Author Topic: Saturday Donkey  (Read 565882 times)

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noble1

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Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #675 on: July 01, 2012, 17:52:59 PM »


@noble Thanks for analysis.;)

IMO we"ll see one of the most thrilling German 2000 Guineas over the past years.

I"m totally sure that one of the german horses will win it. It"s not patriotism why I think so. Can"t believe that the performance of both british horses are good enough this time to to take it down.

Tai Chi was an excellent 2y and the aim was to prepare him for the french and maybe german derby. Now they scratched him and drop him in distance, which will give him a top chance, if he is at 100%. Trainer is a great guy, whole family are horsemen, had a lot of fun with him but sadly he"s seriously ill ( lung cancer) and wish with all of my heart that Tai Chi will win it. Fingers cross for you Werner!

Amarillo and Energizer are two top horses and imo both are in the finish. One dark horse I have pick up, it"s Pastorius. This horse scared me a bit and nobody should underestimate him. Result of last race didnt show his class because he didnt found a passage last furlong. This horse is really interesting and gain any attention for all your bets.



What an amazing finish and Terry Hellier made it with a great jockeyship. He deserve it absolutely. Top jockey in germany for so many years, also trainer Mario Hofer. Both wins the derby first time.

Derby winner PASTORIUS 321/10 winnner was still in thoughts. So I hit the trifecta and exacta, sadly GIRALOMO finished by a noose 3rd. Guess both bets had paid much more more Im still happy about the result.

1. 5 Pastorius    
2. 1 Novellist          
3. 7 Girolamo    

Win: 321/10
Place: 49-16-25/10
Ex: 726/10
Tri: 6716/10      


yep good spot Achim , i was on with a couple of singles with Pastorius and Black Arrow, the price discrepancy between the two was rather odd taking into account when they faced each other at Cologne and Krefeld, Pastorius was full of running when 4th over 9f at Krefeld behind Amaron.. amazing price....

CincinnatiKid

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Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #676 on: July 01, 2012, 18:04:15 PM »
Hope you had also some good payouts noble.;) Derby Meeting will continue now tuesday to thursday.

Derby - full result:

1. Pastorius 321/10
2. Novellist 17/10
3. Girolamo 115/10
4. Baltic Rock 118/10
5. Black Arrow 59/10
6. Andolini 303/10
7. Salon Soldier 287/10
8. Nostro Amico 547/10
9. Anakin Skywalker 509/10
10.Feuerblitz 83/10
11.Macao 755/10
12.Milord 227/10
13.Russian Song 329/10
14.Mano Diao 237/10

1/2-kK-1-1 1/4-3 1/2-K-H-1/2-K-8-3-20-10

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m_ryf7yiu5s&list=UUc41_Zgh2E7znIMR8sVTTWw&index=1&feature=plcp

« Last Edit: July 01, 2012, 18:16:20 PM by CincinnatiKid »
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noble1

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Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #677 on: July 01, 2012, 18:41:31 PM »

Hope you had also some good payouts noble.;) Derby Meeting will continue now tuesday to thursday.


not had a bad day at the Curragh today, started off slow for the 1st four races then bagged the next 4 winners 8)
busy busy atm with the US racing about to start at Woodbine, Belmont and Monmouth, well its started already, i can"t write quick enough replies, to much to do :) Silent Star has got me off to winning start, just got to lay a few more tonight and keep my eyes peeled on the markets for any angles...
If you fancy anything strongly at Hamburg put it up here Achim.. Right i have to log off now, my multi-tasking gets slower as i get older ;D

mucho regards
noble

CincinnatiKid

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Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #678 on: July 02, 2012, 10:42:44 AM »
Nantes - Race 2 - 17:10 MEZ

DERBY DE L"OUEST - GRAND PRIX DE L"ASSELCO (Listed)

# 5 Gentle Storm
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CincinnatiKid

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Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #679 on: July 03, 2012, 15:30:16 PM »

Nantes - Race 2 - 17:10 MEZ

DERBY DE L"OUEST - GRAND PRIX DE L"ASSELCO (Listed)

# 5 Gentle Storm


Didnt saw the race, heard an unlucky jockeyship. No passage hard at the rails so 5th a big disappointment for whole connection.

Derby Meeting Hamburg

1R - Elaysa
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CincinnatiKid

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Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #680 on: July 03, 2012, 16:30:16 PM »
Derby Meeting Hamburg

1R - Elaysa
2R. - (Trotter)
3R - Sinaola
4R - Irving
5R -    Black Cool Cat
6R - Atempo
7R - (Trotter)

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CincinnatiKid

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Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #681 on: July 03, 2012, 16:45:07 PM »

Derby Meeting Hamburg

1R - Elaysa  :(
2R. - (Trotter)
3R - Sinaola  :(
4R - Irving 2.
5R -    Black Cool Cat 3.
6R - Atempo 3.
7R - (Trotter)



8R -    Soudabeh 3.
9R - Batya  :( (hurdle)
10R-Big Red Dragon  :(
« Last Edit: July 03, 2012, 20:23:13 PM by CincinnatiKid »
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CincinnatiKid

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Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #682 on: July 04, 2012, 13:03:09 PM »
Derby Meeting Hamburg

1.Key of Love
2.Slight Advantage
3.Christoph Columbus
4.Inside Heart
5.Gelon (hurdle)
6.Zarras
7.Mudschahid
8.Fresh Lady
9.Lampio
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noble1

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Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #683 on: July 04, 2012, 18:09:45 PM »
Pietsch is riding well today Achim with Key Of Love, Tres Rock Danon and Austin Powers..


CincinnatiKid

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Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #684 on: July 04, 2012, 21:13:42 PM »

Derby Meeting Hamburg

1.Key of Love 1.
2.Slight Advantage  :(
3.Christoph Columbus 3.
4.Inside Heart :(
5.Gelon (hurdle) 1.
6.Zarras 2.
7.Mudschahid  :(
8.Fresh Lady  :(
9.Lampio  :(
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CincinnatiKid

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Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #685 on: July 04, 2012, 21:18:53 PM »

Pietsch is riding well today Achim with Key Of Love, Tres Rock Danon and Austin Powers..



Yes, but I dont like him. Engaged him two times as a jockey and imo he fools me both times. Ignore the order. Both times favourite or co favourite. *grrrrrr*

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CincinnatiKid

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Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #686 on: July 05, 2012, 11:23:13 AM »
Derby Meeting Hamburg (final day)

1. Aosta Spring 2.
2. Durban Thunder(non-runner) Point Blank 1.
3. Pongal 2.
4. Kimbra 2.
5. Lady of Budysin :(
6. Sternenwind(non-runner) Ron  :(
7. Golden Tough  :(
8. Nice Nelly :(
9. Giant Step  :(
« Last Edit: July 05, 2012, 20:08:39 PM by CincinnatiKid »
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noble1

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Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #687 on: July 07, 2012, 07:15:21 AM »
SANDOWN
2:05 -
Elusivity - 8/1
Medicean Man - 10/1

take bog if using a bookie...

3:45 -
Farhh - win get 9/4 or bigger if you can [2/1 ok]
Twice Over - e/w @ 14/1+ [you can get 16"s if you hunt about]

4:20 -
Askar Tau - 6/1 available as i write [take BOG]


HAYDOCK
2:55 -
Salford Art - 10/1 with WH as i write @ BOG

3:25 -
Tmaam - 10/1
Number Theory - 8/1

noble1

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Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #688 on: July 10, 2012, 02:31:35 AM »
made a small profit of 4.2 points Saturday following the week before with a 5 point gain, slowly but surely :) Number Theory won and Twice Over placed.
all in all the thread is approx +91 points up since the flat season started just doing Saturdays, the Newmarket Guineas, York and Ascot meetings.. Nothing spectacular but i"ll strive to improve upon that as the season goes, i"ve been experimenting with a long shot scatter gun approach that is +340 points up on betfair since i started that on May 8th, as i refine my logic i"ll start to put up some picks on here, but its not for the faint hearted :) although this being a poker community will mean most will understand the variance involved, the little dips, the big dips ;D, the big and small gains and the long break-even stretches :)

below is a good short video about Secretariat, that long stride is so much similar to that of Frankel"s don"t you think?

[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QtuEoiYiqZw&feature=g-vrec[/youtube]

noble1

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Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #689 on: July 12, 2012, 04:24:28 AM »
right lets have a crack at the Newmarket July meet, with all the rain the odd surprise met happen :)

1:20 - Bahrain Trophy
i"m not a fan of betting short prices and i want to take on Gosden"s entry - Shantaram, i prefer to back 1m4f winners in this race and as Valiant and Rewarded haven"t raced further than 10f then at the prices i prefer Yazdi should handle ground conditions plus the drop back to 13f should be more suitable after his lto at Ascot in the Queens Vase and it won"t be surprising if he causes a minor shock at odds of 6/1 atm with the street bookies, trading around the 8.4 mark on BF as i write...

1:50 - TNT July Stakes
Gale Force Ten @3/1 as i write
Alhebayeb @11/2 as i write, you might get 8"s on BF if you get on early, i"ll be surprised if his price gets any bigger..

the ground sways me towards these two, Sir Prancealot"s action puts me off him, Ahern met improve but at the prices i"d favour Gale Force Ten to be the better of the two from the Norfolk Stakes..
the Windsor Castle Stakes was a pretty decent race again this year and the obvious one is Alhebayeb, Smoothtalkinrascal didn"t get the best of runs and it won"t surprise me one jot if he improves for the step up in trip, i met be tempted with a each way punt if his price keeps drifting..

2:25 - Goldsmiths Handicap
Silver Blaze @16/1
Zaina @16/1

both can be backed at bigger on BF at 19"s and 24"s currently... Nabucco and Hajras have solid claims but in such a open looking race on paper they are way to short for me to back...

3:00 - Princess of Wales"s Goldsmiths Stakes
Quest For Peace
Fiorente - both trading at 14"s in the main, better prices to be had on BF for both [especially Q.for.P]

both ran in the Hardwicke but should come on from that as both didn"t get the race ran to suit, i"ve picked the winner for this race for the last two runnings - Crystal Capella and Sans Frontieres, Leigh met remember the latter who won at 14/1 because he couldn"t see why i had picked it out that year, well the Hardwicke was a rather good race that year with Harbinger winning rather nicely.. This years renewal was rather decent and Sea Moon will be hard to beat if he goes for the King George next [just like Harbinger] so keep that in mind... Red Cadeaux should win if he re-produce his Hardwicke run but i have niggling doubts as to whether he is truly suited to Newmarket, so at the prices Quest For Peace and Fiorente appeal, Q.for.P likes Newmarket and the ground is no problem, if he re-produces his form as when behind Al Kazeem then he could cause a shock.. Fiorente should be backed just for Stoutes record in this, plus with Ryan Moore back aboard today that should bring about some more improvement... so to keep my Princess of Wales"s record intact remember i did fancy Red Cadeaux [but not at 5/2 :)]
« Last Edit: July 12, 2012, 05:42:27 AM by noble1 »