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strategy question - how would you play this hand ??

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TopPair2Pair:
I am not going to comment regarding the +ev in the long run as will just generate random inaccurate waffle! ie my concerns would be around the BB holding a KJ/J8/AQ hitting the Q on the river. Would therefore like to know if he has a history of check raising and what he check raises and when, if I were going to waffle inaccurately which seems to have begun"eth!

If he had any of the above hands minus AQ would he have played it any differently?

I would also factor in what I believe the BB perspective regarding my table image at the time (+ other sessions participated in) and what he thinks I could have.

kinboshi:
I certainly don"t think he"s holding a pair TT+ here. 

Otherwise, I don"t see anything wrong with how you played it, although I do like Swinebag"s shove on the river as a value bet that gets called often enough to make it +EV.

I hate the way your opponent played the hand though.

Zanshin:
I would have played the hand as you did up to the river but then I would have checked (I am a nit though ;))

The bet of $50 on the river will have
most worse hands folding (no help)
few worse hands calling (great news)
very few better hands folding (great if they do)
few better hands calling (bad news)
most better hands raising or pushing (very bad news)

When the push comes you now have a pot of approx $308 with $93 for you to call... what would you have done at that point? Cut your losses and fold or convince yourself that the call is worthwhile?

If he had raised another $50 you are almost committed to call with what will most likely be the worst hand.

Sorry typed all this a bit quickly so may not make sense (like most of my play :-\)

Mikeyboy9361:
I play mainly cash and as such would agree with the way you played it, other than you had to be scared of him hitting Q on the river holding AQ ( within his range?), having checked all the way he probably would still check again to trap you. There fore I would probably have checked behind him and be happy with a decent pot. The way your opponent played it was pretty terrible, but having an up and down draw on the river he was never going to lay it down at that stage.
It is always difficult to comment on these hands after the event, cos at the end of the day you play the man as you have pegged him.

noble1:
i had discounted AQ from my range for him when i bet the turn which he check called.
He was fishy for 1/2 nl but not bad enough to call only 5 possible outs [wish he was or i"d have a hey day :) ]

my read -
The big blind is your average fishy player. He calls too much pre-flop and calls too many streets with dominated hands.

my reasons for my bets on each street -
Well, this is an easy bet for me [against this type of player]. After taking the lead pre-flop and flopping the second nut flush draw and two overcards, i have a strong hand. This bet is a continuation bet/strong semi-bluff.My bet has a split goal - either way is good. If i bet and he folds, i win. If i bet and he calls, i have a strong hand and i"m building a pot should i hit.
TURN -
Now i have the option of checking or betting. I did pick up three more outs with the 9h. Now any jack also gives me a straight.
If i check the turn -
By checking, i gain a free shot at my 12 outs to a near nut hand as well as six more outs to top pair. However, if i check and the river blanks, i have a very small chance of winning the pot. So what checking accomplishes is a free shot at my many outs.
If i bet the turn -
Now the betting argument. Against a ten i have 18 outs. My equity in this hand is very strong.
My opponent could also be calling with a wide range of hands on the flop. He could have a mid pocket pair as well as a ten or maybe even overcards. He probably does not have an overpair.
This means i have 18 clear outs. I can also win this pot with a bet on the turn. If my opponent was calling the flop really light, he"ll likely fold to the turn bet. My goal in betting the turn is the exact same as when i bet the flop. Plus i don"t mind if he calls because of my outs and i really don"t mind if he folds.
The river -
Should i bet or check through? Well, to make a properly informed decision i must look at what my opponent"s range consists of. I know my opponent is fairly bad. His flop call could mean anything. His turn call defines his range a little better.
He most likely has some kind of ten (AT-JT), JJ, a flush draw or Q-J for a missed straight draw. Now i know what a check would accomplish. It will let me show down my hand and see if it is best.
Now, if i bet, i have to decide whether i"m betting to make a better hand fold (not likely) or to make a worse hand call. Obviously my bet will not make any better hand fold. So i had to decide if a worse hand will call.
Since i"ve determined my opponent is a bit of a calling station, i surmise he"ll call with a worse hand. My goal, therefore, is betting for value,but i dont think the all in is an option just in case he has played QTo or 9To badly.
The range i put him on are - ATo KTo QTo [but i"d expect him to lead turn or the river,so i just about discount it] JTo JJ maybe,a missed flush draw, QJo [he"d call 2 over cards to a flop bet,picked up a straight draw on the turn, T8o T9 [again i"d expect him to lead turn or river with this though,so i discount it]
Hands like KsJs or QsTs are out as i hold the King and Queen. KJo is out as i dont think he"d call the turn bet with it.So with the likely hands i think he has he wont call a huge bet but will call a value bet.
So the hand may have started out as a semi-bluff but by the end turned into a value bet.
My thoughts on the turn as being +ev in the long run are that %50 of the  time if he folds i will be up in the long run if i play it this way.

What do you think ? flawed logic or ok ?

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