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DTD Monte Carlo Day 1a Online Hand

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Chipaccrual:
Here"s a hand from last nights DTD Monte Carlo Day 1a (Online)

Notes on the interested parties.  Seat 2, steady player had a bit of banter with another player in the chatbox, but not been involved in many hands.  Seat 6, serial min raiser.  Have bet back over top a few times from the blinds, got a couple through, folded a couple.


Seat 1   33,307   SB
Seat 2   49,218   BB
Seat 3   62,117   
Seat 4   82,371   
Seat 5   86,803   
Seat 6   78,253   
Seat 7   57,350 (CHIPACCRUAL)  ad1 10d
Seat 8   119,212   
Seat 9   60,810   

Blinds are 400/800/100



Seat 6 raises to 2,000
I call 2,000
Seat 2 (BB) calls 2,000


Pot = 6,900
FLOP -  4h 5d 10s


Seat 2 (BB) checks
Seat 6 bets 4,400
I call 4,400
Seat 2 (BB) calls 4,400

Pot = 20,100
TURN -  2d

Seat 2 (BB) bets 3,200
Seat 6 raises to 11,500


Action on me.  What are you doing ?

Bigfella42:
What an interesting spot!

I think this is one of those pivotal moments you get in tournaments where you have to go with your read. The Villain has rased pre, c bet the flop and raised the turn. This could be an overpair and if he has two black kings, queens or jacks you are only 38% so you need to ask yourself if raising this particular player is going to push him off such a strong hand (would he fold one pair to a hefty raise?).

I don"t like flatting although others may disagree - if you miss on the river are you calling a 20k bet?

If he has a set, also possible, your in even worse shape at 25%.

A flush draw is unlikely and  Kd Qd is one of the few hands you are beating, apart from an outright bluff wich looks doubtful.

In addition we also have to think about seat 2 who hasn"t gone away yet and could be sat on a set himself.

At first glance my instinct was to say I"m not folding. I"ve got top pair, nut flush draw and a gutshot straight. The maths seems to say a fold is not terrible, and is probably the optimal play. I"m pretty sure I wouldn"t have folded though and would have been prepared to get it all in. But I think that would be a leak in the long term.

Look forward to hearing how this developed.

deanp27:
interesting point in the hand is the BBs small donk bet (3k into 20k) which makes me unsure what to do and sway towards a fold. Am at work at the mo so will give it some thought later but really want to go all in as i hate folding.

Flop obv fine - pre can be a 3bet or a peel i suppose.

AMRN:
There are arguments for all options, although I don"t like flatting with the SB still to act behind us.

For me, it"s either jam or a fold.......  question is, does the fact that it"s a £1k event rather than a $5 event influence the decision?   I suspect it might - if this were a $5 MTT, I reckon I would be jamming faster than a very fast thing..... but not so sure in this spot.  #scaredmoney

dwh103:
Think it"s probably safe to assume you"re behind. If you"ve run extremely well you have 17 outs, or approx 35% to improve by the river.

Not knowing how many of your outs are live (I"d guess long run not much more than half your outs will be live), it"s probably a sigh fold. Seat 6 is trying to tell you he has an overpair at the very least, add Seat 2 as a wildcard (turned straight, weirdly played set, draw trying to set its own price - who knows?).

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