Poker Forum > Strategy
DTD Grand Prix Day 1a Decision
Chipaccrual:
--- Quote from: AAroddersAA on March 14, 2013, 12:22:12 PM ---
Best thread of the year so far
--- End quote ---
Should secure my APAT Awards Nomination for 2014 then ::)
PHIL_TC:
Agreeing that this is a great thread.. and with Rodders that people posting on here should post more often in the strategies section..
--- Quote from: Chipaccrual on March 14, 2013, 13:05:00 PM ---
--- Quote from: AAroddersAA on March 14, 2013, 12:22:12 PM ---
Best thread of the year so far
--- End quote ---
Should secure my APAT Awards Nomination for 2014 then ::)
--- End quote ---
p.s doesnt this thread fall under this season though Leigh.. :P x
p.p.s with regards to the hand I"m a dwell / sigh / FML style fold x
Chipaccrual:
--- Quote from: PHIL_TC on March 14, 2013, 13:34:25 PM ---
p.s doesnt this thread fall under this season though Leigh.. :P x
--- End quote ---
Good Point. STOP THE ENGRAVING !!!!!!!!!!!!
GiMac:
--- Quote from: AAroddersAA on March 14, 2013, 12:27:28 PM ---
--- Quote from: GiMac on March 14, 2013, 12:13:02 PM ---
I might also point out that we have no information on the villain apart from the fact that he lost the previous hand in a fairly standard hand vs a short stack. So this assumption that he must be tilt shoving is flawed imho too. In fact something I often do is if I am dealt a monster immediately after losing a pot is to open shove to make it look tilty so someone calls me off with a marginal hand like erm lets see AJ? ;)
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Good point BUT
Whilst you should not assume it is a tilt shove you have to give credit to the fact it really looks like one and it is far more likely that it is than he has picked up a big hand. You factor this in when constructing your calling range.
Yes of course you should shove if you get AA after losing a hand like that as it looks like a tilt shove and yes people will and should (maybe) snap you off with AJ, that is why you do it.
But as I said above far more often it turns out to be exactly what it looks like a tilt shove.
Please post in more threads in this section.
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Sure and thats why we have widened his possible range. But some people getting carried away saying he is almost certainly shoving any two cards, which is rarely the case with that size of stack.
pokerpops:
--- Quote from: AMRN on March 14, 2013, 09:23:43 AM ---
--- Quote from: david3103 on March 14, 2013, 09:19:33 AM ---
--- Quote from: dwh103 on March 13, 2013, 20:24:43 PM ---
--- Quote from: Chipaccrual on March 13, 2013, 10:28:03 AM ---
Question for those that are folding the hand in the OP.
What range of cards would I need to have to make it a call for you, or is it a case of being unable to put him on a range, and therefore the risk of losing that amount of chips makes it a fold unless i"ve got kings or aces ?
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Unless the villain has exhibited any tendencies otherwise, you should approach with a conservative mindset. Pushbot Spreadsheet http://www.mediafire.com/?l1zlilcyjoj is worth having a play round with.
You have to call 87.5k more into a 102k pot. If Villain is shoving:
Top 7.5% (88+, ATs+, AJo+, KQs) - AJs is a -cEV call
Top 11% (55+,A8s+,KQs,ATo+,KQo) - AJs is marginally +cEV (less than a 2% ROI on your chip investment)
Do you have any evidence/feeling to suggest Villain is shoving any wider? If yes, then you still need to consider the ICM implications - they always exist. And then you have the BB to act behind you. And your chip position is more than comfortable. It"s still a very easy fold for me.
Gordon"s calling range is about right against an 11% shove range, giving you a 15%+ cROI.
There is and has been so much written about push/fold, aggression etc that blindly shoving 10-20BBs has become ingrained and a habit in many players. The biggest leak around imo, even in decent players, is incorrectly valuing stack size.
Of course if +2% ROI is the best spot you think you can obtain because you"re a fish (;)) - call away. Though against a DTD field you"re definitely better than that!
--- End quote ---
Do you really think that Mr Tilty McTilt is shoving as tight as 11% here?
I agree that the decision is tight, but the problem with constructing ranges is that all too often in hand analysis threads it seems we construct a range that suits our view of the decision, rather than constructing a range and then seeing where that leads us.
In a vacuum, for an unknown, in a standard comp, no arguments. He should be around that 11% mark - I might actually lower that and take out 55/66/77
In this comp, in this moment with the dynamic of approaching the 10% mark/end of Day 1 and having a re-entry option? 11%?
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How wide do you think David? 15%? 20%? I suspect that even then, from a mathematical ICM standpoint, a call would still be relatively marginal (Hope Gordon will do the math on that though)
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15% is erring on the side of caution imo
but this is what it looks like vs that 15%
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
279,105,552 games 0.039 secs 7,156,552,615 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.930% 42.38% 03.55% 118282669 9911260.50 { 77+, A7s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QJo }
Hand 1: 54.070% 50.52% 03.55% 141000362 9911260.50 { AdJd }
My over-riding point is that I don"t believe we"re in a good enough position to be in chip-preservation mode and should be taking these spots. I"m aiming for 250k to take to day 2. I might slow down when there"s maybe two more to be eliminated.
If you showed me that it"s exactly 50/50 I"d take it.
Wouldn"t do the same on the FT bubble, but that"s nowhere near where we are.
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