7th June Epsom Derby
Austraila has a very good chance based on his prep in the 2000 Guineas, he wasn"t stopping and got within 3/4"s of length of winning the thing. New Approach and Sir Percy were the last two non winners of the 2000g to go on and win the Derby, NA got within a nose of winning and SP was 2nd behind George Washington, trailing by 2 and a half lengths. Camelot and Sea the Stars won both classics, this rather puts me off Kingston Hill"s chances today as he was 5 lengths back, recent reminders like Mars last year and Native Khan in 2011 after finishing 3rd behind Frankel in the 2000g put me off Kingston Hill.. Added to that, why didn"t they prep him over further like the last Racing Post winner to win the Derby, Motivator prepped in the Dante.. Even if the heavens open up and the ground gets soft i"d still fancy 3 or 4 to beat KH.
So of the other trials is there anything to take on Austraila realistically? The Derrinstown trial was ran so slow and 3 finished in a heap, Geoffrey Chaucer maybe open to more improvement than Fascinating Rock and Ebanoran but the way the race was ran puts me off there winning chances.
Arod"s 2nd in the Dante at first looked sub par until the Great Gatsby won the French Derby and Arod wasn"t slowing at the finish. True Story had no excuses imho and if he"s ground dependent then he might have a squeak if the rain stays away, but of the two i"d fancy Arod to finish ahead again today.
Orchestra ran well in the Chester Vase and may improve bundles whatever the ground and theres Western Hymn to consider after his slog in the mud in the Sandown classic trial..
Austraila @ 13/8 5point win
Orchestra @ 14/1 1point win
Western Hymn @ 16/1 1point win
