Poker Forum > Strategy

easy decision early on? Call or fold?

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Swinebag:
preflop with that raise - put her on JJ,1010, AK, (cant have AA and KK)

post flop put her on Ah K. dont think she would push with 1010h or JJh or AhKh

You have the made hand but she has many outs (14??) and is a slight favourite.

You have correct odds to call but its your tourney life on the line. A lot of people would fold and preserve their chips for a better spot. I think it depends on your attitude to getting chips early in a tourney. Do you gamble with correct odds, win, double up and start to build a big stack, (or lose and hit the cash tables - where this would surely be a mandatory call - wouldn"t it?)

I think a lot of pros would call here

Its a look at the watch for me here. I"d 50% call, 50%fold.

UKChamp:
At first thought a 6bb preflop raise shows weakness in that she seems to want limited action, so I put her on TT/JJ. But given that people behind will have a pot of 850 and require a 600 call its not actually a particularly oversized raise at all. So I extend her range to include QQ/KK/AA/AKo&s. I dont subsribe to the fact you should exclude the big pairs because she raised smaller last time (the limper is UTG and she maybe gaining cheap info whilst isolating with bigger raise than before).The problem here is I dont know what the makeup of the table is, is this the kind of raise that will get callers or has the table been slow, in which case it could look weaker?

Your raise however makes the pot 3650, with only 1600 to call.

From her perspective your range is quite wide as you look like you could potentially be looking to pick up the dead money in a squeeze play or isolate with a big ace or medium pair upwards 99>AA.

An interesting point is that she flat called your raise knowing there is still someone to act behind her.  How it affects her range I am not quite sure yet because if she has AA/KK the best move is to actually flat call. Raising gives away too much strength and reduces EV by negating a call from MP with a potentially weaker hand. 

It isnt correct for her to call with any pair below KK because the implied odds are not there with the remaining stacks. She needs to be paid of ahead of 8:1 to call with known under pairs and your stack only offers around 4:1.

At this point I give her the calling range of AA/KK/AKs (the latter being only because the pot odds are favourable). Pairs lower than KK may beat some of her understanding of your range (although many combinations of which fall to a coin toss) but being so early in the tourny and being out of position I discount calling off a third of her stack with QQ/JJ.

The flop push to me looks weak and is probably a mistake. In a sense the only hands that can possibly call that, taking into account the preceeding action, are ones that have her beat or none at all. So its a negative EV move.

Your QQ may indeed be ahead of a funky/odd hand, but I dont see that you are significantly ahead of any of her correct calling range.

If it were later in the tourny then that changes things; as you stack size may dictate a call. But given you still have a relativley deep stack I would be happy to pass here and look for another spot to reraise her in position with a big hand. Maybe even pushing on her with a big made hand/nuts on the flop in a move that looks to agitate her.

AMRN:

--- Quote from: Swinebag22 on January 09, 2008, 09:15:27 AM ---
preflop with that raise - put her on JJ,1010, AK, (cant have AA and KK)

post flop put her on Ah K. dont think she would push with 1010h or JJh or AhKh

You have the made hand but she has many outs (14??) and is a slight favourite.

You have correct odds to call but its your tourney life on the line. A lot of people would fold and preserve their chips for a better spot. I think it depends on your attitude to getting chips early in a tourney. Do you gamble with correct odds, win, double up and start to build a big stack, (or lose and hit the cash tables - where this would surely be a mandatory call - wouldn"t it?)

I think a lot of pros would call here

Its a look at the watch for me here. I"d 50% call, 50%fold.

--- End quote ---


Isn"t that just a horrible situation?? In an online MTT under $50, it"s a call every time..... but in an APAT National, or perhaps something even bigger, it"s probably a fold more often than not. It"s funny how circumstance can influence decisions as much as the cards and play when it comes to calling a coin toss.

GiMac:
Fold. At the very best I think you are coin flipping here and if not you are virtually drawing dead. I think better places will arise where you can get your chips in.

deanp27:
some good responses so far, as i thought most people erring on the side of folding.

My initial read preflop was that she had 10s, Js or AK. I was sure she didn"t have KK or AA as she would have shoved on me preflop and initial raise was inconsistent with her previous raise with KK out of position against me. I do think 600 is an overraise in this situation despite a limper UTG and i dont think she wanted action.

I also think she couldn"t put me on a wide range. She had no reason to think that i was squeezing or reraising light as i had no previous form of this, plus it would be a ballsy move with such early position action in the hand.

Her flat call of my reraise more or less confirmed that my initial range was pretty bang on.

But as stated, even if i have her range spot on this is still a tough spot. I could be flipping here. I have the pot odds to call but should i turn down these spots and look for "better spots" with my 8k stack - i think this is at the crux of the analysis really.

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