Poker Forum > Strategy
Shove or take free flop Here?
hi_am_chris:
Sometimes we get called by a smaller pair too and when checking it"s going to be really hard to figure out our expectations as we don"t how often we are going to get paid off fully although obviously it helps that we have 3 people trying to hit the board. Also we don"t always win when hitting our set :\
Charlie44:
--- Quote from: hi_am_chris on September 08, 2013, 12:27:00 PM ---
Sometimes we get called by a smaller pair too and when checking it"s going to be really hard to figure out our expectations as we don"t how often we are going to get paid off fully although obviously it helps that we have 3 people trying to hit the board. Also we don"t always win when hitting our set :\
--- End quote ---
Agreed. I"ve tried to keep it simple, though I fully apreciate that by ignoring these possibilities it may be changing the outcome of best option.
dwh103:
--- Quote from: Charlie44 on September 08, 2013, 12:36:51 PM ---
--- Quote from: hi_am_chris on September 08, 2013, 12:27:00 PM ---
Sometimes we get called by a smaller pair too and when checking it"s going to be really hard to figure out our expectations as we don"t how often we are going to get paid off fully although obviously it helps that we have 3 people trying to hit the board. Also we don"t always win when hitting our set :\
--- End quote ---
Agreed. I"ve tried to keep it simple, though I fully apreciate that by ignoring these possibilities it may be changing the outcome of best option.
--- End quote ---
Your maths is mostly right, however the assumptions are definitely flawed. You can make numbers say pretty much what you want to - in your case the equity of checking, hitting a set and always doubling only just outdoes jamming and getting called only when we"re crushed. You"ve gone best case for checking and worst case for jamming.
You"re correct in that we"re fairly indifferent cEV wise if overs call or fold, so it"s best to analyse the limping and calling ranges and work out how often Villains will pass pre-flop.
- What limping range do you give them?
- What hands will they call with?
Santino67:
--- Quote from: AMRN on September 07, 2013, 16:22:59 PM ---
Unless you flop a set you"re never proceeding in this multi way hand post flop and likely to be giving up the chips you"ve invested..... i shove here to take what"s on offer in the pot, and happy to get called by overcards or underpairs .
--- End quote ---
+1 Get it in good and let the fockers suck out on you :D
Charlie44:
--- Quote from: dwh103 on September 08, 2013, 13:38:12 PM ---
Your maths is mostly right, however the assumptions are definitely flawed. You can make numbers say pretty much what you want to - in your case the equity of checking, hitting a set and always doubling only just outdoes jamming and getting called only when we"re crushed. You"ve gone best case for checking and worst case for jamming.
You"re correct in that we"re fairly indifferent cEV wise if overs call or fold, so it"s best to analyse the limping and calling ranges and work out how often Villains will pass pre-flop.
- What limping range do you give them?
- What hands will they call with?
--- End quote ---
Just to clarify I was not trying to prove or justify my earlier reasoning - I accept that some of my reasoning flawed and I don"t believe my figures by any means proves that checking is the best option. Just making the point that because pushing is +ev not necessarily the best option.
With the checking option we have of course ignored the reasonable possibility that we will win the pot without hitting a set on the flop e.g if it is checked to showdown, or checked flop and hit set on turn . This may conunteract the realtively overall small possibility of hitting our set and losing the hand.
If we consider the possibilty of a smaller pair calling our shove the ev is ((2155x2)+150)*80%-2055 = +1513. Won"t bore you with the maths but I make for pushing to be the preferred option, one of the oppos will have to have a small pair, limp and call a push more than 5% of the time. The likelihood of one of 3 people being dealt a lower pair is less than 10% and I"m getting bored with this now as I"m sure most of you are !!
Navigation
[0] Message Index
[#] Next page
[*] Previous page
Go to full version