Poker Forum > Strategy
Whats your line here?
Roscopiko:
--- Quote from: Jon MW on October 06, 2008, 16:20:11 PM ---
--- Quote from: Swinebag22 on October 06, 2008, 15:55:48 PM ---
"stop and go" from SB is a bit of an overused play IMO ...
--- End quote ---
Funny you should say that, as I don"t really see it being used that much (i.e. I don"t often see a blind call and shove on the flop).
Personally I think you have enough chips to not need the double up, the extra chips you get if this works is enough to give you some opportunity for further blind and ante stealing.
However this scenario in particular though I firstly want a squeeze from the big blind to then get all my chips in and hope for more than a double up.
Although I might have worded it back to front, the stop and go is my back up in case I don"t get the squeeze play.
I would expect the shove post flop to get respect because I don"t see stop and go"s that much. But if it was a rag board and they thought I had nothing, I"m in good shape. If it has a single high card then they are more likely to have missed than hit. If there was more than one - I"d be a bit stuck (gloss over that quickly).
In summary: I think this scenario in particular would be a smooth call - with plenty of opportunities to gain a fair amount of chips.
--- End quote ---
Nice response and that is the theory that was going through my mind as I exited the cardroom with not a cat in sight.
REvans84:
--- Quote from: Jon MW on October 06, 2008, 16:20:11 PM ---
--- Quote from: Swinebag22 on October 06, 2008, 15:55:48 PM ---
"stop and go" from SB is a bit of an overused play IMO ...
--- End quote ---
Personally I think you have enough chips to not need the double up, the extra chips you get if this works is enough to give you some opportunity for further blind and ante stealing.
--- End quote ---
Your M is only 8. You need a double up and fast. This is a perfect spot.
The villan has been opening alot of pots so your way ahead of his range. If he folds you gain a quarter of your stack.
kinboshi:
--- Quote from: Jon MW on October 06, 2008, 15:36:37 PM ---
--- Quote from: Kinboshi on October 06, 2008, 15:14:30 PM ---
Shove for me. Especially with your stack size (and your opponents" stacks).
Stop and go works as well possibly. But the shove is the better option for me with JJ. Just under 70% of the time there"s going to be an overcard on the board - and against two opponents you"re likely to be behind and potentially "going" when you need to be "stopping".
--- End quote ---
Where"d you get the 70% from?
--- End quote ---
Sorry, was thinking about TT. Was a bit busy in the office today.
Zanshin:
I'd play it similar to what's already been suggested:
Player A - 61k - 3rd to act - Hand range: wide
Player B - 60k - SB - Hand JJ
Player C - 150k - BB - Hand range: wide
Player A"s 9k (3xBB) bet - If he has done this quite often it's tempting to put him on a very wide range but I'm the suspicious type. If he has been getting re-raised and having to lay down I'd be thinking he'll be tightening up his range by now especially as he's getting short stacked and will be looking to get all his chips in soon.
Player C - to push or not to push - if I was last to act (despite what I'm thinking about his Player A's tightening range) I'd push. My M is only around 8 and this looks like a good spot.
With Player C still to act and with him having shown a liking for the squeeze play I'd revise this to flat calling A's bet. If C raises or pushes A will then define his hand for us. If he folds I'll play for my stack against C as his range in this spot should certainly be wide enough.
What if A pushes?
A has now defined his hand as one he is willing to risk his tournament life with by calling when he has previously shown a willingness to fold to the re-raise so I'm putting him on a range of any pair to 66, AK, AQ, AJ, A10, KQ (although I'm thinking he is tightening up he's starting range he may also be getting frustrated). If C has a completely random hand then I would be about 47% to win the hand against both players. If C's range is similar to A's then that would be around 41%
I'd be putting in my last 51k to a pot of 128k (excuse my maths if I've got this all wrong) so I'm still calling.
If C doesn't try the Squeeze play and only calls then I'll be facing a 31k pot with only a 51k stack......
How many overcards would anyone need on the flop to give up on the hand?
I'll admit to being a nit so any Ace and I'm done with the hand, any K or Q............ well now there's a decision....... I"m sure I read somewhere that you should avoid plays that will give you difficult decisions on later streets...... Oops :-[
How about anyone else if you took the line above - how would you deal with various flops?
noble1:
good question about a situation in a mtt in which many players now shove all in.You must find the right balance and the best measure of aggression.How to find it? This is a matter of taste, experience and skill.
Now that the shove all in is so common because of online poker , players ranges of calling them are much wider now and that it is now at the point where a re-raise or a stop/go play have more chance of success of taking down a pot,especially in your situation 15 to 22 big blinds.[yourself and your opponent] although you sacrifice the chance of doubling up you can still gain chips and increased chances of survival,a concept that many young aggressive players are failing to appreciate in multi table tournys.
I posted a similar question to yours on cgm poker [russian poker forum] and a certain Hasuling replied [good player, some of you might know him as Ivan Demidov]
and he favoured smooth call pre , pot bet on flop [favourable flop for Jacks] His reasoning being that if your opponent has over cards he will most likely fold them due to stack size,we got into the debate if the opponent was to go all in etc etc that ,that would be a read dependent call.
Just a quick one on the maths -
QQ chances of over cards on the flop - there are 50 unseen cards and we are choosing 3 from this 50 for the flop therefore there are c(50,3)=50!3!47!=19600 flops.How many of these would contain an ace or a king? the easiest way to work this out is to count the flops not containing them and subtract it from 19600.
Of the 50 unseen cards 42 remain disallowing aces and kings, so that works out like this - 42!3!39!=11480 flops with no ace or king
19600-11480=8120 flops will contain an ace or king
Therefore the probability of a over card on the flop is - 8120/19600=0.414 41%
in case anyone asks ! the exclamation mark means FACTORIAL
EG - the ! [factorial] of 3 would look like without the exclamation mark 1x2x3=6
just out of intrest the factorial of 50 unseen cards 50! is = 30414093201713378043612608166064768844377641568960512000000000000
oh and
--- Quote from: HaworthBantam on October 06, 2008, 16:05:03 PM ---
22 - 100%
33 - 99%
44 - 99%
55 - 98%
66 - 96%
77 - 92%
88 - 97%
99 - 80%
TT - 70%
JJ - 57%
QQ - 41%
KK - 27%
AA - 0%
For the mathematicians.... http://www.math.sfu.ca/~alspach/comp34/
--- End quote ---
kk wrong its 22%
99 is 79%
88 is 86%
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