Poker Forum > Strategy

Shove or take free flop Here?

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deanp27:
All in

dwh103:
Easy shove. It"s hard to find a lower risk spot to increase your stack by 15%.

Drewski:
I"m shoving this spot. Not only is it a good spot to add 15% to your stack, but its going to deter a few steals from your big blind for a couple of orbits too.

AAroddersAA:
Unless I have lost my counting skills I add 20% to my stack if they all fold. This makes it a clear shove right?

I also play quite well against their calling range.

Charlie44:
Had further thoughts abouts this -let"s do a little maths on the chips ev. Very early in tourney so we can use this as estimation of $ev.

If you and push and get called (assume bigger stack for simplicity) by an overpair then you will be winning a pot of 2155x2+150 on average 20% of the time and you will be putting in the rest of your stack 2055.. So ev = ((2155x2)+150)*20% - 2055 =-1193.

Called by 2 higher cards that becomes ((2155x2)+150)x 55% - 2055) = +393.

If we push and do not get called then we win the pot = +400.

So our expected ev is virtually the same whether we get called by higher 2 cards or everybody folds. So we do not need to estimate how often we get called by higher 2 cards. Lets assume worst case scenario we always get called by higher pair and never by lower pair.

The likelihood of a random hand holding a higher pair is (6x6)/  (50x49/2) = 2.93%. The trouble is of course that 3 oppos have already acted and difficult if not impossible to estimate likelihood that they are holding a higher pair. I think it unlikely they will be slow playing here. Lets assume for sake of arguement approx same as for a random hand. So lets assume that 10% chance that one of 3 oppos is holding bigger pair.

So we get overall expectation for pushing of :

(-1193x 10%) + ( 400 x 90%) = 240.7.


It is more difficult to the calculate the expectation of checking and trying to hit a set, and we have to make some assumptions. For the sake of argument let"s assume if we do not hit our set on the flop somebody will bet and we will fold. If we do make our set we will win the hand and the big stack will double us up. The likelihood of hitting our set on the flop is approx 12.5%.

So ev for this option is ((2155x2)+150-2055) x 12.5% = 300.6.

I know the assumptions are a very dubious and arguable on the latter option, but whilst pushing is +ev, checking and hoping for a set may be winning more on average, and is less variance. Quite happy to be  questioned on assumption or maths. At least I think thought provoking.

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