Poker Forum > Strategy
MTT question...
AMRN:
--- Quote from: Jon MW on July 10, 2008, 14:07:47 PM ---
--- Quote from: hi_am_chris on July 10, 2008, 14:02:26 PM ---
... I think 9 handed its not uncommon to run into a bigger pair.
--- End quote ---
It"s not uncommon because of the quantity of hands that get dealt.
But isn"t it about 16/1 that you get dealt a pocket pair?
If that isn"t exact, the probability is still higher than 9/1.
i.e. If you are dealt a pocket pair it is likely that no one else has been dealt one - let alone a higher one.
--- End quote ---
20/52 to hit either a T, J, Q, K or A. Then 3/51 to hit the pairing card....
(52/20) x (51/3) = 44/1 to be up against a pair that dominates 99. With only 8 players to get through, those odds work really well for me.
hi_am_chris:
Are those the right odds for gala and the pokerroom network tho ... ;D
Jon MW:
--- Quote from: AMRN on July 10, 2008, 14:22:30 PM ---
--- Quote from: Jon MW on July 10, 2008, 14:07:47 PM ---
--- Quote from: hi_am_chris on July 10, 2008, 14:02:26 PM ---
... I think 9 handed its not uncommon to run into a bigger pair.
--- End quote ---
It"s not uncommon because of the quantity of hands that get dealt.
But isn"t it about 16/1 that you get dealt a pocket pair?
If that isn"t exact, the probability is still higher than 9/1.
i.e. If you are dealt a pocket pair it is likely that no one else has been dealt one - let alone a higher one.
--- End quote ---
20/52 to hit either a T, J, Q, K or A. Then 3/51 to hit the pairing card....
(52/20) x (51/3) = 44/1 to be up against a pair that dominates 99. With only 8 players to get through, those odds work really well for me.
--- End quote ---
And as well as shoving - this is also the odds that you are up against a hand that dominates you if you limp with 99.
But given the wide range of peoples shoving hands and the short stacks all round - there is a much higher chance that you will get a hand on your table to shove after you limp.
Obviously there is a risk that you will pick up a load of limpers and nobody will raise, there is a risk that even if you only had one limper they might hit top pair, there is a risk that a higher pair will be dealt (like in this case), and there is a risk that any hands you are beating pre flop outdraw you - but I think in this kind of scenario then an opportunity to gamble for a double up against one player, or for the chip lead against many players is too good an opportunity to miss.
But shoving and taking the blinds is the safe option if you"re too risk averse. :)
AMRN:
--- Quote from: hi_am_chris on July 10, 2008, 14:25:45 PM ---
Are those the right odds for gala and the pokerroom network tho ... ;D
--- End quote ---
LOL nice one!!
AMRN:
--- Quote from: Jon MW on July 10, 2008, 14:29:50 PM ---
--- Quote from: AMRN on July 10, 2008, 14:22:30 PM ---
--- Quote from: Jon MW on July 10, 2008, 14:07:47 PM ---
--- Quote from: hi_am_chris on July 10, 2008, 14:02:26 PM ---
... I think 9 handed its not uncommon to run into a bigger pair.
--- End quote ---
It"s not uncommon because of the quantity of hands that get dealt.
But isn"t it about 16/1 that you get dealt a pocket pair?
If that isn"t exact, the probability is still higher than 9/1.
i.e. If you are dealt a pocket pair it is likely that no one else has been dealt one - let alone a higher one.
--- End quote ---
20/52 to hit either a T, J, Q, K or A. Then 3/51 to hit the pairing card....
(52/20) x (51/3) = 44/1 to be up against a pair that dominates 99. With only 8 players to get through, those odds work really well for me.
--- End quote ---
And as well as shoving - this is also the odds that you are up against a hand that dominates you if you limp with 99.
But given the wide range of peoples shoving hands and the short stacks all round - there is a much higher chance that you will get a hand on your table to shove after you limp.
Obviously there is a risk that you will pick up a load of limpers and nobody will raise, there is a risk that even if you only had one limper they might hit top pair, there is a risk that a higher pair will be dealt (like in this case), and there is a risk that any hands you are beating pre flop outdraw you - but I think in this kind of scenario then an opportunity to gamble for a double up against one player, or for the chip lead against many players is too good an opportunity to miss.
But shoving and taking the blinds is the safe option if you"re too risk averse. :)
--- End quote ---
BUT, shoving rather than limping will give you another chance of winning - people might fold. A shove here could get rid of anything up to AJ for example...... but a limp could potentially put you into a flop against overcards. what would you do if you limped and everyone folded round to the BB.... flop then comes T 8 4.... and he shoves? he might shove there with any two cards and you would have a tough decision. Personally I would prefer to take the decision and the play out of the hand preflop with such a marginal hand
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