, I have a secret way of controlling my blood pressure when playing on line; I have a bit of paper with a line down the middle and list any bad beats on one side and any good fortune, e.g. winning from behind, (not that I ever go in behind) on the other. This make it easier to put bad beats in perspective, and if you really are unlucky you have reams of evidence to wave at people.

ibis

  • New Member
  • *
  • Posts: 20
Re: Am I a fish or what?
« Reply #253 on: September 19, 2008, 22:34:10 PM »

1) Give up poker and walk down the road to Mecca bingo
2) Do exactly the same as this week, after all I cant be this unlucky two weeks running, can I?
3) Drop back down a level, allow my blood pressure return to normal levels and try the step up again in a couple of weeks.
4) Reintroduce a little tournament play into the mix
5) Give up stud altogether and return to a diet of deepstack holde"em tourneys
6) Smash my PC into a million pieces  
7) Find religion and decide that gambling is the work of Satan
8) Stop bloody whinging, bad beat stories are also, without exception, all created within the depths of hell
9) Try to execute a cunning yet fiendishly difficult mystery plan


9 interesting....
8 DEFINITELY!
7 Don"t be silly
6 Don"t call me. I"ll only fix it if it"s 4 pieces or less
5 That"s just silly
4 Possibility
2 Bad idea
1 What and get chatted up by the old dears? They"d eat you alive!

Which leaves only 3 or is it too sensible to reduce blood pressure, raise bankroll and re-raise confidence?

monkeyman

  • Platinum Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 1352
Re: Am I a fish or what?
« Reply #254 on: September 19, 2008, 23:10:09 PM »

Oh dear god, this just isn"t funny. I"ve successfully managed to push my loss for the week over the two times buy in mark and in the last two hours I"ve played ten hands where I"ve been in the lead on sixth street only to lose on seventh. Funniest bad beat of the lot was when, on sixth street I had two pair (aces and tens) and a royal flush draw (card needed for royal and six others of same suit not yet exposed) but was defeated on seventh street by an opponent who completed a ten-high straight with the only ten left in the deck. Its a good job I"ve got my curtains closed as my neighbours may otherwise have seen the top of my head lift off and steam come out of my ears a la Tom and Jerry.
  I"ve got a day off playing tomorrow so that leaves me to think about my plans for next week. My options are as follows:

1) Give up poker and walk down the road to Mecca bingo
2) Do exactly the same as this week, after all I cant be this unlucky two weeks running, can I?
3) Drop back down a level, allow my blood pressure return to normal levels and try the step up again in a couple of weeks.
4) Reintroduce a little tournament play into the mix
5) Give up stud altogether and return to a diet of deepstack holde"em tourneys
6) Smash my PC into a million pieces  
7) Find religion and decide that gambling is the work of Satan
8) Stop bloody whinging, bad beat stories are also, without exception, all created within the depths of hell
9) Try to execute a cunning yet fiendishly difficult mystery plan

Oh dear god, this just isn"t funny. I"ve successfully managed to push my loss for the week over the two times buy in mark and in the last two hours I"ve played ten hands where I"ve been in the lead on sixth street only to lose on seventh. Funniest bad beat of the lot was when, on sixth street I had two pair (aces and tens) and a royal flush draw (card needed for royal and six others of same suit not yet exposed) but was defeated on seventh street by an opponent who completed a ten-high straight with the only ten left in the deck. Its a good job I"ve got my curtains closed as my neighbours may otherwise have seen the top of my head lift off and steam come out of my ears a la Tom and Jerry.
  I"ve got a day off playing tomorrow so that leaves me to think about my plans for next week. My options are as follows:

1) Give up poker and walk down the road to Mecca bingo
2) Do exactly the same as this week, after all I cant be this unlucky two weeks running, can I?
3) Drop back down a level, allow my blood pressure return to normal levels and try the step up again in a couple of weeks.
4) Reintroduce a little tournament play into the mix
5) Give up stud altogether and return to a diet of deepstack holde"em tourneys
6) Smash my PC into a million pieces  
7) Find religion and decide that gambling is the work of Satan
8) Stop bloody whinging, bad beat stories are also, without exception, all created within the depths of hell
9) Try to execute a cunning yet fiendishly difficult mystery plan


The options under consideration are (3), (4) and (9). No one will even come close to guessing the exact details of the "mystery" plan but it just might be worth trying.
Currently tearing the Ipoker anonymous tables a new one