Author Topic: $1500 WSOP Event 48 - PLO8  (Read 8514 times)

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DodgyEnd (Tom APAT.be)

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Re: $1500 WSOP Event 48 - PLO8
« Reply #15 on: April 30, 2014, 21:56:29 PM »

Also your numbers are at best confusing and at worst just plain wrong.


Buyin = $1500

You sell 70% of your action, so backers send you $1050

If you cash for $3000, then you should be returning $2100 to your backers (70% of your winnings)

With your method, you are returning their stake of $1050, and then splitting the profit 70/30, which effectively means you are selling your action at a premium.

If you bink a massive cash, then it becomes a lot less significant, but if you only min cashed, then we"re talking about a $400 swing.

Or am I missing something here ?


my thoughts as well... i would be considering to buy a piece, but only if the numbers are correct.

Obviously I don"t know you, so it"s hard to judge you as a player. But your results aren"t good enough to justify the markup that you are charging this way. (Again, I might be wrong as I don"t know you and I have no clue of what your online PLO results are; I can only judge from the live results on Hendon Mob).
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Riddled

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Re: $1500 WSOP Event 48 - PLO8
« Reply #16 on: April 30, 2014, 22:03:53 PM »


Thanks Dan on both counts,

for the record, I"m the ruggedly handsome guy wearing the hoody with the 1000 mile stare.


Could you make it easier for us please.

Are you the one on the left or the one on the right ?



I would take a piece of this, but am a little put off that it is a punt on just the one event, when you say you are self funding other events on the trip.  Would much prefer it if you were offering a smaller percentage across all of your schedule to help even out the variance for the backers aswell as yourself.

Not a criticiism, but hopefully useful feedback.



Leigh


Leigh, you are right on all counts.

The idea is that I"m offering it as a sweat in an event that I know I have a decent edge in, but likewise can"t justify spending the whole amount.

I don"t want to engage in staking in other events for a variety of reasons, the foremost is that I would not be confident of being able to offer good value to the backer, i.e. I will play events that I want to play at the time, not necessarily planning events in advance. The WSOP event is the exception as the only events I would feel quite confident in are $1500 PLO8 and the $3000 PLO8, obviously favouring the cheaper option.

For example, there may be events I will play where I will drink during the event as it is still ultimately a holiday for me. I will obviously not do so in any event where I am backed.

I may also play events after being awake all night, playing any event in which I am backed I would have to plan my time accordingly so that I am well rested.






Riddled

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Re: $1500 WSOP Event 48 - PLO8
« Reply #17 on: April 30, 2014, 22:28:11 PM »


Also your numbers are at best confusing and at worst just plain wrong.


Buyin = $1500

You sell 70% of your action, so backers send you $1050

If you cash for $3000, then you should be returning $2100 to your backers (70% of your winnings)

With your method, you are returning their stake of $1050, and then splitting the profit 70/30, which effectively means you are selling your action at a premium.

If you bink a massive cash, then it becomes a lot less significant, but if you only min cashed, then we"re talking about a $400 swing.

Or am I missing something here ?


my thoughts as well... i would be considering to buy a piece, but only if the numbers are correct.

Obviously I don"t know you, so it"s hard to judge you as a player. But your results aren"t good enough to justify the markup that you are charging this way. (Again, I might be wrong as I don"t know you and I have no clue of what your online PLO results are; I can only judge from the live results on Hendon Mob).



In regards to the premium I am confident that I have a fairly decent edge, however the premium would mainly be to cover exchange rate costs and also contribute towards time and expenses. By putting it in as a premium it means that these costs are only shared in the event of a return as opposed to selling the % at a true premium (i.e. 10% for $180)

If the concensus is that the premium is too much, I would have to consider whether I play the event with backers, or self fund myself into say $500 worth of wsop sats.

My true motive is simply that it would be cool to play a world series event while I"m in Vegas but don"t want to invest 20% of my bankroll to do so.

I hope this has helped.

Cheers,

Mike





MintTrav

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Re: $1500 WSOP Event 48 - PLO8
« Reply #18 on: April 30, 2014, 23:03:24 PM »
Michael, I might have been interested in taking a bit but I"m afraid I"m still a bit confused.

I don"t understand how you came to the $735 figure. Could you explain it please? That amount is 70% of $1,050, but that wouldn"t make sense, so I"m not sure how you got to that answer.

Perhaps you could give a couple of illustrations of amounts returned for different-sized wins and how you calculate them, so we understand what is being offered.
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dwh103

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Re: $1500 WSOP Event 48 - PLO8
« Reply #19 on: April 30, 2014, 23:45:42 PM »
Note: I am the other party travelling with Mike this summer, and we discussed the approach to Vegas, possible backing etc. Feel free to take this post as biased, or motivated by self/friend interest, but it"s my endeavour to be fair and balanced here.



You"re somewhat right Leigh - the numbers are correct, but agree they are very confusing. Mike"s never sold action before, so the lack of clarity is from inexperience imo - I"ve let him know my opinion and I"m sure he"ll be on to tidy things up when he can.

However I do believe you"re overstating the impact of the "premium" - it"s not really a premium in the traditional sense of the word (i.e.selling 10% for $165, rather than $150). I know you"re well involved in staking and have no wish to be patronising, but for the benefit of those who may be less comfortable.

There is no "premium payable" unless Mike cashes. The 70/30 split is basically sharing his ROI in this tournament, it basically gives him the equivalent of a markup (or premium if you prefer) only if he cashes. A min cash of $3k would be the equivalent of buying a piece at approx 1.08 markup, a $100k cash would be the equivalent of 1.42, though I"m sure at that point no-one would be too disappointed.

As we all should, if we look at the long term:

- If the horse is actually -EV, then everyone"s only paid spot rates
- If the horse is +EV, i.e. +50% long run ROI, then backers on average get 35%, and the horse gets 15% for their time, effort and expenses.

Scale the above up or down, simply means that as long as the horse is +EV, then it"s a profitable proposition for both parties, as opposed to selling at pure spot (where basically the horse plays for free) or selling at a premium upfront (where the backers/horse have to guess at a more precise long term ROI).

In my opinion a profit share arrangement is the only fair way (for both horse and backers) to do staking - as long as stakeback is included.
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Riddled

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Re: $1500 WSOP Event 48 - PLO8
« Reply #20 on: May 01, 2014, 07:54:28 AM »

Michael, I might have been interested in taking a bit but I"m afraid I"m still a bit confused.

I don"t understand how you came to the $735 figure. Could you explain it please? That amount is 70% of $1,050, but that wouldn"t make sense, so I"m not sure how you got to that answer.

Perhaps you could give a couple of illustrations of amounts returned for different-sized wins and how you calculate them, so we understand what is being offered.


I think Dave has explained it better than I have (Thanks Batman)

Lets go under the assumption that I sold 100% of my action.

Backers would pay a total of $1500 and I would incur all expenses related. If I didn"t do a profit split then it would be assumed that I get nothing in the event of a cash including no contribution to expenses.

I wouldn"t want or need 100% backing as I would like to have as much of myself as possible as I will always see myself as having a massive long run expected value against that field.

If you would like to pm me an email address I will set up a spreadsheet with an option to calculate potential returns.


hi_am_chris

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Re: $1500 WSOP Event 48 - PLO8
« Reply #21 on: May 01, 2014, 22:58:44 PM »
What makes you confident you have a decent edge against the field?

Online results? if so what are they?

Do you play online cash? If so what stakes? any graphs?

Live results other than the apats?

PokerRoyalFlush9

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Re: $1500 WSOP Event 48 - PLO8
« Reply #22 on: May 01, 2014, 23:12:51 PM »
I do not know Mr Perry well, but i am happy to take 10% on this. I am sure if he was not confident in his game I am sure he would not try and put up a staking request.I Look at staking as an investment and if he cash and i win some money good for us and if i do not win anything this time round there is always next time.A lot of you do not know me but i am not a big player (I have never had a winning year at poker since I started) so I took up staking and been lucky to pick the right ones (was lucky enough to have 10% in someone that put a stake up before Christmas and he chopped up a deal three handed).

Riddled

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Re: $1500 WSOP Event 48 - PLO8
« Reply #23 on: May 05, 2014, 17:58:30 PM »
Apologies, I haven"t been able to get on to the forum for a few days.

In response to some of the queries I am going to start another thread where I will attempt to play some PLO8 comps between now and the end of June. I unfortunately have exams over the next three weeks so will be relatively inactive until then.

It will have to be comps, not cash, because I don"t have the patience for full ring since zoom came along, and they only offer no-limit PLO8 (god knows why, the amount of times you"ll see 1/2 pot, 1/2 pot, 15 times pot is ridic).

Will post link when up and running.


PokerRoyalFlush9

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Re: $1500 WSOP Event 48 - PLO8
« Reply #24 on: May 05, 2014, 21:14:11 PM »
I am still happy to take what I asked for in the 1st place

Robbiebox

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Re: $1500 WSOP Event 48 - PLO8
« Reply #25 on: May 09, 2014, 20:02:15 PM »
Michael will you post a link to your OPR?
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Riddled

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Re: $1500 WSOP Event 48 - PLO8
« Reply #26 on: May 29, 2014, 07:40:26 AM »
Sorry for the delay in getting back to this, I"ve had accountancy exams recently and they sort of consumed my life.

In response to the queries I don"t pay many online mtts, mainly plo cash (This year I have played about 35k+ hands profitably).

My stars ID is MichaelPerry

Saturday I"ll try and get a schedule in but I"m also playing the 150 PLO in Aspers this Sunday.


Just to clarify I will also be playing this event now whatever backing I get,

15% gone.

Robbiebox

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Re: $1500 WSOP Event 48 - PLO8
« Reply #27 on: May 29, 2014, 09:43:24 AM »
Hi Michael,
Your OPR stats don"t really back up the edge you claim. Do you have HM or Ptracker cash graphs that you can post?
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mylesfdo

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Re: $1500 WSOP Event 48 - PLO8
« Reply #28 on: May 29, 2014, 10:31:37 AM »


Also your numbers are at best confusing and at worst just plain wrong.


Buyin = $1500

You sell 70% of your action, so backers send you $1050

If you cash for $3000, then you should be returning $2100 to your backers (70% of your winnings)

With your method, you are returning their stake of $1050, and then splitting the profit 70/30, which effectively means you are selling your action at a premium.

If you bink a massive cash, then it becomes a lot less significant, but if you only min cashed, then we"re talking about a $400 swing.

Or am I missing something here ?


my thoughts as well... i would be considering to buy a piece, but only if the numbers are correct.

Obviously I don"t know you, so it"s hard to judge you as a player. But your results aren"t good enough to justify the markup that you are charging this way. (Again, I might be wrong as I don"t know you and I have no clue of what your online PLO results are; I can only judge from the live results on Hendon Mob).


What makes you confident you have a decent edge against the field?

Online results? if so what are they?

Do you play online cash? If so what stakes? any graphs?

Live results other than the apats?

Michael, I might have been interested in taking a bit but I"m afraid I"m still a bit confused.

I don"t understand how you came to the $735 figure. Could you explain it please? That amount is 70% of $1,050, but that wouldn"t make sense, so I"m not sure how you got to that answer.

Perhaps you could give a couple of illustrations of amounts returned for different-sized wins and how you calculate them, so we understand what is being offered.

Also your numbers are at best confusing and at worst just plain wrong.


Buyin = $1500

You sell 70% of your action, so backers send you $1050

If you cash for $3000, then you should be returning $2100 to your backers (70% of your winnings)

With your method, you are returning their stake of $1050, and then splitting the profit 70/30, which effectively means you are selling your action at a premium.

If you bink a massive cash, then it becomes a lot less significant, but if you only min cashed, then we"re talking about a $400 swing.

Or am I missing something here ?


+1 to all of the above.....would be interested in 5% if on an equal profit split.....in my staking/backing experiences unequal profit share usually comes into play when horse is selling 100% of themselves on a make up deal.

Riddled

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Re: $1500 WSOP Event 48 - PLO8
« Reply #29 on: May 30, 2014, 18:59:42 PM »
OPR stats aren"t really that relevant due to the limited sample size (100 over 3 years), though I have been speaking to Dave H and he has explained that my stats aren"t perhaps as reassuring verifiable as they should be for this kind of staking event.

I have reconsidered my position and will sell a small amount at spot for those who do wish to have a flutter (including people who have already backed me.)

Apologies if this thread has been a bit amateur, I have obviously never sought staking before...