Poker Forum > Strategy
MTT question...
Jon MW:
--- Quote from: AMRN on July 10, 2008, 14:35:17 PM ---
--- Quote from: Jon MW on July 10, 2008, 14:29:50 PM ---
--- Quote from: AMRN on July 10, 2008, 14:22:30 PM ---
--- Quote from: Jon MW on July 10, 2008, 14:07:47 PM ---
--- Quote from: hi_am_chris on July 10, 2008, 14:02:26 PM ---
... I think 9 handed its not uncommon to run into a bigger pair.
--- End quote ---
It"s not uncommon because of the quantity of hands that get dealt.
But isn"t it about 16/1 that you get dealt a pocket pair?
If that isn"t exact, the probability is still higher than 9/1.
i.e. If you are dealt a pocket pair it is likely that no one else has been dealt one - let alone a higher one.
--- End quote ---
20/52 to hit either a T, J, Q, K or A. Then 3/51 to hit the pairing card....
(52/20) x (51/3) = 44/1 to be up against a pair that dominates 99. With only 8 players to get through, those odds work really well for me.
--- End quote ---
And as well as shoving - this is also the odds that you are up against a hand that dominates you if you limp with 99.
But given the wide range of peoples shoving hands and the short stacks all round - there is a much higher chance that you will get a hand on your table to shove after you limp.
Obviously there is a risk that you will pick up a load of limpers and nobody will raise, there is a risk that even if you only had one limper they might hit top pair, there is a risk that a higher pair will be dealt (like in this case), and there is a risk that any hands you are beating pre flop outdraw you - but I think in this kind of scenario then an opportunity to gamble for a double up against one player, or for the chip lead against many players is too good an opportunity to miss.
But shoving and taking the blinds is the safe option if you"re too risk averse. :)
--- End quote ---
BUT, shoving rather than limping will give you another chance of winning - people might fold. A shove here could get rid of anything up to AJ for example...... but a limp could potentially put you into a flop against overcards. what would you do if you limped and everyone folded round to the BB.... flop then comes T 8 4.... and he shoves? he might shove there with any two cards and you would have a tough decision. Personally I would prefer to take the decision and the play out of the hand preflop with such a marginal hand
--- End quote ---
Yes - good spot - I did know what the worst case scenario was (and if I was the big blind I would be shoving on any flop).
But the main point is what I"m arguing against - and was Kinboshi"s point.
Yes it would be good to get the blinds - but 99 really isn"t that bad.
(in the absence of the big blind shoving post flop)
(a) I think a shove from a later position player is a fairly good proposition.
Everybody is short stacked and you"ve shown weakness by limping.
The other stacks range from 2.5bb to 20bb, if you are dealt something like A4 you might not be too interested if you are up at the 20bb range - but I think you would be if you were down around the 2.5 - 4 range.
I think players with the lower stack sizes are going to be looking at any ace, any pair and possibly any 2 court cards (if you"re lucky).
(b) Even if you get a limper or 2 - they are likely to miss the flop - shove all in, what are they going to do?
Either they make a completely stupid call with nothing, they think you"ve got nothing and make a slightly stupid call with something like AK (so you"re miles ahead) or they make a sensible fold.
(c) Even if they hit the flop - how confident are they going to be with their bottom or second pair when you push all in.
i.e. The chances of them hitting top pair or two pair - very, very small. If they have a pocket pair, what are the chances they would have limped after you rather than raised or shoved pre flop? Small chance that they might limp with a baby pair and hit trips - but all these things combined - still very small.
(d) If you get 3 or 4 all ins pre flop.
Yes you are likely to lose the hand - but you are still likely to be the favourite (bearing in mind how unlikely it is that somebody will be dealt a higher pocket pair)
and if you win you have the tournament chip lead or up around it.
(e) If you get a lot limpers pre flop.
In this case I think you misjudged the early limp, because if you had shoved I think you would have got a caller - and it"s a double up you need.
Naturally you can misjudge things like this, but as I"ve freely admitted - this limp, shove (or limp, call a shove) play - is a bit of a gamble.
But I think it"s a reasonable gamble to make.
kinboshi:
You haven"t shown weakness by limping - it"s just weak. If I"ve got JT in the BB, you"re giving me a chance to see a flop on the free. I know I"m probably behind someone who"ll limp UTG with only 5xBB, but I"ll be able to push on a favourable flop and make you make a mistake.
Push with 99:
1. They fold, you take the not insignificant blinds.
2. They call with overcards - you"re ahead and have a chance to double up.
3. They call with worse than overcards, and you have a better chance of doubling up.
4. They call with an overpair. You might out draw them.
Except for scenario 4, you"re making them make a mistake. Don"t give them the chance to play "correctly" and instead make you make a mistake.
imo.
Jon MW:
But that only applies to the big blind.
It completely ignores the chances of someone shoving after you, and it completely ignores the fact that whilst it would be good for the big blind to shove post flop on any flop - people mainly won"t do it when they"ve completely missed (which they"re likely to) and/or they"re holding rags (which they"re likely to) - it"s all well and good saying, "if I"m holding JT in the BB" - but you"re much more likely to be holding 10,4 or J5 or similar.
Most of the time in that scenario (IMO) the big blind won"t shove post flop.
Jon MW:
By the way that theory I"ve encapsulated above is also why it"s so hard for Artificial Intelligence to use Game Theory to crack poker - Game Theory assumes your opponent will always make the best move, but a lot of the time in poker they won"t.
Jon MW:
--- Quote from: Kinboshi on July 10, 2008, 15:41:58 PM ---
...
1. They fold, you take the not insignificant blinds.
...
--- End quote ---
I knew there was something I was missing.
I was discounting just picking up the blinds - I don"t care if I just take the blinds, but I"ve only just thought about why.
If you pick up the blinds, you increase your stack by 25% - a sizeable proportion.
However you still only have 7.5 big blinds.
It doesn"t matter what the average stack is, or how much you"ve just increased your stack by -the fact is you are still very short stacked and this is not a good thing.
I"m not going to dislike any time where I increase my stack by a quarter - but at this stage of a tournament with those chip stacks and blinds - I am going to be happy to take a risk to double up. You won"t be in great shape with 12 big blinds - but it will be disproportionately better than if you had 7.5.
And if you don"t get knocked out against more than one player - you"ll be among the chip leaders.
That is where I want to be at that stage of a tournament - among the chip leaders - or out.
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