Poker Forum > Strategy
Call or fold $30 cubed Stars
TheSnapper:
Calling or folding are really close, but this guy is gonna give us lots of opportunities to get it in a big fav, does taking a flip with him throw away our edge?
It is only 33% of our stack and he is somewhat likely to give it all back pretty soon if we do double him up, anyone consider that a factor?
You mention he had shoved a lot, were any of the other shoves 3b"s?
--- Quote from: Erimus on July 24, 2012, 19:42:04 PM ---
In this spot I would normally fold and find a less high variance spot, in this instance I called mainly because of his constant shoves, wasn"t a tilt call, I just felt it was right and could afford to take the hit plus if I win the hand it gives me more chance of winning it, something which I need to get in my game as I am becoming king of the min cashes at the moment.
--- End quote ---
This is kinda contradictory, you would normally fold theses high variance spots but called because of his constant shoves.
He needs to be shoving super wide for this to any better than a flip.
against: 22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J2s+,T2s+,94s+,84s+,74s+,64s+,54s,A2o+,K2o+,Q4o+,J6o+,T7o+,97o+,86o+,76o
which is 65% of hands we have 60%
but we are more likely facing: 22+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,A2o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo
~28% of hands and we have 48% versus that more likely range.
If you decided to call for reasons other than....
I"m well ahead of his range. ( That would be a misread imho )
I can afford to flip for a third of my stack and I need to embrace some variance.
Then it was more likely a tilty call cos he irritated you somewhat.
hi_am_chris:
Also there is a possibility he may three bet smaller with the very top end of his range to induce?
noble1:
the only thing i"d add to the thread is that villain has presumably open jammed utg and utg1
--- Quote ---he has pushed last couple of hands and has met no resistance.
--- End quote ---
into some big stacks..
with this in mind if we [as a big stack and whatever image] when we raise the button, considering his last 2 jams and your stack etc etc blah blah i wouldn"t instantly assume a really wide jam range.. plus he"ll be able to shove unopened pots again from maybe the sb or btn in the next 2 hands...
all on what assumptions u were making at the time [game dynamics etc etc blah blah :)]
mal666:
Call.
Take the rb before a card is dealt too. Take the add on.
AAroddersAA:
The fact he has pushed the last couple of hands with no resitance actually make it MORE likely he has a hand this time imo. Unless he has been doing this all the time.
Assuming he is a standard level Pokerstars player (which may be incorrect) I am assigning him the range of 66+,A8+,KT+ I don"t see he is doing this with JT or QJ types of hand too often. AK and AQ are actually a big part of his range, which may make a difference. So going with that pretty tight range we have 46%.
Blinds and Ante in Pot = 2775
Initial Bet = 2500
Shove = 20809
Total chips in pot = 26084
Total to call = 18309
Win pot 46% of time
Lose pot 54% of the time
46*26804 = 1232984
54*18309 = 988686
So long term we make 2442 chips per hand if we call. So calling is +cEV. So it looks like a call, not sure if ICM consideratiuons change this but don"t think they do in this spot.
Brendan whats the reason behind folding here mate? When I looked at it initially I thought it was a fold but then did some numbers and it looks like a call now. I should add I an hung over today so could be talking rubbish :-)
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