Poker Forum > Strategy

Call or fold $30 cubed Stars

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TheSnapper:

--- Quote from: AAroddersAA on July 25, 2012, 14:02:22 PM ---

Brendan whats the reason behind folding here mate? When I looked at it initially I thought it was a fold but then did some numbers and it looks like a call now. I should add I an hung over today so could be talking rubbish :-)


--- End quote ---


Tbh Steve, intuitively I felt it was close and did"nt like the idea of risking 20 bigs 16.64 bigs in such a marginal spot. It is an interesting spot but tbh I am much more interested in the factors we consider to arrive at our decision (teach a man to fish )

Happy to be corrected and fix a leak but I"ll need more than "snap fist pump call" to justify one action over another. My current position is based on the following factors I think are relevent.

Its a big bet to call off with KQs.
More than half the combos in his range are Ax.
Ax and pocket pairs account for nearly 75% of that range.
We are button on his BB, we will have ample opportunity to play pots with him and stack him.
Yes as you correctly point out, it"s a +ev spot but we risk 16.64 bigs for that 1.8 bigs so risk reward is a factor.

hi_am_chris:
If we call and lose it doesnt leave us desperate, calling and winning give us even more room to play aggressively and bully the table. Prefer to call here with kq than ace rag or a small pair, feel like we are going to be in good shape more often

WYoung83:
I would fold this quite comfortably, there is probably going to be easier chips to win at the table by stealing and c betting vs BB peels rather than take such a big variance shot.

noble1:
villain has to jam 15% plus to make raise call +cEV if going strictly by the maths.. anything less than 15% raise fold 2nd best option and believe it or not all in shove is the most cEV.. though when u do this no doubt the sb big stack will wake up with KK AA :)

deanp27:
On phone at work so difficult to do maths etc but do we need to be around 40% vs his range to make this call correct EV wise? If so turning down a flip situation is probably a mistake because our edge is unlikely to be huge at this stage and having a 20bb stack who likes shoving 2to our left is going to mean opportunities to exploit our perceived edge may be limited.

Alot depends on stage of tournament etc though and can accept why people would fold.

Open jamming is obv terrible though with the guy in the SB. Prefer open folding lol

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