Poker Forum > Strategy
DTD Grand Prix Day 1a Decision
GiMac:
I might also point out that we have no information on the villain apart from the fact that he lost the previous hand in a fairly standard hand vs a short stack. So this assumption that he must be tilt shoving is flawed imho too. In fact something I often do is if I am dealt a monster immediately after losing a pot is to open shove to make it look tilty so someone calls me off with a marginal hand like erm lets see AJ? ;)
AAroddersAA:
Best thread of the year so far
btw - does anybody think we could actually be behind his range here, I have been assuming everybody agrees we are ahead in this spot? I have not played one of these so how do they play?
Constructing the range is what hand analysis is all about and getting the correct one pretty much tells us if a call is +cEV or not. Yes we can add in ICM too but at this point (and in most spots) I am going with cEV over ICM (ICM shows why you should not gamble large numbers of chips in marginal spots, how marginal is this spot though?). Maybe I spend too much time playing cash lol.
We have construct our range without a lot of info here, so we have to go to a lot of "default thinking" (I just that term up by the way) so I would be thinking:-
1) It looks like a tilt shove, therefore that is probably what it is. Yes he could know that and turn over AA but in poker things are usually exactly as they seem. This looks like a tilt shove and most of the time it is. I would widen his range here.
2) I don"t think he does this with AA or KK much so I would lessen the amount of combos of those hands in his range.
3) It looks a LOT like something he would do with AK and maybe a hand like 88 or 99.
I don"t believe a player in this spot is shoving as tight as 11% (although I am not sure why he shoved tbh I think with that stack you can make a standard 2.2x raise).
I therefore put him on something like 77+ and KJs+ and AT+
I am therefore calling with AJo+ and TT+ I think we can actually remove the AA and KK and maybe even some QQ combos from his range which make a difference as a lot of the hands that dominate us are not actually there. I also think there maybe one or two more that we do dominate, Axs in there
I call this with AJ+ and TT+, this may change if I had more info on the player of course
AAroddersAA:
--- Quote from: GiMac on March 14, 2013, 12:13:02 PM ---
I might also point out that we have no information on the villain apart from the fact that he lost the previous hand in a fairly standard hand vs a short stack. So this assumption that he must be tilt shoving is flawed imho too. In fact something I often do is if I am dealt a monster immediately after losing a pot is to open shove to make it look tilty so someone calls me off with a marginal hand like erm lets see AJ? ;)
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Good point BUT
Whilst you should not assume it is a tilt shove you have to give credit to the fact it really looks like one and it is far more likely that it is than he has picked up a big hand. You factor this in when constructing your calling range.
Yes of course you should shove if you get AA after losing a hand like that as it looks like a tilt shove and yes people will and should (maybe) snap you off with AJ, that is why you do it.
But as I said above far more often it turns out to be exactly what it looks like a tilt shove.
Please post in more threads in this section.
dwh103:
--- Quote from: GiMac on March 14, 2013, 12:13:02 PM ---
I might also point out that we have no information on the villain apart from the fact that he lost the previous hand in a fairly standard hand vs a short stack. So this assumption that he must be tilt shoving is flawed imho too. In fact something I often do is if I am dealt a monster immediately after losing a pot is to open shove to make it look tilty so someone calls me off with a marginal hand like erm lets see AJ? ;)
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Absolutely 100% this. Only Leigh can confirm. There is no other evidence to suggest he"s pushing wider than a standard range (which may be a tiny bit wider than 11%, not wide enough to make calling a viable option unless a tiny +tive ROI is your aim).
It"s an 18BB shove so Villain isn"t even short.
Chipaccrual:
I don"t know the guy, but he posts on another forum. He"d been quite active in the chatbox talking to an observer about what was a good stack for Day 2 etc etc.
Here"s a quote from other forum after the event (Not that it has much relevance to this discussion) :-
--- Quote from: NEWY on March 11, 2013, 13:20:33 PM ---
--- Quote from: Pawprint on March 11, 2013, 10:29:52 AM ---
--- Quote from: NEWY on March 11, 2013, 00:51:46 AM ---
--- Quote from: Pawprint on March 11, 2013, 00:23:17 AM ---
--- Quote from: NEWY on March 11, 2013, 00:22:08 AM ---
I jus won biggish pot outplayin someone with K8 sooooted
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Yeah, wp ;)
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;whistle;
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I thought it was a bit of a tilty shove into the BB of the guy who had just spiked the ace against you, so thought my Ad Jd was in good shape. Hadn"t planned on you turning the flush.
Good luck on Sunday.
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Exactly as u said it. was defo tilt. If my 10"s held I was sailing thru so I prob dont play another hand. Unfortunate it was u on the end of my rage ;grr;. I wud of defo called with AJ sooooted in ur spot. Ty for being gud sport about the suckout and GL urself :cheers:
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