Poker Forum > Strategy
Hand from Today, what is best now?
AAroddersAA:
Happy New Year Everybody
Thought we would start the year off with a good strategy post. I think this is quite an interesting spot that I played today. Still not sure what the best thing to do in this spot is.
The Background
The original raiser in this pot is a reg in the zoom poker pool who basically pretty tight preflop. I only have 70 hands on him but he is playing 18/15 with and he has folded to 3-bets 6 times out of 7. His fold to c-bet is also 85%. The SB in the hand is also a reg who is basically really tight, playing 9/4 over ~50 hands. The sample sizes are not massive but give us enough info to go on with. The plan was I would 3-bet and everybody would fold, if somebody called I can control the pot with my position and have a good chance of winning the pot even if I miss. I was pretty sure the OR would 4-bet a premium hand. I am playing 23/21 with a 3-bet of 8% I think that there is a decnt chance these guy"s would know this. I also have a player note on one of them that may be relevant to this hand.
*---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hero (BTN): $14.29
SB: $18.83 (There is a note that says "will lead out with a set on wet flop")
BB: $8.00
UTG: $29.33
MP: $9.85 (No player notes)
CO: $4.87
SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10
Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has Jc Kd
fold, MP raises to $0.30, fold, Hero raises to $1.10, SB calls $1.05, fold, MP calls $0.80
Flop: ($3.40, 3 players) 5d Kh Js
*---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OK so the SB being in the hand was not in the plan but I ma not too worried then the flop comes down and I hit top two pair. I plan to just cbet this anyway as there are two of them and they could have AK here. I basically expect them both to check to me and then if they have AK they will either raise or call, either is fine. KQ might do the same. The most likely hand that beats me here is 55 but I am not worrying about that at all at the moment.
*---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SB bets $1.70,
MP raises to $3.40,
*---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So it gets to me with a bet and a raise froim two really tight players. What hands can they have that beat me. Well neither of them can REALLY have Kings enough to make it worth worrying about. They can both have JJ and they both have 55 in their ranges now. JJ and KK are even less likely as I am holding blockers. 55 is possible. One of them could have AK or KQ perhaps but how can I be ahead of both of them now?
So what do you think of the following:-
a) What are both players ranges at this point.
b) What is the best thing to do here
c) How have I played the hand up to now are their any mistakes in there?
hi_am_chris:
If they are that tight are they both definitely raise calling or cold calling with 55 all the time?
AAroddersAA:
--- Quote from: hi_am_chris on January 01, 2013, 17:31:07 PM ---
If they are that tight are they both definitely raise calling or cold calling with 55 all the time?
--- End quote ---
Obviously I know what they both had but pretending I did not.......
I would say no to be honest. I would think 55 is less likely for the SB as the original raiser may call with 55 to try and set mine incorrectly. Think they would both get it in with KK so they can"t have that. unsure about JJ but it seems reasonable to call a 3-bet with this hand. I have a J blocker but do have blocker blocker action here?
TheSnapper:
--- Quote from: AAroddersAA on January 01, 2013, 15:54:32 PM ---
So what do you think of the following:-
a) What are both players ranges at this point.
b) What is the best thing to do here
c) How have I played the hand up to now are their any mistakes in there?
--- End quote ---
SB: JJ+,AKs,AKo
OR: KK+,JJ,55,AKs,AKo
edit; 3b tendencies for sb may help refining range. He may not ever flat AA and KK but seems very passive 9 / 4
Jam, but it is a high variance spot so okay to fold if you tilt easily or are playing under rolled.
You are in position otb so 3b size smaller to $0.90 it finds the same folds as $1.10 and saves us 2 bb's when we run into the top of his range
Waz1892:
Grrrr posted and battery ran out!!
My thoughts in essence.
SB calling 2 raises rules out 55
MP getting action from 2 following his raise and only calling rules out Kk.
So only fearing his JJ. Ce la ve if so.
Pot bet for me, and calling any raise
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