Poker Forum > Strategy
pokerpops:
--- Quote from: TheSnapper on February 20, 2013, 02:10:09 AM ---
--- Quote from: david3103 on February 19, 2013, 22:27:58 PM ---
It was something "in the moment" tbh. I had the button, the stack, a hand that can flop really well, and generally not put me in the horns of a dilemma, and given this guy has only just arrived i also had the old guy image so I expect him to fold virtually zero because he plans on outplaying me postflop, so he"ll flat most of his range and 4bet the very top end, say JJ+, AQ+ and possibly the rubbish.
He has nothing to use to get to a range for me other than image (true for me of him too, but the kidz are easier to spot aren"t they) but he"s expecting me to be strong.
--- End quote ---
This bit confuses me, villain is decent, oop and due to your "old guy image" expects you to have a strong range. Yet you think villain will "flat most of his range and 4bet the very top end, say JJ+, AQ+ and possibly the rubbish."
Surely if villain is decent, oop and expects you to have a strong range. He should never ever 3b lite excepting he reads your small 3b as weak.
Given you expect to be called 100% then your 3b is not a bluff right?
How did you see the hand would develop in a way that you could profit?
edit to add: Please hold off on posting results.
--- End quote ---
Let"s consider villain"s attitude here, as I read it. He"s just arrived at the table and he believes he"s the best player at the table (he"s slumming it at £1/£1 and he may or may not be right). He wants to get involved.
I was really feeling it on the night, and there"s a lot of run outs where I can win the hand regardless of my holding. I can fold to a 4bet, and if the OR calls then I"m very sure the guy between us calls too.
I can win the pot on a lot of flops with a c-bet but having hit the flop this hard I"m going to be disappointed if they both fold now.
Obviously flop and turn bet-sizing are open to discussion.
Are we all still folding the river btw?
AAroddersAA:
I am obviously going to agree that we have not enough info on our opponent here. My thoughts with what we have are as follows:-
Preflop
Don"t like the squeeze play much if we are not expecting to get folds and are in fact expecting three way action. For me this would be a reason not to squeeze. I may flat as we are deep enough but probably fold tbh.
Flop
On the flop we have created a pot of £54 and have hit top two. Now just using the info we have we though that our opponent was going to try and outplay us post flop and have another guy in the pot too. The flop does have potential for some kind of draw hand to be out. I am going to bet £40, this gives the guy a chance to try and outplay us. If he raises and the other guy folds I would most likely flat and look to get it in OTT. This gives him a chance to continue to fire his air on the turn and as we are in position we can still bet if he gives up and checks. The £40 also let"s draws call without the correct odds. Obviously it is live poker so somebody with a Jack is going to call us as well.
Turn
As played on the turn we have a pot of £120. Now at this point what is our opponents hand range? They have called a 3 bet pre and a weak looking c-bet. What would do that?
Hands that include a Jack? AJ, JQ, JT, KJ Maybe
Sets - not likely as you have blockers and they did not try to get in on flop
Stubborn pairs? Nope not seeing many of these in their range
Various str8 draws
I think the turn card is pretty bad for or hand, we go behind to a lot of hands that may have called on the flop. I don"t mind the bet as it means we keep the initiative in the hand and may get to showdown cheaply. I think I may check though and see what the river brings given the info I have I still think he may bluff the river at this point and I have to fold if I get raised and can end up in a tricky spot on the river if I am called. I am not too sure how often I get called by something I beat. I suppose AJ calls and JT which has now picked up a draw calls too.
River
The river is a terrible card, he bets basically half the pot, we have 3/1 on the call which is not good enough. Feels like he has a ten and although his two pair type hands should check/call they still beat us so we can"t call.
It is a fold for me
noble1:
theres a few 100bb taggy type thoughts in the thread imho..
yeah u can argue that the 3bet pre sizing is to small, which is why i prefer to cbet pot"ish on dry"ish flops if using this strategy, we are so polarised [as eff stacks get deeper our cbetting range will naturally become more polarised] and at this level of play i"d expect villains to still peel a fair bit of crap..
David , u say u wanted to get value now that u had flopped top 2pair, tbh thats hand versus range thinking and tbf its ok to think like that at low levels BUT if say there are some decent players at the table or u take a shot in the future at higher stakes then u have to get to the stage where u are thinking range versus range...
what i mean with the polarised thingy is that on the flop we are no longer bet calling with hands that we might stack off with.. and if u are correctly opening your game up in deep eff situations and your 3bet frequency is higher then u have to think the long term with your range, its up to u on how u want to construct your cbet strategy on various flop textures and which ones u check back etc...
back to the polarised theory - as a rule of thumb when your ratio of bluffs to value in your range is wide then its best to bet bigger, when your ratio of bluffs to value is super narrow then bets should be smaller...
for instance in this spot, villain x/c"s flop and turn then leads out for way to much imho, its that sort of texture where u"d expect his bluffs to be near non existent, and to a std thinking half decent hand reader they will fold just about everything barring a ten, so villain should of bet smaller shouldn"t he? then the odd times he does bluff those will be cheaper and when betting for value [smaller sizing] he will still get u to call a fair chunk of your range.. [i hope that makes sense]
so from what u infer about him and that he"s supposed to be decent, if he can hand read your perceived range then on the turn he may well of decided to bluff at this point on spade rivers and/or decided to also rep the str8 draw.. because his sizing on the river sucks [unless of course he thinks ur a total idiot and cant fold a set no matter what :-*]
TheSnapper:
--- Quote from: noble1 on February 20, 2013, 13:31:31 PM ---
so from what u infer about him and that he"s supposed to be decent, if he can hand read your perceived range then on the turn he may well of decided to bluff at this point on spade rivers and/or decided to also rep the str8 draw.. because his sizing on the river sucks [unless of course he thinks ur a total idiot and cant fold a set no matter what :-*]
--- End quote ---
Good point Mark and why I asked David to stall on posting results.
The river spot is one where reads can make this a snap fold or snap call depending on how thin villain is prepared to value bet. Some players will only value bet a flush here so their range is polarised nuts or air, by my reckoning only As9s or AsTs, 2 combos can have got to the river and now be a flush+ so I snap call.
Since villain is deemed to be decent (this doesnt always mean he will value bet the river with non nutted hands) he may well vb 2 pair+ assuming he gets to the river with a range of QQ-88,66,AJo,KQo,AJs-A9s,KQs-KJs,QJs thats 68% of his range.
If he classifies his 2 pr hands as bluff catchers and only vb"s sets+, it changes our equity a lot.
Villain bets £105 and the pot is now £295 so we need 36% to breakeven.
Versus his entire river range we have 32% equity
Versus sets+ and air QQ-88,66,AJo,AJs-A9s we have 44% equity and villain has air ~44% of the time.
Cliffs: I call the river bet
TheSnapper:
--- Quote from: david3103 ---
Let"s consider villain"s attitude here, as I read it. He"s just arrived at the table and he believes he"s the best player at the table (he"s slumming it at £1/£1 and he may or may not be right). He wants to get involved.
--- End quote ---
You may well be totally correct but that's a pretty strong read considering "He"s just arrived at the table"
--- Quote from: david3103 ---
I was really feeling it on the night, and there"s a lot of run outs where I can win the hand regardless of my holding. I can fold to a 4bet, and if the OR calls then I"m very sure the guy between us calls too.
I can win the pot on a lot of flops with a c-bet.
--- End quote ---
Tbh this looks like the sort of thinking I lapse into often myself, usually its through over-confidence and I invariably end up levelling myself for lots of $$$, I now call it reinventing good play. I"m pretty sure its a place most of us have visited once or twice :"(
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