Poker Forum > Strategy
Big $11 - Seemed Standard but I'm now not convinced
noble1:
--- Quote ---I figure villain is playing 15% and will call 60-70% of the time
--- End quote ---
going by these numbers and by cEV you need 53% equity to break even..
[above calc is on villain calling 60% of the time and the big blind behind only re-shoving with QQ+ AKs]
so cEV wise your shoving range imo would be JJ+ AKs and AQs at a push, ICM $ev would call for tighter...
right click. select image in new tab and magnify....
mporter123:
Villain is never calling 60%-70% of the time though surely? I think that"s way off, need more reads though. We have plenty of fold equity and we want to gun for the top few spots.
He should be opening really wide given his stack size and people will be nitting up trying to get to the final table.
Unless we think he has been especially nitty, we need to take these spots and shove. Would need to be a maniac to feel comfortable 3b calling though.
poker_jason:
--- Quote from: mporter123 on November 18, 2013, 16:14:05 PM ---
Villain is never calling 60%-70% of the time though surely? I think that"s way off, need more reads though. We have plenty of fold equity and we want to gun for the top few spots.
He should be opening really wide given his stack size and people will be nitting up trying to get to the final table.
Unless we think he has been especially nitty, we need to take these spots and shove. Would need to be a maniac to feel comfortable 3b calling though.
--- End quote ---
Appreciate the comments.
You"d think! 15% seemed generous for this player (FT big pay day mentality) possible playing tighter but probably not much. I can"t say for certain as I don"t use tracking software. And of course if his range is tighter his calling percentage should increase also.
Thanks for the info Noble1.
I like the shove here against Seat 1 - 100% of the time as his range was much wider. However I think I should have folded rather than the "standard" shove in this spot.
Good luck all and hope this gives pause for thought..... even after 8 hours play.
mporter123:
Sorry I misread the OP - if we really do think he is only opening 15% then its a fold. Would have to be really certain of this though.
I was working to the assumption that villain would be opening Ax, K10+, all pairs, some suited connectors. That would be my standard range in this sort of spot as a chip leader.
Tending towards aggression in these sorts of spots can never be bad. Nice score anyway.
AMRN:
15% is pretty tight given that stack sizes and tournament situation, and to make me fold this hand in this spot, I would need to be very sure that he really is opening that tight.
A 15% range would look something like { 77+, A7s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QJo }, however if he is playing his stack and situation well, I would expect to see something more like { 22+,A2s+,K8s+,Q8s+,J9s+,A2o+,K9o+,Q9o+,JTo }, which is around 30%.
ATs has approx 50% against the 15% range, and 58% against the 30% range. Noble"s calculator indicates that 54% is required to make the call against the narrower range..... we aren"t that far off.
Given that a double up is urgently required if we are to have a realistic chance at the $15k for the win, I just don"t think we should be ignoring spots like this.
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