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Big $11 - Seemed Standard but I'm now not convinced

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poker_jason:
Seems standard - I figure villain is playing 15% and will call 60-70% of the time. These ranges added afterwards.

Figured at time call was 50/50. Thoughts please for all /any actions.

PokerStars Hand #107134701835: Tournament #814579996, $10+$1 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XLVI (25000/50000) - 2013/11/17 3:29:51 UTC [2013/11/16 22:29:51 ET]
Table "814579996 519" 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: hjgkih (1866389 in chips)
Seat 2: M.Roldan (1090246 in chips)
Seat 3: liv_hbk (4498404 in chips)
Seat 5: almeida0781 (3286501 in chips)
Seat 6: nightbully (788568 in chips)
Seat 7: FatLazyMofo (1984534 in chips)
Seat 8: David_Wain (1133556 in chips)
hjgkih: posts the ante 6250
M.Roldan: posts the ante 6250
liv_hbk: posts the ante 6250
almeida0781: posts the ante 6250
nightbully: posts the ante 6250
FatLazyMofo: posts the ante 6250
David_Wain: posts the ante 6250
nightbully: posts small blind 25000
FatLazyMofo: posts big blind 50000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to nightbully [As Ts]
David_Wain: folds
hjgkih: folds
M.Roldan: folds
liv_hbk: raises 50000 to 100000
almeida0781: folds
nightbully: raises 682318 to 782318 and is all-in
FatLazyMofo: folds
liv_hbk: calls 682318

AMRN:
I presume this is the final table? so this is a thinly veiled brag post, right? ;)

As the short stack 8 handed, with a

Charlie44:
Assuming your presumptions are correct I believe :

a) When he folds your stack will rise to approx 976K

b) when he calls and you win your stack will raise to  approx 1,658K.

c) When he calls and you lose you will be left with zero chips (obv).

When he calls with 9.75% of his range (65% x 15%) with ATs you will expect to win 42% of time per pokerstove.

You expected chips will therefore be (35% x 976K) + (65% x 42% x 1,658K) = 794K. Only a very marginal increase in your chips (about 1%). Taking ICM considerations into account its a fold for me. You still have 6 orbits of chips. So not totally desperate yet IMO. Better to wait for a good shoving spot rather than reshoving and hope others get knocked out in mean time.

If your assumptions about villain"s opening/calling range change obviously the decision may change.

Jon MW:

--- Quote from: Charlie44 on November 18, 2013, 10:32:37 AM ---
... Taking ICM considerations into account its a fold for me....

--- End quote ---


Wouldn"t the payout structure be necessary to know the ICM considerations?

Given what I"d expect the payout to be like I"d go on the side of shoving.

Your chip stack is too low and the hand is too good to open fold. And if you call then fold on the flop you"ve just lost a big chunk of chips; all the other factors mentioned before I think makes it the right move.

poker_jason:
Thanks for the responses so far.

Its not a thinly veiled brag and unfortunately not a FT (14 players remaining) I"m 14th and have 3 - 5 stacks ahead from the 1m - 1.6m range.

Structure is standard stars pay jumps so 13-15 is approx., $400, 11-12 $500, 10 - $700 then up to $15k for 1st.

ICM wise - I think we can ignore as I need to at least double up before ICM becomes "significant".

F/E is interesting because I think I have some but it is going to be very player, and situational dependent (i.e. Late position raiser).

Call is definitely worst play here.

Interesting that we have two opposing views:
Standard View is we should gamble/flip here (how happy am I when I win - this thread doesn"t exists!)
Player Dependent View (and after the fact) suggest a better spot may open up - i.e. open shove into 1,2, 7, and 8.

I"m don"t think either way is entirely right/wrong, I can live with the decision - but I think the fold was marginally the better option here but only because of the player.

Further option are 3-bet call shove, 3-bet call shove flop, i.e. raise to 250K/275K?

Still interested in your thoughts.....

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