Poker Forum > Strategy
Play by Play - day by day
Waz1892:
--- Quote from: TheSnapper on January 05, 2013, 16:00:48 PM ---
--- Quote from: Waz1892 on January 05, 2013, 14:32:40 PM ---
if we bet and they fold, OK we win the hand right here, but we"ve won a small pot with a big hand. Surely that isn"t the agenda when you hit a big flop?
how scared are we/should we be of the 2 hearts?
--- End quote ---
Your thinking is way off here Waz, take a stab at what range of hands villain defends with preflop?
--- End quote ---
Why is it way off? I"m asking passively!
Small pair themselves, or Qc Jh+ Ac 10h+ at worse. Less then AQ tho.
--- Quote from: Jon MW on January 05, 2013, 15:27:03 PM ---
--- Quote from: Waz1892 on January 05, 2013, 14:32:40 PM ---
--- Quote from: Santino67 on January 05, 2013, 13:38:48 PM ---
Have to bet when you hit, wasn"t that the plan? Against only one opponent you"re hoping he"s planning a check raise with an ace, and flop"s a bit wet tbh. Stick 50p in there and start building that pot.
--- End quote ---
if we bet and they fold, OK we win the hand right here, but we"ve won a small pot with a big hand. Surely that isn"t the agenda when you hit a big flop?
how scared are we/should we be of the 2 hearts?
--- End quote ---
And if we check behind, say a blank arrives on the turn and it gets checked to you again -are you checking again?
If they have nothing they"ll probably fold to the first bet, if they have something they"ll probably call a flop bet anyway.
--- End quote ---
If they check again, then bet and take it down, but at least you"ve given yourself a chance to win a bigger pot?
they ck the flop...by betting you"re winning $0.70 (assuming its not a ck raise)
you ck, giving them a chance to catch up or bluff at it with a blank turn
turn blank ck bet (we are no worse off and win $0.70)
bet, bet - (winning more - gamble on no heart)
bet raise (winning more)
defo raise preflop (not many favourable flops)
when you hit -bingo..... now make our monster pay off.
my only question/arguement to this is how often does he have 2 hearts, and then hits and how often do we miss hitting the fh anyway.
AAroddersAA:
Good post Waz (also by JonMW) and everybody really. Loving the discussion and think we should try and get more threads of this kind in this section as I know I find them very helpful to my game and I have no doubt other people do as well. Really makes you think which then helps you in the actual game.
So anyway to respond to the points (in my opinion) at this stage of the hand we usually have the best hand. I want to win a big pot and there is an ace on the flop for everybody to see. The only hand I am winning a big pot from is a hand that has an ace in it. The hands that he can defend from the BB here are:-
Pairs between like 66-99. I would be really surprised if TT+ did not 3-bet. Then you have hands in his range like ATos and AJos and most likely A2s-ATs. AQ and AK are almost certain to 3-bet I would assume. Then we have hands like KQ, KJ, JQ and suited connectors. To be honest people call really wide in button vs blind spots in these games. I would actually expect this guy to 3-bet me more than call so that is a bit strange I admit, why would you just flat against a LAGish player who opens every unopened button and c-bets lots, sometimes even double barrels? He should know that I don"t have to have the ace here and can quite easily be raising with air and will cbet this flop almost 100% of the time (he should know that does not mean he 100% does).
I would expect to get called or maybe even raised by plenty of his ace combos and called by a lot of pairs between 66 and JJ. There is a LOT of hand combos in there we are getting value from by betting. If he has nothing to call on the flop the vast majority of time he will have nothing to call with on the turn either. He may try and rep the ace or hit a little piece and call a bet but we will still only win a small pot, not a big one. To win a bigger pot we need to start building it now as hands like AT and some smaller aces may well give us 3 streets of value here. Also by betting the flop the flush draw can give us two streets of value and we control the size of the pot as we are in position. The issue is what does he hit on the turn that means that we are now able to win a big pot off him where we could not do so on the flop. The only thing I can think of is a two when he is holding 22.
Oh the hand gets more interesting as well go along but this stage is still giving us some really good discussion.
For me though having read all the responses it is still a bet at this point. I am still betting 60c. Obviously would love to hear other views.
--- Quote from: Fatcatstu on January 05, 2013, 16:11:40 PM ---
If has a flush draw and hits it, we are unlucky, but I would rather take it slowly on this wet a board and see how it pans out rather than just pump money in and lose more if the board gets worse. A bit nitty I know, but we don"t need to play for stacks on this type of board where we aren"t going to like a lot of turns?
--- End quote ---
I agree we don"t want stacks in Stu, but we do want more money in the pot surely we get called by so many hands we beat we just have to bet. We have control of the hand so can probably slow it down later if we feel we need too.
By the way what if the board was:-
c3-8s-Ah
Are you now more or less happy to be pumping money into the pot?
dwh103:
Pre: 3xing, folding to a short stack 3b (unless it"s a click 3b) and peeling against a big stack 3b. If called will be cbetting 80-90% (prob check/give up on QJT type boards).
Post:
If Villain has:
- Monster (set/2 pair). He"ll call/raise/bet regardless of our actions. With such a narrow range beating us, I don"t even think about it at this stage. Turn may slow down some two pair hands, therefore we should bet.
- Mediocre-Strong (i.e AQ). He will call/raise flop. It is more likely that subsequent cards will hinder rather than encourage action, so we should bet now.
- Mediocre-Weak (weaker Ax, underpairs). He will call/fold flop. If he"s planning on folding flop with this type of hand, he"ll probably fold turn too without improving. Check doesn"t gain us anything outside of allowing underpairs a free shot to draw out and Ax to get away on an unpleasant turn. We should bet now in the hope he"s check/calling.
- Draw. He will call/raise flop. If he"s calling, we obviously want to charge him for the privilege, and if he"s raising, well we"d love to get it in. Obviously we hate life if it goes bet/call and a heart turns. But for now, it"s bet, bet, bet.
- Air. He will fold flop. Fold turn unless unimproved. May take a stab on some turns, with a negligible CR bluff % on the flop. Checking is obviously better here if he"s miles behind, but you gain so little value it"s just not worth it - you may get one street if he bluffs or catches 2nd pair. You give up the chance to get real value for a fair portion of his range.
So this isn"t difficult. Bet, and reasonably big. There would need to be a specific opponent or metagame for a check back to be better here. So 60c is pretty much spot on imo. SB stats would suggest he"s reasonably competent and appropriately aggressive at this level. Probably fair to assume he has some idea about what he"s doing and won"t suddenly be completely random.
AAroddersAA:
Good post Dave. I think we are ready for the next action tbh I was going to leave it until tomorrow but we have had lots of discussion and the general consensus seems to be bet out strongly. So OK, Here Goes, it get more interesting here imo
PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) ZOOM - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3: http://www.pokertracker.com
Hero (BTN): $37.67
SB: $42.41
BB: $5.10
UTG: $10.70
MP: $10.27
CO: $7.55
SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10
Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has 3d 3h
fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.30, SB calls $0.25, fold
Flop: ($0.70, 2 players) 5h 3c Ah
SB checks, Hero bets $0.60, SB raises to $1.90, Hero calls ???
OK, what does he have what are you doing what is your plan for future action?
TheSnapper:
--- Quote from: Waz1892 on January 05, 2013, 17:22:53 PM ---
--- Quote from: TheSnapper on January 05, 2013, 16:00:48 PM ---
--- Quote from: Waz1892 on January 05, 2013, 14:32:40 PM ---
if we bet and they fold, OK we win the hand right here, but we"ve won a small pot with a big hand. Surely that isn"t the agenda when you hit a big flop?
how scared are we/should we be of the 2 hearts?
--- End quote ---
Your thinking is way off here Waz, take a stab at what range of hands villain defends with preflop?
--- End quote ---
Why is it way off? I"m asking passively!
Small pair themselves, or Qc Jh+ Ac 10h+ at worse. Less then AQ tho.
--- End quote ---
So a range of ..
99-22,AJo-ATo,KQo-KJo,QJo,AJs-ATs,KQs-KJs,QJs, which is a total of 111 combo's allowing for card removal, seems reasonable.
Lets break down how that range hits on the flop of Ah5h3c
55 for a set 3 combo's = 2.7% of villains range
AT & AJ for top pair 24 combos = 21.6% of villains range
66-99 for a pocket pair facing one overcard 24 combos= 21.6% of villains range
22 & 44 for a weak pair and gutshot 12 combos = 10.8% of villains range
QJhh, KJhh & KQhh for a flushdraw 3 combos = 2.7% of villains range
That's a total of 63 combos or a massive 56.7% of villains range that we beat and can reasonably expect to call a flop bet.
55 is a cooler and we will inevitably lose a big pot to that 2.7% of villains range but hey some spots play themselves.
The part of villains range you seem to want to target is......
QJ, KJ & KQ that are not suited and hearts, that is 48 combos = 43.2% of villains range.
Villain will check raise bluff with these hands >0% of the time when we cbet so they do constitute some value.
So that leaves the times we check back the flop so we can extract a single bet when these hands catch a non heart K,Q or J turn. Hardly oozing value!!
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