Poker Forum > Strategy
strategy question - how would you play this hand ??
TopPair2Pair:
--- Quote from: noble1 on September 03, 2008, 20:35:23 PM ---
i had discounted AQ from my range for him when i bet the turn which he check called.
--- End quote ---
I dont understand. Why?
noble1:
--- Quote from: Toppietwo on September 04, 2008, 02:44:53 AM ---
--- Quote from: noble1 on September 03, 2008, 20:35:23 PM ---
i had discounted AQ from my range for him when i bet the turn which he check called.
--- End quote ---
I dont understand. Why?
--- End quote ---
i had discounted it because i had not seen any evidence that he would call just 2 over cards to 3/4 size bet on the turn.
It happens in 5c10c 10c20c 25c50c but from then on there are very few players that check call 2 over cards out of position to 3/4 pot bet on the turn, maybe bluff by leading in this situation or a check raise bluff , these are ways i"d play any 2 cards if i"d put my opponent on a semi-bluff which had missed on the turn.[if i were in his position with a read of some sort]
Remember if he had AQo and called the turn figuring he had 4 live jacks 3 queens and 3 aces and that i,ve got a ten with no ace or queen kicker, he his only % 9 to win thats roughly 10to1 not a good call... If he figured me for a under pair say 55 to 88 he his only %13 to win which is 6.7to1 .. If you pokerstove all the combination of hands my opponent could put me on,,, all he his beating is a missed flush draw,so he"s out of position with a pot that is getting large with AQo getting odds of 2.4to1 , do you still think he would call ?? i know i said he was bad but he"s not that bad :)
and like i said in my above piece , the turn helped me define a better hand range for him when he just check called.
If i saw someone make plays with just 2 over cards in a situation like this , at this particular limit,i would make sure i was sitting at there table every time they played :) :)
the turn bet for me is better than a check on this texture type board because the bet %50 of the time will make him fold [maybe more] and also if i were to check the turn it would help him to put me on a missed flush draw looking for a free card on the river , which would put me in a tricky situation if he leads out on the river [i have defined his hand on the turn with a bet, if i was to check the turn and he leads out on river ,, with less info it would be harder for me to narrow his range]
That is why i prefer to bet the turn in this situation because if he had called the flop with over cards like AK , AQ or AJ i dont want to give them a free card on the turn,a strong bet will make them fold.
biffa85:
I understand your comments regarding a turn bet, but what would you have done if he had check/raised allin on the turn, something that he could have done with a openender as a semibluff??? You feel sick probably...... ;D
noble1:
Posted by: biffa85
Insert Quote
I understand your comments regarding a turn bet, but what would you have done if he had check/raised allin on the turn, something that he could have done with a openender as a semibluff??? You feel sick probably...... Grin
i would be thrilled if he did because that call to a open ender equity wise is a profitable call :)
remember his hand was QhJd .............
Qh Jd on the turn %13.63
Ks Qs on the turn %86.36
if he had-
JTo he would be %61.36 me %38.63
if he check raised all in it would be 143 to call a 258 pot , the odds are 1.8to1 i would need %35 equity to make it a correct call KQs in this situation is %38 so long term a small profit to be had
if he had 2 pair say 9To its not good %77 to %22
if he had a set its the same scenario as 2 pair
an over pair to the board i"m getting a good price to call still
an under pair is a 60 / 40 again correct price to call
but this was a read dependant situation as i knew he was calling raises to much and going to showdowns light, also the turn bet if i was against a solid player who check raised me here , to be honest i would fold,but like i said this was a player read situation if this player check raised all in i would call due to the fact he had shown down light quite a few times..
please remember i put my read on the player in the 1st post if i had said he was a solid TAG this hand would be played out differently.
biffa85:
Yes knowing his hand certainly shows a call to be profitable, but would you really have been thrilled to call if he had shoved the turn?
It"s easy to say it"s a profitable after the event once you know his cards, but during the hand all you had at the turn was a gut str8, flush draw and two overs. I"m not saying you couldn"t call here, I"m just saying your bet on the turn opened you up to the possibility of being check/raised, and that if you were it wouldn"t be a nice situation to put yourself in.
using your comments to define his hand ranges of 66+,A9s+,K9s,Q10s+,J10s+,A9o+K9o+,Q10o+,J10o+
you get an equity of 43.7% (poker stove)
so you bet $35 into a pot of $45 making the pot $80 and he raises you allin for a total of $178, so it"s a pot of $258 and it"s $143 to call.
43.7% of the pot $258 = $112.75, which is less then the amount you have to risk making this a -ev play in calling his shove on the turn.
My brain seems to have stopped working, so can"t seem to put this in odds terms, I"m sure better brains than I could.
If my workings are flawed apologies, would be keen to get feed back on these workings, whether confirming them or showing where I"ve got it wrong.
;D
Navigation
[0] Message Index
[#] Next page
[*] Previous page
Go to full version