Poker Forum > Strategy
Hand of the Day #2
KarmaDope:
Not the BB, the big stack. If we bust the tournament now we win about $3. If we dont, we can still win about $120. Our equity if he calls light is not as good as if he folds and we win the blinds uncontested or face the shortstacked BB HU.
Bigfella42:
Sorry I meant the big stack. Still don"t get it, but it must be me :D You"re saying that even if we knew we were ahead of the big stack pre flop, we are better off passing as he might get lucky and hit? On that basis would we ever play a hand?
KarmaDope:
--- Quote from: Bigfella42 on July 30, 2013, 22:10:28 PM ---
Sorry I meant the big stack. Still don"t get it, but it must be me :D You"re saying that even if we knew we were ahead of the big stack pre flop, we are better off passing as he might get lucky and hit? On that basis would we ever play a hand?
--- End quote ---
Nah, definitely not!
What I"m saying is that if we know the big stack is going to call with a lot of hands, we don"t win enough to justify the risk in ICM as chipEV does not equal $EV - the risk of losing all our chips and being eliminated from the tournament is more than what we get when he folds and we win the blinds.
If we know he folds a lot of hands but when he does call, we are dominated, we get him to fold enough times to make this a +EV play despite the fact that we invariably lose when he does call. Hence the silly thing of we want him to be a nit - our main target here is not to double up, it is to take the dead money with as little risk as possible.
(Don"t get me wrong, if I can see he has KT and he is going to call then I shove all day long!!)
Drewski:
Does anyone consider their M at this stage? It"s only 6.5 and aggression is key at this stage to make the finale table. So many other things to consider outside of the math like our table image, how tight the blinds have been? Have there been many light calls.
Personally I lean towards shove.
If you fold now, then later find you didn"t get many other good spots, would you look back at this hand and think you should have made your move?
AAroddersAA:
Great posts today Drewski. Please post more in this section.
I will try and respond to some of the points tomorrow.
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