Poker Forum > Strategy
DTD Grand Prix Day 1a Decision
dwh103:
--- Quote from: Chipaccrual on March 13, 2013, 10:28:03 AM ---
Question for those that are folding the hand in the OP.
What range of cards would I need to have to make it a call for you, or is it a case of being unable to put him on a range, and therefore the risk of losing that amount of chips makes it a fold unless i"ve got kings or aces ?
--- End quote ---
Unless the villain has exhibited any tendencies otherwise, you should approach with a conservative mindset. Pushbot Spreadsheet http://www.mediafire.com/?l1zlilcyjoj is worth having a play round with.
You have to call 87.5k more into a 102k pot. If Villain is shoving:
Top 7.5% (88+, ATs+, AJo+, KQs) - AJs is a -cEV call
Top 11% (55+,A8s+,KQs,ATo+,KQo) - AJs is marginally +cEV (less than a 2% ROI on your chip investment)
Do you have any evidence/feeling to suggest Villain is shoving any wider? If yes, then you still need to consider the ICM implications - they always exist. And then you have the BB to act behind you. And your chip position is more than comfortable. It"s still a very easy fold for me.
Gordon"s calling range is about right against an 11% shove range, giving you a 15%+ cROI.
There is and has been so much written about push/fold, aggression etc that blindly shoving 10-20BBs has become ingrained and a habit in many players. The biggest leak around imo, even in decent players, is incorrectly valuing stack size.
Of course if +2% ROI is the best spot you think you can obtain because you"re a fish (;)) - call away. Though against a DTD field you"re definitely better than that!
deanp27:
--- Quote from: david3103 on March 13, 2013, 00:18:28 AM ---
There are 20 left, we"re playing down to 14 and we"ve already secured a £60 token for another attempt (I have a second Golden Chip anyway but the token may have a value if I play again online on Thursday)
***** Hand History for Game 1111111111 ***** (IPoker)
Tourney Hand NL Texas Hold'em - Wednesday, March 13, 12:04:59 ET 2013
Table Dusk GP Final Online Day 1c 801927327 (Real Money)
Seat 8 is the button
Seat 1: Player1 ( 303509 ) - VPIP: 34, PFR: 34, 3B: 13, AF: 2.0, Hands: 53
Seat 2: Player2 ( 192500 ) - VPIP: 30, PFR: 13, 3B: 5, AF: 2.5, Hands: 90
Seat 3: Hero ( 120431 ) - VPIP: 17, PFR: 11, 3B: 6, AF: 2.0, Hands: 3496
Seat 5: Player5 ( 241611 ) - VPIP: 18, PFR: 16, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 90
Seat 6: Player6 ( 140284 ) - VPIP: 13, PFR: 4, 3B: 7, AF: 0.0, Hands: 24
Seat 8: Player8 ( 55946 ) - VPIP: 7, PFR: 5, 3B: 3, AF: 0.0, Hands: 76
Seat 9: Player9 ( 54066 ) - VPIP: 11, PFR: 3, 3B: 0, AF: 1.0, Hands: 36
Player9 posts ante of [500].
Player1 posts ante of [500].
Player2 posts ante of [500].
Hero posts ante of [500].
Player5 posts ante of [500].
Player6 posts ante of [500].
Player8 posts ante of [500].
Player9 posts small blind [2500].
Player1 posts big blind [5000].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ x x ]
Player2 folds
Hero raises [11000]
Player5 folds
Player6 raises [139784]
Player8 folds
Player9 folds
Player1 folds
Hero..........
Range to call ?
--- End quote ---
Maybe Ak TT+ but also important to stress that you shouldn"t be opening that much wider with the stack sizes behind you and a 24bb stack imo
pokerpops:
--- Quote from: dwh103 on March 13, 2013, 20:24:43 PM ---
--- Quote from: Chipaccrual on March 13, 2013, 10:28:03 AM ---
Question for those that are folding the hand in the OP.
What range of cards would I need to have to make it a call for you, or is it a case of being unable to put him on a range, and therefore the risk of losing that amount of chips makes it a fold unless i"ve got kings or aces ?
--- End quote ---
Unless the villain has exhibited any tendencies otherwise, you should approach with a conservative mindset. Pushbot Spreadsheet http://www.mediafire.com/?l1zlilcyjoj is worth having a play round with.
You have to call 87.5k more into a 102k pot. If Villain is shoving:
Top 7.5% (88+, ATs+, AJo+, KQs) - AJs is a -cEV call
Top 11% (55+,A8s+,KQs,ATo+,KQo) - AJs is marginally +cEV (less than a 2% ROI on your chip investment)
Do you have any evidence/feeling to suggest Villain is shoving any wider? If yes, then you still need to consider the ICM implications - they always exist. And then you have the BB to act behind you. And your chip position is more than comfortable. It"s still a very easy fold for me.
Gordon"s calling range is about right against an 11% shove range, giving you a 15%+ cROI.
There is and has been so much written about push/fold, aggression etc that blindly shoving 10-20BBs has become ingrained and a habit in many players. The biggest leak around imo, even in decent players, is incorrectly valuing stack size.
Of course if +2% ROI is the best spot you think you can obtain because you"re a fish (;)) - call away. Though against a DTD field you"re definitely better than that!
--- End quote ---
Do you really think that Mr Tilty McTilt is shoving as tight as 11% here?
I agree that the decision is tight, but the problem with constructing ranges is that all too often in hand analysis threads it seems we construct a range that suits our view of the decision, rather than constructing a range and then seeing where that leads us.
In a vacuum, for an unknown, in a standard comp, no arguments. He should be around that 11% mark - I might actually lower that and take out 55/66/77
In this comp, in this moment with the dynamic of approaching the 10% mark/end of Day 1 and having a re-entry option? 11%?
pokerpops:
--- Quote from: deanp27 on March 13, 2013, 21:42:22 PM ---
--- Quote from: david3103 on March 13, 2013, 00:18:28 AM ---
There are 20 left, we"re playing down to 14 and we"ve already secured a £60 token for another attempt (I have a second Golden Chip anyway but the token may have a value if I play again online on Thursday)
***** Hand History for Game 1111111111 ***** (IPoker)
Tourney Hand NL Texas Hold'em - Wednesday, March 13, 12:04:59 ET 2013
Table Dusk GP Final Online Day 1c 801927327 (Real Money)
Seat 8 is the button
Seat 1: Player1 ( 303509 ) - VPIP: 34, PFR: 34, 3B: 13, AF: 2.0, Hands: 53
Seat 2: Player2 ( 192500 ) - VPIP: 30, PFR: 13, 3B: 5, AF: 2.5, Hands: 90
Seat 3: Hero ( 120431 ) - VPIP: 17, PFR: 11, 3B: 6, AF: 2.0, Hands: 3496
Seat 5: Player5 ( 241611 ) - VPIP: 18, PFR: 16, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 90
Seat 6: Player6 ( 140284 ) - VPIP: 13, PFR: 4, 3B: 7, AF: 0.0, Hands: 24
Seat 8: Player8 ( 55946 ) - VPIP: 7, PFR: 5, 3B: 3, AF: 0.0, Hands: 76
Seat 9: Player9 ( 54066 ) - VPIP: 11, PFR: 3, 3B: 0, AF: 1.0, Hands: 36
Player9 posts ante of [500].
Player1 posts ante of [500].
Player2 posts ante of [500].
Hero posts ante of [500].
Player5 posts ante of [500].
Player6 posts ante of [500].
Player8 posts ante of [500].
Player9 posts small blind [2500].
Player1 posts big blind [5000].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ x x ]
Player2 folds
Hero raises [11000]
Player5 folds
Player6 raises [139784]
Player8 folds
Player9 folds
Player1 folds
Hero..........
Range to call ?
--- End quote ---
Maybe Ak TT+ but also important to stress that you shouldn"t be opening that much wider with the stack sizes behind you and a 24bb stack imo
--- End quote ---
meh - ignore this hand. I"ll put the 50p in the Comic Relief tin. He shipped 55, I snapped with KK.
AMRN:
--- Quote from: david3103 on March 14, 2013, 09:19:33 AM ---
--- Quote from: dwh103 on March 13, 2013, 20:24:43 PM ---
--- Quote from: Chipaccrual on March 13, 2013, 10:28:03 AM ---
Question for those that are folding the hand in the OP.
What range of cards would I need to have to make it a call for you, or is it a case of being unable to put him on a range, and therefore the risk of losing that amount of chips makes it a fold unless i"ve got kings or aces ?
--- End quote ---
Unless the villain has exhibited any tendencies otherwise, you should approach with a conservative mindset. Pushbot Spreadsheet http://www.mediafire.com/?l1zlilcyjoj is worth having a play round with.
You have to call 87.5k more into a 102k pot. If Villain is shoving:
Top 7.5% (88+, ATs+, AJo+, KQs) - AJs is a -cEV call
Top 11% (55+,A8s+,KQs,ATo+,KQo) - AJs is marginally +cEV (less than a 2% ROI on your chip investment)
Do you have any evidence/feeling to suggest Villain is shoving any wider? If yes, then you still need to consider the ICM implications - they always exist. And then you have the BB to act behind you. And your chip position is more than comfortable. It"s still a very easy fold for me.
Gordon"s calling range is about right against an 11% shove range, giving you a 15%+ cROI.
There is and has been so much written about push/fold, aggression etc that blindly shoving 10-20BBs has become ingrained and a habit in many players. The biggest leak around imo, even in decent players, is incorrectly valuing stack size.
Of course if +2% ROI is the best spot you think you can obtain because you"re a fish (;)) - call away. Though against a DTD field you"re definitely better than that!
--- End quote ---
Do you really think that Mr Tilty McTilt is shoving as tight as 11% here?
I agree that the decision is tight, but the problem with constructing ranges is that all too often in hand analysis threads it seems we construct a range that suits our view of the decision, rather than constructing a range and then seeing where that leads us.
In a vacuum, for an unknown, in a standard comp, no arguments. He should be around that 11% mark - I might actually lower that and take out 55/66/77
In this comp, in this moment with the dynamic of approaching the 10% mark/end of Day 1 and having a re-entry option? 11%?
--- End quote ---
How wide do you think David? 15%? 20%? I suspect that even then, from a mathematical ICM standpoint, a call would still be relatively marginal (Hope Gordon will do the math on that though)
Navigation
[0] Message Index
[#] Next page
[*] Previous page
Go to full version