Cheltenham Festival 2011/2012

[pables]

Wonder if anyone won a Tricast on the last race..... 

1. Oiseau de Nuit      40-1
2. Askthemaster       50-1
3. Leo's Lucky Star   20-1

The odds of that probably far outweigh the odds! 

[noble1]

Here’s my 1st of many as the festival looms up long'ish ''short list'' for this years Cheltenham 2012, early days yet mind and i will try to keep an open mind right up to the weekend before the meeting, so picks might and will probably change.. Just spent the night watching the superbowl and going over the potential runners, the Gold Cup looks wide open this year, i've had a wee rare for me ante post dabble on Quito De La Roque his Lexus run i've ignored with the proximity of Roberto Goldbeck i think Quito just had a off day and will put up a far better performance in the Hennessey.... [i hope as then his odds will tumble for the GC]
So after watching a few races, reading up on trainers comments etc and doing some number crunching on my abacus my tentative picks and long shots at the mo are -


Champion Hurdle - Hurricane Fly

World Hurdle - Big Bucks

the 1st 2 should be nailed on lol... 


Arkle - Peddlers Cross

Neptune - Simonsig to upset current fav Boston Bob [i'm hoping]

RSA - Last Instalment and First Lieutenant

Ryanair - Quel Esprit [if he runs] or Blazing Tempo [possibles to cause a upset]

Albert Bartlett - Sword of Destiny at a nice price is interesting

Gold Cup - Quito de la Roque, Quel Esprit [if he runs] Grand Crus [cant ignore him, i hope connections decide to give him a go in the big'un]


not long to go

[Chipaccrual]

Champion Hurdle - Hurricane Fly

World Hurdle - Big Bucks

the 1st 2 should be nailed on lol... 

Absolutely agree with this, otherwise we might as well just all pack it in.

Arkle - Peddlers Cross

Neptune - Simonsig to upset current fav Boston Bob [i'm hoping]

RSA - Last Instalment and First Lieutenant

Ryanair - Quel Esprit [if he runs] or Blazing Tempo [possibles to cause a upset]

Albert Bartlett - Sword of Destiny at a nice price is interesting

Gold Cup - Quito de la Roque, Quel Esprit [if he runs] Grand Crus [cant ignore him, i hope connections decide to give him a go in the big'un]

Always been a follower of Grand Crus, so hoping they make the right decision.

Sword of Destiny is an interesting pick. 

[ThinkerJE]

Champion Hurdle - Hurricane Fly

World Hurdle - Big Bucks

the 1st 2 should be nailed on lol... 


Absolutely agree with this, otherwise we might as well just all pack it in.

Agreed - I have one ante post bet (which is not normally my thing) on all 4 champions retaining their titles

Hurricane and bucks are bomb proof and I loved how sizing Europe won last weekend - hopefully will be able to lay long run in the gold cup after the first 3 have gone in

[ThinkerJE]

If super Saturday goes ahead keep any eye on the betfair hurdle - 3 coral cup winners and 4 county hurdle winners have run in it in the last 8 years...

[ThinkerJE]

Mixed bag at Leopardstown today;

First Lieutenant did it well in the Moriarty and should be a player at the festival

Hennessy was a weak race (don't understand why there were no British raiders), won well by Quel Esprit but he is surely looking at a place in the gold cup at best

50/1 rag won the deloitte so that cannot be a good race either

Dermot Weld juvenile won the grade 1 but again not sure if he beat much

Irish have some obvious big festival chances with Hurricane Fly and Sizing Europe - but I think they will struggle to match the volume of winners they got last year, don't look to have the strength in depth

[noble1]

Neptune - one more that i've had a dabble on - Colour Squadron , i fancy him to improve [a lot] running left handed, especially based on what i saw of him in the Tolworth running right handed.... i've got on @ 16/1...

[ThinkerJE]

Holiday signed off at work - managed to get the entire week off

Just over 3 weeks till the off, trends done for all the races on Tuesday & Wednesday, more work to do for the other 2 days

CANNOT WAIT!!!

[KautoStar]

There is nothing better than the festival.

Tuesday sprinter scare, hurricane fly, quevega treble     al ferof ,uncle junior e/w double
wed      grand crus sizing europe double
thurs lump all winnings on big bucks
fri     sit back and enjoy a gold cup without betting

will certainly have a wee dable in other races LOVE the festival

[jacklevel06]

Just over a week to go and iv,e just about finished studying day 1  . I'm always looking to get the short price runners beat and sprinter sacre is top of the list , could just be a flat course horse imo. Also was'nt convinced by the top 2 in the market in the gold cup (even before kauto's injury scare) and feel a big upset could be on the cards.Will post more tomorrow.

[ThinkerJE]

Peddlers Cross to miss Arkle and runs in Jewson instead;

http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/donald-mccain/donald-mccain-peddlers-cross-to-run-in-jewson-050312.html

Looks like McCain doesn't see Peddlers reversing form with Sprinter Sacre so has taken the "easy" option

Like the look of Al Ferof in this race all the more now - the top rated hurdler in the Arkle field is great from a trends points of view

[noble1]

Peddlers Cross to miss Arkle and runs in Jewson instead;

http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/donald-mccain/donald-mccain-peddlers-cross-to-run-in-jewson-050312.html

Looks like McCain doesn't see Peddlers reversing form with Sprinter Sacre so has taken the "easy" option

Like the look of Al Ferof in this race all the more now - the top rated hurdler in the Arkle field is great from a trends points of view

yep its a shame Peddlers won't be seen taking on Sacre.... i quite like the profile of Cristal Bonus for the Jewson, a pacey sort, a french bred/import who looks like he is improving very rapidly based on his kempton win in the Pendil nov ch.
6 or 7's is a reasonable price for CB atm so worth a wee punt imho, ignore his previous runs at chelters over hurdles and his odds to win the Jewson would be more like 3 to 4's in my book [allowing for the connections]...

chelters is looming large.... weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

[ThinkerJE]

Just managed to win a free £50 bet from oddschecker.com

http://www.oddschecker.com/promotions.html

Hope the run good continues next week

[ThinkerJE]

Cheltenham Day 1

It is finally here - let battle commence

First thing is that the bookies are cutting each others throats to get you to bet with them - lots of special terms like 5 places and cashback offers if your selection finishes 2nd or loses to a named horse so shop around to get the best value out there.

I think it is going to be a very good day for W P Mullins & R Walsh

1.30 Supreme Novice Hurdle

Trifolium, Allure Of Illusion & Tetlami

2.05 Arkle Chase

Al Ferof (will back with a certain Irish bookmaker who will give you your money back if Sprinter Sacre wins)

2.40 JLT Handicap Chase

Tullamore Dew, Fruity O Rooney & Billie Magern

3.20 Champion Hurdle

Hurricane Fly & Zaidpour (EW)

4.00 Cross Country Chase

Scotsirish & Tally Em Up (EW)

4.40 Mares Hurdle

Quevega & Terre Du Vent (EW)

5.15 Pulteney Novices Handicap Chase

Going Wrong, Ackertac & Owen Glendower

GL to all having a bet

[Swinebag22]

My picks
1.30 steps to freedom
2.05 al ferof
2.40 rogues dancer EW
3.20 zaidpour EW, hurricane fly
4.00 sizing Australia, garde champetre EW