Poker Forum > Strategy
PLO Cash hand
Fatcatstu:
We have 2 ifs outs for straight draws, so that just makes us stronger if he has that hand. More likely is middle or bottom set or a Raggy 2 pair I think,
AAroddersAA:
Just very quickly ran this through in Odds Oracle.
The flop raiser did just call preflop and on that board 2 pair is less likely than a set. He could have 2 pair but I think we are seeing 44 or QQ a lot more than two pair. Maybe he also has blocker to the flush draw, although again this bet is not saying that too me.
If we give the raiser a range of two pair and set type hands we are about 47%. If we think that he only does this with sets then we are only about 39%. I would be inclinded to say that he has all the sets in his range and Q3 and Q4 so we areprobably about 45% against him. I don"t see too much fold equity here either so it is a straight forward odds calculation. I don"t see many flush draws in his range here but even if he has a few the our EV increases.
Getting the money in on the flop is obviously +EV by the time you have added in a tiny bit of fold equity (them both folding is the but result obv) it"s pretty clear. I assume you can do the calculations yourself as I am to lazy tonight.
Santino67:
--- Quote from: AAroddersAA on December 18, 2012, 20:59:08 PM ---
Just very quickly ran this through in Odds Oracle.
The flop raiser did just call preflop and on that board 2 pair is less likely than a set. He could have 2 pair but I think we are seeing 44 or QQ a lot more than two pair. Maybe he also has blocker to the flush draw, although again this bet is not saying that too me.
If we give the raiser a range of two pair and set type hands we are about 47%. If we think that he only does this with sets then we are only about 39%. I would be inclinded to say that he has all the sets in his range and Q3 and Q4 so we areprobably about 45% against him. I don"t see too much fold equity here either so it is a straight forward odds calculation. I don"t see many flush draws in his range here but even if he has a few the our EV increases.
Getting the money in on the flop is obviously +EV by the time you have added in a tiny bit of fold equity (them both folding is the but result obv) it"s pretty clear. I assume you can do the calculations yourself as I am to lazy tonight.
--- End quote ---
This is where I struggle Steve, especially in PLO. I can generally calculate percentage of my outs to hit but when that clock"s running down and I assume a range of 33, 44 or QQ then I"m also dodging any pair on board into the bargain. I very quickly figured there"s no fold equity against the big raise, he"s calling regardless IMO. The initial small bet on the flop by the other player suggests a weak holding or reasonable draw looking to see another card so I"m not concerned with him at all. I"m not even considering calling this, hit heart on turn could kill any action, missed heart or paired board would probably leave me spewing with a horrid decision. So with my draws it"s either fold or jam.
Total flop return would mean it costs me $8.74 to win the $10.74 pot. Are my odds good enough here, especially against an assumed set?
AAroddersAA:
I have not checked the figures but I am sure you are correct. Just work out if you make a profit over 100 hands. I will need to check this in the morning tbh as I am not very awake *lol*
Assuming he does this with any two pair combo that he has somehow flopped, it does happen in PLO and sets as well then we will win the pot 47% of the time.
So 53% of the time we lose $8.74 and 47% of the time we win 10.74 assuming he always has either two pair or a set and never folds (which is close to worst case).
$8.74*53=$462.69
10.74*47=$504.78
So we make $42.09 ovcer 100 hands by shoving from this spot. That works out to $4.21 per hand which is a massive profit.
Fatcatstu:
Like i said, get your chips in :)
Dont need all this fancy odds calculating malarky, just trust your gut :p
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