Poker Forum > Strategy
Big $11 - Seemed Standard but I'm now not convinced
TheSnapper:
--- Quote from: AMRN on November 18, 2013, 17:39:27 PM ---
15% is pretty tight given that stack sizes and tournament situation, and to make me fold this hand in this spot, I would need to be very sure that he really is opening that tight.
A 15% range would look something like { 77+, A7s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QJo }, however if he is playing his stack and situation well, I would expect to see something more like { 22+,A2s+,K8s+,Q8s+,J9s+,A2o+,K9o+,Q9o+,JTo }, which is around 30%.
ATs has approx 50% against the 15% range, and 58% against the 30% range. Noble"s calculator indicates that 54% is required to make the call against the narrower range..... we aren"t that far off.
Given that a double up is urgently required if we are to have a realistic chance at the $15k for the win, I just don"t think we should be ignoring spots like this.
--- End quote ---
I think this is most likely close enough to not matter too much either way, think what you might do with AJs in this spot.
As for having 58%, yes we do have that versus a 30% opening range but villains calling range will not be 30%.
Jon MW:
--- Quote from: TheSnapper on November 18, 2013, 17:48:41 PM ---
--- Quote from: AMRN on November 18, 2013, 17:39:27 PM ---
15% is pretty tight given that stack sizes and tournament situation, and to make me fold this hand in this spot, I would need to be very sure that he really is opening that tight.
A 15% range would look something like { 77+, A7s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QJo }, however if he is playing his stack and situation well, I would expect to see something more like { 22+,A2s+,K8s+,Q8s+,J9s+,A2o+,K9o+,Q9o+,JTo }, which is around 30%.
ATs has approx 50% against the 15% range, and 58% against the 30% range. Noble"s calculator indicates that 54% is required to make the call against the narrower range..... we aren"t that far off.
Given that a double up is urgently required if we are to have a realistic chance at the $15k for the win, I just don"t think we should be ignoring spots like this.
--- End quote ---
I think this is most likely close enough to not matter too much either way, think what you might do with AJs in this spot.
As for having 58%, yes we do have that versus a 30% opening range but villains calling range will not be 30%.
--- End quote ---
This is what"s important - people are really keen to show exact precise figures a lot of time but all of this theory is just a model of how the game works; it"s not a precise interpretation.
Game theory maths only works precisely in a theoretical model using assumptions - once you put in variables like not actually knowing what the villains raising or calling range really is it is much more appropriate to be thinking of it all in terms of "about", "approximately" and "close enough".
poker_jason:
--- Quote ---
I think this is most likely close enough to not matter too much either way, think what you might do with AJs in this spot.
--- End quote ---
As I understand AJs does so much better against villain"s range than A10 - less chance of JJ, Dominates all J combinations, overpair to 10"s.
Great response all - thanks.
TheSnapper:
--- Quote from: poker_jason on November 18, 2013, 19:57:12 PM ---
--- Quote ---
I think this is most likely close enough to not matter too much either way, think what you might do with AJs in this spot.
--- End quote ---
As I understand AJs does so much better against villain"s range than A10 - less chance of JJ, Dominates all J combinations, overpair to 10"s.
Great response all - thanks.
--- End quote ---
How much better ? would you consider it a marginal decision to jam AJs in this same spot?
poker_jason:
--- Quote from: TheSnapper on November 18, 2013, 20:18:37 PM ---
--- Quote from: poker_jason on November 18, 2013, 19:57:12 PM ---
--- Quote ---
I think this is most likely close enough to not matter too much either way, think what you might do with AJs in this spot.
--- End quote ---
As I understand AJs does so much better against villain"s range than A10 - less chance of JJ, Dominates all J combinations, overpair to 10"s.
Great response all - thanks.
--- End quote ---
How much better ? would you consider it a marginal decision to jam AJs in this same spot?
--- End quote ---
lol - can I retract the "so much"? I can"t really quantify this mathematically without poker stoving it or something - I think from experience/general maths the AJ is an easier Jam generally in this type of spot - especially when we get a villian with much looser calling tendencies as we dominate/flip more hands. This shifts odds in our favour against many hand match up"s which I can only conclude is positive??
I don"t usually discuss or work on a lot of strategy stuff especially ranges/maths so I may have some serious deficiencies in this area of my game. As the general pool of players gets stronger these marginal decisions will be the difference.
Against this particular villain in this particular hand AJ & A10 were probably not much different relatively- just the experience of the player. Was hoping for bad call, fold or flip when called.
Would love to be corrected on my understanding of AJ/A10 differences here if I"m wide of the mark here.
For fun, this is how to bust the same tourney the following night when trapping an Aggressive Player:
PokerStars Hand #107187998484: Tournament #814579997, $10+$1 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XXVIII (2000/4000) - 2013/11/18 1:23:11 UTC [2013/11/17 20:23:11 ET] Table "814579997 814" 9-max Seat #7 is the button Seat 1: victorfrutal (217908 in chips) Seat 2: nightbully (129621 in chips) Seat 3: Simuk1 (158913 in chips) Seat 4: RaVeN_cs (242560 in chips) Seat 5: ZaraNorbi (162501 in chips) Seat 6: liv_hbk (75874 in chips) Seat 7: Akifart (168022 in chips) Seat 8: J_Sniper11 (162965 in chips) Seat 9: MrMo19 (228258 in chips)
victorfrutal: posts the ante 500
nightbully: posts the ante 500
Simuk1: posts the ante 500
RaVeN_cs: posts the ante 500
ZaraNorbi: posts the ante 500
liv_hbk: posts the ante 500
Akifart: posts the ante 500
J_Sniper11: posts the ante 500
MrMo19: posts the ante 500
J_Sniper11: posts small blind 2000
MrMo19: posts big blind 4000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to nightbully [Qc As]
victorfrutal: folds
nightbully: raises 4500 to 8500
Simuk1: folds
RaVeN_cs: folds
ZaraNorbi: folds
liv_hbk: folds
Akifart: raises 11399 to 19899
J_Sniper11: folds
MrMo19: folds
nightbully: calls 11399
*** FLOP *** [2d 9s Qh]
nightbully: checks
Akifart: bets 16598
nightbully: calls 16598
*** TURN *** [2d 9s Qh] [2h]
nightbully: checks
Akifart: checks
*** RIVER *** [2d 9s Qh 2h] [8h]
nightbully: bets 24000
Akifart: raises 107025 to 131025 and is all-in
nightbully: calls 68624 and is all-in
Uncalled bet (38401) returned to Akifart
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Akifart: shows [5h 7h] (a flush, Queen high)
nightbully: shows [Qc As] (two pair, Queens and Deuces) Akifart collected 268742 from pot nightbully finished the tournament in 330th place
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