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JM 3 Barrels and allin on river from villain but does it make sense ?

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hi_am_chris:
Def raising the flop or Turn, don"t hate flatting the flop as it keeps bluffs in his range and lets him barrell the turn. Raise / call the tun if he has Aces or Queens it"s reload time. As played there are still bluffs in his range along with "value" hands that you beat.

AAroddersAA:
I am assuming no reads/notes here.

17/13 is a pretty tight player. I would guess a 3-bet range of about 4% based on these stats. This is basically TT+ and AQ+. It is a 3-bet from the SB to an LP raise though so we have to factor in he can be doing this a bit light. Think calling is just about fine, although I would not hate a fold.

He has lots of aces in his range making the flop a raise for me but I don"t mind calling either. Turn for me is an auto raise, I prefer to raise the flop as flatting the flop and raising the turn should set off alarm bells in most players heads (does not mean it does though). On the flop we can charge draws to see another card and get called by lot"s of made hands worse than ours.

I do think he has some flush draws in his range and the bet on the river is pretty nasty. It is just over pot size and it could be a bluff but I am going to disagree with the above and say bluff shoves on the river are rare in this game and there are therefore not many in his range. He at least has an ace, probably better as aces tends to check/call in this spot. You need to be good about one time in three, without reads I doubt we are, so fold is correct imo. I think I do fold this in game as well but it is so much harder than on PHA.

TheSnapper:

--- Quote from: AAroddersAA on October 29, 2013, 11:13:20 AM ---
I am assuming no reads/notes here.

This is basically TT+ and AQ+. It is a 3-bet from the SB to an LP raise though so we have to factor in he can be doing this a bit light. Think calling is just about fine, although I would not hate a fold.

I do think he has some flush draws in his range and the bet on the river is pretty nasty.


--- End quote ---


There are zero flushdraws in this range on this flop. You could make a small case for something like 7d6d-Td9d but that"s a pretty wide 3b range for this player. If villain can have suited connectors then he can also have 77 for a turned set.

All that said and as unlikely as it seems, we may be behind here,  ai river bluffs are rare at this level, even more so in a 3b pot. I suppose villain can overvalue AK with the Kd blocker.

Matt D:
Are you able to say 17/13 is tight after only 30 hands?

hi_am_chris:
Wouldn"t even call it insanely tight for full ring?

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