Poker Forum > Strategy
Is this an unnecessary risk?
Jon MW:
Just to prove I"m not a complete rock - I provide for your perusal a bluff.
My 2 questions for the assembled expertise are:
(1) Is this an unnecessary risk given the situation?
(2) Any idea on what the other 2 players in the hand were holding?
(I want other peoples ideas then I can say what I was thinking and see if the bluff "makes sense" in terms of my analysis)
$10 + $1
Table 1 - 50/100 - No Limit Hold'em
Seat 2: beloved_ltd (4,890)
Seat 6: eph-awph (2,485) - Button
Seat 7: rus88 (1,290) - SB - posts 50
Seat 8: bobrobert (2,750) - BB - posts 100
Seat 9: damnxx (2,085)
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to beloved_ltd [ 9d qc]
damnxx calls 100
beloved_ltd calls 100
eph-awph and rus 88 fold
bobrobert checks
*** FLOP *** [th 5c ks]
bobrobert checks
damnxx checks
beloved_ltd bets 350
bobrobert calls 350
damnxx calls 350
*** TURN *** [th 5c ks] [5s]
bobrobert checks
damnxx checks
beloved_ltd has 15 seconds left to act
beloved_ltd bets 650
bobrobert calls 650
damnxx calls 650
*** RIVER *** [th 5c ks 5s] [7c]
bobrobert has 15 seconds left to act
bobrobert checks
damnxx checks
beloved_ltd has 15 seconds left to act
beloved_ltd has requested TIME
beloved_ltd bets 3,790, and is all in
bobrobert has 15 seconds left to act
bobrobert folds
damnxx folds
Uncalled bet of 3,790 returned to beloved_ltd
beloved_ltd mucks
beloved_ltd wins the pot (3,350)
George2Loose:
Heads up it makes sense. You can put your opponent on QJ/weak K maybe even middle pair.
In all honesty it"s a horrible bluff which you somehow got away with!
Board is rainbow so draws are unlikely on the flop. Then a 5 hits which could have filled someone up.
Personally I would switch off on the river. However with 2 checks to you I can see why you shoved.
Jon MW:
--- Quote from: George2Loose on April 13, 2008, 21:55:54 PM ---
...
In all honesty it"s a horrible bluff which you somehow got away with!
...
--- End quote ---
This is what I thought in hindsight - I did do some analysis at the time, but I think I was mainly just getting annoyed at them being so passive and not check raising me.
kinboshi:
Depends on how the other players have played and how you think they"ll play.
Zanshin:
With a lot of pre-flop limping going on the hand ranges are... well pretty much anything.
When no one shows any interest in the flop it's certainly worth a bet , especially as you're chip leader (personally I would have bet slightly less here).
With both players now calling it's time to rethink the hand.
You have represented some sort of hand here by betting. If you had only one caller it could be possible that he thinks you're at it and is planning to take you off the hand. Once you get a 2nd caller then someone has a hand or is on a decent draw.
At this point I'd have at least one of them on JQ with the other still on quite a wide range.
The 5 on the turn gives you the opportunity to represent trips but I don't see how that is going to be believed. You would have to have called pre-flop with something like a suited A5 and tried to steal on the flop.
So your turn bet is still looking like you have a K, are being brave (stubborn) with a 10 or your bluffing.
When you bet out and again get two callers I'm now thinking they are possibly both on straight draws with a chance one may be trapping with a set. I think a weak K here or a 10 would have given up now with two others interested in the pot.
When the river comes a blank and it's checked by the others you are left with bluffing or accepting you loses as I can't see you Q9 taking the pot on a showdown.
To be honest I think if I'd taken it this far I'd push the rest of the way and hope they have both missed their draws or that they now panic with their weak K or 10 and finally believe you have a hand.
Of course that's the way I go out of to many tournaments.. :-[
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