Author Topic: Football Bets  (Read 5477 times)

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nosey-p

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Football Bets
« on: August 15, 2014, 06:07:44 AM »
The forum has been going for about 7/8 years and we have never had a football betting thread so I"m going to start one. If you want to share your football knowledge  and your bets then post on here.

With the premiership starting, my first bet is a treble

Man U / Ars enal / Liverpool  1.3/1

All 3 have been playing well in pre-season, all at home  

3pts
« Last Edit: August 15, 2014, 06:17:44 AM by nosey-p »

nosey-p

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Re: Football Bets
« Reply #1 on: August 15, 2014, 06:17:01 AM »
Rotherham to beat Wolves

No reasoning behind this, just Rotherham is my team. Played really well against Darby and should have got a draw, only 4 players started against Fleetwood so would not read too much into that 0-0. Last year it was 3-3 at home and 6-4 at Wolves so expected to see plenty of goals

1pts Rotherham win  15/8
2pts over 2.5 goals  1/1      

nosey-p

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Re: Football Bets
« Reply #2 on: August 17, 2014, 11:55:11 AM »
not a good start -3pts

Liverpool to win -1  21/20

2pts

« Last Edit: August 17, 2014, 12:04:06 PM by nosey-p »

ronaldo07

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Re: Football Bets
« Reply #3 on: August 17, 2014, 17:31:11 PM »

Rotherham to beat Wolves

No reasoning behind this, just Rotherham is my team. Played really well against Darby and should have got a draw, only 4 players started against Fleetwood so would not read too much into that 0-0. Last year it was 3-3 at home and 6-4 at Wolves so expected to see plenty of goals

1pts Rotherham win  15/8
2pts over 2.5 goals  1/1      



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noble1

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Re: Football Bets
« Reply #4 on: August 18, 2014, 18:04:08 PM »
Burnley v Chelsea 18th August

back to lay
Burnley to win at 10.5 on bf

back to lay in correct score market
Burnley 1-0 @28"s

and i"m backing 1-1 @11"s with a view to lay, depends on how the match pans out...

noble1

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Re: Football Bets
« Reply #5 on: August 18, 2014, 20:19:51 PM »

Burnley v Chelsea 18th August

back to lay
Burnley to win at 10.5 on bf

back to lay in correct score market
Burnley 1-0 @28"s

and i"m backing 1-1 @11"s with a view to lay, depends on how the match pans out...


back to lay in correct score market
Burnley 1-0 @28"s now 12"s got a profit

Burnley to win at 10.5 on bf  now 3.55 got a profit

and i"m backing 1-1 @11"s with a view to lay, depends on how the match pans out - currently 5.8 to draw 1-1 cos as i write Chelsea equalise, i might try to hang for half time :)

noble1

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Re: Football Bets
« Reply #6 on: August 18, 2014, 20:22:48 PM »
lost out on the 1-1, but heyho a profit is a profit :)

i can see a few more goals yet lol lol... what a game :)

noble1

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Re: Football Bets
« Reply #7 on: August 18, 2014, 20:30:42 PM »
Burnley @55"s to win, just for some interest i"ve backed at min with a view to lay off.... just for a wee bit of interest

noble1

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Re: Football Bets
« Reply #8 on: August 18, 2014, 20:36:12 PM »

Burnley @55"s to win, just for some interest i"ve backed at min with a view to lay off.... just for a wee bit of interest


unless there is a miracle i may of just lost 2 quid lol lol

nosey-p

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Re: Football Bets
« Reply #9 on: August 19, 2014, 06:48:33 AM »
Looks like you are better at this as well  :D


AAroddersAA

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Re: Football Bets
« Reply #10 on: August 19, 2014, 08:54:13 AM »
As much as I hate to say it, for neutrals Mansfield has to be a good bet tonight @ 13/10. They had a very good result on Saturday and we look terrible at the moment. I really hope I am wrong but I would be going 2pts on that at the moment if I was not a County fan.
-----------------------------

Still trying to think of something amusing to write in this bit.

nosey-p

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Re: Football Bets
« Reply #11 on: August 19, 2014, 09:15:49 AM »
-5pts

Nont a great start to this thread 5 points down after the weekend.

Rotherham at home against Watford @ 2/1 looks temting but allthough they won on Saturday it was not convincing and by the reports we should have lost by 4 goals but Rotherham will be hard to beat at home and would not put anyone off them. Suprised they have not been more goals in there 2 games so far, they way they play would sugest plenty of goals but at 8/11 for over 2.5 looks a bit short so will give this a miss.

3 home games Reading, Coventry and Shresbury all started the season in good form all at home and all @ a decent price

2pts treble 8/1  

   

noble1

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Re: Football Bets
« Reply #12 on: August 19, 2014, 12:21:56 PM »

Looks like you are better at this as well  :D


hmmm very doubtful Wayne, there was some basic logic to why i fancied a back to lay on Burnley...  its math based loosely on negative binomial distribution... i"m not a fan of trying to predict football, published forecast models are complete tosh imho, all the tripe by so called football experts on poisson distribution/regression or stats/rank based models/systems are complete balderdash, would anyone with an ounce of sense honestly believe that the best predictive programs are published for the public? of course they wouldn"t, the best prediction models are snapped up and used by the gambling industry/bookmakers, it crunches out its numbers and then a odds setter will adjust the models odds accounting for any extra info.....
anyhooooo"s thats my daily rant over with ;D i had browse of all the football expert tipsters on the internet out of interest today and boy oh boy my blood boiled at some of the math bo-llocks they come out with...

is my approach profitable? long term i don"t know... bare bones reasoning was i looked at Chelsea"s away record last year to see how often they conceded first, there defence at the time and whether or not Matic made any difference in the 2nd half of the season... hence i fancied Burnley to score first and at the odds pre-match i saw this as a half decent value back to lay bet....

on last nights showing i"m still on the fence as to whether or not Mourinho has plugged the defensive away problems his team had last year...

noble1

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Re: Football Bets
« Reply #13 on: August 19, 2014, 12:36:49 PM »

-5pts

Nont a great start to this thread 5 points down after the weekend.

Rotherham at home against Watford @ 2/1 looks temting but allthough they won on Saturday it was not convincing and by the reports we should have lost by 4 goals but Rotherham will be hard to beat at home and would not put anyone off them. Suprised they have not been more goals in there 2 games so far, they way they play would sugest plenty of goals but at 8/11 for over 2.5 looks a bit short so will give this a miss.

3 home games Reading, Coventry and Shresbury all started the season in good form all at home and all @ a decent price

2pts treble 8/1  


just to put the pressure on you :) i"m going to back all your selections at £1 a point for the whole of the season :)

fingers crossed for tonight ;)

nosey-p

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Re: Football Bets
« Reply #14 on: August 19, 2014, 15:50:25 PM »


-5pts

Nont a great start to this thread 5 points down after the weekend.

Rotherham at home against Watford @ 2/1 looks temting but allthough they won on Saturday it was not convincing and by the reports we should have lost by 4 goals but Rotherham will be hard to beat at home and would not put anyone off them. Suprised they have not been more goals in there 2 games so far, they way they play would sugest plenty of goals but at 8/11 for over 2.5 looks a bit short so will give this a miss.

3 home games Reading, Coventry and Shresbury all started the season in good form all at home and all @ a decent price

2pts treble 8/1  


just to put the pressure on you :) i"m going to back all your selections at £1 a point for the whole of the season :)

fingers crossed for tonight ;)


tonight is my last bet  :D