Poker Forum > Strategy
For Your Amusement
Jon MW:
--- Quote from: noble1 on October 11, 2008, 04:31:36 AM ---
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right jonmw did you notice the $50 pot $5 to call equals 10 to 1 NOT 9 to 1
i can understand your logic as many people mis-understand this,maybe its bad info passed along or to many trips to the bookies.
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--- End quote ---
Yes, you"re right - all this time I"ve been playing slightly too cautiously as I"ve been using the fraction [call]/[existing pot] - rather than the ratio [existing pot]:[Call]
The name pot odds should really have given me the clue :)
This is good because it means I"ll be able to loosen my game up a bit :)
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Jon MW:
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But this is where I got the 19% figure from - as you point out the pot odds should actually be 15.95%.
So my call is even more clear cut
With the outs I thought I had I had 15 outs so a 34% chance of winning (with a flush draw)
Therefore I only need a 50% chance that he would fold to a shove on the river if a third heart came. Whereas I think the chance was more like 90%.
The reason he called on the river was because he was playing with the assumption I was on a flush draw - if he had thought about it, my raise on the river didn"t fit in with the flush draw - so it"s possible that he would still have called, but the probability still easily beats the 50% needed.
I didn"t factor into account this probability that he would still call at the time, because I was sure he would fold if a third heart came - but (a) the figures still hold up anyway, and (b) I could still fold and coast past the bubble.
Jon MW:
--- Quote from: noble1 on October 11, 2008, 04:31:36 AM ---
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as for your hand ranges you was putting him on , you discount nearly every reasonable hand i suggest he would logically raise on the turn with after the weak lead on the flop,, So i ask myself what on earth was you putting him on ???
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--- End quote ---
Already covered this.
I discount the reasonable hands that an average player in this circumstance might be on - but I wasn"t playing a generic player, I was playing a specific player who I had played with over a great deal of hands. So I didn"t need to generalise.
I"ve already said
When he checked on the turn I put him on a flush draw
when he check raised I put him on a high ace.
EDIT: the reason why it was so specific is because he was barely playing one hand a round - he wasn"t playing many hands, he had a pretty small range of playable ones.
And obviously, as already suggested, he could have been slowplaying a small set all along, for example. But (a) I think he would protect against the flush draw more aggressively and (b) meh, good luck to him if he was.
noble1:
So do you still maintain you made a correct read on your opponent and played this situation well ??
--- Quote from: Jon MW on October 11, 2008, 13:02:37 PM ---
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But this is where I got the 19% figure from - as you point out the pot odds should actually be 15.95%.
So my call is even more clear cut
With the outs I thought I had I had 15 outs so a 34% chance of winning (with a flush draw)
Therefore I only need a 50% chance that he would fold to a shove on the river if a third heart came. Whereas I think the chance was more like 90%.
The reason he called on the river was because he was playing with the assumption I was on a flush draw - if he had thought about it, my raise on the river didn"t fit in with the flush draw - so it"s possible that he would still have called, but the probability still easily beats the 50% needed.
I didn"t factor into account this probability that he would still call at the time, because I was sure he would fold if a third heart came - but (a) the figures still hold up anyway, and (b) I could still fold and coast past the bubble.
--- End quote ---
if you are assuming that your opponent has put you on a flush draw WHY does he only min raise ???
The answer imo is that either -
1.He has a read on your betting patterns and he knows you have no flush draw hence the min raise.
2.He his a clueless idiot who is only playing his hand,and that even if a heart comes on the river he will call you no matter what.Thus your attempt to factor in , HIM folding , into your play is a waste of time....
-1 POINT for trying to bluff a bad player/situation
total score so far = minus 1.5 out of ten :o
[nice attempt by jonMW to explain his plays but he needs to pick his spots and the right kind of player more carefully for this play to have any future success]
Jon MW:
--- Quote from: noble1 on October 11, 2008, 13:46:27 PM ---
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if you are assuming that your opponent has put you on a flush draw WHY does he only min raise ???
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--- End quote ---
This was slightly incongruous as up to this point he had been good at protecting his hands with good bets and perhaps should have been a further clue that he had more than a good pair of aces which I didn"t pick up on.
But even in hindsight I"m still confident that if a third heart had come on the river he would have checked, I would have shoved and he would have folded.
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