Poker Forum > Strategy
DTD Monte Carlo Day 1a Online Hand
pokerpops:
The betting suggests we"re behind but it"s difficult to see precisely what we could be behind to here.
Give BB a mix of sets of fours and sixes, assuming he 3bets tens pre(?) plus some very very small chance of a straight? He"d have to have called to hit a gutshot to make it so it could only ever be diamonds and we have the Ad which limits him to 36dd
Seat 6 has the same set possibilities plus A10 not diamonds and over pairs
Take out the pairing cards and we"re left with seven diamond outs and maybe three threes? What are the other outs anyone?
Raise flop and fold to a re raise, get to the end as cheap as possible/ fold on turn I think
TheSnapper:
Immediately thought tptk, nfd and gssd, never folding ;D
making some assumptions to do some maths...
SB always folds
Seat 6 never folds
Seat 6 range of JJ+,55-44,ATs,A3s,KTs,ATo,A3o,KTo
we need to put 55350 in to win ~122k so we need ~45% to break even
versus the above range we have 43% but that goes up considerably to 55% if seat 6 can have QT & JT though I do think that"s unlikely.
Surprised but I think folding is correct.
MintTrav:
Isn"t there more to these tournament questions than just the maths of the hand?
We are a bit off the pace mid-tournament, though not critically. If we get it in and they fold, we are back up to speed with the field. Get in and win, we are well set. Get in and lose and our tournament is broken. If we fold now, we are pretty much as we were, off the pace. Flat call and miss and we drifting a bit far behind. Don"t we need to consider this as well as the percentages?
deanp27:
might also be worth considering its a re-entry tournament and that a decent % of the online runners might be flicking it in for another bullet if they lose.
I don"t think the guy raising the turn here has to be nutted, BB has donked out for like 1/6 pot so he may raise with a wider range which may mean he folds to a jam. I"m slightly worried about BB though, unless he is a donk.
What i do completely depends on what i have seen them do at the table during the tournament. Really tempted to jam and put in the chatbox "PLAYED IT LIKE A SET".
unfortunately though i think the chance of dominated flush draws being out there are fairly small. BB should never have diamonds unless he has 67/68/64dd after he overcalls flop and i imagine the OR might peel with hands like KQdd or the smaller diamond combos mentioned given he is getting an amazing price and you are still in the hand.
TheSnapper:
--- Quote from: MintTrav on April 19, 2013, 01:45:22 AM ---
Isn"t there more to these tournament questions than just the maths of the hand?
We are a bit off the pace mid-tournament, though not critically. If we get it in and they fold, we are back up to speed with the field. Get in and win, we are well set. Get in and lose and our tournament is broken. If we fold now, we are pretty much as we were, off the pace. Flat call and miss and we drifting a bit far behind. Don"t we need to consider this as well as the percentages?
--- End quote ---
Of course there"s more John, more maths ;D
Is this a straight satellite or an online day 1 from which you bring your chipstack into day 2?
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